#NFL Week 17; It all comes down to this

It’s the final week of the regular, and it’s here on time, despite a number of delays and scares through the season, they’ve somehow managed to make it this far without any full cancelled games, and a full 240 played through 16 games.

By my calculations (and they may be wrong) this is how things stand with regards to favourites and underdogs, both home and road, and game totals, fair play to the bookies, especially on totals to be that close to level on closing lines, underdogs have had the better of it on the season as whole though.

Favourites coveringDogs CoveringPush
1061313
UndersOversPush
1191165
HmFvCv%HmFavsHome Fav CoverRoad Fav CoverRoadfavRdFvCv%
46.32136634310142.57
HmDogCv%HmDogsHome Dog CoverRoad Dog CoverRoadDogRdDogsCv%
55.77104587313952.52

Week 17 has been an utter bitch to try and figure out so far, there is so much tumult regarding pretty much every team this week that it’s been pretty tough to figure out who is going to play and what the heck is going on.

I will try and state in these previews (so you don’t have to), what can happen to each team. Obviously some previews will be more detailed than others, and I’ll try and highlight some randoms who could do something given the weirdness of rosters for tomorrow.

Falcons +6.5 @ Buccaneers: 50.5

Falcons are done. Bucs are the 5th seed provided they don’t lose, if they lose the Rams can get the 5th seed and push the Bucs down to 6th. The 5th seed is quite important as you’ll be facing the winner of the NFC East.

So, team news… I might just stick to things of relevance. Calvin Ridley sits 137 yards from Stefon Diggs atop the receiving yards list, Julio is out, he will probably get near 100. Falcons run game stinks, Ito Smith probably leads them in carries this week having “earned more” on the ground. Brandon Powell out as well, so Gage, Smith, Treadwell as other WRs, Hayden Hurst should get targets at TE, but he’s been unreliable for betting.

Buccs are fairly healthy, especially on offense. No-one seems to be missing out, Ronald Jones returns, assume he’d be back to RB1 again, all pass catchers seem to be there and they’ve been clicking recently. They rested Brady for the second half last week in their destruction of the Lions, Keshawn Vaughn looked pretty good, they might give him more of the ball? 15/2 isn’t bad for him as a punt. The pass-catching game is a bit of a crap shoot as always, nothing for me on that front. Evans, Godwin, Gronk, Brown could all score, all above even if you want to pick one.

Tampa have covered 8 times, gone over 8, under 7. Have won every game they’ve led at the half (6)

Falcons have covered 7, over 6, under 8. Involved in 10 one-score games, have led in 9 of 15.

Falcons keep games close, I don’t want to take the Bucs on the spread. Lean over the total.

Ravens -13.5 @ Bengals: 44

The Ravens need the win to guarantee a playoff spot. If the Browns or Colts lose then they’re in anyway.

The Ravens are full of unkindness for shit teams (apparently a group of Ravens is an unkindness, kinda wedged that one in). They murder them (yeah, that’s Crows, so what) – But they do put away shit teams easily. They should deal with the Bengals easily enough although they did lose to them a couple of years back and that cost them the post-season then. Safe to say Cinci will be up for it and have put a couple of games together.

Ravens will likely carry on what they’ve been doing, running the ball a lot. JK Dobbins looks good, Gus does his bit (despite being questionable with a back, it looks like he’ll play with Ingram out with Illness) and Lamar Jackson is looking for his second consecutive 1,000 yard season on the ground, needs 92 to achieve that. Andrews likely to lead them in receptions, Marquise maybe in yards if he feels like catching some.

Bengals welcome back Tyler Boyd from concussion, Tee Higgins had a hammy during the week, should play though while William Jackson won’t. It leaves the secondary thin. Offensively the dual-threat of Gio and Perine has worked well. Tee Higgins is going to be a star though, if he was on a team who had performed well this year he’d be talked about with Jefferson, he makes brilliant catches and his route-running has improved through the year, Burrow to Higgins is going to be beautiful going forward. It looks like AJ Greens final game with the Bengals, I have my jersey prepared.

