A little bit of a bounceback on last Sunday’s selections, annoyingly most of my leans to the spreads and totals were correct so perhaps I should concentrate on those rather than props?
This week sees the first international series game as the Vikings take on the Saints at Twickenham, unfortunately, it’s another year away from them for me so I hope everyone who’s making it enjoys it, this one should be good.
These are the lines from a week ago, should be good to see the movement from early lines to where we are now on a Friday eve/Sat morning.
- Vikings (-1) at Saints: Over 44.5
- NY Jets at Steelers (-3.5): 42.5
- Browns (-3) at Falcons: 45
- Titans at Colts (-3.5): 44.5
- Bills (-4) at Ravens: 55
- Chargers (-7) at Texans: 46
- Seahawks at Lions (-5.5): 46
- Commanders at Cowboys (-2.5): 43
- Broncos (+1.5) at Raiders: 46
- Patriots at Packers (-6.5): 42.5
- LA Rams (+1) at 49ers: 48
- Jaguars at Eagles (-7): 48
- Cardinals (-3) at Panthers: 46.5
- Chiefs at Buccaneers (-1): 48.5
- Bears at NY Giants (-3): 39.5
As always our DraftKings contest is up and running, with the $5 entry, 30 entrants, top 3 get paid and top prize is $67.50 –Enter here – the main one of offer, if that’s full then you can join our league to get notified when it’s set up each week – TouchdownTips invitational
Right, on to this weekend, with lines from 888sports.co.uk – Home of the NFL in the UK. (I’ll put 365 underneath as there’s some discrepancy on a lot of the lines…
Vikings (-3.5) at Saints: Over 42
London 1430 GMT Kick-off
So the first game of the international series arrives and it’s a re-match at QB of the Redskins vs Bengals from a few years ago (a game I did attend) which finished in a tie as the Washington kicker missed the winner in OT. Hell of a fun game in fairness.
The Vikings are sitting at 2-1 after divisional wins against the Packers and Lions sandwiching a dicking from the Eagles. They haven’t been able to get Justin Jefferson going since the opener which will be a worry for them and the Saints defense is pretty good. Adam Thielen and KJ Osborn both stepped up in place of Jeff last week to gain them the win and they’ll probably have to do the same here.
Dalvin Cook is officially a go after dislocating his shoulder last week, apparently, it happens and is no biggie, Alexander Mattison is a good replacement should he go down during the game.
Kirk Cousins. Not 1pm CT kick-off… that’s a worry.
The Saints brought 4-fracture Jameis over but he’s out of this game, so Andy Dalton gets the start, that might not be a terrible thing for them as the injury was clearly affecting Winston in their loss last week. Michael Thomas being out could be an issue for them though, I’m sure Dalton would have had him as his prime target, but it looks like Landry and Olave are good to go.
Alvin Kamara will play, I can foresee a lot of dump-offs to him from Dalton behind an offensive line which may well remind him of the sieves he played behind in Cincy, it’s not been good this year.
The line has moved off the three towards the Vikings with these injuries. Games at Spurs stadium have tended to go over the totals and while this one has dropped on injury news I’d still take the over. Vikings cover. Alvin Kamara o3.5 receptions – 1/1 (888)
NY Jets (+4.5) at Steelers: 41.5
Jets +3.5 at Bet365.
Zach Wilson gets his first start of the season for the Jets taking over from Joe Flacco who had his moment vs. the Browns but looked awful last week, so while I don’t rate Wilson it can’t be deemed a drop-down in quality at the position and they need to see what they have in the kid for the future.
Their rookie class has been performing well with Garrett Wilson and behind only Davante Adams in redzone targets, something you’d imagine will carry on even without Flacco, while Breece Hall has increasingly been involved on the ground and looked fine doing it. Michael Carter the other player there getting mixed in as well. They have talent on offense, it’s not all dismal for them.
