For the second time in three years Washington’s NFL team notched up the first win against the final undefeated team in the NFL on Monday night. The Commanders win against the Eagles was certainly more of a surprise than when the Football Team beat the 11-0 Steelers in 2020 and is likely to just be a small blip for the Eagles who are still the favourites for top seed in the NFC. But interestingly, not since 2006 has the final undefeated team in the regular season ended up winning the Super Bowl which may be more of a concern.
Week 11’s Thursday night game is between the number one seed from each conference last season with the 6-3 Titans visiting the 4-6 Packers.
Tennessee Titans +3.5 @ Green Bay Packers: 41.0
The Titans came back from 10-0 down to beat the Broncos last week while the Packers snapped a five game losing streak to overcome the Cowboys in what would almost certainly have been the game of the week were it not for that Vikings Bills game.
The Packers season had been all but written off prior to last week’s result but the Titans just keep steadily ticking along and look set to win the AFC South for the third year in a row.
The Titans just quietly go about their business and continue to win games of football. They have perhaps gone under the radar even more than usual this year thanks to their 0-2 start and with the emergence of some other teams in the AFC.
After missing a couple of games through injury, Ryan Tannehill took his job back from Malik Willis in last week’s win over the Broncos and put in a solid performance. But after trading away AJ Brown in the offseason the Titans passing offense is 31st in the league, only ahead of the Bears. They will be hoping rookie Treylon Burks gets up to speed quickly after his return from IR. He has been pretty disappointing in the five games he has played this season, topping three catches and 50 yards just once. Their other offseason acquisition in the receiving room was veteran Robert Woods who has been even more disappointing, averaging just 2.7 catches for under 30 yards per game. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is the only receiver on the team with multiple TD catches this year and they both came last week.
Fortunately Derrick Henry continues to dominate on the ground to carry the offense, only Saquon Barkley has more rushing yards than Henry this season. This should also be a great matchup for Henry as the Packers allow 140 rushing yards per game at almost five yards per carry. It is tough to take his over though considering it is up at 102.5 yards tonight.
The Packers offense came to life last week in the form of rookie wide receiver Christian Watson who caught four of eight targets for over 100 yards and three touchdowns against what is supposed to be a stingy Cowboys defense. Watson had shown flashes in previous games but a combination of injuries and drops led to his NFL career getting off to a slow start.
Aaron Rodgers has been pretty awful this year but bounced back from his first three interception game since 2017 with his best performance of the season, thanks to those three touchdown passes to Watson. I like Rodgers to throw over 1.5 TD’s tonight (20/21 Bet365) against a weak Titans pass defense.
Watson and veteran receiver Allen Lazard should be on the receiving end regularly and I don’t mind them both to go over on receiving yards (43.5 and 48.5) or to score a touchdown anytime (both around 2/1).
The running game for the Packers has been really inconsistent this year, Aaron Jones has had four games over 100 yards and three under 25. But between them Jones and AJ Dillon accounted for over 200 yards on the ground last week which was a key factor in the win. It’s likely to be tougher going this week though against a Titans team allowing an average of just 85 yards on the ground so far this season. If I was taking a bet on this running back room it would be for Jones to go over 23.5 receiving yards.
This feels like a good matchup for the Titans and were it not for Green Bay’s win at the weekend I would be pretty comfortable backing a Titans win. But I still think there is a good chance that the Titans are able to take advantage of the Packers weakness in stopping the run and force Rodgers and co to play catchup. I would lean under on the total but it’s pretty low at 41.
But if you do agree with the above then you’d think it’s a fair shout Henry scores a touchdown. In which case Titans to win, a Henry TD and under 41 points is up to 6/1 on William Hill.