So, hopefully you’ve noticed I’ve changed my twitter handle, and we’ve got a fancy new, proper real life .com URL, much tidier than the previous, and should make it easier for people to find us on http://www.touchdowntips.com, other than that, nothing much has changed, if you’ve been following from the start you’ll know what my mantra is, I’ll try not to post too many short bets, anyone can find them, although will be a few to keep the bank moving, but I’ll try and look for higher priced things that I think are mis-priced (best so far being Hunter Henry anytime at 7/1 when most places had him at 5/2 or less) or yardages that I feel are badly matched (Aaron Rodgers on TNF this week for example…) I won’t win every week, but when I do, it’s usually a decent profit (18/1 on Martellus Bennett 2 or more a couple of weeks back) If there’s any that need immediate attention i’ll post them on twitter, so turn on notifications on my profile (the star in the top right corner) and it’ll let you know when I post something, I use it for a couple of other guys, for horse racing, football, and inplay bets, and it’s a godsend! So far, on the year, we’re a touch under 10 points in profit (on a 100 pt start, excluding the season longs) so near enough 10% at the moment of writing this. Not bad after the shocker I had to start the season, I thought it might be that way with no real evidence to go on.
I have recently brought on board Jay, an NFL fanatic who will be doing some write ups for me. I’ll be keeping to the televised matches, and concentrating on the betting aspect, while he’ll be doing a general write up for any matches that aren’t broadcast, I’ll continue to provide bets on other matches after my televised write ups. Andy B will continue to provide some outrageous trebles on a weekly basis, once one of those lands we’ll be sorted for the year!
As seems to be the style, i’ll give a quick little update on the season long bets, and how they’re going so far…
Lets start with what’s looking good… Top TD scorer David Johnson, what can I say that hasn’t been said already, partly be myself, I love watching the guy, he’s a top 3 back, and the team has started to rely more and more on him since teams have started shutting down Arizonas long passing game, he’s currently top with 8 from 6 games, and with his workload, if anything, increasing, I see no reason why he won’t stay there! Advising 7pts ew at 11/1 is looking rather tasty! As long as he stays fit this should go very close
Unfortunately the other few I tipped aren’t looking quite as healthy, Jeremy Hill has struggled, the Bengals can’t establish the run, when he does get going, he hasn’t been THAT bad, but the Oline has been so lousy that hasn’t happened much, also until Eifert gets back teams know to stack the box on goal line carries which has prevented much happening. CJ Anderson started well with 2 in the first match, he’s gradually declined since then, again teams stacked the box and made Denver throw, which they have done well so it’s decreased his work load significantly. Doug Baldwin hasn’t had much either, Russell Wilson has been playing through injury which has affected his trademark mobility and led to less for all on offence through the air
Offensive Rookie of the Year – Unfortunately for us, the emergence of Dak Prescott has meant that there’s a small element of competition for Ezekiel Elliott 5pts at 6/4 who otherwise, and barring injury would have this wrapped up already, he’s been immense, breaking rushing records for rookies in the first 6 weeks of the season, and he’s got better as he’s gone along. He’s the leading rusher in the league, averaging 117 ypg, and landing 5 TDs so far. There’s only one challenger, and we can all hope he gets dropped for the imminent return of Tony Romo soon! Corey Coleman was looking good after a few weeks, he had a monster game vs the Ravens in week 2, with 2 TDs and 104 yards, then broke his hand in training and has missed the last month, putting pay to any minute chance he had for this award. Laremy Tunsil was always a long shot, hence the small stake and his 150/1 price, he’s actually played pretty well, but wasn’t really going to compete with Zeke for the prize.
Leading passing yards we went for Drew Brees, he’s always up there, and this year is no exception, at the time of writing this, he’s 4th, however, they have had their bye week, and his yards per game is the top in the league, so essentially… He’s top at the moment. 5pts at 6/1 is nothing to be sniffed at. Our EW pick was Blake Bortles… the less said about that the better. Currently 23rd in the league, and not looking like he’ll improve anytime soon, they seem to have told him to be conservative and not risk it… not good for us.
Recieving yards is where it starts to get a bit dicey, Antonio Brown was our win pick, and he’d been plodding along with solid, if not impressive numbers for the first few weeks, now however, Big Ben is looking like he’ll have some time out, that’s not good at all for our pick and the drop off between Ben and Landry Jones is like going from a Ferrari to a Metro. Brown has never caught a TD from anyone other than Roethlisberger, and while it’s not a TD bet, they’re obviously a good sign of yardage. Our EW pick 2pts ew at 16/1 however was AJ Green and as predicted, he’s all the Bengals have got in the passing game, he’s put up some big numbers in Bengals losses, and will look to get a lot this week vs the Browns, the Bengals have had a tough schedule to start the season, but our man sits 3rd so far with 101 ypg, quite a way off Julio at the top (he did have a 300yd game which helped) but looking good for at least a top 5 so far. Actually only 50 yards behind. And second place is Greg Olsen who has zero chance of staying there.
Top Rusher is where our good selections so far fall off a little. Todd Gurley has been stymied so far by teams filling the box and not allowing the Rams to create any gaps, as a result they’ve been forced to go through the air, which alarmingly they’ve done quite well. In theory if they get better there, it should help the ground game, so there’s still a tiny dim shaded light in the corner, but it’s highly unlikely now. Our bigger odds option here was Devonta Freeman, 2pts EW at 40/1, he’s doing considerably better, in a frankly outstanding (so far) Atlanta offence, even sharing the workload with Tevin Coleman (would be a real shame if he went down and left Freeman there alone…) he’s 6th in the league with 450 yards, joint third in yards per carry (5.0), but down in 6th in total yardage due to the aforementioned backfield committee. And unfortunately that’s a mile off Zeke and his 703 yards so far. Only around 100 yards off of third place which would still offer a tasty EW return.
Andys matchup bets aren’t looking too far off either. Cardinals and Steelers having an equal amount of wins looks plausible, currently 3-3 and 4-2 (Big ben out for a week at least) Browns and 49ers with an equal record, again, plausible, niners will struggle to add to their 1 win, and the Browns have been playing some spirited ball in defeat so far. They’re both at 5/1, and we’ve got 5 pts on each. The last selection doesn’t look quite as rosy as the Broncos have performed beyond our expectations, while the Colts stink. Their O Line stinks, their defence stinks.
So overall we’re looking at a tidy little profit on the season long bets from Andy and myself, after 6 weeks anyway…