So, not the start I wanted on here last week, personally I had a great weekend, but the selections I picked out at the end of the previews last week fell flat, in fact I only hit 1 of the TD scorers. On the other side of things the two props I recommended both came in. Annoyingly I had a couple of doubles with Lat. Murray involved on Monday but didn’t get time to put out a preview.
There’s something in the pipeline for a new venture in the coming weeks which I’ll share on here once it gets going, exciting times and a new way to get information out there which I’m looking forward to.
If you’re looking for Draftkings advice then check out our sister site NFL-DFS.com for Tom’s lineup advice.
Also a shout out to @Beattheline_ on twitter who hit 4/4 on a specific bet last week that I’ll be following this week.
Buffalo Bills -3.5 @ Miami Dolphins: 48
The Bills suffered a shock defeat at home to the Steelers last week as they allowed 17 points in the 4th quarter of the game, thanks in part to a blocked punt which was returned for a touchdown. It was rough on the Bills who moved the ball well but couldn’t punch it in. They finished with over 100 yards more than the Steelers on the night.
It’s hard to take much from that game, it seems like it was “just one of those” and they’ll get better as they move forward. Allen looked fine, Diggs and Beasley had 27 targets between and Emmanuel Sanders was the WR3 for them, but it was Gabriel Davis with the TD on his one redzone target. TE Dawson Knox hauled in all 4 of his to make an interesting prop player for the coming week.
One of the shocks of the week for me was Zack Moss not in the roster for the first game. There’s been no real reason given other than Matt Breida being the RB2 and more active on special teams. So I’ve no idea who gets the nod this week, it does seem that Devin Singletary will be the RB1 though, he had a good day with 72 from 11 carries which against that Steelers D was very good.
The Dolphins scraped a win against the Patriots in a predictably low-scoring affair where, on paper, the Patriots were comfortably the better team, but the Dolphins defense is very good and helped them to the a 17-16 win. There were pre-game issues on the offensive line so it’s tough to judge them too much but it seemed Tua did well under pressure and was the Dolphins as a whole were efficient
It was a successful debut for Jaylen Waddle who found the endzone with a well-designed play to get the connection up and running in the NFL. Parker was the most targeted player and dump offs to Myles Gaskin were still in style as well. I was expecting a big game from Mike Gesicki but he caught neither of his two targets, the Bills aren’t usually very good vs. the TE so hopefully he’ll do something this week.
I think the Bills bounce back, and with their recent record against the Dolphins I’d expect them to cover, I would lean under the total, could be a tight game.
Boylesports still has 5/1 on Zack Moss who missed out last week but they couldn’t punch in short TDs so he might get some work in the redzone. I like Gaskin o3.5 recs and despite 0 last week, o2.5 on Gesicki.
Cincinnati Bengals +2 (1.5) @ Chicago Bears: 44.5
WHODEY BABY! It should have been a more comfortable win for the Bengals but poor coaching allowed the Vikings back into it before the game winning kick in OT. It’s nice they have a kicker who can make those kicks finally.
Burrow looked good after a shakey start, connection with Chase was awesome, Mixon looked very good on the ground and the tackles didn’t allow a single pressure. The interior OL wasn’t perfect, a few blown coverages caused pressure, that will need fixing. However it looked all right on offense. The defense was good too, allowing only 60 yards on the ground to Dalvin Cook is a big improvement on last year. Crazy that when $100m signings are healthy they can make a difference.
The Bears were schooled in LA by the Rams, not the worst loss. The discussion this week will be whether they give Justin Fields more game-time or not. I think they’ll start Dalton and he’ll throw short passes. They’ll run Montgomery a lot, who’s the second leading rusher after two weeks (behind Mixon). Cole Kmet caught 5 of 7 targets. Unsurprisingly Allen Robinson led the team in targets, he’s rather good.
I have no idea on this one, I was nicely surprised by my team, they looked all right. The Bears played one of the better teams in the league with a full off-season to prepare so it’s no surprise they looked poor against them. If I was forced I’d take the Bears winning it. However, no bet. Marquise Goodwin led the Bears in yards last week catching 4/4, he’s still 9/1 at PP/Betfair to score tonight. Cole Kmet recs is one of my bets here though, over 3.5 at 11/10 on Skybet
Denver Broncos -6 @ Jacksonville Jaguars: 45.5
Mixed weekends for these two, the Broncos did what was expected in beating the Giants and embarrassing their OL in the process. Teddy did what was required; he didn’t give the ball away and threw a couple of TDs. Melvin Gordon got the score on the ground but Javonte Williams got more carries with similar efficiency (barring a breakaway 70 yard TD for Gordon) They did lose Jerry Jeudy though which will hurt but their WR group is actually quite deep so Tim Patrick and KJ Hamler will step up this week.
