Week 15; Spiffingly Splendid Sunday

What a Saturday of football we had yesterday! I’ll admit I only managed the first game and a little of the borefest in Cleveland, but it seems like the late game was a brilliant watch as well.

The Vikings set records with their win, the largest deficit overcome to secure victory in NFL history as they came back from 33-0 down, Matt Ryan has surely make more money betting against himself at half times than any other QB ever?! A remarkable comeback from the Vikings to secure the NFC North and a home wildcard spot, and I guess keep pressure up on the Eagles for the #1 seed although they are proving every bit the frauds that Callum Squires believes they are, they’ll surely be one-and-done, although a game hosting the Commanders/Giants/Seahawks (or Lions) might get them through the wildcard round at least.

The Ravens loss to the Browns opens things up for the Bengals to win the AFC North now, the rat-birds haven’t played well for weeks now and it finally came home to roost with even the GOAT of kicking falling to the curse of realising they’re not very good, Justin Tucker missing TWO kicks in a game, for surely the first time ever!? – Or maybe just since January 16th, 2021…either way, it seemed a rare shock. You never want Deshaun Watson to win a game, but a Ravens loss was this Bengals fans preference there.

The late game was remarkably snow-free which fucked my handicap on the game, although I did say Bills win, Dolphins cover… I did also say the Under… Josh Allen threw for over 300, ran for 77 and tossed 4 TDs to nobodies, Quintin Morris, Nyheim Hines and James Cook – Brining home the Cook bros. double if anyone had that (was only 5/1ish) although Dawson Knox had a rare (for this season) decent game as the Bills won with a last-second field goal to secure a play-off spot and basically take the AFC East.

On to Sunday! Another 11 games for us tonight before the dire Monday Night game they’ve got to close out the weekend.

Obviously the usual DraftKings contest is on the go (I annoyingly finished 4th in both of the top 3 paid contests I entered last night…) – Sunday Contest – Top 3 paid


Lions +1 at Jets: 43.5

The early Sky game sees the immensely fun to watch and now successful Detroit Lions taking on the very solid defense and milf-hunting QB of the Jets at the Metlife in an important game in the wild-card race on both sides of the NFL – The Lions are now in with an outside chances of the 7 spot in the NFC while the Jets will be looking for a win to keep up their chase in the AFC and with the Dolphins loss last night might be able to sneak 2nd in the division. A win for the Lions gets them to 40% for the playoffs, for the Jets they’ll tick over 50%.

The Lions have a relative full bill of health as they come into this so, despite the fact it’s going to be played outside, in the cold, where Jared Goff has typically tripped up in his career they should be able to rack up the points here as they have been able to for much of the season, averaging over 30 points per game over the last 5 games as they’ve won 5 of the last 6 now. Goff looks like he’s earning himself the starting spot for next season, and with high picks in the draft they may well still take a QB, but for now at least they’d be sitting behind the Cal. allum.

The run game hasn’t been as dominant recently but they seem to have D’andre Swift back in the mix after months of him getting limited playing time and Jamaal Williams has shown he can get the ball into the endzone in short-yardage situations. They split the snaps evenly last week, Swift of course has more impact in the passing game and should, hopefully get more of the ball in that backfield if he can string a run of games together.

The passing game is where they thrive though with Amon-Ra St. Brown every bit the stud he was at the end of last year, DJ Chark proving himself very important since his return and Jameson Williams scoring with his first ever NFL reception last weekend. Chark has 98 and 94 yards in his two games since coming back from injury and with Sauce Gardner likely on the sun god should get the softer coverage in this one as well. They had 11 players with a target in their win against the Vikings last week so there’s options all over the field for them in the passing game.

Their defense still isn’t very good although has improved slightly with Aiden Hutchinson making a late push for some recognition in the DROY race, they’ll be hoping he’s over the illness which has hit the team this week.

