A frustrating Monday and Thursday wipes out some hard-won profit from the weekend, Monday was plain wrong, but I’m filing Thursday night in the “tough beat” column. Brandon Wright, the kicker injured himself when kicking, only scored 1 of his 2 PAT’s, should have had another chance but Conley was missed when wide open for a TD.
Myles Gaskin receptions flew in though, that was a crazy low line, his carry line was 9.5 too, he had 22 carries and 5 receptions.
Keelan Cole? No excuses there. I’d say DJ Chark going out might have hurt him. I don’t know.
ANYWAY, on to Sunday night.
As last week, general rule of thumb is to back the 0-2 team vs the 2-0 team. History says if you lose the first three games your season is pretty much done. This year is a little different with the extra playoff spot in each conference, but only 3.4% of teams starting 0-3 since 1980 have reached the playoffs – 6 from 176. The Houston Texans were the last team to do it in 2018.
Bears +3 @ Falcons: 47
Fucking Trubisky. The Bears have won 2 games this year, Trubisky owns the Lions so that wasn’t much of a shock, they got out to a big lead vs the Giants last week then allowed them to come back without Saquon. David Montgomery has played surprisingly well averaging 5 yards per carry so far this year. The passing game amazingly hasn’t been terrible although Allen Robinson would be expected to be more a part of it having only 8 receptions through two week. Anthony Miller has been OK in the slot and rookie Darnell Mooney has caught at 6 of the targets sent his way including a score last week.
Falcons have allowed the #1 QB and NFC player of the week in each of their games so far with Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott achieving that moniker for the Seahawks and Cowboys respectively. Matt Ryan will throw for 300+ yards, that seems inevitable. They took a risk on Todd Gurley at RB and I’m not sure that’s paying off at the moment, they were up 20 points in the first quarter last week, perfect game script for Gurley and he averaged 3 ypc. They mixed in Ito and Brian Hill as well.
Julio is questionable for tonight with a hamstring injury which “cost him a TD” last week. I’d imagine he will play, he always does, but it won’t be good for him. Calvin Ridley has taken the step this year with over 100 yards and 2 TDs in each game so far. Russell Gage should have had a TD pass to his name with that Julio drop, he’s been playing well this year with another 6 catches last week and a score.
- Got to take the Falcons to cover
- Lean under on the total
Bengals +4.5 @ Eagles: 47.5
Both of these teams are 0-2, one was expected to be, the other not so much. The Bengals and Joe Burrow have done well to come back in their two games, he threw 61 passes last week, converted 5 fourth downs and threw no interceptions, for a rookie that’s impressive. It’s also been a frustrating watch, they’ve been half a yard from some huge games and even higher scores.
Drew Sample had 7 of the 11 receptions by a tight end in week 2 against the Browns, the majority coming after CJ Uzomah blew his achilles then pushed forward for a first down. The Bengals as a team had 5 receptions by the tight end position in week 1, 12 in week 2 and Joey B used it a lot at LSU in college. The Eagles have given up 9 receptions and 4 TDs to tight ends in their 2 games so far, 1 to Logan Thomas and a hat-trick to Tyler HigBEAST last week. He’s obviously someone I’m looking at this week. AJ Green is over 2/1 again and I’m still tempted, he’s had 22 targets this season! TWENTY TWO and caught 8 of them. It will click eventually, it will be beautiful and I’ll shout in Rob Grimwoods face.
Miles Sanders played 78% of snaps last week, 77% of the teams rushing attempts, and 36% of the teams total yardage last week, it’s fair to say they waited for him to get healthy before letting him return and he should have a good game against a Bengals team who gave up 215 yards on the ground to the Browns (In fairness the Browns have the best duo in the league by some way but still) They lost Jalen Reagor to a UCL injury, so they’re down to Desean Jackson leading the WR group with Greg Ward I guess? More likely that they’ll just feed the tight ends though and Dallas Goedert seems to be the main man there this season.
The Eagles haven’t dealt well with pressure up front, they probably won’t have much of it in this one, the Bengals have been terrible at getting pressure so far, so that’s a big plus for them this week. I think it’s Sanders, Ertz and Goedert this week.
- I don’t think it’s a homer pick but I think the Bengals cover and might win outright
- Over the total, I think this could be 60+ points.