Ravens have scored in every quarter of 10 games this year. 11 first half leads, covered in 9 games, 7 overs, 8 unders.

Bengals have covered 9, 8 overs, 7 unders, 7 first half leads yet only gone on to win 2 of them. Their 3rd quarter scoring is terrible. They’d gone 7 games without a 3rd qtr point until 2 TDs last week vs. the Texans.

Ravens should win, I won’t take them covering 14 obviously, but I wouldn’t be shocked if they’re 20 pts up by the half. The Joe Burrow Bengals only scored 3 pts with a meaningless late field goal. Lean over a low total.

Cowboys -1 @ Giants: 44.5

A game where both sides have chances to progress. A win for either keeps them in with a chance with Washington playing later for some stupid fucking reason. Well, I know the reason, the NFL has to have the NFC East in prime-time, but it seems shit that Washington and Philly will know what the deal is. Basically if Wash win they’re in, otherwise it’s the winner of this game who takes the NFC East. Possibly with 6 wins, which is amazing. There’s been two 7-9 division winners in history.

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nfl/cowboys-vs-giants-nfl-week-17-picks/165057/

Already previewed this one here, and surprised the money has come for the Giants to bring the line in, makes the Cowboys moneyline likeable now, at 5/6 on Betfair. Zeke at Evens seems good after he played well last week finally rested, he said it was the best he’d felt all year, and topped 100 yards. Gallup had a couple of TDs, he Cooper and Lamb are a great treble.

For me, they’ve got too much on offense for the Giants to keep up, they’ve only topped 23 points twice this year.

Cowboys have covered 5 games, all of them within their last 7. Totals have gone over 10 times, under 5. Scored at least 30 in 4 of their last 6.

Giants have covered 7 games, none of the last 5 games though, gone over in just 3, under in 12, (fewest overs in the league) scored a maximum of 19 pts in their last 5 games with McCoy or injured Jones.

Have to take the Cowboys to win, and lean over the total, almost entirely on the back of the Cowboys.

Dolphins +2 @ Bills: 42

A win for the Dolphins gets them into the playoffs. Or a Baltimore (vs Cin), Cleveland (Pit resting players) or Indy (Jags) loss. None of them look likely, so it’s the win they need. The Bills have the division and the 2 seed provided Pittsburgh don’t better their result. In fairness the seeding doesn’t help much as they’ll be playing a good team regardless.

The Dolphins won’t have Fitzpatrick to save the day this week as he’s on the Covid list so it’s jonny checkdown Tua Tagovailoa for the entire game. That probably means a lot in the middle of the field and a large amount of use for the tight ends. Mike Gesicki led the team in targets on his return from injury last game and Durham Smythe and Adam Shaheen are used a fair bit too. Parker and Grant are both officially questionable. The run game should get the bulk of the work with Myles Gaskin getting most of that since his return 14 carries for him last week opposed to 6 of Salvon Ahmed, as well as leading the team in rec. yards with 82 and 2 TDs vs. the Raiders.

The Bills don’t have a whole lot to play for, as above, they’ve probably got the 2 seed locked up which is a great achievement from where they were a couple of years back, the front office got Diggs and it worked splendidly, he’s leading the league in yards and Josh Allen was the QB1 in the regular fantasy season. They are without Cole Beasley, but should have John Brown and give him a week to get some game-time back. Diggs, Brown and Davis should be good enough, Dawson Knox has been good in recent weeks too, 3 TDs in his last 5 games.

They’ve no reason to risk injury to their studs, the only reason to push things would be to keep Miami out of the playoffs and I doubt McDermott is that petty, also they may well face each other next weekend.

Now there’s some discrepancy in my numbers here, may well be the choice of closing number we use (or just me inputting a number wrong, maybe I’ll review them in the off-season), but Teamrankings have the Dolphins covering 11 games, while I have them at 10. likewise I have 5 overs, 10 unders, compared to 6 and 9. They’ve only conceded in every quarter in 1 game (last week). They’ve covered the most spreads of any team this year.