The Jaguars were shambolic and instantly stories arose of discord in the changing room there with Urban Meyer struggling in his first season as a head coach. Trevor Lawrence was staring down receivers and despite throwing 3 TDs, was picked 3 times as well. They couldn’t get the run game going and the defense was a mess in allowing the Texans 37 points.
The Broncos are beloved by the sharps this year and should continue their easy start to the season (they have the Jets next week as well) I like the look of a few TD scorers for them in this one, Patrick, Javonte (3/1ish) and Albert O (5/1) – Trying to figure which one will be my main issue. The Broncos should win and cover, everything leans their way.
Houston Texans +13.5 @ Cleveland Browns: 47.5
I thought the Texans would struggle to win 2 games this year, and that might still be the case with two games agianst the Jaguars, but fair play to them, Tyrod looked great and is now 7-0 ATS as a starter over the last 4 years. Cooks was the deep threat as expected, Amendola in the slot, and a fair bit of use for Pharoah Brown at tight end last week. It was Mark Ingram leading the way on the ground with 26 carries and a TD. That was against apparently the worst team in the league this week they face one of the best.
The Browns looked good in defeat last week against the Chiefs but unfortunately you’ve got to be perfect to beat them and they made a mistake. It was about as we expected though, Chubb doing the work on the ground, 83 and 2 TDs, and Baker looking pretty damn good in all fairness. After a rough second season he’s looking the part now with a great OL and good coaching. He spread the ball around with Landry, Njoku and rookie Schwartz getting 5 targets each.
Schwartz is an interesting one, I expected Donovan Peoples-Jones to be the third target but the small sample size we’ve got suggests it will be Schwartz, although DPJ was on the field considerably more. With Odell Beckham confirmed out already it should be both of them, although they’re both shorter than I’d like.
Obviously I’m backing the Browns to win, I think they’ll cover but I’m not touching this spread. In all honesty 4/6 for Chubb at Hills to score isn’t actually THAT bad, he may well get another couple, although the 9/5 on Hunt was definitely more tempting, he’s now in to Evens.
Las Vegas Raiders +6 @ Pittsburgh Steelers: 46
Two shock winners in week one with the Raiders properly opening the Allegiant stadium with a win against the beaten-up Ravens and the Steelers defense getting it done in Buffalo after they had scored ZERO at the half. Jon Gruden came out this week saying Darren Waller is the best player he’s ever had and he’ll get the ball to him as much as possible. Interestingly Hunter Renfrow had the most red zone targets for them on Monday (9/2 for Renfrow at PP)
I am terrible at judging the Raiders, but we do know it’s a short week for them and they probably had a few beverages after that game on the strip. We also know that Big Ben does better at home.
We know that Josh Jacobs is out for this one, it looks like Peyton Barber will be the “lead back” ahead of Kenyan Drake… he is more of a straight forward runner so I guess it makes sense, but it’s a tough defense to run against anyway.
Big Ben was one of the worst QBs last week as their offensive line was dismal on it’s first proper outing since being re-built so it can only get better, it meant that despite Najee Harris having 100% of snaps he didn’t do a whole lot on debut, again, that will improve.
The Steelers defense is very good, fair play.
I would lean the Steelers covering the spread here, but I won’t be touching this one.
Los Angeles Rams -3.5 @ Indianapolis Colts: 48
Matthew Stafford started life with the Rams in style last week. The Rams had 2 TDs of over 50 yards in a season of Jared Goff… they did that in one game last week as they dismantled the Bears from the off. He finished on 20/26, 321 yards and 3 TDs. Efficient. Darrel Henderson led the way on the ground with Michel only getting 1 carry after his trade from the Patriots.
The Colts controlled the clock against the Seahawks but lost convincingly. It was a weird game for them with their running backs Taylor and Hines topping the receiving lines suggesting that Wentz was dumping the ball off, a lot, and those two should get a lot of work this week with Pittman and Campbell both on the injury report coming into the game. That would mean, I guess Zach Pascal as the WR1 which isn’t a great place to be.
More of the same this week? The Colts secondary isn’t great and I think Stafford should be able to put up points in this one. I like the Colts, they’re well coached but is Carson Wentz any good? They lost to the Jags in week 1 last year before bouncing back after that.
I don’t have much of a read on this one, I’d say the Rams win and cover, but I know I’m high on them from pre-season and confirmation bias is a thing so I won’t be backing them over the 3. Mike Stachan (7/2 at PP, but 14s at Hills) for the Colts is a random punt if Campbell and Pittman miss out.
