Carolina Panthers +4 @ Dallas Cowboys: 51.5
The first real game of Carolina’s schedule. I am desperate to take a victory lap here as I loved the Panthers coming into the season and backed them to finish 2nd in the division, but they’ve had such a cupcake start to the schedule it’s very skewed so far, even the win vs. the Saints, as impressive as it was has asterisks against it and now they’ve lost Christian McCaffrey for a few weeks.
So, I really like the Panthers, but I don’t think they’ll be able to keep up with the offensive firepower from the Cowboys, they ran the Buccs very close, beat the Chargers in a close one and smashed the Eagles last week.
I have taken the Cowboys on the handicap, the pros won’t because of the huge rest disparity, the worst it could be in the regular season with the Panthers playing Thursday and the Cowboys on Monday night, I may be stupid doing it, but I like the Cowboys to win and cover. Panthers over-rated at 3-0.
Cleveland Browns -1 @ Minnesota Vikings: 51.5
The first Sky game of the night should be a cracker, Kevin Stefanski returning to his former team, where he may well have been in charge had Zim not had a winning season. Both like to accentuate the run and play off of that, so expect a lot of Chubb/Hunt and Cook/Mattison here.
If you look like for like at the offensive skill positions then it should go to the Vikings really, I prefer Cousins to Mayfield, Cook to Chubb, and Thielen and Jefferson to Odell and “insert player name here” for the Browns, but the rest of the matchups go to the Browns and they should win here.
Jefferson continued his fantastic home record by finding the endzone last week (if he could have done it again I’d have been £1,400 richer) and the WRs have a decent matchup tonight too. It looks like Cook will be back this week so Mattison probably takes a back seat again after his good performance last week.
Odell looked fine on his return from his ACL, but the rest of the pass catching group is limited, Austin Hooper probably the 2nd target, but as long as Kareem Hunt keeps doing it from the backfield they’ll keep moving the ball.
I like the Browns to cover here.
Detroit Lions +3 @ Chicago Bears: 41
https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nfl/lions-bears-free-nfl-picks-week-4/208420/
Fuck knows.
Er… D’Andre Swift is expected “to get more” this week, Jamaal Williams and him should get a ton of work, there’s not much else there. The Bears should be able to slow TJ Hockenson and there’s basically no WRs.
The Bears… I have no idea. Last week was a disgrace. Was it Fields’ fault? The coaching? The OL? 1 net yard of offense is ridiculous, 47 yards of total offense.
How the fuck am I meant to judge a team after that piece of shit performance? Fuck you Matt Nagy.
Nothing. Nothing at all on this game. Ignore it and enjoy the rest of the day.
Houston Texans +17 (seventeen) @ Buffalo Bills: 47
Shit. Probably best to ignore this one too.
Three years ago the Bills went into Minnesota as 16.5 underdogs and beat the Vikings 27-6. Will the Texans pull off a similar feat. here?
No.
The Bills love to stomp on teams and that may well happen. I thought. Think? The Bills will take a step back this year, but after a shock loss to a pile of shit team in week 1, they’ve smashed the Dolphins and Washington in consecutive weeks and may well do the same here.
Brandin Cooks will get a TON of targets, I like Zack Moss for a TD again after 3 in 2 games so far this season his random healthy scratch in week 1.
Obviously I can’t take the handicap here, only bet for me here. Zack Moss TD – 2/1 (Hills)
Indianapolis Colts +2.5 @ Miami Dolphins: 41.5
https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nfl/colts-dolphins-free-nfl-picks-for-week-4/208714/
Another I’m not too fussed about. The Colts put Quentin Nelson on IR this week. That’s painful for a roster which has already highlighted some huge deficiencies. Wentz will play and you’re got to hope he’s feeling better than last week. It’s a tough matchup for the passing game, especially Michael Pittman and Parris Campbell on the outside against Howard and Jones. So the Colts will need to rely on the run game of Taylor/Hines and Zach Pascal. All of whom are probably a decent look for a score.
Pascal looks good at 29/10 (Hills) He’s scored 3 TDs on his team-leading 7 redzone targets this year. That’s pretty much as many targets as the rest of the team combined inside the 20.