The Bills have covered 10 games (all of their last 7) so either joint top, or second depending on data. 9 overs, 4 unders, 2 pushes. (again 9-5-1 on Teamrankings) – I’m pretty certain they’ve led at the half in 12 games, winning 11 of them.

Taking Bills HT makes sense, they may want to get Diggs the rec. title, they almost certainly will want to rest starters in the second half. Whole game? I got nothing, I just don’t know how the second half goes. I don’t rate a Tua-led Dolphins team, yet.

Steelers +9.5 @ Browns: 41.5

Steelers have 3rd seed wrapped up, they’re resting Big Ben and have a ton of covid related stuff. Joe Haden out and missing next week too, Ebron out this week, Heyward, Pouncey and TJ Watt all out this week. The Browns need the win to make sure they’re in. They can get in with a loss IF Indy lose. Then there’s a load of tie related stuff. It shouldn’t matter. They should win.

Mason Rudolph is in at QB, he got a bump to the noggin when Myles Garrett tried to help him get his helmet back on last year and shit kicked off. It was fun. I personally expect James Conner to get carries to try and get him some game-time after injuries, but could be more Snell still. We may see more MacFarland who will have trained more with Rudolph than the others. But I’ve no idea in the run game tbh, could even be Samuels who did a bit of wildcat with Rudolph last year, that’s how shit he is at QB. The passing game seems healthy enough although Johnson missed practise with illness, so could be rested. Juju is juju. Claypool should be fine, and James Washington did well with Rudolph last year, played with him in college (insert trope alarm)

Baker Mayfield is going to be the first Browns QB since 1981 to start every game in back-to-back years when he plays tomorrow. He’s looked better, but you can’t defend a loss to the fucking Jets last week even with receivers missing out. Chubb and Hunt are the best 1-2 in the league at RB. All their WRs should be back, Landry 5+ receptions, Higgins more of a TD threat for them.

Steelers have 9 covers (only 1 of last 5), 7 overs, 7 unders, 1 push. They’ve got 7 1 score wins from 8 1 score games. (Fairly irrelevant with all the resting players this week)

Browns have 6 covers, 8 overs, 7 unders. They’re 6-2 in 1 score games and have won every game they’ve led at half time (9)

Browns win against the reserves, would probably take the Steelers to cover, but can’t back that. Lean over the total, it’s low

Vikings -4.5 @ Lions: 54

A game with nothing on it.

Vikings are giving Cook the week off with personal reasons, Alexander Mattison returns from concussion, Abdullah and Boone will get carries too, Boone has a nose for the endzone. Justin Jefferson needs just 47 yards to break Randy Moss’ rookie receiving record, safe to say he’s fitted in well after being 4th string in the summer and behind the likes of ‘Bisi Johnson on the depth chart. Thielen has a 3rd ranked 14 rec. TDs this year. Irv Smith is my boy though, scored 5 TDs in his last 5 games including a couple vs. the Saints on Xmas day. He gets open at the goal-line. They’ve got better defensively through the year, but it’s not great.

The Lions will probably have Stafford back, possibly for his last game, obviously without Golladay again, his injury early on fucked up their year really. They’ve been spunky since sacking Matt Patricia and actually watchable on offense, although their D has been terrible. Marv Jones should put up numbers, TJ Hockenson will get receptions and the run game should be good for D’Andre Swift with Peterson and Kerryon doing bits too, they may give Peterson more against his former team.

Vikings have covered 6, over in 10, under in 5.

Lions have covered 5, Over in 9, under in 6, only led at the half in 4 games.

Lean to the Vikings covering, very high total without Cook playing, have to lean under despite the stats saying otherwise.

Jets +3 @ Patriots: 40

The Jets have the #2 sealed up and have been winning games since that happened, beating the Rams and Browns in consecutive weeks while the Patriots look fucking terrible on offense, could get a top 10 pick with a loss.

The Jets are one of the few teams to have scored fewer than the Pats, but have looked all right in the last few weeks. Amazingly they’ve scored on their opening drive in 8 consecutive games now. Frank Gore is out, it’d be a shitty way to finish his career, but I’m sure he’ll be somewhere next year, either way, Ty Johnson leads the backfield with Josh Adams nicely priced as the two. Mims, Perriman and Crowder aren’t a terrible trio for any possible new QB coming in, they’re actually fairly healthy as the season closes.

