Week 14; Sunday previews

The featured picture this week could only be one player. RIP Demaryius Thomas, aged just 33.

Atlanta Falcons +3 @ Carolina Panthers: 41

The Falcons did better than expected against the Bucs last week but they can’t protect the QB and they’re basically just C Patt. He’ll play this week and is arguably worth 14 points or so. He had a poor game against the Falcons earlier in the year but still finished with a TD in their 19-13 loss. Not a whole lot more to say about the Falcons really. Kyle Pitts is good.

A quick fall from grace for Joe Brady. One year you’re in line to take over an NFL team but end up as the OC on the Panthers, the next you’re back on the street as the HC sacrifices staff to try and save his own job. Apparently not running the ball 30 times with Chuba Hubbard was the issue. Cam Newton, that game he had was fun wasn’t it.

Trash game. Panthers D is probably the best unit on the field, but I’d lean Falcons still, and under.

Baltimore Ravens +3 @ Cleveland Browns: 42.5

These two played 2 weeks ago with Lamar Jackson throwing 4 INTs, they still won the game thanks to the Browns utter ineptness as they were held to just 36 yards from Chubb and Hunt.

The Ravens went for 2 to try and win against the Steelers last week, Harbuagh said that was becuase his secondary was so injured that he didn’t think they’d even be able to stop Big Ben. Sure having a week knowing that they’ve got reserves there is better than the situation they were in but they’re not in a good place at the moment. Lamar, Marquise Brown, Mark Andrew, Justin Tucker – The only names to look for really.

The Browns have been garbage for the whole (barring spanking my team) but a weeks rest should be good for Baker Mayfield at QB. If he’s anywhere near healthy they should be attacking that weakened secondary with Landry. They are injured too though with Austin Hooper the only starting TE available as Njoku and Bryant are both out. Andy Janovich TD anyone? Miller Forristall seems like the 2nd TE, 14/1 at Coral for him, although Rashard Higgins at 10s is interesting.

It will be a close game. I have a lot more trust in the Ravens than the Browns, sharps like the Brownies though.

Dallas Cowboys -5 @ Washington Football Team: 47.5

A top of the NFC East clash here. The Cowboys come in off 10 days rest after beating the Saints on TNF last week, Amari Cooper played that one but was limited, he should be back properly here. That gives them their 3 main passing weapons. The run game is a bit muddy though, Zeke has been splitting snaps with Pollard anyway, they have said they want to limit him, but Pollard tore his Plantar Fascia on his big run last week. That’s not a good thing. Corey Clement may be in line to take his role is he can’t go. (9/1 on Coral/Unibet for him, thanks Tim)

Washington are on a decent run after their 4th win in a row last week took them back to 0.500. Antonio Gibson was the man with 28 touches as JD McKissic missed with concussion, with JD McKissic looking like missing again, targeting his receptions could be a solid look after it landed last week for us. Looks like Seal-Jones will be back in at TE with Logan Thomas done for the year. The starting TE for them is on the field constantly so probably a good one to look for in props.

Sorry Wash. your time is up. Cowboys should have too much here.

Jacksonville Jaguars +9 @ Tennessee Titans: 43.5

Urban Meyer. What a prick. I have said repeatedly about the lack of critique for Lawrence, but we won’t really know whether he’s any good until Meyer is gone. You can see he’s not throwing the ball on time, or target, but still. It’s not all on him, just got to hope he’s not “Darnolded” – I mean, he’s thrown 6 TDs in their last 11 games. – Lawrence spoke out this week about James Robinson being taken out of the game for losing a fumble, said he’s their best back and should be on the field. I think he will be more. Everything else is shit here.

The Titans beat the tough teams then injury killed them. They welcome back Julio Jones off their bye week so at least have one pass catcher for Tanny to throw the ball to. That’ll help. The run game is now 3 players rather than all Henry. Last time out Hilliard and Foreman both went for 100 yards against the Pats. Jeremy McNichols should be back this week too and I think he joins in the committee.

First of my proper write-ups at https://bookies.com/nfl/picks/jacksonville-jaguars-at-tennessee-titans-picks-betting-predictions for some stats.

The Jags are dogshit, haven’t topped 23 pts all year. The Titans have been struggling themselves, but 20-10 or something seems reasonable.

Las Vegas Raiders +10 @ Kansas City Chiefs: 47.5

It’s been a month since these two met, the Chiefs having their one decent offensive output of their last 5 games. The defense has seriously stepped up though, allowing a max of 17 pts in that time. The Raiders have had a similar month with one decent offensive performance since Ruggs was removed from society.

I don’t have much to say on the Raiders really, I’ve never been able to call them and that won’t start here. Renfrow is the most interesting for them, Josh Jacobs got more receptions with Drake leaving the game last week, might be a good angle. – Darren Waller misses out again, so they’ve Moreau less only for Foster at TE…Moreau less… more or less… yeah, that was really wedged in there.

