Wow, Thursdays night was another step towards football immortality for Bill Bellichick. At the moment i’m starting to think he could take me at Quarterback and still win the game. To stop the Texans scoring a single point, and design plays in 3 days to even get their rookie QB a rushing TD, massive respect has to go out to Bellichick and his team. LeGarrette Blount ensured that we made a little profit on the night too having 5 pts on him getting o19.5 carries, and also scoring 2 TDs, I tipped anytime at just over Evens, and annoyingly posted that I considered 10/1 on 2 or more a little short… ARGH.
Onto this weekends action, the Redskins visit the Giants to kick off the Televised weekend, with my choice for the NFC East sitting pretty at 2-0 despite not really getting going on offence as of yet. The money they spent on their defence in the off season is looking like it was well spent, they are more secure than they have been in a few seasons, and have turned around their fortunes of last year by winning close matches instead of losing them. The offence itself is ticking over, without really impressing, OBJ is yet to get going to the extent that we’ve all come to expect, and will likely be shadowed by Josh Norman this week, which is probably the main reason it’s on TV as they produced an “interesting” side show in the matchup last season, where Beckham should of been thrown out of the game for a late dirty helmet-to-helmet hit on Norman as retaliation for in fairness so dirty actions from Norman (Although is OBJ had made a simple TD catch early on he would of still finished with 150 and 2 TDs). Norman is yet to shadow a no.1 receiver for the match, but expect it to happen here. Which should leave Breeland to shadow the impressive Sterling Shepard who seems to have been enjoying the lack of attention in comparison to his team mate, along with Victor Cruz looking like he’s getting back to form, it’s a formidable triple attack in the WR department. Which is lucky because their running game is still nothing to write home about. Rashad Jennings is apparently the no.1 RB but hasn’t achieved much, and if he can’t do it against this poor Redskins run defence he probably won’t elsewhere.
The Redskins have not done well so far this term. Kirk Cousins is still yet to beat a winning team in his career, and I can’t see it starting here. There’s been reports of some bitching and sniping in the dressing room and his own coach has publicly said he’s not lived up to the money they’re paying him so far. Good motivation? We shall see… It doesn’t help that they don’t seem to be playing to his strengths and appear to be asking him for short passes all the time. If he can get his game together Jamison Crowder will likely be his main target as he’s taken most of the targets in checkdowns over the first 2 weeks, Jordan Reed will continue to try and get the ball, while DeSean Jackson will continue to stretch the field. Pierre Garcon and Josh Doctson will mix in as well in the passing attack, which on paper looks like it could easily match the Giants. Rush-wise, they’ve got Matt Jones who has performed pretty well so far, and Chris Thompson who comes in for passing-back work.
I was originally going to tip u46.5 on the spread, as I think it will finish that way, however with 2 teams with this much attacking talent, it could easily blow up, so i’m giving it a miss for the blog
Sterling Shepard anytime TD – 17/10 – (PaddyPower) – Crowder o3.5 receptions – 20/29
Second up on Sunday night the Steelers travel to Philadelphia to give Carson Wentz his first proper test, and I can’t see him coming out of it with a win. Unfortunately the Steelers are everything I thought they would be pre-season, their defence is solid, and they have 2 or 3 of the best offensive players in the entire league. DeAngelo Williams currently leads running backs in fantasy pts, and he’s essentially a backup for the Lev Bell who serves the final game of his suspension. Antonio Brown was shutdown last week by the Bengals, but that doesn’t happen often and won’t this week, and Big Ben at QB will come out firing as he usually does. Throw in a little of Sammie Coates who made 2 catches for 90odd yards last week and you’ve got a potent offence. Their defence is also vastly improved. In short, they’re a bloody good team and should have far too much for the Eagles.
Wentz has looked very good in his short career so far, however he’s faced two of the worst teams in the game and been put under very little pressure, it will be good to see how he deals with some this week, I think he’ll be ok, however I don’t think this team has the power to hang with the Steelers point scoring. Ryan Matthews should do ok, although the Steelers stuffed the Bengals run game last week. Jordan Matthews and Nelson Agholar will be hoping to actually catch passes this week which would improve their numbers greatly. Trey Burton in at TE looks a decent option for a larger priced TD scorer.
Steelers -3.5pts – 10/11 (5 pts) , DeAngelo Williams anytime 11/10 (PaddyPower)
Last up somehow sees the Bears re-appear on our TV screens against the Cowboys (That’ll be it, they have to be every week) – The Bears are poop. Just… utter dog poop. They’re beginning a rebuilding process, and it’s very painful to watch. Jay Cutler won’t be a part of that, and he’s missed practice all week with an injured thumb which means Brian Hoyer is likely to active at QB. This doesn’t change much, they still only really have Alshon Jeffrey (who has also missed a few practices this week) in the passing game, and their run game is based around Jeremy Langford, who has hardly pulled up many trees. Jordan Howard got mixed in last week and that may continue as they look for the future.
The Cowboys have done ok with Dak Prescott in charge, he is yet to put up a passing TD in the league (he did rush for one) and he’s been keeping it simple, which has meant a lot of touches for Ezekiel Elliott who, also, has done adequately although seems to have a bit of an issue with fumbles, something which led Alfred Morris to steal his TD last weekend. If he sorts that out he should take full hold of the RB position in this team. Passing wise Dez Bryant got a little more of the ball last week, going for o100 yards last week, Jason Witten is continuing to get looks there as well, as is Cole Beasley in the slot. I think this could be a bit of a breakout week for this team against a battered Bears defence.
Elliott anytime – 11/2 (StanJames) 5pts if you can get that price! – I have got this price however they’ve clearly fucked up so i’m not sure it’ll stand. Best price elsewhere is Paddy again at 5/6
Various other bets from around the league –
Tight end trixie (1pt)- Hit the post with it last week, getting 2/3 – Delanie Walker (Ten) 6/4, Eric Ebron (Det) 9/5, Jack Doyle (Ind) 15/8
2 or more trixie (0.5pt) – David Johnson (Ari) 6/1, DeAngelo Williams (Pit) 13/2, Ezekiel Elliott (Dal) 5/1
Kenyan Drake anytime TD – 8/1 (Bet365) – The Dolphins are without Arian Foster and don’t seem to like Jay Ajayi, going up against a poor Browns team. They mixed him into the game last week with 2 carries for 12, but importantly a TD in there. This price is at 13/8 on SkyBet, so get on while you can! (down to 9/4 now so hopefully some got on at 8s)
Week 3 treble – Cardinals -3.5, Steelers – 3.5, Jags, 6/1 – (3 pts)
A few others I want to mention if you want some bigger odds picks, Dwayne Washington (Det) – 5/2 (Ladbrokes), Tyrell Williams (SD) 7/4 (Ladbrokes). I also had a look at Heuerman for the Broncos, with Virgil Green out injured, he’ll be in at TE and Skybet had him at 10/1 compared to a measly 3/1 at Paddypower, I don’t think he’ll score, but interesting to see the difference in price.
Summary – Sticking to 2pts unless suggested
- Shepard anytime – 17/10 (PP)
- Crowder o3.5 receptions – 20/29 (365)
- NAP – Steelers – 3.5 – 10/11 – 5pts
- DeAngelo Williams anytime – 11/10
- Ezekiel Elliott anytime – 11/2 (StanJames) – 5pts
- Tight end trixie – 4pts
- Two or more trixie – 2pts
- Kenyan Drake anytime – 8/1
- Week 3 treble – Cards -3.5, Steelers -3.5, Jags – 6/1 – 3pts
Total outlay – 27pts