Good evening all, it’s been a long shit day for me, so I’ll get through these fairly quickly, well try to, I do tend to ramble and go off on random tangents with things.
First up, we’ve got our Playoff Competition up and on the go – https://touchdowntips.com/2023/01/11/tdtips-playoff-competition-2022/ – It’s £26 entry, top 3 get paid, as of writing there’s 13 in there, the more the better, you can any time over the weekend but obviously you’ll miss out on any games played before you enter.
Secondly. My honest opinion on the playoffs, and eventual Super Bowl?
- 49ers
- Chargers
- Bills
- Giants
- Bengals
- Buccs
then
- Chiefs
- Bengals
- Eagles
- 49ers
and then I’m a little more lost, I do genuinely think the Bengals can beat the Bills though, even in Buffalo.
But we’ll see, not too far off now, the Bengals are the obvious value of the top 3 in the AFC, the Chargers probably second on the value-front.
NFC I think it’s 49ers or Eagles, probably 49ers as they’ve been impressive since trading for McCaffrey, but I’m not convinced Purdy can take them all the way,
DraftKings full weekend slate is of course on the go as well, Full Weekend Slate – I’m weirdly confident on my roster which means it will be terrible – About half full at the moment.
Seahawks +9.5 @ 49ers: 42
The 49ers won both of the matchups in the regular season, with relative ease, the first with Jimmy G, the second with the now starting QB Brock Purdy playing in his first road game, his second career start, on a short week and he looked great.
The 49ers are coming in on the back of 10 wins in a row. The toughest team over that stretch? Dolphins or Chargers? It’s not been the roughest of schedules, but they have dealt with teams very impressively, covering the spread in 8 of the 10, a true sign of a good team.
Possible weather issues in this game with a lot of rain expected in California, although it may stop before the game the field will be slick.
Brock Purdy has thrown at least 2 TDs in each start, he’s got a QBR which would have him 5th in the league, a passer rating of 107.3 which would actually have him above Mahomes at the top of the starters in the playoff (although Tua is also ahead of Mahomes, so pinch of salt required…) – In short he’s been incredibly good in a very easy to run offense with a fantastic coach.
Christian McCaffrey has shown everything you’d expect of him since coming in, both on the ground and through the air, he’s in a well-coached team and he’s loving life, 10 TDs in 11 games since joining them, 746 rushing, 464 through the air, so just over 100 combined yards per game, he’s only topped 100 on the ground once though and the days of 12 receptions a game as he did in Carolina is done. They welcomed back Elijah Mitchell who returned from injury last week to score his first TDs of the season, he’s actually topped McCaffrey in rush yards in the games they’ve played together, and his 39.5 line is very tempting to take the over. It wouldn’t shock me to see Juszczyk score at least one in the playoffs either.
George Kittle has been the big beneficiary with Purday at QB, with 7 TDs in 4 games, but that was without Deebo Samuel who will be playing tonight. Kittle will be involved heavily still but maybe not to the extent he has been. Brandon Aiyuk has been a stud with Deebo missing as well, again you’d expect he’d get a lot of the ball, but with Deebo demanding touches as well it’s safe to assume all players will be reduced a little. I don’t mind the price on Kittle scoring still though, 13/8 at Skybet the best price available now.
49ers defense is probably the best in the league, so no worries there.
The Seahawks scraped into the playoffs beating the Rams in Overtime and on a short week after a tiring, emotional game might be a little lax.
Geno Smith may well win comeback player of the year for helping get his team to the playoffs when many (myself included) were expecting them to go under their win total, and Kenneth Walker topped 1,000 rushing yards in that final game, could be bringing home the OROY award. Geno has been up and down as you’d expect, some silly mistakes (as you’d expect) and 1 TD, 1 INT against the 49ers in their two games isn’t going to win games, he finished the season with his worst QBR of the year against the Rams last week.
Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf will always provide reliable targets for Geno, Lockett is now 59.5, DK at 60.5, Metcalf likely to be shadowed by Charvarius Ward who has done a job against him in both games, so Lockett would be the guy I’d look for if I was going for one of them. Geno also likes the tight ends, Noah Fant and Colby Parkinson getting a few targets in recent weeks, Parkinson scoring a couple of weeks ago.