Trubisky and the Steelers offense is dismal. They can’t move the ball on the ground or through the air and the calls for Kenny Pickett will be louder this week if it continues in a game they’ll expect to win. They are without TJ Watt and maybe without Minkah Fitzpatrick who was in concussion protocol this week. Najee isn’t running well, the pass-catchers are limited by their QB… it’s a mess there in all honesty.
I can only lean to the Jets getting 4.5, but there’s no chance I’m taking them. Breece Hall o2.5 receptions – 11/10 (365/Skybet)
Browns (-1.5) at Falcons: 47.5
A team I will be taking is the Browns, I tipped them as my Best Bet on the Full10yards betting podcast this week. A fairly simple handicap in fairness. They’re the best run team in the NFL, the Falcons are bottom 5 in rush defense this year despite going up against teams who are terrible at running the ball.
Simple as that.
The Nick Chubb rushing line is high, but he should go over it.
I actually quite like the Falcons this year, Mariota is doing well, Cordarelle Patterson running well and Drake London is the fave for OROY after his start to the season, you’ve got to think they’ll give Kyle Pitts eventually gets some redzone targets at some point.
Browns -1 for the win. Have to go under on the total. Chubb o89.5 rush yards.
Titans (+3.5) at Colts: 43
A game that most of us thought would be important for the AFC South title, but frankly neither of these teams look like they’ll be better than the Jaguars which is something I never thought I’d say. The Titans are struggling to get things going although beat the Raiders last weekend, they need Derrick Henry running well and they can work things out off of that facet. He was a little better last week and they used him more through the air which we’ve been asking them to do for a while.
The Colts are 1-1-1, lovely stuff. They beat the Chiefs last week in a game they really had no right winning, Matt Ryan still isn’t looking great at QB, Jonathan Taylor averaging 3.4 per carry is a long way from where he was last year, I’m starting to think the offensive line isn’t very good. Pittman and Pierce are a week away from injury and should be involved a lot. While it will be interesting to see how they use Jelani Woods after 2 TDs from 2 receptions last week. He’s a big lad.
The Colts are the better team, the Titans have the better coach. Not touching it, but lean to Colts and over.
Bills (-2.5) at Ravens: 51
Bills -3 at Bet365.
The game of the weekend takes place in Baltimore with the two MVP favourites duking it out in what should be a high-scoring game, not only due to the offense but the injuries on defense that both teams are struggling with.
The Bills massive out-statted the Dolphins in their win last week with 40 minutes of possession yet somehow contrived to fall to their first loss of the season, Josh Allen is playing at the highest level with Stefon Diggs his main man in the passing attack, but Isaiah McKenzie and Jamison Crowder filling in well with Gabrial Davis injured for the last couple, he should be looking better this week although has still been on the injury report this week.
They’re still nowhere near full strength on defense, which is good for entertainment value.
Lamar Jackson has no weapons to throw to, but has still managed 10 TDs already through three games with Mark Andrews being a beast as always, Rashod Bateman getting open downfield and Devin Duvernay surprisingly showing up well with at least 1 score in each game this season. The run game has been terrible outside of Lamar Jackson who has 100 yards and a TD in each of his last two. He’s just too hard to stop at the moment.
Remarkably this isn’t the sky game this weekend, they’ve chosen, of all teams, the Jaguars… I would have to lean to the Bills -2.5, Ravens +3 to be honest, should be close, but I love the over. Lamar Jackson o1.5 passing TDs – 23/20 (365), Ravens highest scoring team at 18/1 at Skybet is tempting as well if you think they win this one, I’ll have a point on that.
Chargers (-5.5) at Texans: 45.5
Chargers gonna charger… I admit it, I bought into the hype. I’m stupid. They won the off-season as they do every year and then the games start and it all falls to pieces. Justin Herbert is playing through his rib cartilage injury and while he made one beautiful side-arm pass on the run last week it’s clearly affecting him as is Keenan Allen being out, as he is again after aggravating his injury in the week. So it’s another week of Mike Williams leading them with Deandre Carter and Josh Palmer? Gerald Everett? It’s tough for them at the moment.
