First up, much appreciation for any and all clicks/read on opening weekend. I went WAY over the top, but hits on this site were through the roof. I hope you gained something from the previews and didn’t scan straight to the bets I posted at the end as they didn’t quite go to plan. I personally had a good weekend but I talked myself out of recommending a few things because the lines had gone up from Thursday when they started appearing on sites and I wasn’t sure the value was there any more
I probably need to figure out a way around that happening in future, maybe putting some stand out props on this post which I may do tonight as I’ve not got much for this game.
Also, It’s been a while and I didn’t recommend a NAP, or stakes.
Second; Apologies for not having a Monday night football thread. Trying to fit things in around life is tough and I just didn’t have time. Which is annoying as I had a few winners that I may have posted on here.
Third; This game isn’t going to be good to watch.
Giants +3 @ Washington; 41
The first Thursday night Football of the season is here and it’s not the Bengals for once! The football gods usually get us out of the way early on vs. Jacksonville or something similarly dismal, but this week is two 0-1 teams in a divisional clash to kick off the TNF viewing season.
The Giants were beaten soundly by the Broncos who took advantage of some “debatable” offensive line play to get pressure on Daniel Jones and restrict the Giants through the game. Von Miller is still one of the best pass-rushers in the league, but even still it wasn’t a good showing from them.
It was rough from the off for the Giants with star running back Saquon Barkley on a snap count and they left him out of the game in the final quarter with it out of reach. That meant Daniel Jones led the team on the ground and ran in a TD. With Evan Engram out Sterling Shepard caught 7 of 9 targets for 113 and a TD, while new signing Kenny Golladay came through unscathed with 4 for 64 yards.
Washington however didn’t come through their game unscathed as they lost Ryan Fitzpatrick for a number of weeks with a ‘Hip Subluxation’ which doesn’t sound fun. It meant playing most of the game with Taylor Heinicke at QB. He did that last year including in the playoffs where he performed well so while it hits them, it’s not a “write off the season” kind of thing.
They did however only attempt 15 passes with Heinicke in the team. That will rise tonight but might not need to by too much. Antonio Gibson was probably going to be the focus of the attack anyway, and he ended with 20 carries for 90 yards and a few receptions from 5 targets. Terry McLaurin should be fine although with a lower ceiling and Logan Thomas should get more use this week than his 3 targets last week.
On to the Giants tonight.
The Giants will likely have Saquon Barkley on a snap count again after easing him into the season last week. It would be silly to over-use him in the second game of the season where he’s going to have 10 days recovery after this game and it’s been suggested as such. So it’s means there probably won’t be much of a running game again. That makes it tough for this team. Devontae Booker had 4 carries on Sunday, and while he’ll be the RB2 it may well be a lot more of Daniel Jones rushing the ball, whether he’s scrambling or they’re designed his record vs. Washington is freakily good.
Daniel Jones is 4-0 vs. Washington, 4-20 against everyone else in the league. The Giants are 0-5 in Primetime with Daniel Jones under center – Thanks to @FieldYates for those stats. In a well coached and managed team I think Jones would have been quite successful, he’s got a good arm and is mobile, both things which are sought after in the modern NFL. But this teams isn’t either of those things.
You’ve got to assume the game-plan will be similar to the weekend, with Evan Engram out again, probably a lot of Sterling Shepard targets in the middle of the field as he tends to blow up without Engram in the side. Maybe not the 9 targets he had on Sunday, but he should go over his 4.5 receptions line. Kenny Golladay is a contested catch king and that’s going to be useful in this offense, he should be able to get some chunk plays if they can protect Jones long enough to allow that. Darius Slayton was the sure WR3 and is a deep threat, he was second in the team in targets and finished with 65 from 3 catches including a 47 yarder which is basically his calling-card.