The Dolphins? Offensive line is a shambles, Brissett is who he is although he killed me with the 4th and 8 TD last week, it won’t be expansive but manageable and it’s a REVENGE GAME for him here. He averaged 4.4 yards per attempt last week. That’s worse than his RBs. Although it does help betting with Mike Gesicki and Jaylen Waddle both in double-digit targets last week, yet both set at o3.5 receptions this week. Weird.
I had to make a pick for SBR, but this is a firm ignore from me.
Kansas City Chiefs -7 @ Philadelphia Eagles: 54
It’s now 1-13 for the Chiefs covering the spread. Realistically it should change here, but I won’t be taking that.
I worried in pre-season that the Chiefs were horribly shallow on offense, it’s basically Mahomes, Kelce and Hill, behind that you’re relying on Mahomes genius and that has hurt them so far this year. Have teams figured them out? I hope not because they’re fun. But it’s tough to win with the same game-plan each week and with other teams not respecting the run game. They need to fix Clyde and what he does. In fairness he did score last week, but he also fumbled again in a messy loss to a divisional rival.
The Eagles are down 3 offensive-linemen and that’s going to hurt them. I would hope they’ve learnt from Mondays’ loss in which they were dreadful, but it’s a rookie coach and it might stick. They have to run more than 3 times. Having a running back averaging 13.5 yards per carry and using his twice in a game is just strange. Miles Sanders is very good. Use him.
I’m Blaise on Jalen Hurts. He does what he does well, he doesn’t do what he doesn’t do very well at all. If they use him to his strengths then I think he’ll be a decent addition to the league, fingers crossed that happens and he restricts stupid mistakes.
I can’t take the Chiefs to cover, but I think they win. They need to. Chiefs in a teaser with the Packers
New York Giants +7 @ New Orleans Saints: 42
Giants haven’t won any games for the hundredth year in a row, they’re probably without Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton this week through injury, but thankfully John Ross is alive!
Saquon is back and looked fine last week in his first real start in a year, so at least they’ve got that to look forward to.
The Saints strength is their defense and it should do well against Daniel Jones. If you ignore the Covid week where they were clearly hit, then it’s been a fine start to the season for them where they stuffed Aaron Rodgers and smashed the Patriots.
The numbers for Jameis Winston are absurd. 148 yards – 5 TDs, 111 – 0; 2 INTs, 128 and 2 TDs. Just. Weird. For the record I think Jameis could be a fine QB in the NFL, however I have no idea without watching full games whether he has been serviceable or not this season after getting his eyes lasered.
It’s the first home game for New Orleans after hurricane Ida screwed things up. Will it bring more pressure or will the boost of playing in the Superdome help the Saints? I have to lean to the Saints covering, the Giants just aren’t very good.
Tennessee Titans -6 @ New York Jets: 44
A rough game for the Titans as they come into this one without AJ Brown or Julio Jones, meaning that er, Jack Doyle will be the most targeted player for them this week? Nick Westbrook-Ikhene or Chester Rogers? It seems a lot more likely that it’s 30+ carries for Derrick Henry and expecting him to hit 150+, at least 2 TDs? We might even see a bit of work for Jeremy McNichols who found the endzone last week. Maybe this is the week for Anthony Firkser to appear this season? o2.5 receptions is plus-money.
It’s fair to say that Zach Wilson has had a rough start as an NFL, he should at least have some time behind his line for the first time in his career tonight as the Titans pass rush is sub-optimal. Whether he can do anything with that is another thing, but they’ve got him a little help this week with Jamison Crowder returning and Denzel Mims actually allowed to play with Elijah Moore out.
The line has been dropping all week, and now it’s under a TD it’s a little more enticing to take the Titans. The pros liked the Jets at 7.5. I can’t back them, this is a good teaser leg, surely the Titans still win.
Washington Football Team -1.5 @ Atlanta Falcons: 47.5
If you wanted proof that great defense doesn’t translate year on year then Washington is it. They have dropped off considerably so far this year. This game could be the turn around for them though as the offensive line of the Falcons, is, well it’s offensive. “Young and Sweaty” (Dan Hanzus; 2021) should have good games here. Taylor Heinicke has been fine since he was forced into the lineup and his mobility adds something to them. It looks like Antonio Gibson is good to go after being on the injury report this week. Logan Thomas has 2 TDs from 3 games and is always reliable.