It doesn’t help that they haven’t got the ground game going with Austin Ekeler killing fantasy managers all over the globe, he gets a good matchup here so if he can’t do it today there may be worrying issues.
The Texans are one of the worst three teams in the league, Davis Mills is below average so the passing game is tough to have any faith in but Dameon Pierece looked pretty good last week against Da Bears.
I’ve heard quite a few people on the Texans, I can’t do it. Would have to lean to the Chargers winning and covering, and probably under on the total but it’s a no bet game for me.
Seahawks (+3.5) at Lions: 48
Seahawks +4 at Bet365
The Seahawks are as poor as we thought coming into the season, Geno Smith isn’t going to win them games and much like Davis Mills it’s made it very tough to have any faith in DK metcalf or Tyler Lockett. It doesn’t help that they can’t get the run game going with Rashard Penny and Kenneth Walker not pulling up any trees thus far. Their defense stinks too.
The Lions defense also stinks outside of Jeff Okudah who’s been locking players down so far, but their offense has been very fun, this week they’re missing their two main men in D’Andre Swift who could be out until week 7 (with their week 6 bye) and Amon-Ra St. Brown who’s been outstanding this year. So Jamaal Williams gets the main role, Craig Reynolds behind him while Josh Reynolds becomes the WR1? Burt would be proud of his boys… Josh has been struggling with injury this week too… Kalif Raymond and Quintez Cephus are there, but you’ve got to think it will be more TJ Hockenson as the big TE has more rapport with his QB.
With the Lions injuries I have to lean to the stinkhawks, I’d have loved the over, but have to lean under on the total as well. Will Dissly anytime – 11/2 (Skybet)
Commanders at Cowboys (-3.5): 41.5
Commanders -3 at 365.
Carson Wentz is QB6 in fantasy, but my goodness the Commanders aren’t a good team. Terry Mclaurin is a stud, he had over 100 yards last week as they got destroyed by the Eagles. Antonio Gibson isn’t taking his chance of keeping his job averaging 3 ypc so far, hey, Jahan Dotson looks all right? I can’t talk about the Commies, I think they’re guff on both sides of the ball.
Things are looking better for the Cowboys though with Cooper Rush still 100% in his career as a starter, Ceedee Lamb showed up last week and Noah Brown had another decent game. The ground game has been very good with Zeke and Pollard but their defense has been the key to winning games with DPOY leader Micah Parsons smashing things.
Cowboys cover the spread. Have to lean under.
Jaguars at Eagles (-5.5): 45.5
Jaguars +6.5 at Bet365
The Jaguars are the sky game… what a time to be alive. In fairness they’ve been very good this year with Trevor Lawrence looking like he can actually play ball, he didn’t put a foot wrong in their rout of the Chargers last week and has built a good partnership with Christian Kirk already. The run game has been great with James Robinson looking well coming off a serious injury but they’ve not really got Travis Etienne going yet and the Jones’ brothers are a good double along with Kirk.
Their defense has shown up this year led by Josh Allen up front and they’ve got two of the top 5 in the DROY betting in Devin Lloyd and Travon Walker. The Jags did something well?
The Eagles are living up to the pre-season hype as the only unbeaten team in the league and they’ve dominated their games. They’re top 5 or 6 for OL and DL rankings and Jalen Hurts has been imperious both rushing and passing the ball. AJ Brown and Devonta Smith could be the second best duo in the league (behind Tee and Chase of course) and their run game has done well with their rotating backs.
This is rightfully the Sky game and should be very interesting, I think the Eagles will be too much for the Jags though and I’d take them covering the spread. Eagles first half is probably the bet though as they’ve been stomping on teams and then letting up for the rest of the game.
Bears (+2.5) at NY Giants: 38.5
Bears +3 at Bet365
One of these teams will be 3-1.
One. Of. THESE TEAMS. Will be 3-1. Just let that settle in for a minute.