They did well against a poor Jets team, struggled against a Rams team with nothing to play for and of course the two games vs. this rival this year was pretty uninspiring as well, but they are the first team to play Brock Purdy for the second time, so you’d expect them to be able to do something against him at least, and he has thrown up some possible interception worthy plays which the Seahawks need to take advantage of if they want to have a chance here.
Logically, we should be taking the 49ers to win by margin, they have killed poor teams and this Seahawks team isn’t great, but if the weather is as expected it may be a little closer. I’m leaning to the Seahawks getting the points, and probably under on the total.
I like Eli Mitchell to score – 12/5 the best of the mainstream books at Bet365, his rushing line is 39.5 as well.
Chargers -2.5 @ Jaguars: 47
The Chargers come in as the 5th seed, the Jaguars won a terrible AFC South with 4 wins in their final 5 games including 2 against the Titans with a defensive score securing the division on Saturday night last weekend. They faced each other in the regular season with the Jags ending 38-10 winners with Justin Herbert playing badly injured and Lawrence having his best game of the first half of the season.
Brandon Staley, the Chargers head coach has rightly come in for criticism after playing his starters late into their meaningless game against the Broncos, a game which they still lost, and now they’re without Mike Williams who has a fracture in his back, good work.
Justin Herbert quietly still finished 2nd in the league in passing, 400 yards behind Mahomes, yet it never seemed like they were killing teams. Fair play to him, he’s a very good QB and it will be interesting to see how he copes with his first playoff appearance. He’s actually only thrown more than 2 TDs once in 15 games, and that was 7 games ago, I’d have expected more, although he has been without his first string offense all together for a lot of the year.
With Mike Williams out Keenan Allen may get more targets, although he tends to have better games with the deep threat on the field, Joshua Palmer and Deandre Carter should get more involved with Williams out as they have for a lot of the year and Tight End Gerald Everett gets a lot of redzone targets for this team.
Austin Ekeler is the main man though, he finished with a ridiculous 18 TDs after none in the first 3 games of the season, 13 rushing, 5 receiving, it has been 5 games since he had one through the air though. 4 carries for 5 yards in their game against the Jaguars… He should top his rec. yard total in this one though the Jaguars conceded the second-most receiving yards to RBs this season and he should see a tick in his workload with Williams out. Joshua Kelley isn’t a terrible backup either.
They have a decent defense which looks to stop deep passes and allows a lot on the ground. Joey Bosa got banged up a bit last week too, but should be fine here.
The Jaguars deserved to win the South over the Titans and it was for the good of everyone that they did. Trevor Lawrence looked like an actual NFL QB for most of the backend of the season but he was terrible vs. the Titans last week. I don’t know how to feel about him here, for what it’s worth (not much) he’s never lost on a Saturday through high school and college, and of course last week. He can kill an opponent, but he can also kill his own team with some of his decision making, again a first time playoff competitor, but he has experience in big games unlike Herb, Trev won the college title.
Travis Etienne should have a big game on the ground, they racked up 180+ yards in the regular season game and then cut James Robinson who had a 50+ yard run in that game, Etienne can break off a big one and it wouldn’t shock me to see him do that here. 76.5 his rush line, and 15.5 his rec. line, he’s hit the receiving line in the last 4 games.
Trying to pick the WR in Jags games is tough, all three of Kirk, Zay and Marv Jones scored in the regular season game and they’ve spread scores around for a lot of the season, Kirk was the main target for a lot of the season, Zay Jones was wide open and missed last week and Marv can beat anyone in 50/50s. Evan Engram has had some huge games as well at TE for them, but again, tough to pick his good week.
They’re a fine defense, Josh Allen and Travon Walker will get pressure up front and Foye Oluokun led the league in tackles this year.
I fancy the Chargers to win, but I know a lot of “sharps” are on the Jaguars this week. They’re the home team, they have a day extra rest and match ups work well.
Etienne o15.5 rec. yards, Ekeler o37.5 rec. yards, Everett 3/1 would be my scorer pick at the odds.
Good Luck if you’re following, and whatever you’re on this week. Have a look at the Playoff contest – £26 for 4 weeks of fun is great value!
TouchdownTips 
Leave a Reply