The Jets are starting Zach Wilson again after Mike White was split in half by Matt Milano last week and hasn’t recovered from the injuries suffered as he toughed out their loss to the Bills. That’s not good for the offense, obviously they’ll be hoping he’s learnt something from the last few weeks but we seem to have seen that he doesn’t tend to take responsibility, or learn anything, so I’m not overly confident about their passing attack.

Zonovan “BAM” Knight has flown over his rushing lines in all three of the games he’s played (69,90 and 71 yards) and his line is now up at 65.6 from around 50 the past two weeks… That’s a tougher one to take the over, although he has looked good doing it and found the endzone last week. Michael Carter and Ty Johnson have mixed into the rushing game but there’s only one guy here really.

The passing game is tough to call now, will Zach Wilson acknowledge the existence of Elijah Moore as Mike White did, or will Moore disappear from the box score again? Garrett Wilson has shown up with a better QB recently, will that carry on? Corey Davis is ruled out, so we know he won’t do a whole lot at least… The tight ends have had a little more work in recent weeks too, but will it carry on now that the kid is back in there?

The defense will have a lot of work to do here, Sauce Gardner is more than likely the DROY, he’ll have a busy day against a pass-heavy team, they are probably without Quinnen “bless you” Williams up front which is a big hit for them.

Honestly. I love the Lions here (the Bengals of the NFC) and I’m a little surprised they’re getting a point. I’ll take them to win, cover and the total to go over. #ONEPRIDE – DJ CHARK OVER 36.5 REC. YARDS – 5 POINT STAKE – I am a little shocked it’s so low.

Eagles -8.5 at Bears: 48.5

One that’s not quite as interesting although should be fun is in Chicago as the Eagles look to keep up their run for the 1 seed in the NFC. A win for them here takes them to 90% for the bye-week and they should be able to deal with Justin Fields and not much else.

The Eagles can beat you on the ground, through the air, or just by using their defense, they are a very well balanced team and Jalen Hurts is now the favourite for the MVP award. He has been outstanding and used the weapons they installed around him perfectly.

Miles Sanders is having a career year, Kenny Gainwell and Boston Scott are both scoring when given the chance on the ground as well. AJ Brown and Devonta Smith are a great duo in the passing game and they should have Dallas Goedert back for this one as well as he’s been activated off of IR. Even Quez Watkins gets the odd targets.

The Bears haven’t been terrible in recent weeks, thanks mainly to Justin Fields who has shown he can be a starter in this league with his rushing and passing both on point recently despite the horrible lack of weapons for him. The offensive line which looked so terrible is apparently top 10 according to PFF.

The run game is mainly him as David Montgomery isn’t very good while the passing game is Equanimeous St. Brown and Cole Kmet? Not a whole lot more with Chase Claypool probably out (what a terrible trade) N’Keal Harry had a big reception last week too.

Eagles should win, I’d be leaning to the Bears covering though, and over on the total as Fields keeps things interesting/fun. Eq St. Brown overs?

Steelers +2.5 at Panthers: 37.5

The Steelers are finally going to have a losing season, but they’ll fight hard. They’ve been giving Rudolph and Trubisky snaps in training which isn’t exactly a good sign coming into this one. Trubisky threw away the game for them last week, and Rudolph, despite being a wonderfully topical name at this time of year is utter dogshit at QB.

Najee Harris has been fine in the run game, he scored last week at least. Diontae Johnson looks like he’ll be available, George Pickens is the greatest WR in history, Pat Friermuth is a very good tight end. They’ve got weapons, it’s just whether the horrible QB play will be able to find them.

The Panthers are still in with a half-decent chance of stealing the NFC South from the Buccaneers as they’ve done well with the change of head coach. They hid Sam Darnold last week as their run game was fairly dominant, and D’onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard will likely share snaps this week as well after finishing with 74 yards apiece last weekend. Chuba got the score.

DJ Moore is very good and actually shows it with Darnold at QB, there’s not a whole lot outside of him though, Laviska Shenault has one big carry/reception a game, Terrace Marshall is adequate, Ian Thomas at TE is fine.

