Week 5 tips and televised write up – @FootbawlTips

Well, Thursday night could of gone a little better, if David Johnson had got his third TD, but I guess i’ll have to settle for 4 of the 5 advised bets coming in! Johnson anytime, 2 or more, Johnson and Hyde scoring and the Cardinals -3 points! That took me nearly back to even on the year after a rough start. Now there’s a bit more data around I am hitting my stride finally and making a bit of money back. As a side note, I also had the Cards to win by 11-15 pts at 8/1 which was nice for me…

The early Sunday TV match sees the Vikings host the Texans, which promises to be a defensive matchup, good for purists, not so much for casual fans. The Vikings go into the match 4-0, and there’s no reason they won’t make it 5 this week, they dealt with the threat of Beckham, Shepard and Cruz easily enough last week, Beckham only putting up 23 yards being covered by Xavier Rhodes who is quickly becoming a key component of the Vikings defence. They should be able to deal with Hopkins and Fuller and get some pressure on Brock Osweiler who has shown little improvement over his Denver form from last season. On the offensive side Sam Bradford has done what he needs to keep the team ticking, unfortunately their no.1 target Stefon Diggs will be missing the game this week, so they’ll probably rely more on the twin run game from McKinnon (main RB) and Assiata (goal line back), without Diggs there, you’ll see a bump for tight end Rudolph (the red zone reindeer) and probably Cordarrelle Patterson, although they spread the ball around to 9 different targets last week, so your guess is as good as mine as to who will see the most.

The Texans came into the year with a gathering hype towards their chances of making a home superbowl, but with the loss of JJ Watt for the season, and a mis-firing offence, that has quietened down, they’re lucky they’re in an awful division as they could probably win it with a losing record if it came to it. As alluded to above, Osweiler just isnt that good, he’s had a lot of short passes, and their shutout v the Patriots showed how to stop him, take away the downfield passes to Hopkins and Fuller, pressure him and he doesn’t make it through his reads very well. Last week saw the worst game of Hopkins career, 1 catch, in the 4th quarter for 4 yards. He’ll get more this week, but not by much. Fuller is their main downfield threat, a speedy rookie, he’s done well this year, already with 4 TDs including an untouched 67 yard return last week, he’s an exciting one to watch for. Lamar Miller has been frustrating so far, I thought he’d have a breakout year, and while he’s done OK, he’s yet to find the endzone, despite averaging over 100 yards rush/rec so far, this probably isn’t the week to see that changing. Need a quick mention to Fiedorowicz and Griffin the tight ends for the Texansm, they combined for 102 yds and a TD last week off 7 catches.

The vikings haven’t allowed 80 yards to single receiver all season, they shut down Beckham, and Kelvin Benjamin, and I can’t see the Texans doing much against this defence, at their very loud new building. NAP – Hopkins u79.5 yards – 10/11 (5pts skybet) Assiata anytime – 13/5 (2pts), 2 or more – 20/1 (1pt both paddypower)

The 2125 match on Sky sees the best offence in the league (by points) take on the best defence in the league at Mile High, the Falcons v the Broncos. The Broncos will be starting this match with rookie Paxton Lynch at QB, earlier than they planned, but Trevor Siemian is out with the injury that saw Lynch come in last week. Annoyingly this won’t affect the team in the slightest, they won the Superbowl last year with the worst QB play in the league, and Lynch did a good job when called upon last week. They use a lot of play action and rolling out, and Lynch is an athletic young kid with a good arm, so will probably improve the team on offence. Which is worrying as Siemian had been hitting his stride and putting up some numbers with Thomas and Sanders in the passing game. CJ Anderson has carried on his form from the start of the season, and is running well. He’s scored 4 in 4 games, his only 0 being against the Bengals who set out to stop the run, and did.

The Falcons come into the game on fire, but this is a completely different test to what they’ve faced so far. Last week, against the Carolina Panthers and their unexperienced corner back grouping, Matt Ryan put up 503 yards at quarterback, 300 of those went to Julio Jones, somehow for only 1 touchdown, in their first 4 matches they’ve notched up 152 points, 38 per game. That’s going to come down today. Devonta Freeman could be in for a big match, so far this season he’s been sharing the workload with Tevin Coleman, but he suffers from a sickle cell trait, which could limit him in the high altitude in Denver, although it remains to be seen what affect it will have. The Broncos only weakness so far has been against the run, so one or both of these guys should put up some numbers. Julio did what people expect of him last week with those numbers, but he’s comes up against a vastly different prospect this week, the Broncos are deadly in defence, Talib an co. will look to shut them down. On the positive side for the Falcons they have spread the ball around well, 9 players catching a pass last week, Sanu, Tamme and Austin Hooper being the most notable 3 behind Julio. Hooper only had 1 last week, and only 5 on the season, but he does have a TD and nearly as many yards as Tamme who has made 16 catches. Denver do typically “struggle” against the tight ends so one of these could get on the scoreboard this week

Hard one to call, and it could possibly be quite high scoring. I’ll take a flyer on Austin Hooper anytime at 10/1 on Skybet (1pt) I think the Broncos will win it, but nothing much else jumps out at me, so i’ll leave it at that.

