Week 6 of the season is already here and things are starting to shape up in the league; The Eagles are the only unbeaten team left, every team has at least one win and we’re maybe starting to see that some teams may have been a little fraudulent last year.
We had a decent weekend last week with suggested bets with a number of the props coming in including the Titans first quarter meaning they’ve won every 1st qtr this season still, we can’t bet that this week though as they’re on bye along with the Raiders, Lions and Texans.
As always check out https://nfl-dfs.com/2022/10/16/2022week6/ for advice on your DraftKings line-ups
49ers -4.5 at Falcons: 45
(Sky Game, apparently)
The second of two road games for the 49ers and they’ve stayed away from home in the meantime having a mini-training camp on the road, it’s something they’ve done for the last few years and it’s worked well with them 4-0 in the second of two road games. They did lose another couple of players for the season as they tend to do every year, but the offense should be fine.
Jeff Wilson had 120 and a TD last week, Deebo found the endzone and Aiyuk and Kittle got involved as well as Jimmy G settles back into the team. Tevin Coleman was the unlikely recipient of a lot of work in their walkover of the Panthers with 1 rushing and 1 receiving TD. Let’s see what kind of work he gets this week, in fairness it should be a lot against one of the worst run defenses in the league.
The Falcons are well coached but missing Cordarelle Patterson at RB is a big loss for them. They used Allgeier and Huntley as their main RBs last week with 21 carries at around 4ypc for them against the Bucs. Mariota has been pretty good for most of the year but struggled last week and faces another top 5 defense in this one.
The 49ers and Cowboys are the two teams who’ve not allowed 20 points in a game this season, that should carry on here. I’m surprised the line has dropped from 5.5 earlier in the week, I like the 49ers to cover the spread in this one.
Jaguars +1 at Colts: 41
The first re-match of the season after the Jaguars shut out the Colts for a 24-0 win just a few weeks ago, and things haven’t got much better for the Colts here as they come into it without Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines who both most the majority of their dismal struggle against the Broncos 10 days ago on Thursday Night Football.
The Jaguars have come back down to earth a little since that game too with losses to the Eagles and the Texans, although they dominated the stats against their divisional rival, Trevor Lawrence showed he’s still got fuck ups in him. They’re without Marv Jones, but will more than likely go run-heavy with James Robinson and Travis Etienne… It looks like Etienne may be starting to get more of the ball at RB now, that could have been situational, but Etienne has over 50% of RBs snaps compared to 47 and 40 for Robinson in their last two games.
The Colts will have Deon Jackson and Phillip Lindsay at RB? What a time to be alive. Alec Pierce and Michael Pittman are at least a decent WR duo although the lack of time for Matt Ryan could again be an issue for the Colts here against a good Jags pass rush. My god the Colts have been a disappointing mess this year.
I’ve got to lean to the Jags winning, they’re somehow the better team here, and Under on the total, probably not the most entertaining game to watch.
Travis Etienne longest reception o11.5 yards, he’s gone over this line in every game he’s had a reception (4/5 this season) alternate was 18.5 total rec. yards which is fine too.
Buccaneers -10 at Steelers: 46
The Buccs are slowly getting healthier as the year goes on, they’ve got Mike Evans and Chris Godwin back and it looks like Russell Gage should be a go here, although Julio Jones is officially doubtful which means he’s unlikely to play. They’re doing fine on defense although they’re usually league-leading rush defense is mid-table according to DVOA. That shouldn’t matter too much in this game though.
The Steelers are in a for a year of crap, they’ve been poor without TJ Watt and have lost players on defense every single week, they come into this one without 3 of their CBs, Minkah Fitzpatrick and Friermuth at TE… It’s not great. Pickett has been a typical rookie, in fairness he’s put up yards and the connection with Pickens seems legit with 102 and 83 yards in two games with his fellow rookie at QB, and you know if he makes any kind of catch that the NFL will be re-tweeting it no matter how average it is.
Bucs should win and do it easily, George Pickens o46.5 rec. yards the bet for me, only up 6 yards after last week.
Jets +7.5 at Packers: 45
An interesting one here, the Jets are surprisingly average so far this year and their rookies have turned up. Breece Hall had 100 through the air and 97 on the ground last week, Garrett Wilson has looked good and Sauce Gardner has been one of the best CBs in the league so far even having faced some of the better WRs in the league. Zach Wilson has looked fine since coming back in and they’ve got a couple of wins together.
The Packers aren’t taking their bye after the loss in London so actually come into this one having had more travel than the road team. They fell apart in the second half last week and I, for one would like to see them lean on the run game, although we all know that Rodgers has to be the centre of attention so I’m not sure they’ll do that. Romeo Doubs looks to have a decent connection with his QB, but the passing attack is average at best.
