Rough day yesterday, I’ll start with the positives, went 3 out of 4 on the props, Tee Higgins looks like he’s firmly the #1 in Cinci with Boyd and Green working the middle of the field more, his yards were 58 (I think) yesterday, he’s topped 62 in his last 5 games and is getting better each week. Mike Williams longest rec landed quite quickly in that game and we got lucky on Jamaal Williams as he caught a couple of dump offs at the very end of the game to go over his total.
Negatives. Everything else. 0/3 on the spreads was terrible, the Bills won by 3, didn’t cover, Jared Goff shit the bed for the Rams. I got the Miami side of things about right, they had 145 total yards to the Rams 471. 8 First downs in the entire game. EIGHT. And they won by 14. I didn’t consider the Dolphins defense, and the punt return is one of those things and the Chargers.
My god. What the fuck happened there. I watched the first half of that, Drew Lock was dismal, couldn’t do a thing and I figured that one had at least come in, but no, Chargers gonna Charger. giving up 21 points in the third quarter and losing to a last second touchdown.
Got to mention the STILL unbeaten Pittsburgh Steelers who were poor on offense, but defensively caused big issues for the Ravens. It looked like the Ravens were going to pull away at the half but Lamar Jackson just might have been found out a little. Should have thrown a handful of INTs against the Bengals, things came home to roost in this one as he threw 2, his first pass attempt of the day went for a pick 6. – BUT I’m discrediting the Steelers again. They have won every game and now have a good lead atop the AFC North. Fair play to the scum from the Steel City.
Oh, and none of the TD scorers landed, Lev got touches, did nothing. Jonnu was targeted in the endzone, but it was intercepted, 7/4 was worth the bet compared to the 1/1 everywhere else and Dionate Johnson left the game for a while with a hamstring injury. Odds were good on him so I still think it was worth the shot. Value was right, results not at all.
Joe Burrow is the highest rated QB in the AFC North. WHO DEY.
Bucs (5-2) -12.5 @ Giants (1-6):45.5
This won’t be too long, not a whole lot to talk about really.
|Points||222 (31.1)||122 (17.4)|
|1st half||127 (18.1)||62 (8.9)|
|2nd half||95 (13.6)||60 (8.6)|
|1st qtr||55 (7.9)||34 (4.9)|
|2nd qtr||72 (10.3)||28 (4)|
|3rd qtr||45 (6.4)||16 (2.3)|
|4th qtr||50 (7.1)||44 (6.3)|
Bucs 4-3 covers, 4-3 overs. Covering by 8.1 pts, winning margin – 11 pts. Scored every qtr in 3 of 7; average spread 3.4 favs
Giants 4-3 covers, 5-2 unders. missing covers -2.2, losing by 7.4 per; average spread 5.2 dogs.
Basically the Bucs are better than the Giants. They’re outscoring them and have the #1 ranked defense according to DVOA, 1st vs the pass, 2nd vs the run. They’re a complete team and might welcome Antonio Brown back to the league next week with Chris Godwin still out.
Brady has been good. I’ll be honest I was sceptical of the Bucs this year, I thought Brady’s arm was done, but he’s made every pass he’s needed to make including a beauty to the corner of the endzone last week. They’ve had different personnel each week too with players getting injured regularly for them and there’s been few moments when Godwin and Evans have been on the field, Godwin is going to IR after minor finger surgery, so will be out for 3 weeks, Evans has one of the weirder stat-lines of the year 58th in yards (318), 6th in TDs (6) – They don’t need to force-feed him and Brady won’t do that.
He’s even making Gronk look good again. 18 TDs:4 INTs on the season, no giveaways for the last 3 games now he’s settled into the system.
They’ll have Leonard Fournette another week healthier to muddle the backfield with Ronald Jones. RoJo looked pretty good, 3 x 100 yard games in a row, with Lenny out, so it’s a shame he might get some of his usage taken away from him now, obviously good for the team, not so much for us betting or using them in fantasy.
The Giants haven’t been great, losing Saquon basically ended their season before it got going, and they’ve rarely had their first string offense available to them, the run game has been poor and goes against one of the better run Ds in the league, so it’s not really worth talking about Wayne Gallman. Who I’d imagine will be the “lead back” with Devonta Freeman out injured.
Sterling Shepard returned last week and scored, as did Golden Tate on his one receptions. Evan Engram has been hugely disappointing this year which sums up the whole passing game basically. Darius Slayton is probably the man to look towards for yards he gets the big targets, but it’s hit or miss. 46.5 his yards on 365.
Daniel Jones isn’t that bad in my opinion, only 5 TDs thrown on the season which obviously isn’t good, 21st in QBR, but it’s his running which helps him out. His line is 25.5, he’s gone over that in 4 of his last 5 games. I think he’ll top it again, the worry is that they don’t have much else there, so the Bucs will know it’s coming. Hopefully he won’t fall down this time.
The Bucs have too much for the Giants on both sides of the ball and I’d be shocked if they manage to hold them under 30 points. So they’ll need 18+ to cover the spread, I don’t see it happening, but I don’t like taking double digits. I’d say under the total as well.
Bucs 1st and 3rd quarter handicaps, (both -3 on 365) should land but I’ve been done on those recently so just a mention of them.
I’d lean under on Rojo (61.5) and Gallman (38.5) rush yards, over on Fournette (43.5)
Fournette rec. yards at 19.5 is a teaser, I wouldn’t want to take the over on any of the Bucs receivers as Brady spreads the ball around.
I will have a bet on Daniel Jones rush yards – over 25.5 (365)
And leave everything else.
Week 9 Lines
Lot of Covid news going on today, so TNF off the board with AJ Dillon positive.
- Ravens @ Colts – was 3, Marlon Humphrey positive test.
- Panthers +12 @ Chiefs : 52
- Bears +6 @ Titans: 46.5
- Broncos +4 @ Falcons: 50
- Lions +4 @ VIkings: 53.5
- Texans +6.5 @ Jaguars: 51.5
- Giants +3.5 @ Washington: 43
- Seahawks -2.5 @ Bills: 54
- Raiders +1.5 @ Chargers: 54
- Dolphins @ Cardinals – Cards had a positive test over the bye week
- Steelers @ Cowboys – Assume they’re waiting on Dalton news. Got to expect near double digits though – Cowboys could become the first team to go 0-9 ATS
- Saints +4.5 @ Bucs: 54.5
- Pats -7 @ Jets: 41
I really like the Texans line going up against rookie Jake Luton, I was an auto-fade on the Jags anyway, especially with a rookie QB, and I like the Seahawks on the road. Bills have been poor over the last month, Seahawks looked good this and might have Adams back for it as well as Carson/Hyde in the backfield.