Defenses probably on top here, it’s a low total though, with the probably terrible QB play from the Steelers I’ll take the Panthers winning and covering. Over on ‘Muth

Falcons +4 at Saints: 43.5

Both of these teams are somehow still in with a chance of the playoffs as well, the NFC South really is poop.

The Falcons have finally made the move to Desmond Ridder, apparently not injury related but then Mariota had knee surgery and a child, and “left the team” so god knows. Either way, Ridder deserves his chance and the passing attack will surely be better than it has been.

Cordarrelle Patterson, Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley have run well behind a decent run-blocking line but the passing attack hasn’t really had a chance to shine. Drake London, theoretically should do better with Ridder in there, other than that it’s a crap shoot, Olamide Zaccheus I guess the next best there, although the tight ends were getting a lot of the ball, Anthony Firkser and Mycole Pruitt both getting endzone targets.

The Saints are rolling with Andy Dalton who is who he is. He’ll move the ball but can’t get you over the hump. Alvin Kamara hasn’t played well this year, Chris Olave has although his teams record will stop him getting far in the OROY voting. Juaun Johnson had been doing well at TE, probably misses out. Jarvis Landry hasn’t done a whole lot as a Saint, Rasheed Shaheed is a deep shot. There’s names but not much else here.

Saints have got players back on defense, while I do think Ridder improves the Falcons it’s a tough start for him. Saints win and cover.

Chiefs -14.5 at Texans: 48.5

The Cowboys were 17-point faves at home to this Texans team and almost lost, the Chiefs have ticked over 14 points on the road in Texas.

I thought the Chiefs would win easily last week and Patrick Mahomes threw 3 interceptions as the Broncos somehow scored some points. You’d imagine they’ll be a little more conservative here against a markedly worse defense than they face last week. Pacheco probably the play for props here as they may well be run-heavy, he and McKinnon have proven a good 1-2 punch.

Travis Kelce as always the main man in the passing game, Juju, MVS, the usual names for them.

The Texans are missing Dameon Pierce who is done for the year, no Cooks, no Collins, Driskel and Mills sharing snaps at QB? It worked last week but won’t be a surprise this week.

Not much else to say. Chiefs win, I’d have to lean to the Texans getting over 2-TDs on the spread though. Under on total. I don’t mind a little Jeff Driskel to score at I’d imagine double-digits, but I’m not sure if anywhere is listing him.

Cowboys -4 at Jaguars: 48

A little more interesting and pertinent to the conferences here in Jacksonville. The Cowboys have been on fire recently racking up the wins to keep the pressure on the Eagles in the East and the Jaguars are on a little run themselves looking to snatch away the AFC South from the terrible Titans.

They survived a big scare last week so you’d imagine the Cowboys will be a little more focused against potentially better opponents here. Dak Prescott has been playing well, Tony Pollard and Zeke Elliott are a good 1-2 punch on the ground and Lamb, Gallup and Schultz are a good triple option in the passing game as well, Schultz my usual target in props – 44.5 his rec. line now, over 2/1 to score, not too bad.

Add that offense to one of the best defenses in the league led up front my Micah Parsons and it’s a winning formula.

The Jaguars have been up and down for a lot of the year, far better coaching has shown that Trevor Lawrence isn’t bad after all, he’s had some big games recently but also a few duds, I’m STILL not buying in here. Travis Etienne has fallen off a little, but that may be due to the fact they’ve opened up the passing game with Lawrence looking better. The Jones bros. and Christian Kirk have done well, and Evan Engram broke the slate last week with his performance.

I like the Cowboys to take care of business and cover here. Over on the total. I’m not buying the Jags.

Cardinals +1.5 at Broncos: 36.5

Ok, I can fly through a few games here.

Colt McCoy vs. Brett Rypien? Russ Wilson is trying to play for some fucking stupid reason, just sit for the rest of the year mate your team is shite.

I dunno, toss a coin here. Cardinals win? Under on the total as it’s the Broncos.

