Week 4 tips and televised writeup – @FootbawlTips

So, we pretty much broke even on Thursday night with the Bengals scoring every quarter, and really should of win by a considerable margin, they could only convert red zone opportunities into 1 touchdown and 5 field goals, they’ll have to sort that to stay with any half decent team, fortunately Miami aren’t a half decent team and but for a broken coverage 74yd TD, Tannenhill would of barely broken 100 yards on the night. Hill had 2 chances to get in for a TD, but ran into a wall of guys and achieved nothing. Parker was only targeted once as Miami struggled and the downfield ball I thought would be intended for him went to Stills for their only TD of the match.

Sunday sees the start of the international series, as the Jaguars host the Colts at Wembley stadium, a 1430 kick off, which means there will be 12 hours of televised games, so get the beers and snacks in!.

The Colts are what we thought they were, awful on defence, although with a lot of injuries and not bad on offence. I still don’t think Luck is back to what people think he can do, although his offensive line doesn’t help, and he’s missing the injured Dante Moncrief for the second week, which detracts from his options. However he does have TY Hilton out there, and the 2 combined for 174 yards and the game winning touchdown last week against the Chargers and highly rated Jason Verrett who had a bit of a mare. Philip Dorsett was expected to have an upturn in targets, and did to a certain extent, but still only ended with 3. Undercover CIA agent Jack Doyle was the main beneficiary of the extra work, hauling in 6 for 65 yards. And Dwayne Allen was targeted a few times in the end zone, so one to look out for. Frank Gore is in at running back, he always has been, and always will be, he notched up a score last week as well, although Robert Turbin snuck in and stole one too.

The Jaguars were touted by many as having a breakout year, and despite a good performance in the first game of the season against the Packers, they’ve ultimately under achieved massively with a roster that is packed with talented young players. Blake Bortles at QB is a shadow of the man we saw throwing without restraint last season, he’s missed easy passes and threw up a few INTs to kill the game for them last week. This means that Allen Robinson has been the only player of note in the passing game, catching 2 TDs off only 57 yards of play last week. Allen Hurns has done nothing so far (40 yds last week) and Julius Thomas has also been fairly ineffective. Marquis Lee has been getting in on the act and will be interesting to see what his line is set to when it’s available. It doesn’t help that their run game has been virtually non-existent as well, TJ Yeldon tops it with a massive 84 yards in the 3 games so far, Chris Ivory should be in to take the short yard work, but he’s not been fit since an unexplained time in hospital earlier in the season, so nothing there.

This SHOULD be a high scoring match and i’d be tempted to take Both teams to score in every quarter, although the Jaguars probably won’t get a TD with the stat of Bortles only ever throwing for 3 1st qtr TDs in his career.

Colts to score every qtr – 9/4,  Jags to score every quarter – 11/4, BTTS in every quarter 6/1, Allen Robinson and TY Hilton both to score – 3/1 (Skybet Priceboost) Doyle anytime – 9/4 (Ladbrokes)

The 1800 match sees the Raiders travel across to the 3-0 Baltimore Ravens. Despite a well appreciated defence, the Raiders have been shipping points, and arguably should of lost last week against a poor Titans side who messed up at the end of the match while on a drive, their centre giving away a needless personal foul penalty negating a pass to the 4 yard line. Their offence hasn’t done too badly though, they’ve had to score to stay in matches and they have done, Cooper, Crabtree and Carr all putting up good figures. Crabtree seems to be the end zone threat alongside Clive Walford, who had one scrubbed off last week for a penalty. On the ground Latavius Murray is getting 50% or so of the carries, the others are shared out between Deandre Washington and Jalen Richard taking the rest of the carries, with 6 each. Washington looks the best of the two, and possibly three.

The Ravens scraped to a win over the Jags last week, blocking a late FG attempt that would of pretty much sealed it for the Jags, then driving for a long kick themselves which Justin Tucker scored to seal the 19-17 win. It’s what they do, they don’t impress but they find a way to win, and that’s why they’re 3-0. Flacco and Bortles tried to outdo each other in shit QB play for a 5 minute spell last week which was some of the worst you’ll see in pro football. He threw for a meagre 214 yards last week, but rushed in from 7 yards for a TD, his main target was Steve Smith who looked good continuing his return from an ACL injury, he caught 8, while the Tight end Dennis Pitta continued to get looks finishing as the second receiver with 42 from 6 catches. Their run game doesn’t have a focus at the moment, although Terrance West again looked the best of the backs used, averaging 4.5 ypc.

Tribet – any other result – 19/10. Ravens have scored all but one quarter in the first 3 games, this match – 9/4, Mike Wallace and Crabtree – 6/1

Next up at 2125 – The Broncos visit the Bucs in Florida. The Broncos were impressive against the Bengals last week, Cinci set up to stop the run and make Denver pass the ball, Trevor Siemian said yes please, and threw for 4 TDs and 312 yards. A couple of big plays helped those stats, but he showed he’s a capable QB and they’re not just a CJ Anderson based running attack. Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas had asked in the week to be more involved in the game and they were, both making over 100 yards and scoring a TD each, and that good play should continue against a poor Buccs defence who allowed the blunt LA Rams score through the air against them last week. Their defence is still the best in the league, and despite giving up a bunch of yards to Jeremy Hill last week they still rarely get beaten.

