Atlanta Falcons +6.5 @ New Orleans Saints: 41.5
An NFC South clash to start off the evening. The Falcons have been crap for most of the year and things haven’t got better. Calvin Ridley is out for the foreseeable future as he’s dealing with life. So it’s basically Kyle Pitts and Cordarelle Patterson on offense. It probably means more targets for Pitts, but it also means he’s probably now going to see the opposition’s best cornerback, and that’s Lattimore here.
Patterson will get involved still running and catching the ball, Pitts will likely still get his targets but I don’t see how the Falcons really move the ball. Outside of those two it’s Russell Gage, Tajae Sharpe… Mike Davis on the deck. It’s not good.
The Saints side of the ball is pretty shit too, Jameis Winston is out for the year, so you’d have thought it would be Taysom Hill getting more snaps but apparently, Trevor Siemian is starting at QB tomorrow after beating the Bucs as the backup last week. He spread the ball around a lot but it was more on the defense than the offense.
With Siemian there you’ve got to expect a lot of Kamara. Outside of him, it’s going to be muddy. Ingram and Kamara will likely share carries as they did last week, I can’t call anything other than that. Taysom Hill is back from concussion, I wouldn’t be shocked if he actually saw a lot of plays as he did with Jameis.
Probably a horrible game in prospect. Have to lean Saints, and the under.
Buffalo Bills -14.5 @ Jacksonville Jaguars: 48.5
The Bills are the best team in the AFC so far, how they lost to the Steelers is beyond me. They do seem to play a shit team every other week which helps, but they do their job well. They rack up points and don’t concede much. #1 offense and defense in the league so far.
The Jags stink. It’s surely terrible coaching, but I’ve seen Lawrence miss a lot of open throws.
Bills win, probably cover. Might be <10 pts for the Jags.
Cleveland Browns +2 @ Cincinnati Bengals: 48
Ok ok ok. A huge game in the AFC North. Imagine saying that a couple of years ago.
The big news of the week other than Rodgers being “quirky” has been Beckham being released by the Browns which may well actually give them a bump. Things weren’t working and it’s best for both parties to move on. It probably means more for Landry who was realistically the WR1 when healthy even with Beckham there. Outside of him though the passing game isn’t deep. Donovan Peoples-Jones needs to step up in year two, Rashard Higgins probably becomes WR2, Anthony Schwartz is a rookie WR who now gets a bump.
Really though they’ll need to run more with Nick Chubb which shouldn’t be much of an issue as one of the best pure runners in the league, I would think it’ll be mainly him but with D’Ernest Johnson mixed in as well with Kareem Hunt still missing out. They’re without Tyler Conklin at right tackle which could hurt them.
Myles Garrett is on target to equal the sack record for the season, he may well get another one or two in this one despite the Bengals OL looking better this year. He’s a beast.
However, I do think the Bengals win this one, I think they’ll score too many for the Browns to keep up. Joe Burrow has been playing well on the whole despite too many interceptions. 6th in yards, 3rd in TDs thrown this season and the only QB with multiple TDs in every game this year. They have scored at least 17 points in every game this year and that was enough for the Steelers to beat the Browns last week.
Ja’Marr Chase had a quiet week in the loss last weekend, but he still scored and it should have been two. Tee Higgins actually leads them in targets when all 3 WRs are healthy while CJ Yew-Zah-Mah has had a good season and looked good vs. the Browns before injury last year. Mixon and Perine work well from the backfield.
The Bengals already have more sacks so far this year than they did in the whole of last season. They should be able to hit Baker and they should be a big worry for the Browns.
I think the Bengals are the better team right now, so I think they win, lean under, I don’t think the Browns put up many points.
Denver Broncos +10 @ Dallas Cowboys: 49
The Broncos aren’t a good team, they really tried to throw it away against Washington last week. Mel Gordon and Javonte Williams continue to share snaps in the backfield, the passing game should be better with Jerry Jeudy another week fresher. They’ll be without Noah Fant though who’s on the Covid list so I think a bigger role for Albert Okwuegbunam who looked good last week.
