After yesterday looking for some value in the top WR field, i’m turning my attention to top RBs today, and again you’re looking at two very solid at the top of the market for good reason, Adrian Peterson 6/1 and Todd Gurley 8/1. – None of these are officially tips, just ponderences, as there’s still 5 weeks till the season starts and anything could happen between now and then. Although Gurley each way would return 2/1 when he finishes top 3
They are the only real running option in both of their offences, and posted big stats last season Peterson leading the league with 1,485 and Gurley in his rookie season going for 1,102, sandwiched in between them was Doug Martin posting 1,402.
While the Vikings have strengthened their receiver core with LaQuon Treadwell, which should help Bridgewater at QB, they will still be a run first offence, and will still feed Peterson the majority of the time, so his numbers, baring injury should be high this season as well.
Gurley put up over 1100 yards in his rookie year, and should improve on from that, the Rams drafted a new QB as the number one pick of the draft, so it seems likely they’ll rely on the run game to try and insulate him from having to make too many plays that could go wrong.
Finding value here is a bit harder, there are so many RBs by committee with players sharing the load, Doug Martin should again get the bulk of the carries in Tampa, but it seems likely his season was a bit of an anomaly and the muscle hamster (brilliant nickname) may well drop back down to an average level, especially if Mike Evans remembers how to catch a ball again.
Other names at the top of the betting are Zeke Elliott (10/1) at Dallas, he’s been extremely highly touted, and has fallen into the best situation he could behind one of the best O-Lines in football, they took him top 4 which would suggest he’ll be the main guy on the ground there, and he’s considered a 3 down back so should see the majority of snaps, but they do have a couple of decent “backups” who could take carries from him if he fails to live up to expectation
Jamaal Charles is back from injury and he was on for big numbers last season before that injury, but in his place Char West and Spencer Ware proved more than adequate and they may well take some carries from him to try and keep him away from a big workload.
Thomas Rawls is an interesting guy at bigger odds (25/1 Ladbrokes) As I mentioned in the WR writeup, Seattle are typically a run first offence, although when you had Marshawn Lynch you’d be stupid not to, Rawls proved himself more than capable of replacing Lynchs yards when he came into the team last year and was looking very good before a pretty serious ankle injury put him out for the season, 830 yards, at a league high 5.6 per carry.
Second big price option is Latavius Murray (33/1 at PP and BV), he’s behind an ever improving offensive line and had a lot of carries last year, the third highest in the league, and he could well be under pressure from rookies DeAndre Washington, so while he could lose carries, he may also up his game and manage to break through.
And the final outlandish pick is Frank Gore (66/1 at Ladbrokes) my main reason for Gore, who’s an aging running back is workload, there’s just no-one else there, and with Luck and the passing team probably due a bounceback after a pretty poor season, and a strengthened O-Line, games could play out that they can run more often which means Gore will get more action (unless he gets injured) Last season he had the 5th highest attempts of all RBs, at a massive price, could be worth a second look.