Texans +4 @ Steelers: 45
The Texan pissed off someone at HQ to start with the Chiefs, Ravens and now the Steelers – The Steelers have supplied the most QB pressures in the league so far while the Texans have allowed the most. This could be a long night for Deshaun Watson. Will Fuller put up a goose egg last week, Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb got the yardage, but not enough to challenge the Ravens. They’ll do well to get much going this week, although Jeff Driskel put up points on the Steelers defense last week, so they could do something. David Johnson had a good debut, 3 yards per carry, but the gamescript wasn’t good for him.
THE STEELERS OFFENSE IS BACK! Get fucked. BIG BEN IS AMAZING AGAIN, really? He had 15 minutes to throw a pass last week and looped it straight to an open defender in the endzone who dropped a sitter. THEY’VE DONE IT AGAIN WITH CHASE CLAYPOOL, THEY’RE THE ONLY TEAM WHO CAN DRAFT RECEIVERS! Blatant OPI on his TD catch, but some teams are allowed to do that, some aren’t. – I’m not actually this bitter… am I? Hmmm, maybe. The media hype does piss me off, Hanzus has them as the #5 team in the league after beating a possible #1 pick and a Broncos team without their QB and WR1. Well done them.
Diontae Johnson looks like he’s the #1 in Pitt now though catching 14 of his 23 targets this season, he’s only had 1 target in the redzone though (although the team as a whole has only thrown 4 passes in the final 20) Juju has caught 13 of his 14 targets, and Chase Claypool looks like he’s edging out James Washington already, he’s a big bastard.
TJ Watt had 2.5 sacks last week against Denver. He was my picks for DPOY before the season and he looks good.
- Steelers win and cover
- Lean to the over
Raiders +6 @ Patriots: 47
The Raiders are 2-0 coming into this one after an impressive win against the Saints on Monday night. They play old school football, heavy sets, establishing the run and it’s worked very well so with with Josh Jacobs sitting on 52 carries so far, 7 receptions as they move to use him more in the passing game. He got a hat-trick in the opener and his presence basically set up two of their TDs on Monday. They’re without Henry Ruggs tonight through injury, so maybe more for Edwards? Renfrow? Agholar? They spread the ball around, 12 Raiders players had a target on Monday, so it’s tough to nail anyone down other than Waller.
Bill Belichick said this week that the league hasn’t seen someone like Darren Waller for a long time, it may make him a marked man against the Pats this week though so be wary on his player props
Cam Newton has 2 rushing TDs in each game so far this year and leads the team in rushing with 122 yards. Sony Michel has 56 yards. It looks like they’ll be without James White after the terrible car crash which took his Father and left his Mother in intensive care.
Cam has been good in the passing game as well, seemingly increasing in confidence when throwing to N’Keal Harry who is getting shorter targets while Julian Edelman is being used downfield more, his 179 yards last week was the highest of his career. Signed from Arizona over the summer, Damiere Byrd is getting a lot of the ball as well, and a good one to look for on props if you can find a line.
- Short travel week for the Raiders, take the Pats win, probably cover
- Hmm, no lean on total, a sway to the under
Rams +2 @ Bills: 46.5
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This should be a cracker and it’s one I’ve not been able to work out. The Bills have beaten the Jets and Dolphins, should have scored far more against both. While the Rams should have lost vs the Cowboys and comfortably beat a battered Eagles team. Both are 2-0, I just can’t figure who deserves it more.
The Rams have looked pretty good on offense without a settled backfield. That might be forced on them tonight though with Malcolm Brown having had finger surgery and Cam Akers out with a rib injury. It should be a lot of Darrell Henderson who led the team with 81 yards from 12 carries and a TD last week. Robert Woods took an end around to the house from the 1 yard line last week too. Over 36.5 rush yards for Henderon seems good to me.
Tyler Higbee took all the TDs last week and he and Kupp should do well tonight against a Bills team who have conceded a lot of yards to the slot this year (115 to Crowder, 130 to Gesicki (plays mostly in the slot)) So I like the look of Kupp going over his yards tonight. I would expected Robert Woods to get the tough assignment of being covered by Tre’d White which limits my thoughts on what he’ll be able to do down the field.