The Cowboys will have Dak back, but it may be a run-heavy game with Zeke playing a stormer. There are issues around all of their WRs this week which is a slight worry, Cooper is perpetually injured, CeeDee Lamb twisted an ankle in training and Michael Gallup still isn’t back, maybe a Cedrick Wilson game. Blake Jarwin is now on IR so that’s further bolstering for Dalton Schultz as the main tight end.
I think Dallas are a top 5 team at the moment, I can’t take them losing 10 points, but I won’t back Denver getting those, lean to the under as I don’t think the Broncos put up too many.
Houston Texans +5.5 @ Miami Dolphins: 46.5
Two of the worst teams in the league. Texans probably are, although the return of Tyrod Taylor to the starting lineup definitely makes them more interesting. He’ll probably chuck a load to Brandin Cooks who was the main man early in the season. The Texans actually won and looked good in the first half against the Browns with Tyrod there, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them win this. The stupid thing is they really don’t want to win, so I’m a little surprised they’re putting him back in there.
The Dolphins aren’t a good team this year either, Tua is questionable for this game but will play. The running game isn’t good but this is an easy matchup for them. Devante Parker is now on IR, so Waddle and Gesicki surely get most of the ball in this one.
Fucking terrible game. Texans win outright. Under.
Las Vegas Raiders -3 @ New York Giants: 47
It’s safe to say it’s been another rough week for the Raiders, maybe having a team in the city of sin wasn’t the best idea. But they’ve shown up well despite adversity this year and coming off their bye week should be fine.
Darren Waller returns to the line-up, and while I can’t ever judge the Raiders they should be fine on offense. It’s their pass rush who will win this game for them though, they should dominate against the Giants offensive line and get home to Daniel Jones a lot.
The Giants are once again missing pass catchers but Kadarius Toney at least starts the game. If recent form is anything to go by he’ll be injured fairly early on. He’s been targeted a lot in his game so I’ve got to think the same flow happens here. They’re without Saquon Barkley again, so Booker once more gets the snaps there.
It’s risky given the tumult for them this week and traveling across the country, but Daniel Jones has a horrendous home record 5-12 in his career, and I think the Raiders are the better team, coming off their bye. They cover. Probably unders.
Minnesota Vikings +6 @ Baltimore Ravens: 50.5
Should be a good game with both teams capable of putting up points on a good day.
They actually want to play fairly similar football, running the ball to set up the pass. The Vikings should be able to do that better with a better running game due to Dalvin Cook, but they were poor vs. a backup QB last week. That was in prime time and Kirk Cousins famously has issues winning games outside of 1pm kick-offs in the states.
The pass catchers should do well, Adam Thielen leads the team in TDs once more, Justin Jefferson should be able to move the ball and the tight end Tyler Conklin gets the best matchup he could in this one.
The Ravens had a great bye week, going back to the top of the division despite not playing with the Bengals losing to the Jets. The run game probably won’t change much so I’d imagine Lamar will be throwing it a lot again.
That means Marquise Brown down the field, rookie Rashod Bateman a little shorter and Mark Andrews in the slot getting a lot of the ball.
Ravens should be able to move the ball, but Cook might as well. I think the Ravens are the better team so I lean that way but it could be either if they’re on form. Despite what my F10Y betting compatriots say, I like the over.
New England Patriots +3.5 @ Carolina Panthers: 41.5
The Patriots had an impressive win in LA last week as they took over that stadium while the Panthers closed out a shitter against the Falcons.
I think this will be rough for the neutral as well with both teams wanting to run the ball. The Pats will probably give Damien Harris a lot of carries with the other chumps coming in to give him respite. The passing game isn’t great, there’s not much talent. Agholor the deep threat, Jakobi Meyers still unable to score and Hunter Henry seemingly getting the red zone targets.
Honestly though I think the defense is the strength of the patriots and they should be able to get ahead as they did in their last week.