Rookie Kadarious Toney seems like an arsehole from the things we read during camp, he only played 5 snaps but was targeted and caught two of them although -2 yardage suggests that the bubble screen went very badly. CJ Board out-snapped him as the WR4 and caught his 1 target which was in the redzone. I’ve no idea if either of them will do anything here but it’s probably worth keeping an eye out and Toney was taking early in this years draft which makes me keep an eye out for his odds.
The offensive line is going to be the issue. It’s not good and it’s had probably the toughest start you could facing the Broncos last week and Washington this week. It could be a very long day for them going up against a more assembled bunch of talent than last week they could be leaking throughout the line instead of just through Nate Solder.
The loss of Fitzpatrick would have thrown them in week one, but I think the plan was always going to be to try and work off of the success of Antonio Gibson. Head coach Ron Rivera had said in preseason that he wanted him to be their version of Christian McCaffrey and that means a lot of touches. 20 on the ground and 3 receptions last week and with this probably being a close game they should use him a lot in this one. He did however fumble a couple of times on Sunday which won’t get down well with the coaching staff. Last year he scored once in their games vs. the Giants, but somewhere I tend to target him is the passing game and he had 25 and 35 yards against them through the air. There’s a worry about JD McKissic getting touches in the passing game, but while he played 36% of snaps on Sunday he received 1 carry and 1 target. I think we’re fine.
So I would expect Taylor Heinicke to attempt more than 15 targets this week but his team is based around the defense and run-game so probably not too many more than that in a game that I think their defense will be on top. Obviously we’ve not seen a whole lot from Heinicke but he’s a mobile runner and willing to get the yards. At least 3 rushing attempts in the 3 games he’s been involved in last season and this including 46 yards and a TD vs. the Buccs in the playoffs last year.
The passing game usually revolves Terry McLaurin and his ability. He was looking like he’d be on for a big year with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center but he’s done it all his career without that kind of guy and he’ll have to prove he can again for a few more weeks. He will win in contested situations and has a lot of pace, fun guy to watch. Last year with Heinicke under center it was Cam Sims who was the centre of attention for him with 13 targets in that Buccs game. That position might have been taken by Dyami Brown though who only caught one pass last week but was target 4 times. Not great but when you consider they threw it 21 times between them it’s pretty much a 20% target share. Adam Humphries came in over the summer and is a slot guy, but with Logan Thomas there he will probably at the lower end of receptions. Thomas was expected to be one of the more consistent tight ends in the league under Fitz and should still get involved. He did have the 1 receiving TD on Sunday.
The defense should be all over this Giants offensive line. It’s rated one of the best in the league and it’s where Washington need to be good to win games. They added strength on strength over the summer and in a game like this against an OL like this, it should feast.
Messy game then?
I won’t be getting up at 1am for this one. On paper it should be a Washington win. I think their defense will be all over Daniel Jones and won’t give him much time.
HOWEVER the voodoo of Daniel Jones against Washington doesn’t make sense, but to win as many games against one team as the others combine has to be something?!
There’s a few angles for me here. I like Gibson receiving yards again, It’s up to 18.5 now which doesn’t offer a whole lot of wiggle space, but he’s going to be around there. You’re getting just over Even money on him scoring at Will Hill, I think he gets more carries here, so he’s not a bad price but after being stung on Sunday I’ll leave it.
Dyami Brown was targeted a lot and played with Heinicke through camp, he was at 29.5 receiving yards but has bumped up to 32.5 now after being tipped up by the guys at @Beattheline_ on twitter.
I have had a small bet on Kadarius Toney at 16/1 (now 14/1) but literally half a point. Figure he will get more involved as the season goes on and it was a standout price on him.
Talking of the guys at @Beattheline_ on twitter. They have a bet that they’ve been following for a while now which hit in 4/4 games last week all around even money, give them a follow on twitter and have a listen if you want to jump on the bandwagon for that one. They do things far more regimented than myself religiously following the numbers and locking in closing line value which is the key if you want to
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