What’s up everybody how’s everyone doing?! Right so this is my first time on the website so forgive me if anything is missing or looks crappy. I will figure this website out as I go along so by the end of the season it will be as glorious as Tom Brady’s face. Ok maybe not but hopefully it looks good now.
Week 7 is upon us. Already we have seen the Packers show us that there is hope that they will resemble a competent NFL offense. Most outrageous stat of the game for me; three, yes three, players recording 10 or more catches from Aaron Rodgers. The Packers killed it on third down AND almost killed Brian Hoyer. Taking him out pretty much shut out any hope of the Bears making a game of it.
Adam will cover the televised games on BBC and Sky and the rest are below.
Cleveland @ Cincinnati
Will the real Jeremy Hill please stand up? No, seriously. Where the hell is he? 3.6 yards a carry and providing virtually nothing on the ground. I have him in one fantasy league and even with a match up against the Browns, I just can’t bring myself to put him in. One mainstay for the Bengals is of course AJ Green. Important stat here, AJ Green has been held under 100 yards in all four of the Bengals losses. Joe Haden is nursing a groin injury so AJ should get open and often. Andy Dalton has actually played well ranking 6th and 5th in passing yards and completion percentage but their lack of running game has badly hurt them. The Browns continue to hurt their ferociously loyal fan base but again I do see promise and they will improve week after week. Cody Kessler looks comfortable and has an impressive 84 passer rating which isn’t too shabby for a 3rd round QB who really wasn’t expected to play. Clevelands lack of pass rush I think will affect their ability to control the time of possession and having to play from behind. The Bengals D should be able to cash in on their mistakes.
Winner – Cincinnati
Washington @ Detroit.
Both teams are fresh off wins and playing well. Washington are on a 4 game win streak and Detroit have won 2 in a row themselves. Detroit has no run game thanks to injuries and Washington finally seems to have found some success in that area with Matt Jones and company. Kirk Cousins and Stafford are both virtual locks in fantasy land. The keys will be if the Lions can stop the Redskins run game, they force Cousins to do way more than he should be allowed to. Interestingly the Lions have only allowed 1 running touchdown all year. Stafford will almost definitely have to throw more than he should but he has been nothing but superb this year so he should carry on as he is. Defense will be key as Detroit converts 46% of it’s third downs so for Washington keeping that offense off the field is crucial. I’m torn with this game but I think Washington’s run game will limit Stafford and his wide receivers.
Winner – Redskins
Oakland @ Jacksonville.
Now I picked Oakland to win last week and they didn’t. Granted the conditions weren’t great but it wasn’t like they were beaten thanks to their weak secondary, they got pounded on the ground by Spencer Ware. Heading in to this week they allow 444 yards a game and they look strikingly similar to how the Jaguars were last year. All offense and zero defense. Derek Carr was playing great up until last week and his two favourite targets, Cooper and Crabtree have combined for the most targets (108) and receiving yards (950) for a receiving duo. Despite a lack of legitimate running options, the Raider offensive line have protected their QB allowing the fewest QB hits and sacks in the league. On the other side, the Jaguars continue to take steps backwards from last year and the offensive firepower just isn’t there. Blake Bortles and his turnovers are though. You can make up for turnovers if you are throwing multiple touchdowns each week it just hasn’t worked this year. Rookie Jaelen Ramsey looks like the bookend corner each team covets helping the Jags allow a third best pass yards per attempt of 6.2 trailing only the Vikings and the Cardinals. I don’t see Allan Robinson or Allen Hurns being contained this week so I like the Jags chances at home despite their lack of run game.
Winner – Jacksonville
New Orleans @ Kansas City
Hands up if you have heard that New Orleans are a much worse team away than they are at home? Hands up if you have seen how different Drew Brees’ stats are away from the Superdome? Everything you have heard is true! Arrowhead Stadium is one of the loudest places in the league and they visit a Chiefs team who must be feeling good about themselves. They beat division rivals Oakland last week and suddenly find themselves with a very good offense literally littered with weapons. Charles is back, albeit with his training wheels on so Spencer Ware should still get the bulk of the touches. Outside, the WR’s are FAST so it will be fascinating to see what Andy Reid comes up with. The Saints operate a pick your poison attack so choosing their players in a fantasy league is downright unfair. CB Marcus Peters has more interceptions (13) since 2015 than the whole Saints defense (11). So we know the Saints D is bad, historically bad, and we know Drew Brees’ magic doesn’t work as well away from home. It will be close but the Chiefs should hold out.
