Week 7 televised write up and tips – @TouchdownTips

Hopefully you saw the Twickenham write up that I put up last night, if not tips below…

  • Giants by 7-12pts – 9/2 (skybet)
  • Giants win, Beckham anytime, o36.5pts – 3/1 (hate to tip this as it’s apparently a FootyAccums special, however, it seems pretty good, although pretty short odds)(skybet)
  • Beckham 2 or more – 15/2 (365)
  • Kenny Britt o53.5 rec yards – 10/11 (skybet)

You should also have noticed by now that Jay has been doing a more fantasy based write up for the rest of the matches for the week, while I touch on them if there’s a bet I feel worthwhile, he’ll give you a little more information. – https://touchdowntips.com/2016/10/21/week-7-preview/

The Sky matches for tonight start with The Buffalo Bills travelling down south to take on the Miami Dolphins in an AFC East extravaganza-fest. Which is good for me as i’m paying quite close attention to this match myself and the role the Mike Gillislee is going to play in it. After LeSean ‘Shady’ McCoy left practise in the week with a hamstring injury, I moved quickly and picked up Iron Mike in all my fantasy leagues. This is a run first offence, which is why Shady has been so darn good this season, the team as a whole ran all over the 49ers last week (which admittedly isn’t difficult) for 303 yards on the ground, and 4 TDs, 3 for Shady as no.1 RB and 1 for Gillislee while Shady was off for what looked like a serious knee injury. Gillislee has averaged 5 yards a carry in his short career, and last week went for 60yds from 6 attempts, a long of 44. They face the Dolphins who are a bottom 5 team for rushing ypc, so whoever is in should smash them to bits tonight. It’s been reported that McCoy will be active on a limited snap count. I’m hoping that limit will be 1. But seems it’ll be around 25% of the plays. They may as well just let him sit out. The Bills are run first because frankly, they have nothing else. Charles Clay at TE was their leading catcher last week with 5/52 he shared that spot with Robert Woods, who is doubtful (usually means out) so that role should increase despite injury concerns of his own. The starting WRs are likely to be Justin Hunter and Marquise Goodwin. Good luck figuring out who’s going to play well there. Goodwin will likely be the “downfield threat” as much as there is on. Tyrod Taylor is a very mobile QB and will have designed run plays himself as well as being an adept scrambler. He could sneak himself in for a TD. On defence they’ve had a couple of injuries themselves and will likely give up a big play or two during the game through defensive mix-ups in the secondary.

The Dolphins themselves have finally been looking to establish the running game in recent weeks, and could possibly have settled on Jay Ajayi being their main runner. He went off last week, becoming the first RB of the season to get o200 yards in a match vs the Steelers (a usually solid run defence) However the return of Arian Foster could lead to diminished touches for Ajayi. It shouldn’t as he’s the hot hand, but NFL coaches are weird like that, although Ajayi does seem likely to start as the lead back. He did this running behind their first choice Offensive line for the first time this season, including Laremy Tunsil who many thought would be the no.1 draft pick this year. In the passing game Jarvis Landry will probably catch his usual 10 or so from short targets and try to turn them into something big. The big downfield threat is Devante Parker who is overdue a TD, he should of had one last week, but couldn’t hold on to one in the end zone. With the Bills propensity to give up a big play, he could be a good look for an anytime scorer. Kenny Stills has a TD to his name, broken coverage by the Bengals secondary, but isn’t reliable, it wouldn’t be a huge shock to see him do something. Their two best known tight ends will be absent this week meaning an under the radar look at Marqueis Gray, he did well coming in last week with 3 for 81yds. Unfortunately the bookies have already picked up on this and he’s not anywhere near as big priced as i’d hoped, 9/2 being the biggest around. Haven’t mentioned Ryan Tannenhill at QB. He’s not very good.

