Week 15; Sunday Previews

With Omicron sweeping the world the NFL was predictably affected and as a result have moved a few games to later in the week, on the plus side for us that means NFL pretty much every day leading up to Christmas and a double-header on Christmas Day evening, which is nice.

Monday now sees the Raiders @ Browns at 2200 GMT with the proper MNF Vikings @ Bears after it, Tuesday the Seahawks @ Rams and Washington @ Eagles both take place at midnight. Wednesday off, Then 49ers @ Titans as the schedule goes around to week 16. So… fun times ahead!

The league and NFLPA have announced new measures to curb the impact going forward in that vacinnated players showing no symptoms won’t have to be tested, only if showing symptoms which should lessen the amount of positives to a large extent.

I won’t get into the larger situation in the actual real world other than to say it sucks and Christmas is going to be a weird few weeks once more. Great.

This preview will be a little curtailed today as I was evidently in need of a lie-in after a week of walking 17 miles a day delivering cards and presents. This time of the year is terrible for posties and the company doing absolutely nothing to aid us this year will be great for their profit margins, but terrible for the health of their staff. Yay privatisation and money. Annnnnnnnnnnywaaaaaayyyyy…

Arizona Cardinals -12.5 @ Detroit Lions: 47

The Cardinals relinquished the #1 with a loss to the Rams on Monday night but get a nice easy lay-up to get back on track here, they should stomp the Lions.

DeAndre Hopkins is going to miss the rest of the regular season with the injury that’s hampered him all year, they’ll be hoping he’s back for the playoffs.

The Lions are without Swift again and Hockenson is done for the year, so there’s your two fun players out of the game. Dan Campbell keeps them playing hard though which rules out taking the Cards on the spread for me, always a chance of a back door cover.

Realistically the Cards should win and do it comfortably, but nothing on the main lines. Kyler has been running a lot since returning from injury but with Chase Edmonds being activated from the IR and an easy matchup I won’t be taking his overs this week. Conner is 4/5 to score for the 7th game in a row (CoraLadbrokes), I can’t avoid taking that.

Carolina Panthers +13 @ Buffalo Bills: 44

The Panthers have really shit the bed this year, I fancied them to finish 2nd in division and getting out to a 3-0 start it looked good, but they proved against any but the worst teams in the league they’re not great. Darnold is returning soon in the meantime they’ll switch between Cam (first drive and probably a TD) and PJ Walker (not very good) and lose the game.

The Bills smash terrible teams, an average margin of around 25 points in their wins against the dregs of the league. Even with Josh Allen carrying a knock they should be able to deal with the Panthers despite the fact their defense has shown to be all right this year. You’ve got to think they’ll try and get the run game going as they look to make a playoff push.

This game doesn’t mean much for the Bills with the Pats on deck next week to decide the division. They SHOULD spank the Panthers, and I’d lean to them covering if I had to pick a side, but Panthers team total under might be a more sensible look. Zack Moss at 9/2 a tentative look for a scorer, but there’s equal chance he’s inactive. I’ll keep taking Dawson Knox at 9/4 though

Dallas Cowboys -11 @ New York Giants: 44.5

Things aren’t exactly going smoothly for the Cowboys offense, Dak is off his game and the running backs have been banged up, it looks like Tyron Smith will miss this game too, but does that really make a difference when you’re playing Mike Glennon? Nope.

It does make calling the game tougher, the Giants defense hasn’t been terrible but with Zeke getting a full week of practise he should get more carries than last week, if needed. Corey Clement stepped into the Pollard role as a heavier, older version of the explosive youngster, he got carries. That’s about all I can say on him. The Cowboys defense is the unit to watch though, I know they get hype as they’re on this team but Micah Parsons really is fun to watch and a legit DPOY candidate as the sway of the Cowboys automatically nudges him up a few spots.

The Giants will complete the game and move on to next week.

Cowboys win, probably cover. Tim from F10Y likes the over, he’s a Cowboys fan so I’ll just note that here.