The Jets should be able to run the ball well against a poor run defense and Breece Hall and Michael Carter have looked a decent 1-2. There should be a lot of rush yards in this game from both sides.
I’ve got to take the Jets covering the spread, but equally, I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Packers win by 15. Weird game, and one that will need re-watching to see what goes on.
Bengals -3 at Saints: 43
It’s Who DEY vs. Who Dat as my Bengals travel to take on the Saints. It’s been a frustrating year so far for Cinci with 3 losses by a total of 8 points, but the offense hasn’t been clicking and that’s something they’ll need to sort it, their very good defense can’t do it all for the whole season.
It’s a return to Louisiana for Burrow and Chase as they smashed teams up in this stadium for LSU in college, and they’ll look to do the same against a Saints side missing their best CB in Marshon Lattimore. The Bengals will want Tee Higgins to play and while it seems he’s trending that way, we’re not sure what kind of role he’ll get, if he misses then you’d think they’ll try and get the ball to Tyler Boyd more as he’s been under-used so far. Joe Mixon finally ran the ball well in their game 10 days ago against the Ravens.
Their defense is the only one in the league yet to allow a second-half TD to their opponents.
It’s a revenge game for Andy Dalton who has won every game against his former side, but he’ll have to do it without Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry who miss out once more. I have a real issue with Michael Thomas being a bitch since he signed his massive deal. Chris Olave was slammed into the ground last week but it seems unlikely that he makes it through concussion protocol to here, if it hadn’t been for the Dolphins and the Tua incident he’d be playing but keep an eye on it. Alvin Kamara will play, so that’s good for them. The TrautMannnnnnn scored for us last week and easily went over his receiving lines and has only gone up to 13.5 so I’m taking that again.
Bengals should win and cover against a depleted Saints team. Adam Trautman o13.5 rec. yards, 8/1 for him to score at Redzone is generous, 13/2 at PP if you’re more mainstream for your books.
Ravens -6 at Giants: 46
The Ravens come into this one off of 10 days rest after beating the Bengals on TNF while the Giants had a very impressive win against the Packers in London, so like the Packers actually have the shorter, more tiring preparation here.
The Ravens are without Rashod Bateman again so expect a healthy dose of Mark Andrews and Devin Duvernay for the most part. JK Dobbins will be the lead back but it’s probably going to be Lamar Jackson leading the rushing yards on the deck.
The Giants still don’t have many players back to health so you’ve got to imagine it’ll be a whole lot more Saquon Barkley who’s been running well even after leaving last week with injury, he returned to seal the comeback win with a wildcat run into the corner of the endzone. Other than him it’s rough, although I did enjoy seeing Darius Slayton return to the fold with some big receptions last week; 6 for 79 yards is enough for me to take his over this week.
Ravens should win and cover, I’m surprised the line has gone up during the week, I like the under. Darius Slayton o38.5 rec. yards
Patriots +2.5 at Browns: 43
RUN RUN RUN RUN RUN RUN RUN RUN… RUN RUN RUN RUN RUN RUN RUN.
Probably going to be a lot of running from both teams in this one.
Bailey Zappe won the first start of his career last week completing 17 of 21 attempts as the Pats ran all over the Lions. Rhamondre Stevenson taking the full workload after Damien Harris went down with 25 for 161 on the ground. Harris got a practice in but I can’t see him playing here. Meyers went over 100 yards, fair play to him.
The Browns have the best running back in the league in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt isn’t bad either. Amari Cooper and David Njoku are decent enough options in the passing game and Jacoby Brissett has been fine at QB for most of most games, but he just fucks things up at the wrong time and it’s cost them, with him going up against the coach who essentially made him a below-average starter in the league things could be tough for the Browns.
I’m leaning Patriots here (sorry Callum) and I like Rhamondre Stevenson to finally find the endzone, there is Even money on him, but it’s at BetVictor and they’re an atrocious bunch of shitbags, so it’s looking like 5/6 at Skybet is the best available.
Vikings -3 at Dolphins: 45.5
The Vikings are quietly 4-1. Kirk Cousins is playing in the 6 o’clock window on the east coast… that’s wonderful for him. Justin Jefferson is one of the best WRs in the league, Adam Thielen looked good in London, Dalvin Cook and Alex Mattison are a good 1-2 at QB, they have some pass rush now as well, there’s not a whole lot of negatives about the Vikings in fairness. YET THEY RARELY COVER THE SPREAD. 1-4 on the season.
Ironically the Dolphins got hurt by the concussion rules that they forced the league to change last weekend as Teddy Bridgewater was ruled out early on and the game was done. In fairness to them they kept it close until the 4th quarter when shit fell apart.
