Week 4 TNF: Denver Broncos @ NY Jets; #BroncosCountry #TakeFlight

After the two best teams in the league playing each other on Monday night we go firmly to the other end of the NFL spectrum tonight with possibly the worst team in the league and the Denver Broncos on their 3rd QB with a raft of injuries on both sides of the ball.

I’m going to drift over the preview on this one as frankly it’s not going to be very good and it doesn’t really deserve my time, but I’ve got a few extra bits for this post, so skim past the preview if you need.

Broncos +1 @ NY Jets: 41

Broncos

The Broncos bring in Brett Rypien after Jeff Driskel flamed out on Sunday. He finished the game pretty well for them completing 8 of 9 pass attempts, but of course throwing an interception, and nearly losing a fumble… but apparently that’s better than Driskel still.

He hit Jerry Jeudy twice, Tim Patrick twice, Mel Gordon, KJ Hamler and Diontae Spencer and Royce Freeman, and the INT came when targeting Jeudy.

So… He likes Jeudy and Patrick the most? Fuck knows. An incoming QB usually goes for TE/RB dump offs, I know little of Rypien so I’m not sure to be honest. Noah Fant should, theoretically be in for targets.

The backfield will be mainly Melvin Gordon and they shouldn’t be trailing in this one as the Jets are terrible so they should have more than the 11 carries they had last week. Philip Lindsay may be back which muddles things back there. Realistically they should use the run game a lot.

There’s a lot going on that I’m unsure of, hence why not really wanting to talk much about this game.

Jets

The Jets are fucked. If reports are true then this could be the final game for Gase if they lose. That would usually give some impetus to the players, but frankly I think most of them hate him. They’ve been decimated by injury which hasn’t helped them at all but they’re terrible.

Sam Darnold is still one of the youngest QBs in the league so there’s hope he’ll get through this period of his career and with a better coach be able to show his skills. He’s made some brilliant throws this year, also some terrible ones as shown by at least one of the pick 6’s last week.

He is aiming for the likes of Braxton Berrios, Laurence Cager (real person), Kalen Ballage, Chris Hogan… it’s by quite some way the worst grouping in the league at the moment. In theory Chris Herndon should get roughly 50% of the targets but 3 receptions from his 5 targets doesn’t inspire confidence.

Frank Gore is the only running back left in the league who was playing before TNF was a thing. He had 15 for 57 last week while at the other end of their life La’Mical Perine got a 7 carries and caught a couple of passes. Great.

Summary

Who gives a fuck, sorry, but I’m not sure even Denver or Jets fans will be up for this one.

When you’ve got odds of 3/1 at Paddypower for each team to score AT LEAST ONE TD in each half, you know it’s going to be poor. I’m actually tempted at that price though tbh.

Perine rush yards set at 25.5 on 365. Seems fair.

I’ll have some personal bets on this but I’m not posting anything on here to go on the official record.

I am actually fairly shocked that the Jets can be favourites against any team in this league so I’d lean to the Broncos winning outright, the 1 point spread is pointless anyway.

  • Broncos have lost 5 of last 6 road games.
  • Jets are 7-2 ATS in last 9 home games in October.
  • The OVER is 6-1 in the Broncos last 7 games at the Jets.

I’ve just uploaded @BestBallUKNFL picks for DFS this week at NFL-DFS.com

The prop sheet will be updated tonight and available at nflprops.bet

Stat attack

In our facebook group – https://www.facebook.com/groups/NFLBetting – Alex Woodhouse has been posting his weekly stats and trends, I asked to use them here and he gave permission.

Falcons @ Packers

  • Atl is 4-1 straight up (SU) and 5-0 against the spread (ATS) in their last 5 road games.
  • The OVER is 4-0 in Atl last 4 games.

Eagles @ 49ers

  • Philly are 7-1 ATS in last 8 games against 49ers.
  • 49ers are 15-5 in their last 20 games.
  • The OVER is 5-0 in Philly’s last 5 road games.
  • (Currently the 49ers are 7 point favourites and the total is set at 45 points…everything here points to the 49ers winning by less than 7 with over 45 points scored in the game).

Bills @ Raiders

  • Bills are 6-0 in last 6 games.
  • Bills are 5-1 ATS in last 6 games.
  • The OVER is 6-0 in last 6 meeting between these teams (avg 55.8 point).
  • The current total for this game is at 51.5 points.
  • These are two of the 6 teams who have gone over the total every game this season

Giants @ Rams

  • NY is 13-3 ATS in last 16 road games (currently 12.5 points underdogs).
  • NY is 8-1 ATS in last 9 against the Rams.
  • The OVER is 5-1 in the Rams last 6 games.

Chargers @ Buccaneers

  • The OVER is 14-3 in Tampa’s last 17 games (bare in mind Tom Brady is now at the helm and not gunslinger Jamais Winston).
  • Tampa are 1-9 straight up in October.
  • Chargers are 1-5 straight up in last 6 games.

Colts @ Bears

  • Colts are 0-6 in last 6 road games.
  • Bears are 4-11 ATS in last 15 games.
  • The UNDER is 5-1 in the Bears last 6 home games.

Browns @ Cowboys

  • Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in last 6 games as favourite.
  • Browns are 0-7 straight up in last 7 road games.
  • Browns are 0-7 ATS in last 7 road games.

Vikings @ Texans

  • Vikings are 11-1 straight up in last 12 October games.
  • Texans are 3-8 ATS in last 11 Home games.

Jags @ Bengals

  • Jags are 9-0-1 ATS in last 10 games against AFC North teams.
  • Bengals are 1-6 ATS in last 7 October games.
  • The OVER is 5-2 in the Bengals last 7 games.

Saints @ Lions

  • Saints are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
  • The OVER is 5-1 in the Saints last 6 games.
  • The OVER is 4-1 in games between the Saints and Lions (total currently at 54).

Seahawks @ Dolphins

  • Seahawks are 5-1-1 ATS in last 7 games.
  • Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in last 6 games.
  • The OVER is 12-4 in the Seahawks last 16 games against the AFC (total currently at 54 points).
  • Seahawks have won, covered and gone over the total in all 3 games this year

Cardinals @ Panthers

  • Cardinals are 7-1-2 ATS in last 10 road games.
  • Panthers are 0-4-1 ATS in last 5 games as underdogs.
  • The OVER is 7-2 in the Panthers last 9 games.

Best of luck if you’re having a bet this week!

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