Josh Allen leads fantasy QBs so far this year, he threw for the most yards of his career in week 1 then topped that by 100 or so in week two with 417 and 4 TDs against a poor dolphins team. They’ve built well around him and Stefon Diggs seems to have settled in well, 8 for 153 and a Touch last week for him. Diggs vs Ramsey will be a hell of a matchup to watch this week, it probably means John Brown will get more of the ball, he’s had 70+ and a TD both weeks so far and his line is around 50 yards, I’ll happily take the over on that.
Zack Moss is out which should mean more for Devin Singletary who’s had to share carries with him, but in reality probably means more Josh Allen running the ball. He’s basically their goal-line back as well.
First real test for both of these teams and it’s been a bone of contention in the RZ chat group. It’s not one I’ll be taking on the spread, although now I think about it, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it over the total. A lot of player props I like here though, Brown (yards and receptions o3.5 at 1.83 on skybet), Henderson, Kupp over his yards.
- I think the Rams win
- Over the total.
49ers -3.5 @ Giants: 43
They’re dead Dave. Everybody is dead Dave. EVERYBODY. IS. FUCKING. DEAD. DAVE.
Poor 49ers, they lost Jimmy G, Nick Bosa, Solomon Thomas, Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman all for at least this week with Bosa and Thomas out for the whole season on this very field last week and now the survivors have to face the music and take to the same grass again this week. That’s going to be some serious PTSD.
Nick Mullens starts under center, Shanahan did a good job with him at QB a couple of years back and they reportedly refused calls to trade him over the summer so they obviously respect him as a backup.
McKinnon has had 10% of their targets so far this season although Brandon Aiyuk received most of Mullens targets when he came in last week, over 2.5 receptions isn’t well priced but should happen, Mckinnon should get more on the ground this week, but Big Jeff Wilson will probably the goal-line back and generally when he gets snaps he scores so I’m looking at him anytime and possibly 2+ in this one. McKinnon is listed at 58.5 yards now (PP and 365). I’d think under on him but this team is capable of busting off big runs
The Giants didn’t escape the injury bug last week, their main man Saquon Barkley doing his ACL ruling him out for the season, they brought in Devonta Freeman on a 1 year deal so he’ll be looking to impress to hopefully get a better deal next season. I’ve got to think he’ll get most of the carries over Wayne Gallman while Deon Lewis will probably retain his position as the pass catching back, Lewis rushing yards at 36.5, probably take under
It was the first time Daniel Jones all of his offensive weapons, it lasted less than a quarter. He’s not been bad considering.
Not a whole lot to say on this one, it’s going to be weird with all the injuries. Money has come in on the Giants, they’re down to 3 point dogs now from the 6.5 point opener.
- Can’t take the Giants +3, lean to 49ers at that line
- Lean over.
Titans -3 @ Vikings: 50
The Titans surely couldn’t keep up their ridiculous redzone efficiency for a second year could they? Yup, they can. 6 of 7 RZ visits have been TDs so far, most of them to the tight end position. Jonnu Smith has 3 TDs already, Mycole Pruitt the other.
Derrick Henry has 56 carries so far for 200 yards. Jonathan Taylor ground out 26 carries against the Vikings last week without them being able to stop him, expect Henry to do similar.
The Vikings were terrible last week, but are back at a 1300 kick off and back home, Kirk will full far more comfortable here after finishing with a 15.9 passer rating last week. 11 of 26 for 113 yards, and the Colts defense isn’t even that good.
- Titans win and cover, Vikings won’t stop them
- Burnt by the Vikes on total last week, under.
Washington +7 @ Browns: 45
Dwayne Haskins doesn’t give the ball away, he doesn’t do a whole lot with it either but with the field position his defensive line is able to give him he doesn’t really need to.
Terry McLaurin really is the real deal with 186 yards from just 12 receptions so far this year. It’s a concentrated offense though with only really him, Steven Sims and TE Logan Thomas catching balls.
Antonio Gibson – 26% snaps in week 1 up to 65% in week 2 – 9 to 13 carries.
The Browns don’t cover spreads (3-6-1 in last 10, not covered the last 5), the Bengals had no right covering on the TNF game, but somehow managed to despite Denzel Ward having the best game of his career according to PFF.
Chubb and Hunt are the best RB duo in the league, interestingly on Thursday Hunt barely got a touch in the first half so was fresh to go and fuck up the Bengals in the second half of that game where they Dawg pounded them for the full 30 mins.
- Browns win, not touching the spread, should cover, can’t trust them
- Nothing on total.
