Well, it’s safe to say that last week didn’t go to plan, what a cluster-fuck of a fortnight it’s been for results in the NFL, and with the Ravens losing to the Dolphins on Thursday night it looks like things aren’t changing this week so far. A lot of teasers probably down the pan already before the week 10 has even properly begun.
Unsurprisingly last week left me down on the week, but it could have been worse although annoyingly one of my two winners on the week with Joe Burrow throwing an interception which he did early on for a 99 yards pick 6 which put the Bengals behind the 8-ball immediately and they never got back into it. At least I won some cash from their ineptitude.
Anyway, onwards and upwards to this week. I’ve done the Full10yards betting pod as always as well as the @EarlyValueNFL prop-cast with Ross. He’s had some amazing guests on the sides pods he puts out on Tuesday, well worth a listen to both of them each week.
Right. Week 10. Let’s see how crazy this week is.
Atlanta Falcons +8.5 @ Dallas Cowboys: 54
Remarkably the Falcons are currently the 7th seed in the NFC sitting at 4-4 afer beating divisional rivals the Saints last weekend. After a shakey start with a new offensive co-ordinator Matt Ryan has been great in recent weeks, and that’s despite playing for 3 of the 5 without Calvin Ridley who was expected to be the teams WR1
It’s thanks mainly to Cordarelle Patterson and Kyle Pitts who have stepped up, C Patt especially who finished last week with 126 receiving yards. Someone has finally figured out how to use him and it’s beautiful.
Russell Gage caught 7 of his 8 targets last week, the week before was Tajae Sharpe. I think it’ll be Gage again, and his line of 4.5 receptions seems decent, but there’s a chance they’ll move on to someone else for this one, who knows. Mike Davis stinks.
The Cowboys were dogshit last week allowing the Denver Broncos to get out to a 30 point lead before scoring a couple of TDs in garbage time both very unhelpfully to Malik Turner, it’s not like I needed Zeke for the Skybet treble or anything. Pricks. And even more stupidly they went for 2 pts on both even rushing Dak Prescott in for one of them. Idiots.
It’s fine for them to lose a couple of games as the NFC East is trash, but I’d be shocked if they don’t put up 24+ this week… their team total is bloody 33.5 though. I couldn’t take that.
Anyway, Michael Gallup returns this week for his first action since 7 targets in the opening game of the season. That gives them their big three back with Lamb and Cooper seemingly fine to go this week. Blake Jarwin is on IR, so more of Dalton Schultz I’d imagine.
Zeke and Pollard will likely maintain their roles at RB, with Zeke getting a lot of the early and goal-line work, Pollard 30% or so as it’s averaged out to over the season.
I can’t judge the Falcons this year. I don’t think they’re good, but they’ve been a lot better in recent weeks. I think the Cowboys are good, but they were poop last week. So… nothing on the spread, I’d have to lean Falcons though, and it’s the highest total so I’d go under if I had to.
Buffalo Bills -13.5 @ New York Jets: 47.5
Far too much written on that first game. The Bills were terrible vs. the Jags last week as Josh Allen took over against Josh Allen. They’ll be hoping Josh Allen bounces back this week.
I said in my pre-season previews I expected the Bills to fall back a little, I’m not sure if they have or not, they beat the Chiefs, which looked like a key win, but the rest of their schedule has been hideously easy so far so it’s tough to really judge them and this week doesn’t exactly help that either. They need to get the run game going but with Zack Moss just clearing concussion protocol and Devin Singletary distinctly average it might not happen.
Stefon Diggs is good but not getting much. Sanders and Beasles still fine. Was Dawson Knox the key to this team? Maybe they need him back.
The Jets pass defense is actually quite good so they may do a decent job of slowing down the Bills and they have MightyWhite starting this week. He’s intriguing after destroying the Bengals and looking good on the one drive he completed against the Colts, so I think it’s safe to suggest he’s still unknown.
Michael Carter has been the one bright spark for the team this year and he benefits from White starting in the passing game with 9 and 8 receptions in the games White has played the majority of, with 67 and 95 yards. Even last week without White for most of it he finished with 37 yards in the passing game. He and Elijah Moore showed up with Josh Johnson under center.
I mean, the Bills win? Surely? After last week, not a chance I’m touching this, it’d be Jets and over if I had to.
