Baltimore Ravens -5 @ Chicago Bears: 44
The Ravens will be looking to bounce back on a mini-bye after getting smacked by the Dolphins 10 days ago. Lamar Jackson has been a little bit poorly all week but will be playing, while Marquise Brown will miss out this week. That probably means Mark Andrews is the main target with rookie Rashod Bateman top of the WR charts, although Sammy Watkins might figure how to play football again and take that role, Devin Duvernay steps up the depth chart too.
They released Lev Bell this week, so Devonta Freeman and it looks like Latavius Murray will be the RBs for them this week. Probably a low spot on the roster for Ty’son Williams.
Is Justin Fields figuring shit out? He’s looked all right in recent weeks despite losing 4 games in a row. They seem to be using his mobility a lot more which is something most people think should have happened from the off. What better way to learn than watching the best in the game at the moment.
Montgomery returned and took all the carries although Mooney got the sole rushing TD as well as one through the air and with Allen Robinson probably out he will have to step up as the WR1. Er… Damiere Byrd and Marquise Goodwin stepping up behind him? Christ knows. Cole Kmet should have a big game, he was already a favoured target and with A Rob out, probably even more so.
Sunday morning update has Lamar as questionable. So wait until 1.5 hours (when inactives are annoucned) before the game if you want to bet on this one.
Ravens win and cover.
Detroit Lions +12 @ Cleveland Browns: 42.5
Not much to say on the Lions. They’re starting the backup QB, Tim Boyle, fresh from injury, I’m sure Miles Garrett will welcome him nicely.
D’Andre Swift and TJ Hockenson the only bright spots, could be another high carry game for Swift.
The Browns got twatted by the Pats last week but they welcome back Nick Chubb this week and he should score a couple. Baker Mayfield said this week he’s the most beaten up he’s been as a QB. That’s not great for Jarvis Landry and the rest of the passing game. Lean under.
So… Browns run. A lot. Like 70%. And it works. Browns win, nothing on spread, lean under.
Green Bay Packers -1 @ Minnesota Vikings: 47.5
The start of the good games for the weekend. The NFC North is probably done, but a win for the Vikings here might at least make things a little more interesting. I’ve said for years he’s a dick, but Aaron Rodgers has outdone himself in recent weeks. He’s back and feeling fine though and that’s all that matters for the Packers. Davantae Adams, should have a good game, outside of him Lazard is doubtful, so probably misses out, so MVS gets a bump, and I guess everyone else, but christ. It’s actually a really shit group.
Aaron Jones is out, so the focus will be on AJ Dillon who should be capable of taking advantage of his chance. Dude is a beast.
The Vikings are frustrating, they won last week, might this week, but it will be very close. Cousins has 18 TDs. 3 INTs on the season, so them coming in at 4-5 seems crazy. But that’s what they do. Dalvin Cook has had huge games against the Packers, 264 combined yards and 6 TDs last year in their divisional games.
Houston Texans +10 @ Tennessee Titans: 45
The wya this year has gone would you be shocked if the Texans won?
Can’t take the Titans on the spread, nothing on the total.
Indianapolis Colts +7 @ Buffalo Bills: 49.5
Slightly more interesting than the game above, I think the Colts have a chance in this one. Jonathan Taylor is one of the best in the league at RB and with their offensive line back to full strength they’ve been far better in recent weeks. I’m not buying that “the jags nearly beat them last week” they rushed out to a huge lead then sat back knowing this game was coming up.
They’re actually very healthy, Darius Leonard listed as questionable the only guy who didn’t train fully on Friday. That means Wentz will have Hilton, Pittman and the rest to get the ball to. He’s had a weird season but despite some terrible High school level improvisations has only thrown 3 INTs so far. This is a proper test for them after winning the games they were meant to win over the last month.
The Bills are who I thought they were, good but not excellent, they have fallen back to the pack a little, but the ease of their schedule means they’re still winning most weeks. Josh Allen has been top 10 without impressing, or having to impress. Stefon Diggs, Manny Sanders and Cole Beasley have good match ups against this Colts defense so should be heavily involved.
They haven’t been good at running the ball, but that shouldn’t matter here, it should be a pass heavy gamescript and that plays to their strength. Which is good it means I don’t need to pick a performer from Moss, Singletary or Matt Breida who popped up with 2 TDs last week in a rout over the Jets. He actually looked quite good. 17/2 for Breida anytime this week. Interesting.
This is a tough one. I think the Colts cover, but equally if the Bills are clicking they could win going away. I’d lean over the total though.
Miami Dolphins -3.5 @ New York Jets: 44.5
https://www.bookmakersreview.com/nfl/picks/dolphins-jets-free-nfl-picks-week-11/371721/
I have so little respect for the Dolphins, but just over a field goal faves in NY against Joe Flacco seems a little derogitary.
Myles Gaskin should have a good game against a Jets team giving up 62.5% of their TDs to running backs. He’s not good though and running behind the worst OL in the league so I’m not exactly high on that.
I think the Dolphins win and cover. Under on total.