Houston Texans +4.5 @ Jacksonville Jaguars: 39.5

This game looked like a banker for the Texans before Urban Meyer got fired in the week, the removable of a clearly hated figure in the Jags organisation though moved the line from Jags by 3.5 to 4.5. A head coach leaving increased the chances the team won. What an utter cunt he must have been. So this is the week for Trevor Lawrence to prove how good he is after all the blame for his terrible performances so far has gone on to Meyer. Show me Trevor.

They still have no talent in the pass-catching group for Lawrence to throw to and I’m sure that will get mentioned as he air-mails his recievers into the hands of waiting DBs… Ok I’ll stop now. I’ll give him a few games next year to make my opinion on his skills in the NFL. Back to the game James Robinson should get a hefty workload, it turns out myb prediction for that last week was a little off. His rushing line this week though is up to 82.5 from 48.5 a week ago with the change of coaching. I can’t take that, but his rec. line is only up 2 yards to 17.5. I’ll go over on that.

Davis Mills completed 14 passes in a row to open the Texans game last week. That is the most consecutive passes completed to start a game by a rookie since at least 1991 and the most consecutive passes completed to start a game by any player in Texans history. Maybe he’s the better QB on the field today…

My interest in this game has wained since Meyer was removed from football. I’d still probably take the Texans to win, but realistically neither should want to.

New York Jets +9.5 @ Miami Dolphins: 41.5

https://bookies.com/nfl/picks/new-york-jets-at-miami-dolphins-free-picks-betting-predictions

One of my paid previews. Opinion hasn’t changed much despite the strong move to the Dolphins, still expect them to cover and probably under. Jets suck.

Gaskin back, 7/5 the best price for him to score at smaller books.

Tennessee Titans +1.5 @ Pittsburgh Steelers: 43

This is a weird one. At the current strength of their rosters, I don’t think either team is very good. So the quality probably won’t be high in this one, but the game might actually be entertaining and I have joined Drew from the Deep Dive pod in thinking the over is a good look.

The Titans shut out the Jags last week, well done them. But they’re not a strong defense, and the offense hasn’t looked great since they lost their 2 best players however I don’t think the Steelers defense is good either so Dont’a Foreman should have a good game as the main rusher and if Tannehill can get some usage out of Julio and the others in the passing game they should be able to move the ball.

If the Titans get out to a lead as teams have been doing against this bunch of bums in black and yellow then we should get the over. Big Ben has 2 home games left to showcase his waining abilities, something that he has done in patches, like last week where they scored 28 points in the second half, and a splurge against the Chargers with 27 in the 4th quarter. They can put up points when the game is over.

I really hope they work something out with Ben and he returns next year, it would be a shame for his shining legacy to end in a losing season. Figure it out Yinzers.

I think the right team are favorites, TJ Watt is playing, therefore they’ll be all right. If he doesn’t play then they’ll lose. Simple as that really. I do like Dont’a Foreman anytime at 7/4 (365)

Oh, a random bet I did like (props to the Deep dive again, Steelers o10.5 second half – 23/20)

Green Bay Packers -7 @ Baltimore Ravens: 44.5

6.5 lines are freely available, I always quote my lines from Redzone though.

Will Lamar Jackson play? Does it matter? The main intrigue in this game, I think he plays, I don’t think he’ll be 100%, I’m not sure it really matters.

https://bookies.com/nfl/picks/green-bay-packers-at-baltimore-ravens-free-picks-betting-predictions

Another professional preview on this one, the line has been all over the place on whispers about Lamar. I’m taking the Packers to cover regardless of the line. Would have preferred the 4.5 obviously. I can see 150 and 2 TDs for Devante Adams today as they abuse the beaten-up Ravens secondary.

Adams to score a TD is 5/6 at 365, if you want larger odds I don’t mind a look at Deguara again but 11/2 is probably a little stingy for me, he caught his redzone target last week.

Atlanta Falcons +8.5 @ San Francisco 49ers: 47

The Shanahan bowl. The Falcons are technically still in the running for the playoff spot so it’s safe to say they’ll be playing hard in the bay area. There’s not a lot to say about the Falcons really, Cordarrelle Patterson is a literal MVP for a team in the league, they’re inept without him, he tied the most carries of his season in the win against the Panthers last week, I was looking at going over his rec. yards but recent games don’t back that up. 27.5 seems low but he’s only done that once in the last 6 games, it was 126 yards, but it’s not a recent occurrence like it was earlier in the season.