The Patriots ruled out Damien Harris, so Sony Michel keeps his main man role, take the over if it’s around 50 yards for him. I guess Cam starts, but he’s been dreadful, if you can get a passing line then take the under. They’ve scored 24 points in 3 weeks. Even before that the 45 vs. the Chargers was mainly defensive scoring. They’re awful to watch. I’ve got to expect Stidham to play more. Passing game can’t be talked about. Defense. Meh.

Jets have covered 6 games (after ZERO in the first 6 games), over in 6, under in 9. Conceded in every quarter in 9 games this year.

Patriots have covered 6 games, over in 4, under in 10, 1 push on totals.

Can’t lean any way other than the Jets covering this, and under on the total. I doubt anyone will watch this game, I can’t imagine it taking much time on Redzone. Patriots have won the last 9 between the two.

Adams 13/2 (Skybet)

Jaguars +14 @ Colts: 49.5

Jags have 1 win, the first game vs….. The Colts. The Colts need to win to have a chance of making the playoffs. They need help though, a Tennessee loss would give them the AFC South… If Ten and Indy win then Indy need a loss for Cle (vs Pitt reserves), Bal (vs Cin) or Miami (vs Buf) – Basically the incomprehensible loss in week 1 (which immediately knocked me out of all pick’em leagues) could cost them the playoffs.

The Jags are starting Mike Glennon, they’re without DJ Chark, James Robinson and er, Collin Johnson. So… Shenault? Dare Ogunbowale (never thought I’d get to type his name flawlessly without checking again) and Devine Ozigbo? Yeah, not worth talking about them really.

The Colts are obviously more interesting, Jonathan Taylor came on rather well in the second half of the season, having 5 TDs in his last 3 games, at least 74 rush yards in his last 5 games, despite being “bad” for most of the year he’s 8th in rush attempts, 11th in yards. Not that bad a season really. Nyheim Hines is the change of pace and does a decent job of it. TY Hilton carried on his decent form but Zach Pascal lead them in receiving yards again. They spread the ball around on offense though between Hilton, Pascal and Pittman and the tight ends, Doyle Burton and Big Mo Alie-Cox. They’ve been good on defense and realistically should be able to give Deforest Buckner some rest for next week. If they get there.

Jags have covered 6 games, Over in 8, under in 7. Unsurpisingly only have 2 half time leads.

Colts have covered 8 games, over in 9, under in 6. 10 HT leads this season.

Colts win, can’t take them covering 14, although they have covered the spread by 13.5 in 5 games this year. Nothing on the total.

Saints -5.5 @ Panthers: 46.5

The Saints have won the division. A win gets them the second seed at least. If they win, the Packers lose and the Seahawks win, they get the 1 seed. If they and the Packers lose, the Seahawks would steal the 1 seed if they win (simple, right). The Panthers are pick 9 in next years draft as it stands.

Ok, the Saints have no RBs. Kamara and Murray are out as well as Burton, their full back. So Ty Montgomery probably gets the start and they promoted Tony Jones Jnr. from the practise squad today. I got a great price on Montgomery, not a chance I’d take him at odds-on, Taysom Hill is decent odds to score as I’m sure they’ll use him in the redzone now. Kamara and Murray may miss out in the playoffs next weekend which is a big worry. They’re fine at pass-catcher at least, Thomas is on IR, TreQuan Smith is out, Josh Hill is out, Deonte Harris is out. So… Sanders? LilJordan Humphrey is playing, but odds aren’t huge on him.

The Panthers have been better than expected, but still losing, they’re without Mike Davis this week so Rodney Smith seems to be the RB1 and it’s a Teddy Bridgewater “revenge” game after leaving them in the summer. He’s done well, DJ Moore and Robby Anderson are a decent duo and there’s promise for the future and Jeremy Chinn could be DROY after a good first year. The future is bright, but they’re in a tough division.