To say the least the Falcons have been disappointing this year. It turns out not protecting your non-mobile QB isn’t the best idea. Matt Ryan only throws the ball 10 yards at a time and the loss of Julio does seem to have affected them, we thought Calvin Ridley would step up but it turns out when you’re the only weapon on an offense it gets tougher. Russell Gage is out, so Olamide Zaccheaus is the 2? It’s crazy this team was in the Superbowl just a few years ago. One guy I do like though is Cordarrelle Patterson who has been getting a lot of the ball, 7 carries a week and targets have increased week on week.
C Patt o3.5 receptions best priced 8/11 at William Hill. As for the game, I can’t go away from Washington winning a poor game.
Arizona Cardinals +4.5 @ Los Angeles Rams: 54
A cracking game in prospect here as with both teams coming in unbeaten. It’s been an entertaining start for the Cardinals and Kyler Murray is into 2nd favourite for MVP after his start. He’s rushed in a TD in each of the first 3 games, thrown 7 TDs and is third in yards with 1,005. They love playing 4 WRs and have the group to do it now. Deandre Hopkins is playing through injury, Christian Kirk and AJ Green look good behind him and Rondale Moore started the season on fire before a dud last week. They’ve even somehow managed to get some production out of James Conner, scoring 2 last week as he and Chase Edmonds share the load at RB.
Matthew Stafford is sitting at 7/1 for MVP as well and leads the league in QBR early in the year. He’s thrown for 9 TDs after 4 against the Superbowl champs last weekend. The connection he’s got with Cooper Kupp is clear for all to see with 5 TDs so far this year, he leads the league in receptions, yards and TDs. Which is bad for Robert Woods who’s struggled so far. They finally have someone with the arm strength to get the ball downfield and Desean Jackson is the man who can take advantage of that, he had some huge catches last week while Van Jefferson gets involved too.
Darrell Henderson is back at running back which helps them there although the big lead allowed Sony Michel to have a decent game against a great run defense last week, so it could be more of a 60/40 split between them than having one guy doing it all.
I am high on the Rams and I think they win and cover here. Should be a cracking game. I might even try and stay sober for it.
Seattle Seahawks +2.5 @ San Francisco 49ers: 51.5
The other two in the NFC West take each other on as well. It’s a weird quirk of the division that certain teams tend to do well against others, the Rams are 9-1 straight up against the Cardinals over the last 10 while the Seahawks are 8-2 against the 49ers in that period.
The Seahawks are a weird one this year though they’ve not been scoring after half time, just 13 second half points so far, and none in the 3rd quarter. They’re a shallow offense, DK, Lockett and Carson. That’s about it. Lockett will be playing through a knee injury which looked very serious last week, and with Gerald Everett on the Covid list Will Dissly should get a few touches as well.
The 49ers have been riddled with injuries once again, their RB5 or 6, Elijah Mitchell is missing out this week, so it solidifies Trey Sermons role as the main back. George Kittle hasn’t really turned up this year and is questionable for this one as well, I’d assume he goes. Deebo has been the WR1 for them and done it well while Brandon Aiyuk is working his way back into favour. I think Shanahan is great but he does make it tough to figure out what they’re going to do week on week.
I would have thought the 49ers win this but the record leans to the Seahawks so I’ll be staying away.
Baltimore Ravens -1 @ Denver Broncos: 44
This is a game I circled last week. The Broncos have won all 3 of their games after beating the three worst teams in the league. In fairness they’ve done very well allowing just 26 points through 3 games, and they’ve scored in all bar one quarter of the season. This is their first real test though.
The Ravens were killed by injury before the season but have adapted well and this week have activated Le’veon Bell. I don’t think he’s very good any more but it’s another crease to the backfield with Ty’son Williams, Latavius Murray and obviously Lamar back there. Lamar has been limited with a back issue this week but will play.
He’ll be hoping his main receiver actually catches the ball this week. He’s been using Marqiuse Brown well and until last week it had been working well, the result against the Lions should have been out of sight. Mark Andrews led the team last time out and should do again here with the WRs facing a tough task against the Broncos defense.