George Kittle beasted the Bengals to win the game for them last week, he’s been great since returning from injury, 13 from 15 for 151, two 150+ games in a row, 6 TDs in 6 games. He’s fairly important for them. They will be without Mitchell again so the running game goes through Jeff Wilson and Deebo.

The 49ers need a win to keep up their playoff push. Their home record hasn’t been good, so a loss wouldn’t surprise me but they should win. I can’t take them to cover the spread though. Hayden Hurst is worth a shot at 9/1.

Cincinnati Bengals +3 @ Denver Broncos: 44

The first play-off game of the season? The loser here probably stays home although the Bengals will likely still only be 1 game behind in the AFC North with the Ravens on deck next week.

The head coaching let the Bengals down last week which has been a worry for the whole season, Burrow is playing very, very well, 6/1 for CBPOY isn’t the worst bet ever but they need a win here. Mixon runs the ball well and this is the softest test the offensive line has had for a number of weeks so they should be able to get the ball moving this week. Ja’marr Chase bounced back into OROY contention with a couple last week it could have been more, he needs to cut out the concentration drops which has popped up a few times this year, Tee Higgins has been quietly excellent.

The Broncos are similarly built but with a lesser QB. They have a great two-headed run game, both Javonte and Melvin scored 2 last week against the Lions, and both can catch the ball. They have a good trio of WRs with Juedy, Patrick, Sutton and the tight ends add to the offense as well. The secondary is good but the beaten up pass rush not so good.

This is quite rightly one of the closer lines of the week. I think the Bengals get pressure on Teddy and have a run defense which should slow the Broncos run game, but they allow big pays and the Broncos have talented kids. The Bengals should give Joey time and I’m hopeful he carves them up.

If the Bengals get out to a lead they should win, but the Broncos have put up big scores against good teams and are capable of that…

Maybe controversial, but these two could be 12 win teams next year with good off-seasons.

New Orleans Saints +11 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 46

The Saints beat the Bucs earlier in the season with a very different set of players on the field. I think it’s safe to say Tommy will have remembered that game and want to stomp on this nuisance team this week.

Taysom and Alvin, that’s the offense for the Saints. Kamara returned with a ton of work last week and Taysom broke off a big run to ice the game against the Jets and go over his rush yards line. The Bucs run D is fearsome though so it might be a long night for the ‘aints.

Mike Evans is usually shut down for Lattimore, no bother, just throw it to Chris Godwin another 17 times, then give Gronk the TDs, or let Lenny run it. It’s boring but the Bucs are rightly the faves for another Superbowl appearance, they’re a very balanced team and are getting the job done on a weekly basis.

The Bucs need to keep winning to pressure the Packers for the #1 seed at the top of the NFC. They should do, but I won’t take them to cover in a rivalry match like this.

Best bets

Should be worth noting I had a VERY good week last week to add to a good month, but these things have a tendency of even-ing out, I am expecting a rough week at some point, hopefully not this one before Christmas, but don’t be relying on results here to sort your Christmas presents!

Spreads

  • Packers -6.5 – 10/11

Totals

  • Steelers second half team total o10.5 – 23/20 (Redzone)
  • Bengals team total – o20.5 – 1/1 (Redzone)

TD Scorers

  • James Conner – 4/5 (Coral/Ladbrokes)
  • Dawson Knox – 9/4 (Skybet)
  • Devante Adams – 5/6 (365/vBet)
  • Dont’a Foreman – 7/4 (365)
  • Myles Gaskin – 13/10 (365)
  • Hayden Hurst – 9/1 (Betfair) – 1 point stake

Enjoy the weekend, enjoy the week of games. I will hopefully get something done for the surprise mid-week games, but it all depends on time and workload in real life. Which has been extreme recently for obvious reasons.

If you like DFS then obviously have a read of Tom’s preview at NFL-DFS.com. I am hoping to extend over there next year, again, all depends on time, but things are in the off-ing to concentrate more on this side of my life so will see how that all goes.

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