New Orleans Saints +2.5 @ Philadelphia Eagles: 42.5
The Saints are without Alvin Kamara again. They didn’t look like winning even without the awful “roughing the passer” call against them which allowed the Titans to score last week. It means Mark Ingram getting a lot of play again after becoming the all-time Saints rushing leader last week with 47 yards and a score. They did activate Tony Jones this week and it looked like he had some pop, so one to look out for.
Deonte Harris seems the favoured target for Trevor Siemian but Trequan Smith out-targeted him last week. Adam Trautman isn’t liked by Saints fans as he can’t catch balls, he was targeted a lot last week though including end-zone looks, so I think he’s a decent price at 6/1 on vBet, even 9/2 on proper sites is fine. The Saints are very good at stopping the run.
The run game has been the key to the Eagles recent wins, they welcome back Miles Sanders from IR today. Will they put him in as RB1 or will they stick with Jordan Howard and Boston Scott? I think Sanders is the best of the lot but they didn’t give him much chance to show that when he was active early in the year.
Jalen Hurts had a big game against the Saints last year early in his career, rushing for over 100 yards against them. I don’t think it’ll be that high this week but against a good run D his scrambling could push to the fore.
Devonta Smith notched up a couple more scores last weekend scoring for the second game in a row as he and Hurts settle into the season. It’s a low-passing offense but when they do throw it’s usually towards him or Dallas Goedert who they signed to the second highest TE contract in the league this week.
I can’t call this one. I think the Eagles are the better team at the current rosters, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Saints win. Their strength matches the Eagles plan to run.
San Francisco 49ers -6.5 @ Jacksonville Jaguars: 45.5
https://www.bookmakersreview.com/nfl/picks/49ers-jaguars-nfl-week-11-picks-predictions/372038/
Deebo Samuel is awesome.
Eli Mitchell probably out so should be a big Jeff Wilson game.
49ers win and cover. Jags score under 14 points.
Washington Football Team +3.5 @ Carolina Panthers: 42.5
After a shock win against the Bucs last week I have no idea how to judge the WFT. Taylor Heinicke had a great game but I don’t think he’ll be able to do it again. Terry McLaurin is great, made it back into the game last week after a knock and will be fine to go this week, they are missing Ricky Seals-Jones at TE though so they’re down to rookie John Bates (13/2 Unibet) and they do like targeting the big men in the redzone.
Antonio Gibson gets an easier test than against the Bucs defense and the Panthers are far better against the pass than rush, so it could be a game for him to bump up his averages a little.
Cam Newton is going to start. He did two things last week and they both went well, ran in from a few yards out, then used the fear of him repeating that to throw a TD. Can he do anything between the 20s though? He was terrible for the Pats last year, although he did seem to have a good off-season. It’s a watching brief for me.
Him being there should open things up at the goal-line though and Christian McCaffrey should benefit. He casually put up 150 yards last week and very nearly scored. He’ll be heavily involved as always. Cam returning should be good news for Robby Anderson who’s struggled with Darnold this year, and DJ Moore may bounce back after a few down games.
If anyone knows Cam though it’s Ron Rivera, will he be able to stop this Cam?
I’ve nothing on this one. Would have to lean under despite it being a low total though.
Cincinnati Bengals -1.5 @ Las Vegas Raiders: 50.5
I’m not leaning under on this one. First thing I looked at here was Joe Burrow to throw o1.5 TDs, it’s 10/17 on 365. Over 1/2 is fine with me. Sure they had a dud game agianst the Browns but I think they bounce back after the bye week.
The passing game should have a good day against this Raiders defense so Tee Higgins, Chase and Boyd should put up numbers. Higgins is usually the most targetd, Chase gets the value targets and I’m not sure what’s going on with Boyd and his lack of action so far. CJ Uzomah has a good match up at TE, he’s boom or bust, when he’s a top 10 TE this year. He’s #1.
Joe Mixon will be back and refreshed, the Raiders have a good pass rush, but aren’t great vs. the run and Mixon has good numbers in his career against this opponent. They will try and establish him before anything else.
The Raiders have been slow after the Ruggs’ incident. They are still going deep but the loss of a true game-breaking talent has hurt them, they’ll be hoping Desean Jackson remembers what he’s doing when he catches a deep shot tonight. Bryan Edwards has been fine, Hunter Renfrow is a machine, 7 receptions in each of their last 3 games, line is 5.5 for him. Darren Waller should get a lot of work in the middle of the field with the Bengals losing ADG who’d been quite good this year.
Josh Jacobs and Kenyan Drake are a frustrating combo, they grind things out without looking particuarly impressive, don’t be surprised when Jacobs gets in from inside the 5 though.
I’m usually an anti-homer. I think the Bengals win here though, and over on the total, both offenses are the strengths.
Arizona Cardinals +2.5 @ Seattle Seahawks: 46.5
It looks like the Cardinals will be without Kyler Murray again as they look towards the playoffs and rest him through their bye week next week. That means Colt McCoy starting again. It didn’t go well last week for him. Deandre Hopkins also gets to rest for a couple more weeks.