It looks like Sam Darnold is a game-time decision coming off a shoulder and head injury. I’m sure they’ll test him and he’ll be fine but PJ Walker is there to step in if needed, even if he’s also shit. He threw for 3 completions from 22 targets when taking over from Darnold at QB.
They should have Christian McCaffrey back though which helps the team a hell of a lot no matter who is under center. The Panthers ran the ball 40+ times last week with Chuba, it will probably be up there with CmcC back even if they split carries.
I have to lean to the Patriots covering this, but on the road again against a team who will probably get a bump with their best player back. I’ve said under all week and that doesn’t change my mind.
Los Angeles Chargers -2 @ Philadelphia Eagles: 49.5
I’m utterly confused on the Chargers. So I’m out at the moment. They started the season well but have looked clueless against the Ravens and Patriots in the last two games, Herbert looking very out of sorts in both of them.
Austin Ekeler hasn’t been on the injury report this week after a random hip injury popped up last weekend which is nice, Allen has carried on his usual 6 for 80-odd but Mike Williams hasn’t been able to get going recently after a great start to the season. Jared Cook caused one of the interceptions last week with some miscommunicatoin but he’ll still be invovled in the gameplan tonight and there’s a few randoms who chip in occasionally.
The Eagles smashed the Lions last week running the ball 46 times in a rout. Obviously the week they have no Miles Sanders they run and run and run, the pricks. I’m hoping that’s them realising that running the ball is sensible when you’ve got a good O-line and they face the worst run defense in the league here so I would assume they’ll do similar with Boston Scott, Jordan Howard and Kenneth Gainwell.
Jalen Hurts obviously likes to run the ball as well. His favourite target is Dallas Goedert who has stepped up since Zach Ertz left with 70 and 72 yards in his last two. Devonta Smith’s numbers have dropped a little and Quez Watkins is the third target there.
A lot of people are questioning this line, as I’m thoroughly off of the Chargers at the moment I get it, but it might be a huge over-reaction. I’m still leaning the Eagles and the under as both try and promote the run game.
Arizona Cardinals +2.5 @ San Francisco 49ers: 45
This line has moved all week on Kyler Murray news. It looks like he’s a game-time decision but I’d imagine he’s out and the bookies seem to think that as well. That means Colt McCoy starting, one of the more experienced backups in the league but he’s no Kyler.
They’re without AJ Green as well on the Covid list, and probably without Nuk Hopkins with his hamstring injury, so really it’s a bit of a forfeit week for them. McCoy to Kirk isn’t exactly Kyler to Nuk. May mean a lot more on the ground for Conner and Edmonds in the backfield as they lean on the more reliable options, and Ertz at tight end, RBs and TEs are usually the backup QBs favourite guys.
The 49ers pushed them close in the first game with Trey Lance playing at QB. Jimmy G plays tonight and they’ll be hoping that Deebo is good to go, he’s quietly having an amazing season as they get him the ball in space and he takes in 50 yards at a time, he’s second in rec. yards and I’d imagine a million miles ahead in terms of YAC.
They aren’t sure how much Deebo will play, or Eli Mitchell who has run very well, so it might be JaMycal Hasty? Trey Sermon? Jeff motherfucking Wilson?! Love Big Jeff… Someone else having a huge game in the backfield.
George Kittle returns as well as the 49ers finally get a little healthier, although he’s expected to play half snaps at most.
With it likely to be Colt McCoy I can’t take the Cardinals, so 49ers. Nothing on the total, lean under
Green Bay Packers +7.5 @ Kansas City Chiefs: 48
Another injury hit game as Aaron Rodgers goes on the Covid list, safe to say it’s been a weird week for him after his interview on the Pat McAfee show. He started well with the allergic thing, fair enough, and with the minimal, minute risk of blood clots from the other vaccine I get why he wouldn’t have wanted it. But to then go on about Joe Rogan helping out, taking a drug which hasn’t been proven against Covid and using Homeopathy… yeah, it didn’t end well. He misses this week and possibly next.