And you know what, it might be the Bears. Three wins for the Bears… Just… I can’t.
Khalil Herbert is a beast and gets the full role today with Montgomery officially out already. Justin Fields is not good, Velus Jones should make his debut at WR.
The Giants are Saquon Barkley and that’s about it, all their WRs are injured… David Sills? Richie James? Kenny Golladay seems to be actively trying to hurt the team who gave him 17m per year.
With the injuries for the Giants I have to lean to the Bears which is horrible to say. Obviously no bets on this game. Khalil Herbert anytime – 6/4 (Betfred, 13/10 PP)
Cardinals (+1) at Panthers: 43.5
This is one we struggled with on the pod, we don’t understand how the Panthers can be faves against anyone, especially with Christian McCaffrey coming in injured, their passing game is not great with Baker at QB, but in fairness their defense has been pretty good.
The Cardinals haven’t been great either with really only two good quarters this season, but Kyler Murray is 2-0 over Baker in his career and is the main reason to watch this game. AJ Green is out but Rondale Moore should make his seasonal debut as WR2 behind Marquise Brown who had a ton of 5 yard catches last weekend and it looks like James conner is back at RB.
Got to take the Cardinals winning, and over on the total, why not?
Broncos (+2.5) at Raiders: 45.5
AFC West clash that’s really not very exciting. The Broncos haven’t got going so far yet sit at 2-1 and feeling pretty good about themselves despite not looking great.
Honestly, I’ve not paid much attention to them this year, they are putting up yards but not scoring with a good 1-2 at RB in Gordon and Williams, Sutton and Jeudy very good WRs, but things just aren’t happening for them, turns out having a poor coach can stop talent succeeding.
The Raiders are looking for their first win, and doing it without Hunter Renfrow in this one, so you’d expect a big Davante Adams game, but you would have thought that last week and he was poor then, so who knows, again coaching hurts talent. Josh Jacobs is an average running back, Derek Carr an average QB.
Meh, as you may be able to tell this game does nothing for me. Raiders are desperate, they get their win.
Patriots (+9.5) at Packers: 40.5
The Patriots run game has been very good this year and they’ll need it to be here with Mac Jones ruled out, so Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson should get a heavy workload, there’s talk this week of Stevenson taking the lead role but we’ll believe that when we see it.
The Packers haven’t been great either, but Romeo Doubs turned up last week and Rodgers has praised him this week so we’ll see if he tops his 8 receptions from last week. Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon will likley get a lot of work in a very run-heavy game from both sides.
Can’t imagine many drives for either team here with rushing the order of the day for both, but you’ve got to take the Pakcers covering and under on the total. Stevenson anytime – 7/2 (Betfred, 3s elsewhere is fine) – Also a little surprised to see Jones and Dillon both above evens but I’m invested heavily in Dillon already this year so won’t be backing him here
Chiefs (+1) at Buccaneers: 45.5
A rematch of Super Bowl LV where the Bucs pass rush blew up the game against Mahomes, that was a pivotal moment for them and they now have one of the best OL’s in the league. I can’t judge the Chiefs though, their run game isn’t great, and the loss of Hill might be showing. Travis Kelce is of course a beast still but the tertiary pieces around him haven’t stood out, who’d have thunk Juju couldn’t do it as a WR1… shocking. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been active in the passing game though, which is nice.
The Bucs are welcoming back their pass-catching stars this week with Godwin and Julio both expected to play after injuries and Mike Evans back from suspension so they’ll be much better to watch than recent weeks, although Brady has still been able to get the ball down the field even with duds catching the ball.
They are predicated on their defense which has been outstanding this year allowing 9 points a game on average.
The storm has passed in Tampa, the weather is predicted to be fine. I’ve been Chiefs all week but with players returning for the Bucs I’m now not quite as sure. I think I lean to the Bucs due to their defense, and under on the total.
LA Rams (+1.5) at 49ers: 42.5
Monday night preview coming tomorrow.