Mike Gillislee anytime – 13/10 (365) – Devante Parker and Jay Ajayi both to score – 17/2 (Skybet) 

Next up is the Steelers v the Partiots, this could of been a big test for the Pats, but as always they’ve managed to avoid any kind of big challenge with Ben Roethlisberger being ruled out for the next month or so. This leaves Landry Jones at QB for the Steelers, and that’s a gigantic difference, touted by many as the biggest fall off in class in the league. Which is just a huge, massive, goshdarn shame. Their star wideout, Antonio Brown, best in the league, has never caught a TD from anyone other than Big Ben, and was relatively useless when Jones was in last year (I say relatively as he was still better than most in the league would of been) however, it’s a massive hit for the Steelers. Damn shame. Sammie Coates had become a relevant player feeding on long balls and putting up some good numbers, he has stitches in his hand, but played through them last week. One player who should benefit from this will be Leveon Bell, rated by many as the best RB in the league (I still prefer David Johnson personally) but he’s likely to get an increase in both rush attempts and passing as Jones looks to checkdown and throw the short one. He has the ability to do practically whatever he wants, but faces a mean Patriots defence, and coach Bellichek who works all week to shutdown a teams best attacking option.

The Patriots actually faced a challenge for the first half of last week, the Bengals put some good pressure on Brady meaning he had to throw on the run a lot, and managed to hold them to just 10 points in the first half. However that all changed in the second, they regrouped at half time and came out guns blazing in the second scoring TDs on 3 consecutive drives. This was the team we were all expecting. Brady ended the game with 3TDs, 376 yards and 29 from 35 attempts. 1 of those TDs and a lot of those yards were from Rob Gronkowski who showed why he’s the best TE in the league, he finished with 162 yards, and pretty much single handedly took the game from the Bengals. Their 2 tight end sets proving as hard to matchup to as everyone thought they would be with Martellus Bennett on the other end. James White was the recipient of 2 passing TDs from the backfield, and Brady will probably look to him again, as the Steelers don’t do well vs catching RBs. LaGarrette Blount got his customary TD… He’s scored in EVERY game Brady has played this season…all 2 of them. Chris Hogan will be their downfield threat, but can’t be trusted with any of your hard earned cash, he may score, he may not.

The Patriots are generally 7 point favourites, and that’s about right. They should kill this Steelers team, and I really hope they do…Just the couple for me.

James White anytime – 12/5, 2 or more – 16/1 (L15) – PP has him at 17/1 but as it’ll be in my Lucky15 I’ve got to use 365) – Blount anytime – 11/10 (PaddyPower)

The 130am match, is one i’d love to be awake for, the Seahawks vs the Cardinals, a divisional match up which should prove to be an absolute cracker. The Seahawks seem to have the Cardinals number when they play against each other, and I don’t think that will change tonight. They haven’t fired on all cylinders on offence yet, while Wilson is still in there making plays, he’s not looked as mobile as he usually is, and as a result they’ve struggled to get anything going in there. He did throw for 270 yards last week, but didn’t find anyone in the end zone. Jimmy Graham was his favoured target, 6 for 89yards, and he seems to have returned to what he was when he joined them before his major injury. Good for him, bad for Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett who have seen a regression in their play, catching 4 and 3 respectively last week. The RBs scored all the TDs last week, Christine Michael carrying on his form with 2 of them, and Alex Collins stealing one with his only rush from 2 yards out. They’ll likely keep mostly to the ground against a good Cardinals secondary, but if the Cards get it together on offence, it could be a high scoring match requiring more in the air.

As I stated before, I believe David Johnson is the best RB in the league, the guy is amazing, and he and the evergreen Larry Fitzgerald have carried the team this season. He is the leading TD scorer in the league, and 3rd in rushing yards, as well as putting up a lot catching from the backfield, it’s safe to say they use him a lot. And rightly so as teams have been effectively shutting down their long passing game, they’ve adapted, and it’s been to Johnsons great benefit. That’s the reason for the increase in Fitz’ game this season as well, he plays in the slot, and has seen a big increase in targets. The long game being shut down has partly been due to Carson Palmers inaccuracy and seeming lack of confidence since their big playoff loss last season, and a thumb injury earlier this. John Brown doens’t seem to have been fit this year, and he misses tonight with a leg injury, Jarron Brown is also out, although was a bit part player anyway. Michael Floyd has been a disappointment for the Cards, but hopefully for them his score last week will give him some confidence and he can build on it.

