A dismal Monday night betting performance shamed the overall good weekend a little as I completely fudged on my preview for the Saints v Raiders game. The money came in fairly late for the Raiders and it was spot on. Maybe Drew Brees has a noodle arm and his time is done.
Only two Thursday night games so far, they usually favour the home-team, this year, both home teams have won, Chiefs covered, the Browns didn’t but should have done, the total has gone over on both.
Dolphins (+3) @ Jags; 48.5
Spread the same, total up 1 point from Monday night.
FACIAL HAIR FACE-OFF! – Tonight could be the night we find out whether a beard is better than a moustache… the two QBs have been chatting about it in the week –
“The moustaches versus the beard. … I think the beard is a cooler look,” Fitzpatrick said. “I think guys that grow moustaches a lot of times have patchy sides for their beards so they just stick with the moustache.”
“I’ll let [his mustache] speak for itself,” Minshew said. “I think I’ve shown I can grow a beard with no patchy sides. But, you know, I’m going to have respect for my elders, especially when they’re much, much elder. Be respectful.”
The Dolphins come into this at 0-2 after a solid defeat in New England and in fairness a decent performance against the Bills which could have been a win had Byron Jones stayed healthy, but alas, he did not and Noah Igbinoghene was victimised by Josh Allen and his receiving corps in replacement and it looks like Jones will miss out tonight.
The Beard. Ryan Fitzpatrick remains the starting QB for the ‘fins and he’s been fine, he’s been trypical Fitz really. 3 INTs vs the Patriots while they were chasing the game (may as well try and get a TD instead of playing it safe) and then a 100+ passer rating with 328 yards and 2 TDs in that Bills game. He’ll be fine tonight, the Jags defense hasn’t been good so far so they should be able to score easily enough.
They don’t have much of a rushing attack so far this season and despite signing Jordan Howard and trading for Matt Breida they have tended towards Myles Gaskin who had 13 touches for 82 yards on Sunday (7 carries, 6 receptions) after the same amount in the first game (9 carries, 4 receptions) – For some reason they obviously seem to want to see if they’ve got something with him and in fairness, 6.6 and 4.4 per carry isn’t exactly bad. Breida also had 7 carries this week with similar success while Howard seems to be solely the short yardage back with 5 of their 9 carries in the red zone and 2 TDs from them forming the most part of his 13 carries for 11 yards so far this season…
Davante Parker played on Sunday despite it seeming like he’d miss with injury so I’d assume he’ll be healthier today. He formed a good relationship with Fitz last year which hasn’t been quite so successful so far with more options in the passing game, 100 yards on the year for him so far. Preston Williams hasn’t done a whole lot so far either on his return from injury, although being used mainly as a downfield threat so he is getting tougher targets on the whole. It was Isaiah Ford who led the wide receivers in targets and receptions at the weekend finishing with 7 from 9 for 76 yards, whether that continues or not, I don’t know he only had 2 receptions in the opener but they do seem to be targeting him a lot.
The leading receiver for them at the weekend, and one I was expecting to do well for them this year was Mike Gesicki who took advantage of the Bills having some injuries at LB. He had 8 receptions for 130 yards and a TD taking him to 6 TDs in his last 8 games for the Dolphins. He plays largely in the slot and is athletic enough to get open. The Jags do actually have a fairly good LB group, but did allow Jonnu Smith to score twice at the weekend.
Defensively, it’s…. not great despite having the highest paid CB pairing in the league. Obviously only two games, against two probably 9+ win teams, but they’re 32 against the pass and 31 against the run according to DVOA.
The ‘tash. I had a decent conversation on the Gridiron Gents podcast regarding Mr. Minshew and I came to the conclusion he’s probably actually a mildly decent QB. That’s actually an improvement on what I thought of him before the season started. He gets a lot of attention on social media for his tash, his mullet and his general persona. That had me thinking that that was all he was, but it turns out he’s quite fun to watch as well. 19/20 in week one, and 30 of 45 this week for 339 yards and 3 TDs for the second week running. He’s mobile and he’s accurate enough as well.
There has been a lot of hype around DJ Chark over the summer after he formed a good relathionship with Gardner finishing last year just over 1,000 yards and 8 TDs, he did lead the team in yardage on Sunday and has caught all 7 of his targets so far this year. He is officially questionable for this game, it sounds like he’ll play – NOPE, HE IS OUT, A BUMP FOR CONLEY AND SHENAULT, but they have been targeting other players more frequently so far. Keelan Cole leads the team in targets with 12 in their two games, he’s hauled in 11 of them and scored 2 TDs with them, one in each game. Chris Conley had a lot of targets after a quiet opener while rookie Laviska Shenault has had a couple of decent games to open his career, used in the run and passing game he’s an exciting one to watch.
Tyler Eifert was someone I was looking at late in drafts this year, his big season came when Jay Gruden (Jags OC) was OC in Cincinnati and it looks like he’s trying to use him in the redzone where he was very dangerous in Cinci. He’s only caught 1 of his 3 redzone targets, it was a TD though and those targets lead the team. The Irishman James O’Shaughnessy got some play on Sunday as well.
James Robinson has looked surprisingly good in his two games as the starting RB, showing that they were correct for cutting Leonard Fournette before the start of the season, he had over 100 yards and a score against the Titans and 16 carries in each game so far this season as well as adding a few reception as well. Chris Thompson was expected to be the third down back having done well when healthy in Washington under Gruden but hasn’t had as much as expected but did find the end zone on Sunday.
The Jags defense has been decimated since their run to the AFC Championship game a few years back, they rank 31st vs the pass so far. Josh Allen had a good debut season although hasn’t put up any counting stats so far this year and Myles Jack is the one survivor from that AFC team.
So basically neither team can defend the pass, neither are very good at stopping the run, both have exciting QBs who make plays… This should, in theory be quite an exciting game to watch… so cue a 16-19 borefest.
Tash vs Beard. As a bearded 37 year old myself I’d love to take Fitz to pull out the win for the Dolphins here, but I don’t see it.
I think the Jags win this one and probably cover the spread, with the total probably still going over although it is getting a little high now.
I’ll have a bit on the Skybet boost, I can’t turn down 20/1 on both teams to score in every quarter. For the record last season the Dolphins scored every qtr in 4 games, conceded every qtr in 6, while the Jags scored every quarter in 4, conceded in 5; Both teams had 1 game last season where both teams scored in every quarter – The Jags v Titans game on Sunday had both scoring every qtr, the Dolphins v Bills had the Bills miss in the third… Basically it’s not frequent, but it’s probably worth a go at 20/1.
- Myles Gaskin o2.5 receptions – 1.83 (Skybet)
- Keelan Cole anytime TD – 3.5 (Skybet)
- Brandon Wright o1.5 Extra points made – 1.80 (WillHill)
Weird one, that final bet, but with Josh Lambo on IR the Jaguars kicked tonight will be Brandon Wright. He’s currently 1.80 to kick o1.5 extra point. – He kicked 104 of 108 in college and the Jags have scored 3 and 4 TDs in their two games so far. The odds may well move (it was 1.91 earlier) But I’m on at the 4/5 (1.80) odds so will record it on the P/L sheet. – Credit to @paulsingh22 for this one.
Good Luck with whatever you’re on.
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