Justin Tucker is the best kicker there’s ever been. He might break his 66 yard record in altitude here.
The Broncos are typically methodical with Teddy B under center, he does what he does, nothing special, but finds his guys and keeps the chains moving. They are missing 7 starters this week and lost their speed last week with KJ Hamler now out for the season with an ACL injury. So it might be even slower now with Tim Patrick, Courtland Sutton and… I guess Dionate Spencer? as the next man up. Should be more for Noah Fant and Albert Okwegbunam in the middle of the field.
Melvin Gordon has been dinged up this week but will play, he and Javonte Williams are a good duo back there and both will get involved in the passing game as well. Each scored a rushing TD last week and Williams could have had another but fumbled at the goal-line.
I have the Ravens to win. I still think they do, but I’m not as confident as I was last week.
Pittsburgh Steelers +6.5 @ Green Bay Packers: 45
Now, I appreciate I’m biased against this team, but the performance by the Steelers last week was one of the worst I’ve ever seen from an NFL team. Admittedly they had a few injuries, but Tyler Boyd is right. They gave up, long before the 4th and 10 dump off at the end of the game.
Big Ben “was injured” and shocking, I have said for a while now that he’s done and he has shown it this season, he can’t throw the ball downfield. It doesn’t help that the re-formed offensive line is a stinking mess. That line is killing the run game as well, Najee Harris hasn’t looked bad out in space but the ground attack is poor. Maybe they should have taken an offensive lineman in the draft rather than a RB.
Chase Claypool misses out today but Diontae Johnson is back and will get double-digit targets a few yards down the field, Juju is active as well despite not being able to take a hit. It should mean fewer targets for Najee this week after his 19 last week, which was absurd.
The defense hasn’t been great either. Minkah Fitzpatrick is one of the worst-rated safeties in the league this year.
Green Bay have had an up and down year after a dud in week one, but look back to form now after a last minute win against the 49ers last week. Never leave Aaron Rodgers 37 seconds to go the length of the field.
Aaron Jones has 5 TDs in his last 2 games, safe to say he’s keeping the role there despite some of us thinking that AJ Dillon might get more of the ball this year. They are without MVS this week so it may well be more deep shots for Davante Adams who remains one of the best in the league. He’ll get open and he’ll get the ball.
TJ Watt returning for the Steelers could mix this game up a little as the Packers offensive line isn’t very good this year, but I can’t see anything other than the Packers winning and covering here
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -7 @ New England Patriots: 49.5
Tom Terrific returns, the Pharoah, the GOAT, returns to the team who made him who he is, and he’ll be looking to smash them to bits. They allowed the roster to deplete to an extent it made him look shit, and he’s shown he’s not very bad at all. The league set this game up perfectly as he needs just 68 yards to break Drew Brees all-time passing record and doing it at Foxborough just makes sense.
That record will be done in about 5 minutes I’d imagine as the Bucs run game has been shite this year. It’s all about the passing game and even without Gronk they’ll be able to move the ball well. Despite the Patriots defense being pretty good this year, Godwin, Evans and Antonio Brown will all put up numbers. It’s the backup TE position that interests me, whether it’s Brate or OJ Howard the bookies think it’ll be Brate, you can get a good line on Howard rec. yards if you think he steps into the Gronk role. I do.
The run game is poor, Ronald Jones just doesn’t seem to be able to do it, and Leonard Fournette only plays in January apparently. They used Gio a lot last week in the passing game but he misses out here.
The Patriots use a lot of short passing as Mac Jones hasn’t been allowed to push the ball downfield yet. In fairness he doesn’t have much to throw the ball to as Agholor, Bourne and Meyers aren’t exactly elite. They do need more from big money TE signings Jonnu “drops” Smith and Hunter Henry haven’t impressed so far this year. They’ll try and use Damien Harris but they’re facing the best run D in the league so it won’t be easy. If anyone can figure it out it’s Bill Belichick though.
I have to take the Bucs covering here. It probably won’t be a pretty game though.
A very busy Sunday for me today, so I won’t be posting any bets at the moment, haven’t the time to get them set. There’s a few I’ve mentioned in the post though, so good luck if you follow any of them.
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