The Chiefs… bleh. Teams have figured out how to stop them but the Raiders didn’t do that against them and got burned. Kelce and Hill combined for under 50 yards last week against a Denver team who drew up the blueprint to stop them, the Raiders allowed 200+ and 2 TDs against them. Darrel Williams o19.5 rec. yards could be a good look.

Chiefs win and cover. Have to go under on the total still.

New Orleans Saints -5.5 @ New York Jets: 41.5

Poop. Poop. Poop. At least Alvin Kamara is back although his splits with Taysom at QB and anyone else are stark. The fact they have practically no-one else to throw the ball to should help him and the Jets are terrible vs. opposing RBs, so both Kamara and Hill should have good games. Not even worth mentioning the passing game really.

Fortunately for the Saints the Jets are awflu and lost Elijah Moore for pretty much the rest of the year this week too. The connection between him and Wilson had looked like it was actually there last week and it’s the only player you want to pay attention to on the Jets front. Ty Johnson didn’t actually do much last week but he’s the only guy left in the RB room now.

Saints win and cover. 7-0 to them.

Seattle Seahawks -8.5 @ Houston Texans: 41

Another steaming pile of shit here. The Seahawks aren’t a good team, sure they beat the 49ers, but they always do. It doesn’t mean “they’re back” they signed old man Adrian Peterson to “win now” fair enough they won. But as happens with old people (I can attest to this) he hurt his back and misses this week, probably tying his shoelaces or something. On the plus side it should mean more work for my boy Rashaad Penny before he inevitably gets injured after 3 plays.

Lockett and DK Metcalf are fine, Gerald Everett… meh. In fairness they moved the ball around last week and D’wayne (apparently now Dee) Eskridge scored for the first time in his short career.

The Texans are starting Davis Mills.

Seahawks win a horrible game. 17-0

Detroit Lions +11 @ Denver Broncos: 42

The Lions fully deserved to get a win this season and did so against the Vikings last week thanks to the last play of the game, a pass that Jared Goff’s lady friend very much enjoyed. He’s had a mystery illness this week (alcohol) but should play. They are without Swift and Williams at RB though, so Igwebuike and Jermar Jefferson probably split carries I guess? TJ Hockenson is out too, so, yeah, there’s not much established talent here and probably the reason the line has drifted for them all week, from 7.5 at the start of the week. In fact half their squad are out with illness.

The Broncos have Melvin Gordon back. BOOOOOOOO. That means that the Javonte Williams breakout is done after a game. Surely they’ll make it more 66/33 between them now instead of 50/50 as it was before? 178 and a TD from 29 touches for Williams as the sole back last week. Juedy, Sutton, Fant, O, they’ve got a decent passing attack really.

Broncos win and frankly, going against the Lions keeping games close, they should cover.

predominantlyorange.com

New York Giants +9 @ Los Angeles Chargers: 43.5

Mike Glennon starts at QB. Kad Toney is out. Kenny Golladay apparently exists, he and Shepard should play. Saquon Barkley might have been over-drafted.

The Chargers are without Keenan Allen but Mike Williams plays after clearing Covid close-contact protocols. I’d imagine Guyton steps up to WR2 and Jared Cook gets more? Deep shots killed the Benglas last week, I think they go ground attack this week

The Chargers concede many, and have solidified their run D after a rough start to the season. Lean LAC, take the under.

San Francisco 49ers -2 @ Cincinnati Bengals: 48

This line opened +1.5, has gone all the way through to the 49ers and they’re still getting money now. It’s not a huge move through the 0 but still notable, although CLV has meant fuck all this year. These two met just 2 years ago and Shanahan abused Taylor in the coaching battle as the Niners won 41-17.

Things are very different this time around, the 49ers come in without their best RB this year as Elijah Mitchell misses out, so Jeff Wilson gets the start after a knee issue, Jamycal Hasty likely to split with him. A lot depends on Deebo Samuel who should go but won’t be 100% with a groin. Kittle should have a good game, he’s scored 5 in 5 games since coming back from injury.

Turnovers cost the Bengals last week who I thought actually played pretty well. Chase should have had a TD on that fuck up, Mixon rarely loses the ball, and the defense was decent despite being put in tough positions. Turnovers generally even out and they shouldn’t have those mistakes this week. DVOA ranks the run game well, stop that and force Jimmy is the way they win this. Mixon has scored in 9 games in a row now, Hendrickson has a sack in 8 games, the longest active streak in the league.

https://bookies.com/nfl/picks/san-francisco-49ers-at-cincinnati-bengals-picks-betting-predictions for a proper official write-up.

I’m a pessimistic fan in general but I think the Bengals should win here, 30-20 or similar. They will concede but the offense should have too much for a beaten up Niners secondary.