For the record I don’t think anyone should be forced into getting the vaccine, but you then face the consequences of your employers rules if things don’t go well and that’s where they are now.
So Jordan Love gets his first start for the Packers. 20:17 TD:INTs in his final year of college isn’t excatly convincing and around 15 yards rushing per game, isn’t exactly convincing, he looked all right in the odd preseason action he got for the Packers though and has been on the team for a couple of seasons so you’d hope he looks all right.
They do welcome back Davante Adams after a covid absence and MVS from injury so that’ll help. As with McCoy above it might be a lot of shorter passes to Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon from the backfield, they both looked good in the win against the Cardinals last game.
The Chiefs are probably still over-rated, they’ve struggled this year and Mahomes is struggling, he’s had at least one INT in every game this year except the opener, it’s been a lot of tipped passes and random shit like that, but passes aren’t quite on target so far this year. He’s still 3rd in yards thrown this year.
Teams are playing 2 deep safeties and making them dink and dunk, double covering Kelce who is having probably the worst sesaon of his career so far, Hill is still putting up numbers but causing quite a lot of those INTs. It doesn’t help that they don’t really have a run-game. Darrel Williams is fine, but can’t carry the team, while Frank Gore’s grandson played last week and found the endzone.
Defensively it’s fairly well publicised that they’ve been terrible, so this will be an interesting matchup of rookie QB vs. awful defense.
The line came down from 55 on the Rodgers news, and went from around pickem to 7.5 It’s stayed around that line all week. Nothing for me on the spread, and I’m on the under on the total.
Tennessee Titans +7 @ Los Angeles Rams: 52.5
The Titans have their first game post-Henry after he went down last week, with the workload it is impressive he’s gone this long without a major injury but he has been a machine so it still came as a bit of a shock that he was injured. They have brought in Adrian Peterson off the street and he’s immediately into the starting roster to face the Rams. It’s probably a mix of him and Jeremy McNichols in the backfield.
They have said they’ll still try and run the ball as they use play-action off of that, so it makes sense they would. Ryan Tannehill will hope that Julio Jones steps up and stays healthy and AJ Brown does well agaisnt Jalen Ramsey, he’s huge so might have some success. Outside of the big names it drops off very quickly though. Firkser hasn’t really stepped into Jonnu Smith’s shoes yet.
The Rams brought in Von Miller in a trade this week, one of the few moves at the deadline to get even better alongside Donald and Floyd who’ve been great this year anyway. Good luck blocking all of them each game.
Matthew Stafford has been the best QB in the league this year and Cooper Kupp is setting records with his play, could be on for 2,000 yards on the season, 924 and 10 TDs so far this season. He’s usually open and always seems to make the first man miss when he gets the ball. Robert Woods can put up 150 if needed and Tyler Higbee has added a little too, while Van Jefferson is firmly the WR3 for them now.
The worry for the Rams is they’re not prepped after having walkovers the last few weeks but I can’t see McVay overlooking this game and their push for the 1 seed should continue.
Rams cover, over on the total. Very good teaser leg here.
Bets for the weekend.
A few points down last week as all 3 props lost for the first time in a while. Gainwell 3 yards under his line as the 3rd choice RB was particularly annoying.
- Cowboys, Chiefs and Rams – 7 point teaser – 13/10
I seem to be on tight ends this week, all at slightly larger prices (Uzomah and even Ross Dwelley at 16s were tempting)
- Tyler Conklin – 9/2 (PP)
- Albert Okwuegbunam – 9/2 (365/PP)
- Cooper Kupp – 4/5 (365)
- Mike Gesicki o4.5 receptions – 4/5 (365/PP)
- Jarvis Landry o58.5 rec. yards – 5/6 (PP) – Was 48.5 on opening, but I still like it here, it’s 60.5 on 365
- Tyler Conklin o3.5 recs – 6/5 (365)
- Joe Burrow o0.5 interceptions – 1/1 (PP)
Good luck if you’re following this week.
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