The final Sunday match should be a hell of a lot more attacking than the first two, the Giants travel to Lambeau to take on the Packers. Both of these teams are lined with offensive talent, and while the Giants defence has been playing well so far this season, but they go up against the supposed best QB in the league, and while they’ve not been blowing teams away so far this season, they should be pumped up coming off a bye week. Jordy Nelson has been looking better and better as the season goes, and his connection with Rodgers is still there, unfortuntely for my fantasy team Randall Cobb has done next to nothing so far, but Devontae Adams has done pretty well, hauling in a few catches and notching a couple of TDs. With Jared Cook out injured, Richard Rodgers steps back in at tight end, he’s got himself a touchdown this year and Aaron Rodgers seems to like him in there. It would help the Packers if Eddie Lacy could figure himself out and get some form back, he’s been running ok so far, but isn’t pulling up any trees so far this season, Starks has mixed in to a small extent as well.

The Giants have been frustrating so far, Eli Manning has been throwing far too many interceptions at key moments, and hasn’t been able to get Beckham into the end zone yet, I get the feeling that will change this week, the Packers will probably put up some numbers, so they giants will have to keep up, and with Sterling Shepard and Victor Cruz alongside Beckham, he has the players to do that if he can sort out his accuracy and decision making. Manning in fact has only thrown 4 TDs (and 4 INTs) in 4 games so far, 2 to Shepard, 1 to Cruz and 1 to Larry Donnell. Their ground game rolled on last week despite a few injuries, with Orleans Darkwa getting into the end zone and Paul Perkins getting himself a long run from a screen pass, he’s got some serious pace there, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him getting more involved this week.

Beckham and Nelson to score – 3/1 (2pts at Skybet) 

Various bets from the other games

Martellus Bennett anytime – 12/5 (3pts Paddypower) 2 or more – 18/1 (1pt at 365) – Someone you may of heard of returns at QB for the Patriots, they got shut out last week for the first time in a decade, they’re going to be annoyed. Gronkowski doesn’t look fully fit, so it all looks like Bennett will get some targets this week, oh and they’re playing the Browns.

Jordan Howard anytime – 11/10 (3pts Bet365) They’re playing the Colts. The Colts are awful, they also have pretty much everyone else injured, so don’t have many options on offence. Zach Miller anytime – 9/4 (2pts Skybet) he’s Hoyers favourite target and has scored 2 in a row with him at QB, would of gone for both of them to score too, but they don’t seem to have these two combined.

The Steelers are at home, which means they’re going to score a lot, even against a tough Jets defence. The Jets have everyone on offence injured. Steelers to score every quarter – 13/8 (2pts bet365) They’ve scored every qtr at home so far this season, I think Sammie Coates will score, but he’s only going to have a couple of catches so can’t be trusted and 12/5 is too short for a pot shot like that.

The Raiders are a place to look for value this week, Latavius Murray is ruled out, which means the chance for DeAndre Washington (currently at around 6 yards per carry) or Jalen Richard to step up, with a little Olawale mixed in as well, the Chargers have also lost their main CB Jason Verrett on IR for the season, so we should see a lot of Raiders scores. They haven’t done well vs the TE so far this term though, Hunter Henry and Crabtree to score – 5/1 (2pt Skybet) deleted as Gates is back for the Chargers unfortunately the bookies realise this and no-one is priced too convincingly, Seth Roberts could be a good shout at 23/10

Anytime scorer Lucky15 (0.5 pt, 7.5 total) – Jordan Howard (CHI, 11/10), CJ Anderson (DEN, 4/5), Steve Smith (BAL, 8/5), Matt Assiata (VIK, 6/4) 

Tight End Trixie (1pt 4 total) – Zach Ertz (PHI 9/5), Jordan Reed (7/5 WAS), Zach Miller (21/10 CHI)

Wendel Smallwood – Eagles – 2pts at 13/2 

Billal Powell – Jets – 2pts at 14/5

Summary

  • Hopkins u79.5 yards – 10/11 (5pts skybet) NAP
  • Assiata anytime – 13/5 (2pts), 2 or more – 20/1 (1pt both paddypower)
  • Austin Hooper anytime – 10/1 (1pt skybet)
  • Beckham and Nelson anytime – 3/1 (2pts skybet)
  • Martellus Bennett anytime – 12/5 (3pts Paddypower) 2 or more – 18/1 (1pt at 365)
  • Jordan Howard anytime – 11/10 (3pts bet365) NB
  • Zach Miller anytime – 9/4 (2pts skybet)
  • Steelers to score every quarter – 13/8 (2pts bet365) 
  • Hunter Henry and Crabtree to score – 5/1 (2pt Skybet)
  • Anytime scorer Lucky15 (0.5 pt, 7.5 total) – Jordan Howard (CHI, 11/10), CJ Anderson (DEN, 4/5), Steve Smith (BAL, 8/5), Matt Assiata (VIK, 6/4) 
  • Tight End Trixie (1pt 4 total) – Zach Ertz (PHI 9/5), Jordan Reed (7/5 WAS), Zach Miller (21/10 CHI)
  • Wendel Smallwood – Eagles – (2pts at 13/2 bet365) 
  • Billal Powell – Jets – (2pts at 14/5 bet365)
  • NAP and NB double (Hopkins u79.5 and Howard anytime – 3/1 (3pts bet365)

Total outlay – 38.5

Good Luck with anything you’re on today folks!

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