Week 5; Monday Night Football

The NFL has continued to deliver so far in Week 5 with another nail-biting finish in the London game and several others being decided by last minute interceptions or missed field goals. All the talk heading into the weekend was of the “parity” throughout the league and that remains the case – in only two divisions is the leader three wins (or more) ahead of the team at the bottom of the division. 

The Chiefs (3-1) have a chance to make that three in tonight’s Monday Night Football matchup against the Raiders (1-3). 

Las Vegas Raiders +7.5 @ Kansas City Chiefs: 52.0

Since Patrick Mahomes became the starter for the Chiefs they are 7-1 against the Raiders and have scored under 30 points just once in those games. The Raiders would have hoped that the moves they have made since the end of last season would have brought them closer to the Chiefs, but after starting 1-3 they could find themselves out of the running for the division already with a loss tonight. 

Raiders

The Raiders invested a hell of a lot of money into their offense in the off-season with new deals for Derek Carr, Davante Adams (after trading for him) and Darren Waller. Ironically, it might be the one player they decided not to offer a new deal to (or even pick up his fifth year option) that could be the focal point of the offense moving forward. After starting the season 0-3, the Raiders finally handed all of the running back opportunities to Josh Jacobs last week and he returned the favour with a career high 144 yards and two touchdowns, leading them to their first win of the season against the Broncos. 

I think the plan will be to lean on Jacobs again this week and I do like his line of 61.5 rushing yards but I’m just not sure this is the week to take the over, given the Chiefs allowed just three rushing yards to the Bucs last week. He might instead be a good bet to hit the over on 18.5 receiving yards, which is something he has managed the last two weeks and in his previous two games against the Chiefs.

As seems to be a common theme for me in these primetime games, my favourite bet is for the visiting quarterback to throw an interception. Derek Carr has thrown one in each of his last seven games against the Chiefs and is evens to do so again (Paddy Power). 

I am leaning towards the under on Darren Waller’s line of 51 yards with Davante Adams currently taking over 30% of the targets and Hunter Renfrow returning from injury. You can get Adams’ line at either 75.5 or 79.5, with the volume he should hit the over but both the Titans and Cardinals have successfully taken him out of the game already this season so it’s an avoid for me. 

Chiefs

The Chiefs shot themselves in the foot in their Week 3 loss to the Colts but bounced back impressively on both sides of the ball against the Buccaneers last week. Mahomes is only behind Lamar Jackson in touchdown percentage and Josh Allen in touchdown passes and given he averages almost three per game against the Raiders it wouldn’t be a surprise if he was able to finish the week leading both of those categories. You can get him at 7/5 at Bet365 to have over 2.5 passing TD’s in this game. 

As expected Travis Kelce is once again the focal point of the receiving game, averaging 6.5 catches and 80 yards per game. His line tonight is 72.5 yards and I think it’s a pretty strong bet that he goes over that, he’s only failed to hit that twice against the Raiders with Mahomes at QB. I would lean the under on the rest of the receiving corps and Smith-Schuster has the highest line at 49.5. 

Only Nick Chubb boasts a better touchdown per game ratio among non quarterbacks this season than Clyde Edwards-Helaire (five in four games). He also has multiple touchdowns in his previous two meetings with the Raiders and so I think 21/20 for him to score in this game is worth a bet. 

Who wins?

It’s impossible to bet against Mahomes and the Chiefs at Arrowhead and I would also lean towards them covering. But given that the winning team has scored 35+ in seven of the last eight meetings I will hope history repeats itself and take the over.