Week 5 – Buccaneers at Carolina

Well, what a week for the blog and the tips, after at one point being 70 points down (Yeah, started the year rather badly) I finished yesterday at 33 points up, that’s 100 points profit in just over 7 days. Just like the NFL itself, it’s amazing how quickly things can turn around, while i’m on this up i’m going to ride it as much as I can, harder times will come, it’s just what happens, but when you’re hot you’re hot! Does help that there’s some games to look at, analyse and get my teeth in to, and I’ve been able to find some mis-priced guys to boost profits where they really shouldn’t of been, but that’s what I set out to do when I started doing this blog.

Martellus Bennett made the bulk of my profit yesterday by himself, even with Gronk back and looking like himself again now that his best buddy Brady is off his suspension, Bennett scooped up all of the passing touchdowns, teams just aren’t going to be able to cope with both of them on the field at once. Unfortunately I didn’t go all in on Bennett and go for 3+ as well, which would of probably been around 100/1 but i’ll make do with the 18/1 for 2 or more touchdowns. The NAP on DeAndre Hopkins came in as well, he ended with 56 yards, which was closer than I thought he’d get but still 23 short of the line set by Skybet, doubled that with Jordan Howard scoring at any time, and that could of landed much earlier, he had one cancelled out by a holding penalty before scoring late in the match from a short pass and run. The night could of been even better for returns if I’d of kept the Hunter Henry and Michael Crabtree bet in my tips, but with Gates returning I wasn’t sure how many snaps Henry would get, so thought it was best to cancel it off, shame as it landed at 5/1. Beckham and Jordy Nelson landed over night as well in the late match at 3/1 to finish off the night very nicely indeed.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will go into tonights match as one of the most confusing and frustrating teams in the league, their offence can put up some massive numbers, famous Jameis has been throwing it to all areas for huge yardage, 1108 yards from his 4 games so far this year, 277 per game, yet they go into the match at 1-3. they’ve scored 31, 7, 32 and 7 in their 4 games, the duds coming against Arizona and Denver, both good defences, but they also put up 32 against the Rams who are also a high rated defence. Tonight they’re playing against a secondary which has not been good so far, and got smoked for nearly 50 points last week (admittedly against a Falcons side who are proving to be very good) Mike Evans has been the main recipient of Winston’s targets, he’s averaged 90 yards a game on the season, and should get a good look in tonight as well, Adam Humphries has been proving a good slot receiver and should get a bump tonight as the Buccs are missing their second RB. Doug Martin was already out, and now it seems like Charles Sims will be missing as he’s not practiced all week, that leaves Jacquizz Rodger as the main RB, so you’ve got to think they’ll air it out even more. Especially as their defence seems fairly inept at the moment. Cameron Brate has stepped up over the last few weeks since the team released ASJ and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him do well again.

The Panthers are also coming into the game with 3 losses, and they’re without Cam Newton through a concussion. Their MVP quarterback took a smack to the face last week, fully deserved as he tried to showboat his way into the end zone, and completely missed a 250lb man running at him. You don’t want to see players get injured, but he needed to be put in his place a little there. That means one of the best back ups in the league gets to start, Derek Anderson, he came in last week, and did pretty darn well, his arrival saw an up surge in Greg Olsens targets and yardage, and it seems likely they’ll stay with that tonight as QBs do like their reliable well trusted targets. Kelvin Benjamin should be able to get in against this pretty poor defence, he should be able to dominate physically, Ted Ginn may even get some action down the field. The running game, as much as there is of one, is a bit of a mess, it’s between Cameron Artis-payne and Fozzy Whittaker really, Whittaker has been the more effective in betting terms, he’s used a lot more in the passing game as well as the run so that helps him get yardage and opportunities.

It’s worth looking at a combination of Evans, Olsen and Benjamin to score tonight, I personally like 1 from each team on these bets, and I think 5/1 is very high priced for the top TD scorers on each team so going for that, Olsen and Evans is 7/2, Olsen and Benjamin 100/30. I think this will be a high scoring game, both good offensively and poor on defence, line is set to 46, it should go over that. Adam Humphries yards are set comparatively low on 365 compared to elsewhere, 44.5 yards on there instead of 50.5 elsewhere, also worth noting that Vincent Jacksons yards are 34.5 on skybet, yet 44.5 on 365, he’s on 18, 44, 37, 38 in his last 4 games. I won’t be backing these myself but interesting variation on different sites, and I would prefer Humphries on the overs opposed to Jackson

  • o46 points – 19/20 (WillHill – 4pts)
  • Greg Olsen anytime scorer – 6/4 (PP, WillHill – 2pts)
  • Mike Evans and Kelvin Benjamin both to score – 5/1 (Skybet priceboost – 2pts)
  • Evans and Olsen both to score – 7/2 (Skybet – 2pts)

10pts total outlay

Hopefully my streak will continue, good luck guys

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