The Buccs are a mixed bunch, on offence, they can move the ball well and look great, even without Doug Martin, they played well last week without being able to finish off the game, and eventually lost it. Mike Evans made 132 yards and a TD on the day, and Adam Humphries moved the ball with ease in the slot, Cameron Brate, now the no.1 TE after ASJ was dropped for the DUI, earnt himself 2 TDs and will again be a target, the Broncos weakest defence is usually in the middle of the field where he’ll operate. Charles Sims will be the main back again, and is equally adept rushing or catching, ending last week with over 120 combined yards. Winstons stats have been erratic to say the least, week 1 – 4td, 1int, week 2 – 1td, 4 int, week 3 – 3tds, 1 int, so expect a 3 int week this week?

Although they’re strength is their offence, The Buccs will struggle against a fantastic Denver defence, the points should stay low and I think they Broncos will win by a small margin. Defensive TD at 7/4 seems the way to go in this match. 

The final televised match in the UK this weekend is the Steelers hosting the Chiefs. The Chiefs last week picked Ryan Fitzpatrick 6 times, as well as scoring a DST touchdown returning a fumbled punt return. They’ll struggle to do that away at Heinz field where the Steelers are a different team. With Jamaal Charles still being left on the sidelines Spencer Ware will be the workhorse again against a tough Steelers defence, but he proved the first few weeks he’s happy rushing or catching out of the backfield to drive the team down the field. Charcandrick West is there to a small extent, and that’s about it for their offence. Travis Kelce had his 1 good game in 4 or 5 last week getting himself the only offensive TD they scored. Maclin is averaging about 40 yards per game, and that’s how the chiefs want to play.

The Steelers on the other hand are loaded on offence, and welcome back LeVeon Bell from suspension, they’ve already said he’ll be straight back in as the main back, which means that DeAngelo Williams will play an RB2 role, although Bell has suggested he’d be happy to play in the slot if required, and that could be a way they’ll get both explosive playmakers on the pitch at the same time. Antonio Brown is still doing it all in the passing game, even though they were shocking last week he got 140 of the 257 yards through the air, and that won’t stop no matter who they put against him. Opposite him they have a variety of average receivers who probably won’t do a massive amount. Sammie Coates is a downfield threat, and can make plays if he gets open, the rest are all much of a muchness.

Ware and Antonio brown – 11/4

Various bets from around the other games. I’ve got a long list of about 10 names that I think will do well this week… Alfred Morris (11/4), vulturing TDs from Zeke Elliott, Mike Gillislee, Isaiah Crowell (6/4) (against an awful run defence, Melvin Gordon , they’re playing the saints and he should fill his boots, Spencer Ware, Ted Ginn Jnr (3/1) could be in line for a score, Cole Beasley (receptions) if Dez doesn’t play for the Cowboys, and the Redskins, Jameison Crowder (8/5) will be targetted a lot!

Looks like i’ll have to update this list tomorrow morning as there’s hardly any markets about at the moment, which is very frustrating, they’re usually up by now, targets, yards etc…

Best bet for the day has to be Detroit Lions -3 points vs the Bears. The bears defence has been decimated by injuries, they’re 0-3, have their second string QB in play, and a rookie starting at RB for the first time today. Although Jordan Howard could arguably be an upgrade on Jeremy Langford. The Lions are one of the most entertaining offences in the league so far. Marvin Jones is clearly their no.1 target, and blew up last week for 204 yards and 2 TDs. He should go in again. – 5pts on Detroit -3.5 v the Bears

TE Trixie – Pitta (Bal), Zach Miller (Chi) and Hunter Henry (SD)

Hunter Henry anytime TD – 7/1 (William Hill) – 5 pts! Antonio gates hasn’t practised all week so expect Henry to play in his place. Last week he played all 59 snaps the Chargers had. They’re playing the leagues worst defence this week. The prices is ~6/4 everywhere else. Get on!!!

Summary –

  • Colts to score every qtr – 9/4
  • Jags to score every quarter – 11/4
  • BTTS in every quarter 6/1
  • Allen Robinson and TY Hilton both to score – 3/1 (Skybet Priceboost)
  • Doyle anytime – 9/4 (Ladbrokes)
  • Tribet – any other result – 19/10
  • Ravens have scored all but one quarter in the first 3 games, this match – 9/4
  • Mike Wallace and Crabtree – 6/1
  • Defensive TD in the Denver game – 7/4
  • Detroit -3.5 points – Evens – 5pts – NAP
  • Melvin Gordon anytime – 8/15 – NB – 3pts
  • NAP and NB double – 2.06/1 – 3pts 
  • Ware and Antonio brown – 11/4
  • TE Trixie – 4pts total
  • Hunter Henry anytime – 7/1 (WillHill) – 5pts
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