Cleveland Browns +2.5 @ New England Patriots: 45
Chubb and Felton are both officially out so it’s D’Ernest Johnson week again, and probably a little does of DnD nerd Jonny Stanton for the Browns. That’s fine with me, the offensive line and the run-scheme allows people to succeed as Johnson did on that Thursday night against the Broncos. They’ll be fine in the run game.
Whether they can do anything in the passing game is a different thing, the Patriots have a decent passing defense that gets stronger as the season goes on as it seems to do every year. I’m still not convinced by the passing attack although jettison-ing Odell is probably a good thing for Baker and the team as a whole.
They welcomed back people on defense and that was the key to their win against the Bengals, they will get home to Mac Jones this week against an average Pats offensive line.
Mac Jones has been perfectly fine at QB for the Pats this year, and that’s all they have needed really. It’s not great, but it works. They rely largely on the run game which will be without Damien Harris this week with him missing the game through concussion. Rookie Rhamondre Stevenson will probably get a heavy work-load if he’s fine to go and he’s looked good in the little work he’s had this year. If he doesn’t go (he’s game-time) then Brandon Bolden somehow becomes relevant.
A random punt on this one, Jonnu Smith anytime. I read reports they were going to give him some rush attempts and he’s scored rushing TDs in the past for the Titans, at 7/1 on William Hill I’ll spread a little cash on him.
I am surprised to see the Browns as nearly a field goal underdog. I like them and under
Detroit Lions +6.5 @ Pittsburgh Steelers: 41.5
I think the Lions might win.
I definitely think they’ll cover the spread.
The Steelers tend to play down to their opposition so despite them winning 5 in a row I just don’t trust them. They’ll be without Chase Claypool this week and a few weeks going forward, so James Washington probably gets more of the ball, but it’s mostly Diontae Johnson and Najee Harris moving the team.
And this is why I do my previews on Sunday mornings. Big Ben has been ruled out as he’s on the covid list, he should take care, it’s meant to more dangerous for obese, unhealthy, older folks. So it’s the mighty Mason Rudolph starting for them. It’s been deemed only a 1 point downgrade which probably says a lot about where Ben is in his career. That 1 is through 7 though, so a 15% change in chance of covering which sounds a little more significant.
Claypool is still out, but I’d avoid anything Diontae related now. James Washington probably gets a slight bump as he’s done OK with Rudolph under center. For some reason Benny Snell piques my interest at 14/1 as well. Weird.
The Lions are coming off their bye week so won’t be any healthier, Jamaal Williams misses out again though, so D’Andre Swift will get a lot of the ball, he’s not been good running but receiving has excelled this year.
If it rains take the Steelers to cover, if not, take the Lions. The total only dropped 1 point on the Big Ben news as well. Under the look.
Jacksonville Jaguars +10 @ Indianapolis Colts: 47.5
The Jags had their game of the season last week, Josh Allen was amazing by making Josh Allen look terrible. It looks like James Robinson is questionable, I think he’ll play this week which will help the offense which has gone into it’s shell over the past fortnight.
They’ll probably be trailing so the passing game should look a little better.
I think the Colts run all over the Jags though, Jonathan Taylor has been great in recent weeks and had his best game of the year with all 5 OL starters playing for the first time of the year. I expect more of the same with Taylor leading the line.
Wentz has looked better too and seems to have a good partnership with Michael Pittman who’s scored 4 in his last 3 games now. I like him to continue that.
Colts cover, sneaky over.
New Orleans Saints +3 @ Tennessee Titans: 43.5
The Saints without Kamara, the Titans with Henry and Julio. Sheesh.
I think it’ll be Trevor Siemian starting again, but without Kamara it’s a tough out for the Saints. It will be Mark Ingram getting most of the ball in the backfield with probably a bit of Dwayne Washington and/or Ty Montgomery as the pass-catching back for the week. Siemian at least spreads the ball around, Adam Trautman dropped a lot of passes last week, Deonte Harris led the team in targets last week but Kenny Stills somehow scored for them.
The Titans won their first game without Henry at the Rams on Monday largely on the back of a defensive performance. Adrian Peterson scored on debut, but Dont’a Foreman had more yardage on the ground. Julio has gone on IR for at least 3 weeks, so it’ll be AJ Brown pretty much by himself again. Geoff Swaim and Ikhene-Westbrook will likely get more targets now.