It means Skylar Thompson is playing this week with Teddy as backup. The injury report is pretty clear for them other than Tua being out again, Xavien Howard, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle all had full practices in the week. Raheem Mostert has definitely taken over at RB with 69% of RB snaps compared to just 15% for Chase Edmonds last week, even Myles Gaskin got more snaps.
The Vikings should win, they’re against a third-string QB and I had this as my best bet on the Full10yards podcast, but I’m doubting the Vikes ability to cover spreads now. Raheem Mostert longest rush o14.5 yards, maybe 1 pt stake on Myles Gaskin at 14/1 anytime at Unibet
Panthers +10 at Rams: 41.5
The Panthers finally got rid of Matt Rhule in the week after they were humped by the 49ers, and they lost Baker Mayfield for a week or two in that game. So PJ Walker gets the start and he’s probably an upgrade, Baker had the SECOND WORST QBR IN THE HISTORY OF THE LEAGUE RECORDING THAT STAT after 5 weeks of the season, quite some achievement.
So PJ Walker playing is surely a boost for DJ Moore, Robbie Anderson and probably Christian McCaffrey. Their defense has been pretty good this year but they got rid of their DC as well.
The Rams have been dogshit so far this year too, the utter lack of any offensive line has destroyed them, and apparently, Cam Akers is missing this game with “personal issues” and supposedly looking for a trade, so Darrell Henderson should get the lions share of the carries. Cooper Kupp will get 11 receptions off 15 targets and probably score twice and no-one else will do anything for the Rams.
Honestly, I’m only leaning to the Panthers here but these have been two of the worst teams in the league so far, the Panthers was expected but the Rams failing to meet expectations by such a margin has been a shock to me.
Cardinals -2.5 at Seahawks: 50.5
This is -1.5 on Skybet, so check for the best line. I know it hit Cardinals -3 earlier in the week as well so there’s been movement on both sides of the betting.
The Cardinals still haven’t scored in the first quarter this year while the Seahawks are 2nd in that stat, interesting… They have been fine in the second half of games though as Kyler Murray gets more freedom to do what he wants to do, and that’s generally finding Marquise Brown who’s 4th in the league in receptions this year, although 71st in average yards per catch… lots of quick outs to him. Outside of Brown it’s mostly Zach Ertz who’s been as reliable as ever as well. They are screwed at RB with Eno Benjamin the only name of note who’s healthy coming into this, the rookie Keontay Ingram the RB2. Probably. 5/1 too short for me to have a shot on him.
The Seahawks have been fun to watch, they can put up points and can’t defend for shit, so it’s been a whole lot of high-scoring matches involving them.
Seems like we were all wrong on Geno Smith who’s been smashing things up for them forming a good connection with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett and they’ve average 34 pts per game over the last 3, the highest in the league. They are without Rashaad Penny for the rest of the year now although rookie Kenneth Walker came in last week and looked good, expect him to get 20 carries here and for the rest of the season.
I think the Cardinals win, but I’m not going near the spread on this one, I do like the over despite the fact that everyone in the world will be on it, neither team has shown they have any defense.
Bills -2.5 at Chiefs: 54
Game of the week, GAME OF THE MONTH, GAME OF THE FUCKING YEAR. Maybe. Hopefully.
The league has kindly made this the only 925 kick-off and while I’m sure the yanks would prefer it to be SNF, over here it’s the perfect time for a re-match of the divisional round last season where the Bills pulled defeat from the jaws of victory to lose in OT, their second consecutive playoff loss at Arrowhead, so it’s safe to say they’ll have this circled as their main game this season. It may well decide the AFC #1 seed and home-field throughout the post-season.
You may be able to guess quite quickly which way I’m leaning here, the Bills are the best team in the league this year, and that’s with a lot of injuries on their defense, a defense which is joint 1st in points given up so far this year (with the 49ers) and that’s without Tred White (Who admittedly I don’t rate that highly but most do) who will return after their bye week.
The offense is purring with Josh Allen playing at an elite level and Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis offering an upgraded “DK and Lockett” type combination. Diggs has been outstanding and Davis’ 3 for 171 and 2 TDs last week shows what he can do, similar to his 4 TDs against the Chiefs in their playoff loss last year. They should have Isaiah McKenzie back for this one, who doesn’t sound like a big add but has been involved a lot in the opening games.
The run game still isn’t really there, but Singletary, Moss and Cook will move the ball if needed and Josh Allen will probably run a lot in such an important game, he averages around 60 vs the Chiefs.
