After getting off to another (predictably) slow start on Thursday, Week 6 ramped up last night with some big clashes at the top of both conferences. Josh Allen and the Bills got revenge against the Chiefs to take sole possession of the number one seed in the AFC and the Philadelphia Eagles held off the Cowboys and remain firm favourites in the NFC.
We once again have the Denver Broncos and Russell Wilson on our screens in prime time tonight. Fortunately Monday Night Football has been considerably better than the Thursday games so far this season but I’m sure the Broncos will do their best to change that tonight.
Denver Broncos +4.5 @ Los Angeles Chargers: 45.5
For the second week in a row, Monday Night Football features two AFC West teams and as with the Raiders last week, its arguably a must win game for the Broncos.
Over the last two years the Broncos and Chargers have split games with the home team winning each of the four matchups and it’s hard to see anything different happening tonight in LA.
I feel like I am writing about Russell Wilson and the Broncos offense every week with this being their third appearance on either MNF or TNF. We got some news after their last game, that humiliating 12-9 loss to the Colts, that Wilson was dealing with a shoulder injury and would be getting an injection to help him play through it. While that doesn’t excuse the poor play from Wilson and the Broncos offense in general it does offer some explanation as to why things have been so bad.
Even with Wilson’s and the Broncos collective struggles, Courtland Sutton is off to a nice start to the season and is comfortably on course for a career high in yards per game (currently 83.4). I do like him to hit his 66.5 line tonight and also for his longest reception to be over 25.5 yards. But as with the game 10 days ago I am taking him to score a touchdown with the odds up to 19/10 in some places (6/4 mostly).
This looks to be a pretty good matchup for the Broncos running backs with the Chargers giving up six yards per carry so far this season. And Melvin Gordon has a pretty solid record against his former team, averaging 57.8 yards in four games at 4.5 ypc. If he can avoid an early fumble he should see enough work to go above his 55.5 yard line but I am wary of Mike Boone taking touches and Latavius Murray is bound to be involved in some form.
Since being blown out by the Jaguars in Week 3 the Chargers have bounced back somewhat beating the Texans and the Browns, although they did try and hand the game to the Browns last week. Justin Herbert has been dealing with that rib injury since Week 2 but has still been producing steady numbers. Herbert is third in the league in passing yards per game at 295 but because he doesn’t have the same numbers on the ground he has been overshadowed somewhat by the likes of Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts so far.
With Keenan Allen out since Week 1 and trending towards missing this game as well, Mike Williams has stepped into the role of Herbert’s primary target. He has proven to be boom or bust though and has been held to 15 yards or under in the Chargers two home games but over 100 in their games on the road. This is not a good matchup for Herbert or his wide receivers with the Broncos allowing under 180 passing yards per game so far and I would lean the under on Herbert’s 266.5 yard passing line and probably all of the receivers lines too.
After an inefficient start to the season, Austin Ekeler has exploded for five total touchdowns in his last two games and over 300 total yards. Most of his lines are a little too high for me to take this week but I like him to have over 13.5 rush attempts which is 10/13 with Bet365.
The Chargers are a fairly obvious and easy pick here given how the Broncos have been playing recently but I am avoiding because they like to shoot themselves in the foot. But I think I will look to take the under which you can get for 46.5 on SkyBet.
Under 46 points, Chargers to Win and an Ekeler touchdown for 11/2 on William Hill looks a good price when it’s a max of around 5/1 as a bet builder elsewhere.
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