New England Patriots -6 @ New York Jets: 43
Two teams who both lost in week 1, but in very different circumstances. The Patriots were the better team against the Dolphins while the Jets were destroyed by the Panthers although the scores were both close in the end.
The Pats have said they will lessen the workload for Damien Harris after last weeks late fumble but he’ll still get most of the carries, and over evens for him to score seems fine to me. 13/2 on Stevenson at Hills may be worth a shot as well in the expectation they control the game and do cut Harris’ carries a little.
The Patriots should cover here, and they should do it comfortably, in probably a low scoring game. Damien Harris 11/10 (PP/Betfair) and backup Rhamondre Stevenson at 13/2 (WillHill) would be my shots here.
New Orleans Saints -3.5 @ Carolina Panthers: 44.5
I… have no idea. The Saints smashed the hapless Packers last weekend, something that I didn’t see coming. I was admittedly low on the Saints coming into the season so is this more the Saints being good with Jameis, or Aaron Rodgers fucking up his franchise in a paddy? We do know the Saints have a very good defense which must have helped last week. The Panthers were all over the Jets but couldn’t rack up the points. They were solid on defense and Christian McCaffrey reminded us of what we all missed last year with him out for most of it.
So… Are the Saints legit still? I actually quite like Jameis and was hoping he’d do well, and he did what he had to do last week well, 5 TDs from just 14 completions shows that the team got him in positions and he got them finished off. Alvin Kamara will be the main focus of the offense obviously, 20 carries and 3 receptions for him last week. It was assumed Callaway would be the main man in the WR group but he didn’t do much. Adam Trautman was the most targeted player although finished with just 18 yards.
I have been high on the Panthers coming into the season and the return of McCaffrey obviously makes them more fun to watch, just the casual 187 yards from 30 touches on his return from injury last week. It’s tough to judge the Panthers on week 1 either as the Jets were poor, but things look good for the Panthers coming in. Terrace Marshall was someone I was looking at in drafts and he had a good debut behind DJ Moore who was great again. The worry for them is/was Sam Darnold, he was protected well last week and did his job, this week may be very different.
It seems stupid to not lean to the Saints here, the history is on their side but it will be a tougher game than last week. I would have to lean over the total though. After scoring twice last Juwan Johnson is still 5/1 at Hills, but I’m hitting the props here with Adam Trautman o25.5 at 10/11 (Hills) I was also looking at Terrace Marshall o31.5 yards but this is a good Saints defense so I’ll skip it this week
San Francisco 49ers -2.5 @ Philadelphia Eagles: 49
The 49ers benched Trey Sermon, then lost Raheem Mostert very early against the Lions but went on to win by 8, a margin which is far shorter than the game actually was as the Lions racked up garbage time points while the Eagles murdered the Falcons in Atlanta.
The 49ers have said that Sermon will be active this week which muddles things a little for everyone who picked up Elijah Mitchell after he dominated the backfield catches last week. Sermon was higher drafted and thought of in pre-season so I’ve no idea who gets the ball here. I would assume he’ll stick with Mitchell to start after his performance last week but it’s Shanahan so I’ve no idea. What we do know is that they’ll be able to produce as all RBs who play for the 49ers tend to.
The other story this week has been Brandon Aiyuk who was in the dog house and Shannie has come out saying to play more snaps he needs to be better than the other players. So it was Deebo who had the huge game last week with 189 and a TD. I said he’d be the main man because of a knock to Aiyuk but didn’t expect that big a game. This week? Again, no idea. I would expect it to be Deebo, Aiyuk and then Sherfield. Probably all behind George Kittle.
They seem happy enough with Jimmy G, although Trey Lance came in on the first drive to throw a TD with his only pass attempt of the game. He was mixed in more and had a couple of rushing attempts as well.
It’s tough to judge the Eagles as the Falcons looked utterly terrible. However you do need to give credit to the Eagles defense which dominated up front and gave them a relatively easy game. There’s a lot of concern over whether Hurts is a decent QB or not. Well. Who probably not from a passing sense but that doesn’t really matter in the modern game, his mobility opens up the whole offense especially for Miles Sanders who has had many big games since Hurts came in. He had 74 rushing yards and 39 rec. yards but no score for them.
Devonta Smith got on the scoresheet on his debut and led the team with 71 yards, Dallas Goedert for the bulk of the redzone targets though, catching 3 of 4 for one TD. 11/4 best price for him here.
Hurts makes this team fun, the defense is their strength but they should put up points. This should be a cracking game and I think the right choice to be the televised game on Sky. I have to say the 49ers win and cover but it should be high scoring.