Patrick Mahomes… for me Mahomes is the best in the league, but I’ll admit that Allen is close to that stupidly high ability and standard of play. Mahomes is elevating a comparatively poor passing group this year and winning games for his team. Much like Allen he’s run a lot more frequently in big games so one to look for in rushing props (Thanks to RJ Bell podcast for that one)
They also don’t have much of a run game with Clyde Edwards-Helaire the leading back, only having double-digit carries once this season. In fact only having over 12 touches (rush and receptions) in 1 game this year. It’s a weird dichotomy between “lead rusher” and actual numbers. They have used rookie Isaiah Pacheco a little, and Jerrick McKinnon is getting some work too.
The passing game is still obviously the highlight here, led by Travis Kelce who might be getting on a bit but looks every bit like the best tight end in the league still. He won the game for them last weekend with 4 TDs, making it 7 on the year for him, and he scored in both games they played against the Bills last season. They have been targeting a lot of players in the passing game but my mate Juju Smith-Schuster is the main guy from the WRs, he leads that position group in redzone targets yet has yet to score for this team (almost like he’s shit as a WR1…) MVS is doing OK, and Mecole Hardman is who he is, he’ll have the odd good game but is incredibly frustrating.
We love Jody Fortson but his odds are getting shorter at a best of 8/1, but he does get endzone targets. The guy I’m looking at in this one though, at the price, is rookie Skyy Moore, he’s elusive, but Andy Reid has talked about having plays specifically for him and if there’s ever a game to pull out surprises it’s this one, 17/2 at PP/Betfair the best price around.
This is purely a watching brief for me when it comes to spreads and total, of course, I’m leaning to the over, and I think the Bills get some regular-season revenge. I will be betting on Skyy Moore to score at the price, and I’ll more than likely have some in-plays on it. But let’s just enjoy this one.
Oh yeah, this is the first time in 42 home games that Mahomes has been an underdog. He is 7-0-1 as an Underdog in his career.
Cowboys +6.5 at Eagles: 42
So, I said in pre-season that there was a very good chance of the Eagles getting to their bye week at 6-0… I requested it, at 14/1 on Skybet and I’ve got a HUUUUUGE £5 free bet on that selection, so it’s safe to say I want the Iggles to win this one.
Much like the Chiefs and Bills, this game is stupidly important in not only the NFC East but the NFC as a whole with the Eagles now favourites for that conference. The winner here, well, they don’t seal the division but it will go a long way towards it as the whole division has such an easy schedule this season.
Cooper Rush is unbeaten at QB for the Cowboys, he has thrown 4 TDs in 4 starts, including none last week and averages a 63 QBR as starter. He’s done well, for a backup, but that’s about it. He keeps things simple and that’s a credit to him but this streak is on the back of a fantastic defense.
Ezekiel Elliott is still the main guy at running back despite Tony Pollard looking far more explosive, but maybe that’s due to his lower workload… It’s a tough balance, but as they’re at 4-1 It’s hard to say it’s not working. The passing game is a lot of CeeDee Lamb as it should be, but Noah Brown gets targeted as well due to knowing his QB well through training camps and Michael Gallup is back in the fold after injury.
The defense has been outstanding, led by Micah Parsons who is the DPOY favourite and rightly so, but he may be hampered by a groin injury. DeMarcus Lawrence has been great this year too, and even the secondary has done well with Trevon Diggs not getting beat for huge gains on every other snap. Yet.
The Eagles side of the ball is loaded, and the only thing that may stop them is injuries along the offensive line, that was a worry earlier in the week, but every single starter got in a full practice so it looks like they’ll be good to go on Sunday evening.
Jalen Hurts is running this offense well, mostly through running, his ability to move the ball on the ground is vital and he’s scored in all bar one game this year, with 6 TDs in total. He’s actually only thrown 4, those coming in two games so it’s safe to say it’s not a standard offense.
AJ Brown has proven a good signing alongside Devonta Smith gives them two guys who can catch anything thrown near them, and Dallas Goedert at TE has carried on where he left off last year with a good start to the year. You’d imagine AJ Brown will get the main coverage so it may be a good game for Smith.
The running game is the main feature for the Eagles though with Miles Sanders fitting into the lead role well, something that some of us have wanted for quite some time. Kenneth Gainwell will get a little work but it’s mainly Sanders.
The defensive line is particularly good and they’ve shot their shot by strengthening their secondary, it’s safe to say that’s worked so far this year.
Who’s winning? Well the Cowboys haven’t conceded 20 points in a game this year, but they’ve not faced a good offensive line either. If they can’t get pressure, can the rest of the defense stand up? We’ll find out this weekend I guess. I love the Eagles this year and I think they’ll win this one, I would probably lean to the Cowboys covering the spread though especially now it’s close to 7 points, and over on the total. LET’S GO IGGGGGGLES!
A long one today with having a little longer to do some previews, so well done if you read through all of this, best bets are highlighted for the weekend, let’s have a good one!
TouchdownTips 
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