Panthers +6.5 @ Chargers: 43.5
The Panthers come into this one pretty much as we expected, mildly exciting on offense, terrible on defense.
Christian McCaffrey is out for at least 3 weeks so Mike Davis officially takes the RB role, but it likely means more carries for Curtis Samuel as well, if they get inventive with him it could be very interesting. It may well mean more short passes, so more for DJ Moore in theory, and Robby Anderson is one to look at for yardage, he’s had 100+ in both games so far and while this is the toughest defense he’s faced he’s got breakaway speed, he should be set at higher than 53.5
Chargers without Tyrod Taylor after the team Dr. punctured his lung giving him an injection last week so Justin Herbert officially starts after a pretty decent last minute debut last week. The lateness of that call was to his advantage as the Chiefs had no insight into him playing at all and would have been un-prepared. This is about as easy a defense as he could wish to face though.
He targeted Austin Ekeler far more than Tyrod was, so he’s a decent one to look at on receptions and rec. yardage, caught 4 of 4 last week for 55 yards. He and Joshua Kelley have formed a good RB duo, Kelley getting more on the ground and in the redzone, both are priced poorly to score tonight though. Keenan Allen got some receptions as well with shorter passing rather than bombs to Mike Williams that Tyrod liked to try.
- Chargers should cover, but rookie QB worries me, nothing
- Over on the total, it’s how the Panthers want to play.
Jets +11.5 @ Colts: 44
Fuck me I’d hate to be a Jets fan. Everyone on offense is injured. QB: Sam Darnold RB: Frank Gore WR: Chris Hogan WR: Braxton Berrios WR: Josh Malone TE: Chris Herndon their likely starters.
Colts will ground and pound, I’d imagine they’ll have a similar plan to last week, load up Jonathan Taylor and let him go ham.
That is all on this game. I don’t care for it. Jets team total is 15.5 this week, down from 19 odd last week.
- Colts should cover, not touching double digits.
Cowboys +4.5 @ Seahawks: 56.5
57 POINT TOTAL! – The Cowboys gave up 4 fumbles in the first half last week, trailed by 20 points at the end of the first quarter, apparently had a 0.01% chance to win the game at one point, yet came back to snatch a win with the Falcons watching the ball roll 10 yards on the on-side kick. It really was a remarkable game. Seahawks won a cracker against the Patriots with a last play goal-line stand.
We’ve got the two NFC player of the weeks against each other here, both faced the Falcons which probably helped them achieve that, and both have poor defense and loaded offense. The Cowboys especially fit that mould with Zeke, Cooper, Gallup and Lamb on offense. They’ve got talent all over the place, while Dak himself ran in 3 scores last weekend. It looks like Lamb may be taking over Gallup as the #2 but Gallup has had pretty much the same air yards as Cooper so it’s safe to say it’s been spread around the three of them.
The Seahawks have looked great, Russell Wilson in to 11/4 for MVP now threw for 7 TDs before he threw 7 incompletions on the year and he’s got a great duo at WR, Lockett has been good for years, and DK Metcalf is bigger and quicker than most people he plays against. He’s come on a lot since his debut and looks like a true #1 in this league. They’ve been using Chris Carson out of the backfield a lot as well, he’s got 3 TDs this year, all receiving, and my boy David Moore got his name up last week with an acrobatic catch along the side line. They’re a very polished offense with Russ at the height of his talents.
It should mean points and this line has risen all week, dropped half a point over night from 57, but even though you can’t see it going under that, they’ve both allowed so many yards especially through the air.
- At 4.5 I like the Cowboys to cover
- I can’t back it at 56.5 but it will probably go over
Lions +5.5 @ Cardinals: 55.5
These two met in the opening game of last season in a game the Lions were miles ahead till the 4th quarter let the Cards come back into it and it finished in a tie after overtime.
The Lions became the first team to give up a 10 point lead in FOUR consecutive games in their stuffing by the Packers last week. It means we should probably be looking to play them 1st quarter or 1st half as they have got out to leads in both games so far this year before sitting back and allowing teams back into it.
They can’t defend so it should be high scoring (hence the 53.5) but I think a lot depends on Kenny Golladay playing. It looks like they’ll give him a go tonight but I don’t think he’ll be fully fit, hamstring injuries are a bitch. Marvin Jones will want him back, he’s done well but his numbers are obviously going to be better with a top WR opposite him, less than 100 yards on the season for him so far.
