I’ve been very lax on doing anything during the week for my site, so Monday night and Thursday nights have fallen by the way-side, even the Jags v Bengals didn’t get much of a preview. But I’ll put something together for tonight’s game.
I would love to be a biased moron, but this is by some distance the best matchup on Thursday nights so far this year, and it should be a cracker. Luckily it’s my day off tomorrow, so I’m planning on at least getting up for the game. Whether I make it past half-time is a different thing, but I really like the Rams this year and could do with watching a full (half) game or so of them.
Los Angeles Rams -2 (1.5 at Skybet) @ Seattle Seahawks; 53.5
First off the plug for some of my paid work, all clicks appreciated, I would assume it makes me look good if it gets more – https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nfl/nfl-week-5-best-bets-rams-vs-seahawks-thursday-night-football-picks/209458/
That preview was done on Monday (as all Thursday night previews from myself are if you want to get an early look at my thoughts on each TNF game…) so things might have changed, however the bet I put out is still valid, I think this could be a corker.
The NFC West have been playing each other over the last couple of weeks, the Cardinals beating the Rams and the Seahawks beating the 49ers. I was shocked at how well the Cardinals did against the Rams, but the Seahawks win was predictable as they always beat them, and they faced a rookie QB for the second half of that game.
This game though is interesting. The Rams match up well against the Seahawks and the probable loss of Chris Carson to a “chronic neck injury” seems more than a little concerning. They seem to be suggesting it’s a regular thing and sometimes it flares up, but it doesn’t sound good going forward.
I would assume it means a lot more work for Alex Collins who looked the better back last week and ended up finding the endzone late on to let him do his Irish dancing celebration, they will probably give Travis Homer and Deejay Dallas a few touches as well in rotation. I actually really like Collins as a back but I can never get who the Seahawks will use in the run-game.
Overall it SHOULD mean more passing from Russ, but they are averse to such things, so we’re stuck relying on him being super-efficient from 23 attempts per game, and as he’s really quite good, he does manage to do that for the most part.
His main man is… er, is it Lockett or Metcalf? Probably Tyler Lockett from what we’ve seen so far, he’s had 20 receptions for 333 and 3 TDs averaging 16.6 per reception. He’s finds himself wide open, or streaking away from DBs more than he should do, and Russ loves him some Lockett. It has seemed to me that Lockett has done far more than DK Metcalf, but I’m wrong. DK is also on 20 recs, 285 yards and 3 TDs as well. – The worry for either of them here is being covered by Jalen Ramsey who’s had good success against both of these.
Outside of those guys, Freddie Swaim has added something to the offense with a couple of TDs. Tight end is a tough one, Gerald Everett missed out at the weekend after being placed on the Covid list, he’s cleared a couple of tests, but it will be late notice whether he’s playing or not. I will assume he is. It probably means a drop down for Will Dissly who did little on Sunday.
The LA Rams need the win to keep up pace in the division. After losing to the Cardinals they’re a game behind in division and can’t really afford to be too much further behind, losing here means they’d be two back on the Seahawks.
Matthew Stafford is great, admittedly a poor one last week, but I expect him to bounce back against a poor Seahawks defense which his big play guys should be able to take advantage of.
Darrell Henderson is back and had 14 carries for 89 yards at the weekend as well as 5 receptions on the night. He will be the pre-dominant guy with maybe a couple of rushes for Sony Michel. He’s a good back and his line has risen through the week with a few of the good guys on twitter tipping him up earlier.
Cooper Kupp had a poor game. ONLY 64 yards at the weekend, no score. He’ll be back in this one, again the Seahawks defense isn’t great, Football outsiders has them as 27th vs. the Pass and 17th vs. the run. Can… Matthew Stafford take advantage of a shit defense? Sure. Van Jefferson led the team on Sunday with 90 and a TD from 6 receptions, it was his second TD of the season and he could be dancing in the moonlight against these chumps. Robert Woods found he endzone as well. He’s been somewhat of an after-thought in this new aggressive Rams offense. Desean Jackson will get open once of twice and it’s up to Stafford to find him deep.
Tyler Higbee has been on the injury report this week but practised fully during the week so he should be playing here.
You’ve probably guessed through the preview that I’m leaning one way and I’m fine taking the Rams on the road.
The underdogs have covered all 3 TNF games so far, but I think the Rams and Cardinals are a step above the Seahawks and the 49ers, so I’m all right taking the team I think is better.
Rams win and cover and the Over.
In terms of bets…
I think you’ve got to take near evens on Kupp getting another for the season
- Cooper Kupp anytime TD – 10/11 (PP/Hills)
I will admit I looked at Over the highest score on Paddypower, for some reason I’ve got in my head an amazing high-scoring game, but o68.5 was the highest on there and at 4/1, it’s not a bet.
I’ll stick with Kupp anytime, it’s not expansive, but he’ll be fine.
I have set-up a Showdown contest for tonight’s game as I expect it to be an exciting one – Showdown Contest $3 entry with top 5 getting paid out (if 20 enter)
Featured image from downtownrams.com