TNF – Week 11 – Saints @ Panthers – @TouchdownTips

So Monday night saw us get back to winnings ways, hitting 3 of the 4 touchdown scorers I tipped. They weren’t insightful, or anything that no-one else could of seen, but that’s what I needed, get back to basics and build some bank. Beckham at 10/11 and AJ Green at Evens, unfortunately Tyler Eifert didn’t score for the both players, but the 8 pts or so profit from the first two covered the 2 pt loss there comfortably, and left us 60pts up on the season so far. I left Jay (@jayhatton49 ) to the write up, and he pretty much nailed it, he insinuated both teams would score around 20 pts, and said that If Eli threw 2 or 3 TDs then they’d probably take the win in a close one.


The Carolina Panthers made the Superbowl last year, and that loss to Denver seems to have followed them on to this season, they started the season 1-5, but seemed to have turned it around following their bye week, a few even thought that was the start of their charge to winning the division again, assuming the Falcons would fall off, but the manner of their defeat to KC this week will hit them hard, giving up a 17 point lead to lose with the last kick of the match after Marcus Peters ripped the ball from Kelvin Benjamin has got to hurt. – Cam however looked back to his brash, bold self, running through a few guys to get the score from 4 yards out looking more like an RB than a QB, it’s what he does so well. The usual cast did what they should do for the Panthers, Benjamin and Olsen were the most targeted and caught 7 and 5 respectively, Devin Funchess finally got into a game, also reeling in 5 passes, and getting the solitary receiving touchdown. J.Stew had 13 carries on the ground, just ahead of Cams 12. In fairness their defence did the job well, they didn’t give up any touchdowns (and only around 300 yards total offence), they all came from the KC defence, so that’s a plus for the Panthers as they’ve been hit constantly by teams throwing against their young secondary. They will need to be sharp this week against the free-scoring Saints. It’s actually tough to choose someone to pin my hat to for an anytime TD for the Panthers here, Olsen hasn’t scored for a few weeks, so is probably due, the Saints have been susceptible to the run, so Cam is another i’ll be looking at, although he’ll probably be around evens. I’m not sure I can trust anyone else in the Panthers offence.

The Saints themselves suffered a crushing defeat last week too, Denver returning a blocked extra point attempt and returning it to the house for 2pts to take the win 25-23. They have improved markedly on defence in the last few weeks after the return of Delvin Breaux a couple of weeks ago, they were all over the Broncos this week and sacked Siemian 6 times as well as double figure hits on him, they should do well against the Panthers OL. After a running back by committee at San Fran a fortnight ago, they seemed to go back to focusing on Mark Ingram who has seemingly been forgiven for his fumbles, although an 11-8 split between him and Hightower is hardly a convincing majority. The Panthers are actually second against the run in the league this year, and have only allowed 58yds average over the last three games, that’s partly due to them being good up front, and partly to do with them being poor in the secondary (23rd against the pass), so teams are mainly throwing on them. That’s fine with Drew Brees, he loves to throw, he’s second in passing yards in the league and spreads it around, his favourite target until last week was rookie Michael Thomas, however after 4 for 40, he gave up two crippling fumbles against the Broncos which helped lead to them losing the match. So it will be interesting to see how they go this week. Willie Snead was the beneficiary of Brees’ ability last week, getting 2 TDs, I’m not sure you can count on him to even get a catch this week, but it’s worth noting. Brandin Cooks also got on the scoresheet and is capable of anything once he gets open. Brandon Coleman picked up a couple of catches too, and Coby Fleener plodded along at tight end with 2 for 26 himself. He’s ranked as the 20th TE this week, so probably not worth looking at.

This should be an entertaining watch, both teams are generally pretty good offensively, and although the Saints are better in the Superdome, they’ve put together some good performances on the road in recent weeks, generally concentrating more on the run, but I’m not sure if that will be the case this week. For the Panthers especially a win is essential, although they’re bottom of the division, they’re only 2.5 games off the lead, and can make ground with the Falcons on bye this week, as unlikely as that seems, much like my beloved AFC North, no-one seems to want to win it.

I said a week or two ago that going for double or triple TD scorers isn’t a way to get long term success, but this should be a high scoring game, the point total is over 52, and neither team is great in the secondary, so there should be quite a few thrown TDs. So as we’re a nice amount up on the week i’ll have a couple of dart throws at them at low stakes

1 point on each of the multiple TD scorers, all at Skybet –

  • Olsen, Thomas, Ingram – 14/1
  • Newton, Thomas, Cooks – 14/1
  • Olsen, Thomas, Ingram, Newton – 28/1 – Funny story about this, they listed it as 110/1 which I jumped on, went to check some more later in the night and saw it was in my open bets as 40/1 – After a few tweets I was told it was ‘an obvious error’ and that the reserve the right to correct errors if they’re mispriced. Got a free bet on higher odds than currently listed at least, but would of preferred the potential 110 pts. – In fairness it was quite obviously priced wrongly.
  • Cam Newton anytime – 13/10 (Betstars) 6/5 is the best at the mainstream bookies (PP) – NAP – 5pts

Good Luck if following, and thanks for reading.

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