Saints have covered 8, over in 10 games this year. This is a weird game though

Panthers covered 9 (4 of the last 5), 7-7-1 on totals. They’ve been in 11 one-score games losing 8 of them.

Saints should win, but can’t back them to cover.

Chargers -3.5 @ Chiefs: 44

Chargers are done, Chiefs have the 1 seed wrapped up.

Anthony Lynn could well be on the way out, but he may think a win here could keep him in the job. Justin Herbert set the rookie record for passing TDs last week, will be without Keenan Allen, Joey Bosa, Hunter Henry and a few others.

The Chiefs are without most of their guys, Mahomes, Hill, Watkins, Clyde Edwards-Helaire all out, Lev Bell questionable. It’s messy. Even Kelce is at 5/2 so I guess they don’t think he plays much with Chad Henne at QB. Darwin Thompson looks set to get the workload at RB according to RapSheet, best priced 7/2 anytime (PP)

Nothing on this one. Not really any point of the stats either.

Chargers have covered 7 games, over 8, under in 7. Have lost 7 of 11 one-score games.

Chiefs have covered 6, over in 7, under in 8. Haven’t covered in 7 games now, and their stars will be 3 weeks without a game when they play next.

Packers -4 @ Bears: 50.5

Packers will seal the #1 with a win. If they lose AND the Seahawks and Saints win, then it goes to the Saints. If both the Packers and Saints lose and the Seahawks win then the ‘hawks get it. Basically the Packers win and they get the bye and home-field throughout. It’s win and in for the Bears, a loss would leave them needing the Cardinals to lose (vs the Rams)

Aaron Rodgers is playing at MVP level and should win that award unless he capitulates here, Davante Adams is the best in the league this year, 3rd in receptions, 4th in yards, first in TDs (despite missing 2 full games), double teams don’t work against him, the connection between the two is just too good, though he did have one of his poorest games vs the Bears, still scored. Bit parts everywhere else in the passing game, MVS deep, Lazard a few catches, Robert Tonyan probably 4 or 5. Same as every week, Adams is the only trustworthy piece. Aaron Jones got banged up last time out and AJ Dillon stepped in very well, be interesting to see if they give him more time here, 4/1 on Hills for him. The loss of David Bakhtiari at LT is huge for them and probably hurts their Superbowl bid.

Mitchell Trubisky has sparked the Bears offense a little, it just took a few games of Nick Foles to make him look good in comparison, they’ve been running him more and he’s actually played all right, leaving them a choice on whether they suck it up and have to pay him more than the 5th year option would have been in the summer. Same as always for the Bears really, Allen Robinson the only trustworthy piece although Darnell Mooney scored last week. They looks for the TE a lot in the redzone be it old man Graham or Kmet. David Montgomery has been running well against poor rush Ds and he gets another of the bottom half here.

Packers are 9-6 ATS, 8-7 to the overs, have 11 first half leads this year, converting 10 to wins, averaging over 13 pts in second quarters.

Bears are 8-7 ATS, 7-8 on totals. involved in 11 one-score games winning 6, losing 5.

Packers should win, they’ve dominated the NFC north since LaFluer took over and Rodgers to Adams seems unstoppable. No bet on spread of total for me though.

wade payne, FRE; associated press

Titans -7.5 @ Texans: 56

A win for the Titans gets them the AFC South and the 4th seed in the AFC, a loss could see them out of the playoffs entirely, they’d need the Colts to lose (vs. Jags) Texans are currently giving their #3 pick to the Dolphins. Bill O’Brien, you idiot.

Probably a whole lot of Derrick Henry against a terrible rush defense. Henry needs 223 rush yards to hit 2,000. Could get that by half time… he had a career high 264 scrimmage yards in their week 6 meeting which went to OT. The decision for them is to run him into the ground or bench him if it’s all in hand by half time. They did that a couple of weeks back and Darrynton Evans took the 4th quarter work and scored (9/1 Skybet for him today) – If it’s not Henry then Tannehill has been great since taking over the reigns at QB, he’s got a full compliment of players, AJ Brown, Corey Davis (who did nothing in fantasy championship week last week) Jonnu Smith, Anthony Firkser and maybe Raymond Kaliff for the odd deep-shot. They even welcome back Adoree Jackson at CB for the first time in aeons.

