I want to get into a bit of a routine with the MNF previews. A look back at last night > Game preview and bet(s) > Quick look at next week lines and leans.
Look back
A good night last night, hitting all three on the spread for the second week in a row, a nice 6/1 winner to get things started and once again 2 of 3 on the totals, that’s a little frustrating but can’t complain too much.
Hit 2 of the 4 props including the bigger stake on Calvin Ridley which came in before half time iirc, Swift ended the night with 60 rec. yards so smashed his 18.5 line and one to keep an eye on in future weeks as the Lions don’t seem to be able to hold on to a lead, no score from him though. The Taylor rec. yards all went to Mo Alie-Cox, only 9 through the air for him, they loaded him up on the ground which was always the risk, but I thought 3 or 4 catches would get his line, he only got 2. Marquise Brown yards was annoying, had 42 by half time then they stopped throwing the ball.
3 out of 4 on the TD bets – Cook, Taylor and James Robinson all scoring, Firkser missing out, but at 10/1 I’m probably going to keep on him. Jonnu Smith got another 2 TDs for them, they like hitting the TEs in the redzone. Scratch that, no RZ targets for him this season, I’ll give him a miss.
So not a bad weekend at all finishing with 23 points profit.
Saints -4 @ Raiders: 48.5
A LOT of money is coming in for the Raiders, I started writing this around 1630 (before getting distracted) and the line was 5.5 then. It’s dropped a lot, and available at 3.5 on Skybet now. (I do 365 prices)
The Saints opened the season with a big win against their main divisional rivals, the Buccs, while the Raiders scraped to a win against a poor Panthers team. Could well be their only win in the first half of the season as they’ve got a really tough schedule.
This is the opening of the death star in Vegas, an amazing looking stadium and it’s a real shame there won’t be fans in the ground as I’m sure it would have been one hell of a spectacle, but Covid sucks and here we are.
Saints
The Saints come into this one without their talisman as the record-setting Michael Thomas misses out with a high ankle sprain which I’d imagine will mean he misses next week vs the Packers too, although it sounds like he’ll try and play through it which isn’t easy as Saquon found last year. BUT he’s out tonight so everyone shifts up a spot, Jared Cook and Emmanuel Sanders become the names to looks for while Alvin Kamara will probably get an increase in receptions as well.
Tre’quan Smith probably becomes the WR3, he only had 1 target last week and Deonte Harris probably mixes in that position with him as well. I do think though the biggest bumps will be for Cook, Kamara and Sanders who led the team in targets last week anyway. 7,8 and 5 respectively. Sanders caught 2 of his 4 redzone targets numbers which led the team as well.
Their opener saw Murray have 15 carries to Kamara’s 12, so it’s a bit of a surprise to me that Murray is set at 8.5 carries tonight. I think they’ll be in control throughout and with Kamara probably getting more in the passing game I think Murray in theory should get more on the ground. He’s at 31.5 rushing yards in most places too, I like the attempts and yards for Latavius Murray tonight.
I think Drew Brees has lost his arm strength, he can’t throw downfield now and losing Thomas will be a hit for him. He loves 5-10 yard throws and I’m sure he’ll continue with them to Sanders, Cook and Kamara. Taysom Hill is always worth a peek at the prices for score anytime, he gets on the field more than he probably should do.
Prices are all very short for anytime TDs. Even Harris who was 22/1 last I checked is now into 13/2. Maybe Adam Trautman the rookie TE will see the field? 20/1 for him but unfortunately I think I’ll be staying away from all of them at the odds.
Raiders
The Raiders and especially Josh Jacobs looked great on offense last week against the Panthers but they’re a team I was expecting to be poor on defense so it wasn’t too much of a shock that they put up over 30 points in that game.
It was the first full Raiders game I’ve watched for a while and I was surprised at quite how good Josh Jacobs looked, he was brilliant in that one, 140 combined yards and 3 TDs for him. He won’t have it that easy in this one as it’s a far better defense but he’ll obviously still be the main man for them. He was finally used more in the passing game as well with Devontae Booker and Jalen Richard only receiving 4 targets between them.
They only tried to use three guys in that opener, Jacobs, Ruggs and Waller who got most of the targets, 6,5 and 8 targets for those three. Ruggs looked really good before exiting the game with a knee and he’s listed as questionable for tonight, so if he does play I’d expect he’ll be limited to an extent. It means the likes of Bryan Edwards who played the most snaps of any WR on offense last week and Hunter Renfrow will likely get more of the ball tonight. I liked Edwards coming into that game and it was frustrating that he only saw 1 target, at least he caught it. But Nelson Agholar came in and got the one passing TD for them last week. Jason Witten is still alive as well.
Derek Carr did what Derek Carr does, average passing, keep it safe, and don’t give the ball away. Averaged 8 yards per attempt and got himself a solid passer rating. Derek Carr.
Summary
Even with the injury to Thomas I’ve got to think the Saints win this one. They’re one of the more complete teams in the league on both sides of the ball and even though their week 2 record over the last 5 years is terrible winning just 1 of the 5 over that span… they BUCCed the trend last week and I don’t see why they won’t this.
I won’t be touching the spread or the total though, my distrust in Brees’ abilities puts me off of them most weeks in fairness.
Bets
- Sanders o4.5 receptions – 2.2 (WillHill)
- Kamara and Jacobs anytime – 4/1 (Skybet boost)
- Latavius Murray o8.5 rushing attempts – 2.06 (888)
Easily find the best priced prop line by signing up to our prop comparison sheet – info at nflprops.bet
Early lines for next week.
Dolphins +3 @ Jaguars: 47.5
Bears +3.5 @ Falcons: 48
Bengals +6 @ Eagles: 46.5
Texans +3.5 @ Steelers: 45
Raiders +6.5 @ Patriots: 46.5
Rams +2 @ Bills: 47.5
49ers -4 @ Giants: 40.5
Titans -2.5 @ Vikings: 47.5
Washington +7 @ Browns: 44
Panthers +7 @ Chargers: 44
Jets +10 @ Colts: 43.5
Cowboys +4.5 @ Seahawks: 56
Lions +5.5 @ Cardinals: 54.5
Buccaneers -6 @ Broncos: 43.5
Packers +3.5 @ Saints: 51
Chiefs +3.5 @ Ravens: 53
First look, the Jags, Giants (watch for team news, Jimmy G might be out), Titans, Chiefs would be the side I’m looking.
Totals – Over on Bengals v Eagles, 49ers v Giants, Bears v Falcons; Under on Steelers and Vikings games would be the sides I’d be looking at.
TONS of injuries this week, CmcC out for 2-4 weeks, Barkley out for the year, Sutton out for the year, Parris Campbell probably the year. Mostert and Jimmy G both left the game for the 49ers, Drew Lock missed the end of it for the Broncos. There’s probably more but they’re the ones off the top of my head.
Good Luck tonight!
TouchdownTips 
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