Buffalo Bills +3.5 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 54

Game of the day comes in the late slate, which is great for UK fans, it probably should have been flexed, but the league decided against it.

The Bills looked great against terrible teams early in the year but have been found wanting against any modicum of talent since that 4-1 start which had everyone banking them for the Superbowl. The Buccs have only got stronger as the season progresses.

So, I know I’m being a bit harsh on the Bills, they beat the Chiefs and that was the high point of their seaosn, since then, and in fairness before them, as with the other team in the AFC East, they’ve faced a load of trash. Fair enough they smashed shit teams, but I’m not buying them. I don’t know, I’ve actually seen very little of them this year so probably shouldn’t judge.

Diggs is still fine of course, Beasley gets the job done, Gabe Davis has stepped up a bit, the loss of Emmanuel Sanders from the attack seems stark though. While Dawson Knox had a couple of costly drops last week but has usually been reliable and a good redzone option.

It’s not really on the passing game though, their run game has not been good this year, Matt Breida’s pace has been the main method of moving the ball in recent weeks, before that it was a mix of Zack Moss and Devin Singletary, but neither have been particularly effective.

Defensively they bare meant to be good, but again, whenever they’ve faced a good team they’ve failed.

This Bucs team is a good team, still the favourites for the Superbowl and on a good run of form in recent weeks, Brady looks as good as ever (despite throwing into the arms of a defender for a pick 6 last week) and he’s got the weapons around him to punish any team they play against.

He loved Chris Godwin last week who finished with 15 receptions from 17 targets, the highest of his career, he moved the ball, Gronk finished off the moves with another 2 TDs if you can’t stop him then you won’t win the game, and Mike Evans nearly hit 100 yards last week too. They have options all round the field and with Tre’davious White out they probably all get softer matchups than expected.

The run game has come to life too with Fournette playing well and catching the ball a lot with Antonio Brown out of the team. He’s had 8, 6, 7, 7 receptions in the last month including 4 on the first drive alone last week. His line has jumped up to 5.5 now but seems fine still. He found the endzone with a receiving score again last week.

They’re still not great defensively, every time someone returns another gets injured, the Bills should be able to move the ball through the air, if they’re a challenger.

Obviously I think the Bucs win and cover, should be an exciting game.

Chicago Bears +11.5 @ Green Bay Packers: 42.5

Annnnd a not so exicting prime-time game to close out the night. The league obviously prefer viewing figures to entertainment, fair enough, I’m sure some people will enjoy this one.

The Bears have Justin Fields back and Andy Dalton now missing a game with a hand injury. It’s safe to say that Fields hasn’t exactly impressed, but his mobility is something for fans to look forward to and this week he gets the strongest offense his team has had in weeks to play with.

David Montgomery and Allen Robinson (yes, he’s still there) are both off the injury report and play. Monty looked good last week in the rain game, while Robinson has been banged up for most of the year, a fully healthy A Rob is good, if they use him. Darnell Mooney has been really good with Robinson out while there’s not really a WR3, Cole Kmet and Jimmy Graham have been fine at TE.

It’s a healthier outlook for the Packers too who are grinding out their usual 13-3 type regular season. Currently 1 win behind the Cardinals in the chase for the #1 seed the week off should have been good for Aaron Rodgers and his toe. They might have Jaire Alexander back for this one after was designated to return from the IR this week.

Not too much to say about the Packers really, Jones and Dillon are a good partnership at RB, Davante Adams is one of the best in the league and has scored at least 1 TD vs. the Bears in each of the last 5 seasons (didn’t score in their first meeting) – While Randall Cobb had been fine for them, he’s on IR now, so the likes of Allan Lazard and MVS should get more action too. Cobb was actually second in the team in redzone targets, they have to go somewhere. Maybe Jesse Deguara gets more looks down there.

This should be a routine win for the Packers, as Rodgers said earlier, they own this team, winning and covering the spread in each of the last 5 matches between the two.

Best Bets

As always, 2 pt stake unless stated otherwise.

Last week saw more profit, and we’re now sitting around 60 points up on the season.

Spreads

  • Saints -5.5
  • Cowboys -5
  • Bucs -3.5

TD Scorers

  • Rashard Higgins anytime – 10/1 (Betfair) – 1 pt
  • Corey Clement – 9/1 (Coral/Unibet) – 1 pt
  • Rashaad Penny – 13/5 (Betfair)
  • Dawson Knox – 9/4 (365/vBet)
  • Joe Mixon – 10/11 (365)
  • Davante Adams – 5/6 (PP/Betfair)

Player props

  • Taysom Hill o53.5 rush yards – 365 (365)
  • Penny o37.5 rush yards – 5/6 (PP)
  • James O’Shaughnessy o2.5 receptions – 20/29 (365)

Good luck if you’re following, or whatever you’re betting this week.

As always we’ve got our Draftkings slates running – Check out NFL-DFS.com for some advice on building a line-up this week.

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