The Texans are probably without Laremy Tunsil at LT, doesn’t matter the Titans can’t rush the passer. DeShaun Watson has been brilliant this year, could sneak the leading passer crown with Mahomes resting this week. He’s got Keke Coutee, Brandin Cooks, Jordan Akins and Darren Fells to throw to, and a range of miscellaneous randoms. David Johnson got all the carries last week, with Buddy Howell as the invisible #2 (worst nickname ever) They’ve lost 4 in a row.

Titans are 7-8 ATS (including covering 4 of their last 5, failing in the snow in Lambeau last week), a league leading 11-3-1 to the overs

Texans are worst in the league ATS 5-10, and 7-8 on Totals, they’ve conceded in every quarter of 9 games this year, tied worst in that aspect too.

Have to lean Titans but don’t like it over the 7. Obviously got to lean over but it’s the highest total of the week by some way. – I don’t mind the Titans to score every quarter. 5/4 at 365 (not sure where else offers it)

Cardinals -3 @ Rams: 40.5

The Cardinals need a win and the Bears (vs. GB) to not win to claim the 7th seed. If they both win the Bears get in on h2h between them. The Rams need the win to confirm their spot. If they Rams lose and the Bears win, then they miss out. If both lose then the Rams get in as 7th seed.

The Cardinals will probably be without Larry Fitzgerald, but Kyler will be playing and has looked better running in recent weeks, his passing, not so much, but his mobility is key and will be in avoiding the Rams pass rush, officially he was sacked twice in their first matchup but I think Kyler was still worried about his shoulder then. Nuk Hopkins is rather good and Christian Kirk led the team in receiving yards last week, was targeted a lot, but misses out this week. With Fitz out it is probably KeeSean Johnson should get more snaps, maybe Andy Isabella/Trent Sherfield. Likely more for TE Dan Arnold in the middle of the field.

The Rams are without Jared Goff, Cooper Kupp, Darrell Henderson and probably Cam Akers although he’s a game-time decision. If he doesn’t go they’re down to Malcolm Brown at RB, who can do a job at least. John Wolford (my long-lost cousin) is in at QB. He will probably rush a lot as he did in the AAF. Not sure on his passing and without Kupp they’re depleted. Josh Reynolds and Van Jefferson probably step into his slot and Robert Woods becomes more important. Jalen Ramsey will probably stick to Hopkins, and can shut down most players in the league.

Cardinals are 8-7 ATS, 5-9-1 on totals. Have won 11 2nd halves this season.

The Rams are 8-7, 4-11 on totals (I believe every home game has gone under the total), eesh… have won 13 2nd halves. That’s crazy.

Got to lean Cardinals with the Rams injuries and leaning under the total, although it is horribly low and both teams may need the win…

Raiders -3 @ Broncos: 51

A nothing game.

The Raiders have nothing to play for and I’ve not seen much talk of them at all this week. They’ve sleep walked through the second half of their schedule after the big game against the Chiefs. Josh Jacobs hasn’t done much in the second half, the passing game is bleh, meh. I can’t be bothered with more on them. Darren Waller has had another big year.

Drew Lock is probably playing for his career, and he usually puts up numbers when he’s under pressure even if it’s when the game has got away from them. Philip Lindsay is on IR, so mostly Melvin and Royce Freeman with bits. Jeudy has been dropping a lot or having the ball flying over him, he had 15 targets last week, caught 6. I like Tim Patrick as every week, Noah Fant will get his as well More of the same from them really. Probably.

Raiders are 9-6 ATS, a league leading 11-3-1 on totals. – They have scored in every quarter of their last 4 games.

Broncos are 8-7 ATS, 7-8 on totals.

Nothing on the spread, but have to lean over on the total, and obviously worth a look at Raiders to score every quarter.