I can’t see past the running game in this matchup, and if you’re up at 130 for it, then well done you, you should be in for a cracker.

Johnson anytime – 19/20 (365) – Johnson and Michael – 5/2 (Skybet) Michael 2 or more 10/1 (L15)

Assorted others from around the league –

So, 2 or more lucky 15 0.5pt per selection (7.5 total) – I originally had Gillislee in assuming that Shady would miss completely, he may still do that, but i’ll swap him out for Spencer Ware vs the Saints – Ware (KC) Beckham (NYG) White (PATS) Michael (SEA) – returns around 10k 😐

My NAP for the week has to be Jacquizz Rodgers o63.5 rushing yards (Skybet) at 10/11 – Coming off the bye week fully rested, he’s practically all they’ve got in the backfield, he went for 113 in his last match, and this week faces the worst run D in the league who conceded 303 yards last week on the ground, the Buccs have also played more offensive snaps than any other team this season, and with Chip Kelly keen to implement an up tempo offence as well, he’ll get a lot of touches. This line should be around 100 so i’m more than happy to lump on at 64- 5 pts

AJ Green should score vs the Browns, and anywhere near evens is generous, he’ll be my NB (next best) at 19/20. Haden is out for the Browns, he’s been their best defensive player, so Green should get… The.. Rub… of the ….. Green……

Terrance West could be in for a big day vs the Jets, their awful, their defence used to be a strength, but has not performed this year and their QB is either Ryan ‘Pickpatrick’ or Geno ‘turnover’ Smith they could have a lot of short fields. West anytime – 6/4 (PP) Also in this game, if you can find a market for Brandon Marshall catches, take the overs. However doesn’t look like there is one for this game.

Tight end trixie (0.5 – 4 total) – Davis (WAS) 17/10, Rudolph (MIN) 15/8, Walker (TEN) 7/5 – Jordan Reed out for the Redskins vs the worst TE defence in the league. Rudolph is still the no.1 target for the Vikings, and Walker is facing the Colts. They stink.

I’ve been hit a bit on these Defensive/ST TDs and tipping them, however, i’ll give it one more go in the Vikings vs Eagles game. The Vikings are the 2nd ranked defence in the league, coming off a bye, against a team that struggled last week. The Eagles didn’t score on offence last week, but their D and kick returner put up 14 points. Seems a half decent chance on both sides of the ball – 2/1 (365)

Marquis Lee anytime is one I tweeted about last night, currently second in targets behind Robinson, at 9/2 (PaddyPower) He’s up against one of the worst defences in the league for points against. I’ll take a shot at him

Anquan Boldin is the final guy I’ve got to mention, he’s essentially the Lions tight end, a stocky reciever. The Lions backfield is a mess, so they’ll likely target him in the red zone, and Matt Stafford has been really good this year. 9/4 is about for him at 888

Summary –

  • Mike Gillislee anytime – 13/10 (365)
  • Devante Parker and Jay Ajayi both to score – 17/2 (Skybet) 
  • James White anytime – 12/5
  • Blount anytime – 11/10 (PaddyPower)
  • Johnson anytime – 19/20 (365)
  • Johnson and Michael – 5/2 (Skybet)
  • 2 or more Lucky 15 – Ware 6/1 (KC) Beckham 7/1 (NYG) White 16/1 (PATS) Michael 10/1 (SEA) (0.5 pts – 7.5 total
  • Jacquizz Rodgers 063.5 yards – 10/11 – NAP – 5pts
  • AJ Green anytime – 19/20 – NB – 3pts
  • NAP/NB double – 3pts
  • Tight end trixie (0.5 – 4 total) – Davis (WAS) 17/10, Rudolph (MIN) 15/8, Walker (TEN) 7/5
  • D/ST TD in the Vikings v Eagles game – 2/1
  • Marquis Lee anytime – 9/2 (PP)
  • Anquan Boldin anytime – 9/4

Total outlay – 40.5

 

Good Luck with whatever you follow, and thank you for the kind words on twitter, we enjoy doing this, and it’s nice that people are reading it, and appreciating the effort put in by ourselves.

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