Winner – Kansas City
Baltimore @ New York Jets
I think it is safe to say that Ryan Fitzpatrick has proved his bosses right this year. Completely melting down after playing out of his skin for most of last year. However, he is a career journeyman so he will never really be more than he is. That being said, the Jets failings this year have been on the defensive side of the ball, primarily the secondary allowing opposing QB’s to complete 71% of their passes. Baltimore have some speed there even with the loss of Steve Smith but Joe Flacco is nursing a bad shoulder. This will almost definitely affect their run game and Terrance West. If Flacco can keep the Jets D honest, then West should have another 100 yard game. If he can’t, Jets load the box and it gets ugly. Matt Forte looks like a 30+ year old tailback and I don’t think Geno Smith will add much more than Fitzpatrick. This could be the worst game of the week but I think Baltimore does just enough to win away from home.
Winner – Baltimore
Minnesota @ Philadelphia
GAME OF THE WEEK! Well, maybe not for the casual fan as there won’t be many points to go around. This pits defense against defense and I cannot wait. Sam Bradford and Carson Wentz have played way beyond expectations this year but this game will not be one they will want to remember. From a fantasy standpoint (and real life standpoint) the Vikings are the best D in the league. The Eagles, are right up there and scored the most fantasy points last week, in a loss! Both teams are scoring north of 20 points a game and allowing much less on the other side. If the Vikings can get a run game going then I think they have a shot away from home. The Eagles D has stalled somewhat from it’s dominant start of the season but the scheme and the players are the same so this will be battle from the start. Expect one or two big plays being the difference in this one and whoever wins the turnover battle. Despite my love for Carson Wentz, I think Sam Bradford’s experience keeps him out of trouble and Minnesota rolling.
Winner – Minnesota
Indianapolis @ Tennessee
Marcus Mariota has been on a hot streak these past two weeks and I don’t think anyone expects this to change against the Colts. Only beaten by New Orleans own defensive ineptness, the Colts allow 29 points a game (5th most) and have been generally terrible. Not to be overshadowed, the Colts offense has been a disappointment and STILL fail to keep Andrew Luck upright allowing the most the sacks in the NFL. I think at one point in the London game they had 3 rookies starting on the O-line. I don’t care who you have a QB you are not going to play well. I do feel for Andrew Luck but his connection with TY Hilton is as strong as ever and has the tied most targets this year. Tennessee has recorded the 5th most sacks this year and their overall defense has been surprisingly good. Delanie Walker is well overdue a 100 yard, multiple touchdown game so I believe Mariota will dominate and the resurgent DeMarco Murray will wear the Colts down.
Winner – Tennessee
San Diego @ Atlanta
This will (okay – SHOULD) be the exact opposite of the Eagles and Vikings game. Expect points and yards and lots of them. Atlanta as we know are flying, no pun intended and no matter who Phillip Rivers has to throw to, the guy still produces. He puts the ball where it needs to be as San Diego pass catches have just 5 drops this season tied with the Bucs for the fewest in the league. Great fantasy game here so if you have any skills players on these teams, get them in. Freeman, Coleman, Jones, Sanu, hell even Tyrell Williams! Hopefully 2nd year breakout star Melvin Gordon will plow a few scores in to keep this interesting but given how well Atlanta played against the top 2 defenses in the league, I don’t think the Falcons will drop this one.
Winner – Atlanta
Tampa Bay @ San Francisco
At the start of the year, San Francisco were given the toughest schedule of any team. This alone made me skeptical of any real success this year ler along leading with Blaine ‘Check Down’ Gabbert leading the team. However, this game will be one where I know the Niners can win. Granted I was hoping that Navarro Bowman would be playing and we weren’t the worst rush defense in the league but without Doug Martin, I don’t see the Bucs being that big a threat away from home. The Niners pass defense is 7th in the league but I’ll be honest and say that is misleading given how little teams have to pass. Colin Kaepernick is back and in a system where he should thrive and I do see him getting better each week. Torey Smith is already seeing the benefits so he should get another deep score this week. I predict scores in the +20’s for both teams and San Francisco probably getting it’s last win of the season. So I’m going to enjoy it!
Winner – San Francisco.
Hope you enjoy this week, there are some great match ups so if you have any thoughts or want to discus, hit me up on twitter!
TouchdownTips 