Seahawks -7 @ 49ers: 46

If the Seahawks win AND the Saints and Packers lose then the Seahawks get the 1 seed. That seems unlikely so they’re probably stuck in the 3 seed. The 49ers will be happy to get to next season with healthy players.

Carlos Hyde is out for the Seahawks, other than that they’re fairly good on the offensive side of the ball. DK has droped off a little towards the end of the season, still a large gent. Tyler Lockett meh. They’ve become more run-heavy again with Chris Carson back. Bah, not much to talk about really, they’ve gone back to boring, non-scoring, ball control on offense. Don’t mind a punt on Rashaad Penny as the RB2, although he’s in to 9/2 now, I’m sure I saw him bigger yesterday, probably before the Hyde news.

The 49ers are without most players. Deebo and Aiyuk are out, Sherman and Williams at CB as well. Mostert is out for the season, so probably a healthy dose of Big Jeff Wilson who tends to find the endzone when he plays. McKinnon had some very low lines last week and topped his receiving line easily. George Kittle will play, so… there’s that at least. Nick Mullens isn’t a QB to trust though. Kittle line is 51.5 on Skybet, 60.5 on Betfair.

Seahawks are 9-6 ATS, 6-9 on totals. Have only lost 2 1st halfs this year. (won 10, drawn 2)

49ers are 6-9 ATS, 7-8 on totals, despite a 6-9 overall record they’re only -11 on point differential.

Obviously only going to take the Seahawks on the spread with such a diminished 49ers roster, but they tend to kee games close, so can’t take them laying 7. Nothing on the total, could be way under, could be way over.

Washington -3.5 @ Eagles: 43.5

The final game of the season. If Washington win they’re in. Simple as that. The Eagles are resting everyone to allow Washington to win.

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nfl/washington-vs-eagles-nfl-week-17-picks/165097/

I said at the end of that the Eagles hate the Cowboys more than anyone else in their division and it seems like that’s true. Miles Sanders, Fletcher Cox, Dallas Goedert, Derek Barnett, Jordan Mailata, DeSean Jackson, Shaun Bradley, Duke Riley, and Richard Rodgers are all out.

Washington on the other hand look like they’ll have Alex Smith, Antonio Gibson and Terry McLaurin all playing. I’m not sure how healthy Terry is, but such is the import of the game, he’s going to go. Logan Thomas will probably lead the team in targets again though.

Jalen Hurts has added a spark to the Eagles and could win the game if he’s allowed. I have a feeling he won’t be though. Boston Scott not a bad price at 9/4, could be worth a sniff on Corey Clement at 15/2 if you’re really desperate for something here, although it makes more sense for them to give rookie Jason Huntley a go (20/1 and above) to see if he’s got anything. JJAW is 20s as well in the passing game.

Washington are 8-7 ATS, 5-9-1 on totals. Have won 12 second halves, including 10 in a row if my sheet is correct. Weird.

Eagles are 5-10 ATS, 7-8 on totals.

Obviously got to like Washington to win the second half with that stat. Overall it seems like the Eagles are giving the title to Washington, got to take their side and under on the total. Can’t see many points.

Summary

  • Cowboys moneyline
  • Washington moneyline

TD scorers

There will be some big price winners this week. The problem is picking them. So 1 point stakes

  • Josh Adams – 13/2 (Skybet)
  • Adam Shaheen – 9/1 (Skybet/PP)
  • Darrynton Evans – 9/1 (Skybet)
  • Irv Smith – 2/1 (WillHill)
  • Jeff Wilson – 5/4 (Skybet)
  • AJ Dillon – 4/1 (WillHill)
  • James Washington – 11/2 (Unibet)

Player Props

Restrictive selections this week, so far.

  • Robert Tonyan o2.5 receptions – 8/15ish (Hills/Skybet/365)
  • Denzel Mims o34.5 rec. yards – 5/6 (PP/Betfair)

Right. Regular season is done.

Good luck if you’re betting. Play it safe it’s a bit of a crap shoot to say the least.

Thanks for reading through the year, my tips haven’t been good but I hope the info has been useful for you.

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