No idea on the spread, have to lean Saints still I suppose and the under is strongly in play.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -9.5 @ Washington Football Team: 50
Both teams coming off their bye week with the Bucs for some reason 2 points bigger faves than they were before the bye. They will be without Antonio Brown and maybe Gronk, possibly Chris Godwin as well although it looks like he’ll be playing here. Mike Evans is probably the bet though, he’s scored 8 times this season despite seemingly being quite quiet.
The passing game is where you attack both these teams, one has the best QB ever, the other has Taylor Heinicke, Brady is the favourite for MVP at this point in the season and is capable of running the table especially with this team.
Washington aren’t good. They probably won’t be able to run the ball much and the passing game isn’t exactly studly either, I think they’ll struggle to run the ball.
This line isn’t moving, it restricts teasers and that seems to be what they’re aiming for. Under on total.
Carolina Panthers +8.5 @ Arizona Cardinals: 43
PJ Walker starts for the Panthers with Sam Darnold out for 4-6 weeks. He was terrible in the little action he’s seen so far so they brought in Cam Newton for next week on onwards. 3 from 14 attempts isn’t good enough for your QB. It might mean a little more for Robby Anderson who’s barely had a touch, it surely means more for McCaffrey and DJ Moore.
Defense is the strength of the Panthers and they’ll need it to be good to keep close to the Cards.
Kyler Murray maybe returns for the Cards, but they looked good with Colt McCoy under center last week. They moved the ball easily against the 49ers. Chase Edmonds misses out with injury so I’d assume it will be 75% him, 25% Eno Benjamin at RB.
They have a ton of players on the injury report, I would assume Hopkins misses out, I think AJ Green is available after missing last week due to covid. So they’ll go the same as last week but with him as well, and that was more than enough last week. James Conner looked great, Zach Ertz got involved and Kirk and Moore are capable of sparking.
Not touching the spread, would lean Cards and the nothing on the total, a strong chance the Panthers score 10 pts max. Spread dropped 2 pts on Kyler probably missing.
Minnesota Vikings +3.5 @ Los Angeles Chargers: 53
Every man and their dog is on the over in this one and it makes sense, both dodgy defensively with the Chargers the worst run defense in the league, the Vikings the 6th worst. With two very good running backs and QBs who can rack up points when required, it’s easy to see why.
Both teams are in the running for the playoffs in their conferences but the Vikings need the win to keep up their chances. They are a good 1st quarter team but frustrating that they go ahead then play conservatively. Realistically we need the Chargers to get a few scores ahead and force the Vikings to keep throwing the ball.
Dalvin Cook is one of the best in the league and should have a big game against this run D despite the allegations floating around possibly distracting him this week. Justin Jefferson needs more of the ball while Adam Thielen is still good and Tyler Conklin is increasingly involved, another good matchup for him here.
Austin Ekeler should be on for a good game as well on the ground and through the air, it should be high-scoring and he’s a true 3 down back so he should get involved a lot as will Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, outside of the big 3 there’s a lot of average but Herbert makes it work in general.
These teams love 1-score games, the Vikings with 7/8 and VChargers 6/8 this season. The Vikes played an overtime loss against the Ravens on Sunday where they were run over and their defense was on the field for 100-odd snaps.
I’d lean the Chargers and over. Should be a close one though.
Philadelphia Eagles +2 @ Denver Broncos: 45
And yet another two teams who could be anytthing on a given weekend. The Eagles lost a close one to the Chargers while the Broncos could have shut out the Cowboys if they wanted after getting out to a 30 point lead.
The Eagles have been running it a lot more in recent weeks on the back of their offensive line and you’d imagine that would be the case here as well with Jordan Howard and Boston Scott proving a fairly decent combo in the backfield, as well as Hurts moving well at QB. Throwing the ball isn’t quite as effective but Devonta Smith had over 100 last week, in fact he had 116 of hurts 162 yards, so not much else there. Dallas Goedert and he will be the main men.
Denver gave Teddy time and he picked apart the Cowboys but it was their defense forcing 4 and outs that was the key for them last week. They are lower half in rush defense so they’ll have to step up a little should the Eagles carry on their heavy run-game plan as they should.
