TNF – Bears at Packers – 20/10/16 @FootbawlTips

So, David Johnson is for real then, just the 3 tds on Monday night, admittedly against the Jets, who as predicted are awful, makes the Bengals win against them in the first game look less impressive now. But anyway, Johnson is brilliant, annoyingly he got all the scores which let down the request a bet I posted, as needed Palmer to put up some yardage and some pass TDs. We move on…

And on to Thursday night football, the powers that be, for some reason, decided that the Chicago Bears should be on TV seemingly every week, and while this is a divisional matchup, I really can’t bring myself to be enthused by it tonight. The Packers are badly underperforming, and the Bears are in the middle of a rebuild which will take a year or two at the very least.

On the positive side for the Bears, Brian Hoyer has performed well at QB since taking over from Jay Cutler, he’s thrown for o300 yards in his 4 starts, and while that will be a struggle against a half decent defence, he should be able to go close again. His favourite target seems to have been the little known Cameron Meredith, who has seen double digit taregets in the 2 weeks he’s been in the team since Kevin White went on IR, 9 for 130 and 11 for 113 (albeit against the Colts and Jags). Alshon Jeffrey should get a slight boost in targets, he caught 6 in the first half last week, but was held to 1 in the second against Jaelen Ramsey. Eddie Royal is out again leaving it essentially to those two in the passing game, although Tight End Zach Miller will help out in the middle of the field. At RB Jordan Howard had looked impressive during his first couple of weeks, but his efficiency dropped markedly in the last game, with Ka’Deem Carey looking the more effective runner. While Howard will still start as the no.1, and adds a little in the passing game, Carey shouldn’t be ignored.

A lot of people expected the Packers to be back to their 2014 form with the return of Jordy Nelson, whos absence was blamed by many as the reason they didn’t perform to expectations last year, despite making the playoffs. However it’s looking like there could be deeper issues there for Green Bay as they don’t seem to be clicking as an offence, maybe we’re just expecting too much from a changed team, and players returning from injuries, but Aaron Rodgers just doesn’t look himself. He had ample time to make throws in the Giants game a few weeks back, but couldn’t pick out any players, whether that was his fault or his receivers, remains to be seen. Add to that the fact they have no running backs, Lacy is out this week, and probably one or two more, James Starks is out for a month, so they brought in Knile Davis, 4th choice at KC. He won’t be anywhere near ready to go this week, after practising for a couple of days with the scouting squad, they did promote Don Jackson from the practise squad, so he may do something, but… It’s believed that Ty Montgomery will be playing as a de facto RB, catching out of the backfield. Think the Patriots when Lewis and Blount were out last year, but probably not as successful. This should mean a big surge in attempted by Rodgers as he’ll be checking down a lot and making short quick passes, which in turn should lead to catches for Montgomery and Cobb in the slot. Jordy Nelson is still having a decent season returning from his injury, and has 5 TDs to his name so far this season. Devantae Adams has been vulturing TDs to an annoying extent (me being a cobb fantasy owner) but that won’t happen this week as he’s out with concussion. The downfield threat could be Jeff…. Janis…. a man who isn’t quite considered trustworthy, but has pace, and will stretch the field given the chance.

Finding it tough to be confident with anything for tonight, so only a couple for me, at short odds, 2 pts each.

  • Cameron Meredith catches – o5.5 – 20/23
  • Rodgers pass attempts o36.5 – 20/27 OR completions – 022.5 – 10/13 both should be fine…

As i’m struggling with anything, I did have a tiny pot shot at a player to score 2 or more at 50/1 he’s now down to 30/1… however it is extremely unlikely to land! (and as such won’t be mentioned)

There are actually quite a few players at big anytime odds who could get some action, 9 different players caught balls for the Packers last week, but if you manage to pick the one completely random guy who manages to score then well done you!

If you expect the Packers to get a decent sized lead by half time, which is perfectly acceptable, then there’s fairly good odds on second half winning margins, Bears 1-6 is 9/2 and 7-12pts is 11/2. McCarthy and the Packers do seem to love making things interesting towards the end by sitting back and doing sod all

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