So they’ll be looking to be creative on offense to get the likes of Rondale Moore the ball in their hands. Christian Kirk and AJ Green round out a still half-decent offense alongside Zach Ertz at tight end.
What we do know for sure is it will be James Conner getting the 10-zone carries as he looks to add to his 11 rushing TDs this year. I’m still not convinced he’s that good, but he’s found his fit here and the Seahawks can be run on.
The Seahawks shit the bed with Wilson returning from injury last week, he’ll be happy to be back home and have another week under his belt. They are probably out of the playoff race, but another loss here cements that position so they’ll have to pull out all the stops.
Chris Carson is done for the year so Alex Collins gets the start, he practised fully after a worry early in the week. DK Metcalf is clearly not best pleased at the moment while Lockett is feast or well not famine… fast I guess. He’s can blow up or not do much. The tight ends will probably get a lot of work in the shorter game with Wilson not fully healthy.
With it being (probably) Colt McCoy I have to lean Seahawks but it’s with no confidence. Under on the total. The line moved from -1.5 to +2.5 on the McCoy news but the total only dropped 0.5
Dallas Cowboys +2.5 @ Kansas City Chiefs: 55.5
I’m a bit pissed the Bengals are in the late games this week as I wanted to fully concentrate on this one. Should be a cracker.
The Cowboys are without Amari Cooper for this and thanksgiving so that nudges everyone up the depth chart at WR, Lamb the 1, Gallup 2 and Cedric Wilson moving up to third choice there. Lamb has been the better player through the year despite playing fewer snaps, seems to get the work when he’s out there and he has the trust of Dak. Gallup returned from injury last week and was heavily involved, only 3 for 42 on the stat-sheet but had a few called back including a TD.
Zeke and Pollard have been a good tandem, Zeke the obvious 1 still, will be looking to carry on his scoring after a double last week and it’s a good matchup for him despite the recent improvement from the Chiefs defense. I should probably mention Dak. He’s rather good, could be on for CBPOY and MVP this year, whether he is allowed to win both, we might find out this season.
Are the Chiefs back? I’m not trusting them despite a comprehensive win over the Raiders last week. I think the Cowboys are at a similar level to that defense to be honest, they’ve just had good turnover luck, so I do think they can put up points here if they’re clicking. Mahomes threw 5 TDs and over 400 last week, they might have Clyde Edwards-Helaire back tonight but pass-heavy will be the key still.
Kelce looked back and feeling it after that win, he’s not had a show-off season but he still quietly been very good. We just expect so much of him. Hill had another 2 TD game on Sunday night to take him to 8 on the season and they managed to get the bit-part guys involved, the likes of Pringle, Hardman and Robinson will be essential in getting the win tonight.
Such a tough spread to call. If one team is having a bad game it could be a 20 point win on either side. You have to say the Cowboys are the better team this year, but if the Chiefs are back then they will win.
If I was forced to bet I’d bump the Cowboys up to 3 and we’re all praying for an over aren’t we.
Pittsburgh Steelers +5.5 @ Los Angeles Chargers: 47.5
Big Ben returns for the Steelers after taking a private jet to the game and they’ll have Chase Claypool back as well after injury. I joked about Rudolph not being much of a downgrade but Ben must be worth more than the 1.5 they moved the line last week. Rudolph was terrible.
Diontae Johnson should go back to double-digit targets with Ben back, but this should be a Najee Harris 25+ carry game against a Chargers team who can’t stop the run. 5/6 for him scoring seems generous given how RBs do in this matchup.
I can’t get the Chargers, they don’t seem to be using their strengths, namely Justin Herberts arm and it’s hurting them. I think they know the defense isn’t great so are trying to extend drives to keep them off the field but it’s not working.
Is the game-script why Mike Williams has disappeared? Or are they throwing shorter because he’s massively out of form? I don’t know. Keenan Allen is reliable as ever though and their bevvy of tight ends were all involved last week.
TJ Watt is ruled out. That’s huge.
I don’t know how the Steelers have been grinding out results, they’re really not very good this year, without TJ Watt though I’ve got to take the Chargers. Under on the total.
Best bets;
Spread
Some really tough lines this week and games I could see going either way. So we’re going teaser.
- Cowboys up to 8.5 and 49ers down to 0.5 – 5/6 (2 points)
You can do alt. spreads if your book doesn’t offer teasers but the odds will be variable.
TD scorer (2 pts unless stated)
After a rough week do I settle for short priced or go more ambitious? ARGH.
- Nick Chubb – 4/6 (Paddypower) – 4 point stake
- Myles Gaskin – 6/4 (365)
- Adam Trautman – 9/2 (365/PP) – 6/1 on vBet if you happen to have an account there
- Joe Mixon – 11/10 (365)
- James Conner – 11/10 (Unibet) – I can’t say no to plus money on him.
- Michael Gallup – 9/4 (Betfred)
Player props
I’ve gone a little heavy on TDs. So not many props.
- Deebo Samuel longest recpetion o24.5 yards – 5/6 (365/Hills)
- Joe Burrow o1.5 passing TDs – 10/17 (365)
Good luck if you follow along.
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