Atlanta Falcons +12.5 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 51.5
How the hell do the Falcons win this one? They were dominated last week at the line of scrimmage by the Eagles, and they only brought 4 men most of the time to generate the pressure, the Bucs blitzed more than anyone in the league last week, if they bring 5 over half the time this week it could be a long painful night for Matt Ryan behind a sieve of an offensive line.
The Falcons have offensive talent in Ridley and Pitts, but other than that there’s not a lot more there. Mike Davis is one of the poorer starting running backs in the league and going against the best run D, don’t expect much. Ridley is a real talent though, 50 yards and/or a TD in 8 consecutive games is the longest streak in the league. The offensive line issues make me want nothing to do with this team for a few weeks especially in this matchup.
The Bucs are coming off a long rest after playing in the opener last Thursday. They weren’t completely convincing but won the game with Antonio Brown rolling back the years and putting on a show. That’s the beauty of having 3 top WRs. You stop one or two of them, but the third will get you. On the deck they started Ronald Jones but ditched him quickly for Fournette. I would say Lenny starts this week but it will probably be Rojo still. My boy Gio only got touches on the final drive of the game. Oh shit. Gronk looked GOOOOOD. He’s healthy and playing well.
I obviously have the Bucs winning and frankly they should cover, but I won’t touch that. It’s a rare “cover 13 points and under” lean for me though. I just don’t see the Falcons scoring more than 10.
Minnesota Vikings +4 @ Arizona Cardinals: 50.5
I mostly watched the Vikings lose to the Bengals last week and they have issues, they were poor defensively and the offensive line had a TON of holding penalties as they struggled to stop the Bengals pass rushers, and that’s not an area they’re strong.
Cousins was fine, he’s always fine. He gave Thielen a couple of TDs and Jefferson had some big receptions of course. They used Conklin as their tight end so he could be one to look far against a Cardinals team who typically struggle against the position. Cook will be looking for better, but the Cardinals held Derrick Henry to his worst in a long time last week.
The Cardinals smashed the Titans, mainly up front with Chandler Jones finishing with 5 sacks on the evening. On the offensive side it’s tough not to like watching Kyler Murray he scrambles when needed but he usually keeps his eyes downfield and made some big plays due to that ability. He found Nuk Hopkins for a couple of scores and the forgotten man Christian Kirk bagged himself two as well after being expected to be WR4 behind Hopkins, Green and Moore. Luckily for them the Cards play a lot of 4 WRs so they should all be on the field a lot.
Unsurprisingly for me Edmonds was the better running back on the day although he and Connor shared carries to a large extent. 58/49% of snaps for the two respectively.
It’s tough to not over-react from week 1. I didn’t expect the Cards to win and they were very impressive. I did think the Vikings would struggle though and they did, so on the road again I don’t see them being able to turn things around this quickly. Cards win and cover. Lean over the total.
Dallas Cowboys +3 @ Los Angeles Chargers: 54.5
POOOOOINNNNNNNNTTTTSSSSSSSSS. Quite rightly the highest total of the week after what we saw from the Cowboys last week. Dak looked very good in his return and they scored 31 on the Superbowl champions, however they allowed 33 and it could have been more for the Bucs. So as last season, poor defensively, dangerous on offense. The Chargers were in a lower scoring game but got the win in Washington. They are back home for this one however there’s every chance there’s more Cowboys fans in there than Chargers.
The worry for offensive worry for Cowboys fans will be Zeke. Did he look all right last week? He was facing a team who it’s impossible to run on, so I won’t hold that against him but is the burst there still? I’ll hold me vote on that one. They will be without Michael Gallup with an ankle injury so Cedrick Wilson who had a good camp comes in behind Cooper and Lamb who both looked good in week 1.
Justin Herbert faced one of the toughest defensive lines in the league last week and was pressured on just 6 of 43 drop backs, quite a performance from the offensive line in front of him, it allowed him to finish with 337 yards and a TD. The new coaching looks like it will mean more for the WRs, Allen and Williams had 13 and 12 targets respectively last week with tight end Jared Cook behind them two with 8. It looks like it should be a concentrated attack in the passing game.
Austin Ekeler was a worry with a hamstring strain but played and did well last week, although his lack of involvement in the passing game will be a worry to owners of him in fantasy, hopefully it was just them limiting him due to the injury.
Obviously I like the Overs here, regards to the spread? No idea. All TD prices are poor due to the expected points, so nothing on that aspect.