They’re muddled at RB, Kerryon got the rushing TD last week and was in on the first drive but with Adrian Peterson and D’Andre Swift there as well it’s confusing. Swift does seem to get the passing work though so I’m happy to take the over on his rec. line 21.5 is far too low in a high scoring game.
Kyler Murray is fun to watch! He’s run in 3 TDs so far as part of his 158 rushing yards, and only thrown for 1 in each game despite over 500 yards through the air. His favourite man in the passing game has been Hopkins with 22 receptions from 25 targets this year and 1 of those two passing TDs, it’s safe to say he’s fitted in pretty well in their offense.
This could be a big game for Kenyan Drake on the ground as the Lions haven’t been able to defend the run so far this year. 146 yards this year for him on the ground isn’t quite the heights of last season but more than enough in this team.
- A lot of people on the Cards here, I’ve got to lean that way too
- Have to lean over as well.
Buccaneers -5.5 @ Broncos: 43
The Buccs should have put up 40 odd in both games so far, they’ve suffered from drops and slight misses, I’m not sure a trip to Mile high is the get-right game they need, but they’ve hit the Broncos at a good time.
Tom Brady has done pretty well, he’s been himself really, although it does seem he’s throwing downfield a bit more now his connection with Mike Evans seems to have been built. Evans was nearly at 100 yards in the first quarter last week against a poor Panthers defense. Godwin should be back for this one and Scotty Miller filled in adequately.
We could have seen a shift in the backfield with Fournette busting a big run to finish over 100 yards and 2 TDs last week. I think it will still be RoJo first up, but Fournette will probably get a lot in the second half, could be a decent inplay price.
Denver are without Drew Lock and Courtland Sutton so it’ll be Jeff Driskel and KJ Hamler connecting against a stout Buccs defense. Not great for them, but could mean a decent line on Hamler receptions/yards although he’s not listed on 365. Melvin Gordon has done pretty well so far at RB but this is one of the better run stopping units in the league so he’ll struggle tonihgt on the ground, maybe more through the air for him.
Broncos are beaten up, I can’t see them hanging with the Bucs despite Brady having a fairly poor record in Denver.
- Bucs to cover.
- Not touching that low total, lean over.
Packers +3 @ Saints: 53
I don’t know what to make of these two teams, Packers have dispatched two poor pass defense, taking LeFluers NFC North record to 8-0 and the Saints are confusing to me, is Brees done?
Aaron Rodgers. He’s taken care of two poor pass defenses so far, but he’s done it with crazy efficiency, leading the league in QBR so far this season and second in TD passes with 6.
This game all revolves around Devante Adams to be honest, if he plays (I’m not sure he will) then the Packers are the definite favourites in my eyes, if not then it’s a bit closer. I can’t trust a team with Allan Lazard leading the pass catchers.
Aaron Jones has picked up where he left off though leading the league in rush yards and with 4 TDs already this year, he tore the Lions apart last week to finish with the most combined yards for an RB in Packers history.
I got the Saints completely wrong on Monday night, even who they were targeting so I’m way off being able to judge them. I thought last year that Brees had a noodle arm and it seems so this year, I honestly think they might be better moving on from him but he’ll get this year to have a final run at the big game.
Alvin Kamara is the only one to really look for in this game though, 22 touches for 170odd yards on Monday night seems like it will be similar tonight. Trequan Smith did well with the balls he got, 5 receptions for him, just the one for Sanders who I thought would take the MT role. Jared Cook found the endzone but didn’t do much otherwise.
- Got to lean Packers, depends on Adams health
- I like the under here, can’t see it reaching 50.
- Steelers -4
- Titans -2.5
- Cardinals -5.5
- Bengals v Eagles OVER 47.5
- Panthers v Chargers OVER 43.5
- Packers v Saints UNDER 53
- Drew Sample o3.5 receptions – 2.00 (365/Skybet)
- D’Andre Swift o21.5 rec. yards – 1.83 (Skybet/365)
- John Brown o49.5 rec. yards – 1.83 (PP)
- Drew Sample – 9/2 (Ladbrokes) – Standout price.
- Miles Sanders 10/11 (Betfred)
That’ll do, haven’t got time for anything else.
Good luck if you follow.
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