Patriots +1.5 at Raiders: 45

A loser-goes-home game in Vegas although it’s likely neither reach the playoffs, both are technically in with a chance still.

Rhamondre Stevenson is apparently looking like he’ll play after leaving last weeks game early. That’s big for a Patriots team which relies a lot on the run game. If he doesn’t go, or even if he does in fairness, look for Pierre Strong and Kevin Harris? Although the odds on both for TDs are terrible.

Their passing attack isn’t worrying anyone and there’s discontent with the vanilla play-calling, the tight ends are probably the biggest threat, Hunter Henry has done a little more recently, they look like Jakobi Meyers will play after a week or two off, other than that, not a whole lot in the passing game.

The Raiders are three players, although Waller and Renfrow are both activated from IR to add to their passing attack. Josh Jacobs has been excellent on the ground, he was on the report all week but will play again, Davante Adams has shown he’s a stud, 12 TDs so far leads the league.

Raiders win and cover.

Titans +3 at Chargers: 46.5

A “lock-off” in the Full10Yards betting group with Jack Tuffy on the Titans and me on the Chargers here.

Honestly I can’t believe the Titans are only getting 3 here. I know they can run the ball well, although that’s been debatable in recent weeks and I know the Chargers run defense is horrible. So there’s likely a lot of the ball and yards for Henry, but other than that they’ve got nothing., Treylon Burks doesn’t look like he’s playing so the passing game isn’t a threat.

The Chargers looks a lot better with Mike Williams back, and the Titans defense is a pass-funnel, just what the Chargers want to do, so expect a good day for Herbert, who once again is apparently the best QB to have ever played the game after a half-decent performance on Monday night, a good day for Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler in the passing game, basically, expect the studs to show up.

If the Chargers score 20 they’ll cover the spread. I think they will.

Bengals -3.5 at Buccaneers: 45

Thanks to the Ravens loss yesterday the Bengals are now at the top of the AFC North and will look to carry on their 5-game win streak against the GOAT in Tampa.

It’s been fun watching the Bengals recently, the OL has come together and even with injuries on the offense they’ve been moving the ball well as Burrow looks to extend his streak of covering spreads, something like 17-3 as a starter in his last 20 games, quite remarkable. They lost Boyd and Higgins early on last week, both will play here though, so they’re back to full strength (other than Hayden Hurst) on offense and they’ll be hoping that’s enough for the win here.

The Buccs have been disappointing all year, Brady doesn’t seem to have the connection with Mike Evans which they have had for all his time there, Chris Godwin has done well, Rachaad White and Leonard Fournette haven’t been moving the ball well on the ground either and since DJ Reader returned for the Bengals they’ve had a top 2 run defense. – Defensively the Bucs haven’t been up to their former levels either.

I feel worried and apprehensive thinking the Bengals should win here, but they really should. I just can’t take them to, it’d be typical of Brady to show up against a player compared to him. Bengals SHOULD win and cover.

Giants +4.5 at Commanders: 40.5

An important game in the NFC East as the Commanders and Giants face off for the second time in 3 weeks. The loser here is going to struggle to make the playoffs, the winners, they’re probably in at the bottom for one game at least.

The Giants have no talent in the passing game, and the run game that they relied upon early in the season hasn’t been very good recently with Saquan Barkley looking tired. Daniel Jones isn’t really getting it done in the passing game either, but we saw that they were equal teams two weeks ago. I don’t think much has changed in the meantime.

Taylor Heinecke hasn’t exactly been great, but he’s been getting wins thanks mainly to the run game of Robinson and Gibson who have been running well, and when Heinicke has to throw it somehow works despite it not usually on target, but Terry McLaurin is incredibly good and they somehow managed to move the ball up and down the field.

The Commanders defense does manage to get pressure up front and that could be the key for them here, but I don’t see either team winning by more than six points. So I’ll take the Giants game the points and under on the total.

A little bit rushed once more, stupid Christmas and family time ruining my preview time on Sunday mornings.

#WHODEY

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