Javonte Williams topped 100 yards but didn’t find the endzone again, he and Gordon have proven a very good partnership but Gordon tends to get the goal-line carries. They should have Noah Fant back after a covid trip and Jerry Jeudy being out there definitely helps the offense, he led the team in targets last week with Tim Patrick putting up the big yards and finding the endzone.
I’ve no idea on this one. I’ve actually been quite high on the Eagles, but if the Broncos click they’re actually quite good. I’d lean Broncos but I’m going nowhere near this one.
Seattle Seahawks +3 @ Green Bay Packers: 49.5
This could have easily been Geno Smith vs. Jordan Love, but it looks like the league have their wish and it’s Wilson v Rodgers.
Wilson returns from his finger injury, you have to think he’ll go out there and be fine, but they won’t be with Chris Carson who they were hoping would return this week, so it’s another Alex Collins and co. week at running back. Wilson returning probably means good things for DK and Lockett although they dismantled the Jags a couple of weeks back before their bye week.
Not much else to say on their offense. It’s two or three guys and that’s about it.
The Packers were shite last week with Love so it’s safe to say despite him costing them the win Rodgers will be happily returned to the lineup. It goes without saying that it’s good for all on the offense after only scoring 7 last week. Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon at RB, Davantae Adams and the rest at WR. It’s actually the strongest theyve been at WR for a while with Lazard and MVS there, expect MVS to see some deep shots with a proper QB back.
Got to take the Packers at home they’re they’re back to relatively full strength. Shout out to the UK Packers who are at the game tonight, living the dream!
Kansas City Chiefs -3 @ Las Vegas Raiders: 51.5
If you can figure these two out you’re better than me. The Chiefs will SURELY get going eventually while the Raiders constantly perplex me.
So we’ll go numbers. the Chiefs were 8 point faves in Vegas last year, and won by 4, they were 10.5 faves at home and lost outright. The rosters weren’t a million miles away although from where we are now although a few obvious changes. So the Raiders tend to play the Chiefs quite well.
Mahomes is worrying about pressure a lot and the Raiders have shown they can generate that up front with Crosby leading the charge. The key to the game will be that pressure. It seems they desperately needs CEH back in the lineup as their offensive nunmbers with him are far better than without.
So while he didn’t seem to be doing much it seems the offense just moved more smoothly with him in the side. Well, he’s not back this week so it might be tough sledding again for them. I would suggest that teams don’t respect the run so can play the 2 deep safeties that they have been and stymie Kelce and Hill.
The Raiders could have won in NY but a late INT. put the kybosh on that, I’ve said all year I can’t predict them and that remains true. They got Waller much more involved which has to be a good thing with 11 targets last week, and signed Desean Jackson this week to replace the deep threat of Henry Ruggs which should help open things up for Renfrow and co underneath. Renfrow is proving one of the better slots in the league and is a redzone threat for them.
Josh Jacobs looks back to healthy o the ground and Kenyan Drake is mixing in well as well.
You’d have to say the Raiders ahve played better of the two so far this year and this is a huge game for the division with all teams on 5 wins at the moment. The Chiefs record ATS is terrible in the last 20, 3-16-1. That’s gotta turn around at some point, right?!
A quite obvious avoid on betting but should be a good game for the neutral. Despite everything I still can’t say not to the Chiefs so i’d lean that way.
Weekend Bets.
I was going to say best bets, but after last week I’ll just say bets.
I’m not confident enough on any spread this week. A few leans of course, but nothing I want to risk my hard-earned on. #OnePride
TD Scorers (2 pt stake unless stated)
- James Conner – 5/6 (365/Skybet)
- Hunter Henry – 16/5 (PP)
- Jonnu Smith – 7/1 (Hills) – 1 pt
- Jordan Howard – 5/2 (Hills)
- Micheal Pittman – 11/10 (365/Skybet)
Player props
- Austin Ekeler o98.5 rush and rec. yards – 5/6 (PP)
I’ll stick to that, I’ve probably gone a bit heavy on TD scorers and props have been problematic this week with so much injury news flying around.
Good Luck if you follow along, and with it being Remembrance Sunday, if you do win anything, please consider donating to the British Legion or a similar veteran supporting charity where you are in the world.
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