Tennessee Titans +6.5 @ Seattle Seahawks: 54
Don’t over-react to week 1. This is the prime example. The Titans were stuffed by the Cardinals and the Seahawks beat their divisional rivals quite comfortably. Was that a proper representation of those teams?
Derrick Henry had his worst game since October last year with 58 yards last week. The offensive line struggled and they couldn’t get the ball moving and frankly if you stop Henry, you stop the Titans. Taylor Lewan on the left hand side of the line was on twitter admitting he was schooled by Jones, I doubt he’ll be that bad again this year, and it’s Jamal Adams blitzing that they’ll have to watch out for here.
Tannehill finished with 21/35 for 212 and a TD, he did manage to rush one in to save his fantasy day at least, but with Julio and AJ Brown on the field more was expected from the passing game, it was actually Chester Rogers finishing with the most yards last week. That will surely change and the size of the main two should be good enough to beat most defenses.
Russell Wilson is still good then. 18/23 for 254 and FOUR TDs. That’s pretty efficient. My worries of it being a shallow roster for the Seahawks remain as Lockett and Metcalf had 160 of the 254 yards, but they’re a hell of a top two to be throwing to. Will Dissly was back and managed to survive the game without injury, which is more than Rashaad Penny managed at running back. It was all Chris Carson back there with 91 yards.
The Titans defense isn’t great so the top two for the Seahawks should again be able to get free and make some catches.
I would take the Titans with the points, but it’s not one I’ll be backing anywhere. A high total but there’s good reason for that.
Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 @ Baltimore Ravens: 53.5
Two of the top teams in the AFC face each other here, as they did last season. They have had very different starts to the season though, the Chiefs beat possibly their main competitor last week with a win over the Browns while the decimated Ravens lost a crazy game in Vegas against the Raiders.
Last season the Chiefs put on a show despatching the Ravens with ease in week 3 as they held Lamar Jackson to just 97 passing yards while Mahomes on the other side of the ball put up 385. Now in fairness Lamar’s strength isn’t his passing and that’s not the way the Ravens go, but the game was over by half time and it was very poor from the Ravens. It’s something that worries a lot of us as they tend to spank the lower teams and lose to the better ones, something that’s been a criticism of them for a few years now. It will take a big performance in a game like this for them to lose that tag.
The Ravens have had a rough few weeks though, losing JK Dobbins and then Gus Edwards to season ending injuries. Add to that Marcus Peters on defense and this week Ronnie Stanley from the offensive line and it’s looking rough. This is what it feels like being a Bengals fan. It usually happens to us.
They started Ty’son Williams last week but Latavius Murray came off the street to get a TD against the Raiders and they promoted Devonta Freeman from the practise squad in the week as well so Ty’son’s time might be limited. Murray fits in well with what they want to do and I don’t think it will be long before he takes the main running back role for the team. Lamar will continue to rush despite a fumble last week.
The passing game is usually tough to call for the Ravens but they did add some targets for Lamar over the summer. Last week saw Sammy Watkins lead the team in yards with 96 and he faces the team who let him go here. Much like all off the pass catchers here, he’s very hit or miss. Mark Andrews is the most reliable face in the passing game but only had 20 yards last week. Ty’son Williams is a good pass-catcher though and should get involved there.
Talking of concentrated offenses… The Chiefs are winning games easily with basically 3 players. Mahomes, Kelce and Hill. It just so happens that those three are the top of their respective position groups so it works. Last week… Mahomes 27 completions for 337, 197 to Hill and 76 to Kelce from 17 of those receptions. You just can’t stop them. It’s actually quite absurd.
On the ground they paid a lot of money to strengthen their offensive line to help both protect Paddy and get the run game going but I think there’s a chance that Clyde Edwards-Helaire just isn’t very good. He had 14 carries for 43 last week and a few receptions, but hasn’t done much to impress whenever I’ve seen him. Admittedly he was coming of an injury last week so I might be a little harsh on him. I thought Jerrick McKinnon would get touches behind him only got 4 offensive snaps.
I think the injuries are too much for Balitmore. They struggle against the best teams anyway and that’s made me move them down even more. I think the Chiefs win and cover.
Betting round-up (2 pt stake unless stated)
- Patriots -6
- Rams -3.5
- Bills -3.5
- Chiefs -3.5
- 2 team teaser bringing the Pats and Broncos down to 0 – 5/6 (Redzone) – 4 points
- Marquise Goodwin anytime – 9/1 (PP)
- Albert O anytime – 5/1 (PP)
- Damien Harris anytime – 11/10 (PP/Betfair) – NAP – 4 points stake
- Cole Kmet o3.5 recs. – 11/10 (Skybet)
- Adam Trautman o25.5 – 10/11 (Hills)
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