Week 11 – Televised tips and write ups – @touchdownTips

I really hope we have some winners with the amount of effort-ing I’ve done this weekend!

Hopefully you’ve all had a nose at the weekly write ups usually done by @jayhatton49 but this week i’ve gone through all of the matches for the weekend and done a little on each, I’ll admit, as much as I love it, and I do, I wouldn’t be bothering with any of this if it annoyed me, it’s bloody tiring work! – https://touchdowntips.com/2016/11/19/week-11-previews-touchdowntips/

Anyway, on to the televised matches.

Ravens @ Cowboys – 1800 – SkySports 2

The Cowboys return home after defeating the best team in the AFC North (Yes, I know, it’s hard to admit, but, on paper at least, they are) in a storming match last weekend. This week they host the lead leading Baltimore Ravens. If you’re reading this then you’ve probably heard by now that they have 2 rookies running the show there, Rayne Dakota “Dak” Prescott at QB has been a revelation, the 4th round draft pick only ended up at Dallas because the Broncos traded up and took Paxton Lynch before the Cowboys got their second pick, how things could of been so different. Lucky for him he landed behind arguably the best offensive line the league has seen in the last 5 years, which always helps, but he’s been virtually flawless so far in the 9 games they’ve had this season. 14 TDs. 2 INTs on the season. It also helps that he was drafted alongside Mr. Ezekiel Elliott, who they traded up to take at 4th in the draft. That’s proved inspirational by Jerry Jones. They knew they were getting a 3 down, complete back,however, I doubt even the Cowboys expected this kind of production out of hi,, he leads the league in rushing yards, 1,005 yards, 9 TDs,  as well as an extra 250 yds and 1 TD there. He’s on target for over 2,000 combined yards on the season. He’s good. I’ll admit, I enjoyed watching him destroy the Steelers last week, and although he goes up against officially the leagues best rushing D, he seems to have done that a couple of times this season, and made them all look stupid, that should happen again tonight. In the passing game, Dez Bryant is apparently good, he’s a bit hot and cold at the moment, as he’s not an essential target for Dak, who seems to throw to who’s open instead of the age old tradition of just throw it to Dez. Hence the emergence of no.1 target Cole Beasley and TE Jason Witten, who get themselves open with alarming regularity.

The Ravens are apparently the best run defence in the league, they held the Steelers to 36 total yards rushing, which isn’t to be sniffed at. Add to that their incredible mediocrity on offence and you’ve got a stubborn team who grind out very close results. While i’m hard on the Ravens, they have missed Steve Smith for a lot of the season, and man do I respect him, in fact, i’d go as far as to say that I like him as a player, he’s not a big man, but he’s a crazy hard bastard, and he doesn’t give a shit about offending people. This is a game I think he’ll relish, his “football life” was on TV this week so all cameras will be on him, and I bet he can’t wait to be centre of attention.  Other than him, they have Mike Wallace adding a good option in the passing game. The run game currently goes through Terrance West, but he’s not been pulling up any trees, so they’ve been increasing Kenneth Dixons workload, he appears to me, to be the better runner, but while West is doing half decent things his play seems to be limited still.

The Cowboys are 7pt favourites for this match. While stats suggests they should win by that, I don’t think they will, but i’m not confident enough to bet against Zeke scoring multiple TDs and taking the game away from the Ravens.

Steve Smith anytime – 2/1 (Bet365) Zeke rushing yds – 083.5 – 5/6 (PP) Zeke and Steve Smith – 4/1 (Skybet)

Miami @ LA Rams – 2105 – SkySports2

So, Skysports in their infinite wisdom decided that instead of the potentially entertaining Eagles @ Seahawks match-up (which coincidentally i’m a lot more fantasy invested in) They would showcase a team that’s been involved in a 17-10 loss, a 13-10 loss, and a 9-6 win in the last 3 weeks. Now THAT’S good television. In fairness, this week sees the start of the no.1 overall draft pick, Jared Goff, a mean deemed too inept to displace Case Keenum for the season so far, Case Keenum by the way has 9 TD passes, and 11 interception, yet Goff was deemed by management STILL not good enough to displace him, anyway… They have one of the best RBs in the league who has been dire this year, admittedly he’s been running against a stacked box as teams know full well that the rams can’t throw the ball. When there’s been wholes, he’s been able to hit them, he’s scored 3 TDs this season, which in this offence is a miracle, so maybe he is pretty good after all. One player who has done well is Kenny Britt, despite the QB play, he’s averaged 77 yards per game over the season, which really is good. Tavon Austin should be better on the contract they gave him, and he may be with Goff under centre as he, Benny Cunningham and Gurley will more than likely be the check down targets for the Goff when he panics under pressure.

Miami have stumbled upon something that works for them, they managed to get their chosen O-Line together, and got Londonborn Ajayi going, he’s went for 200+ in consecutive games, before being stifled for a mere 79 from 19 carries against the Chargers last time out, my man Damien Williams stole the TDs in that match, and while it’s dangerous to bet anyone to score in a Rams game on either side of the ball, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him get in again this week. It’s also worth noting that Pouncey may be out on this offensive front for miami which may upset the apple-cart slightly. The passing game has been toned down due in part to Tannenhills ineptness, and the rise of the run game, so Jarvis Landry has been a far cry from his usual double digit targets. Devante Parker is a guy I love down the field, but he’s done nothing for me this year, so i’m way off him this week, every time I think he may have an impact downfield for the ‘fins Kenny Stills becomes that guy, however i’m not going for him either.

This games is not going to be entertaining. In fact i’d go as far as to say. It’s going to be poop.

Dolphins -2pts – 10/11 everywhere, Total pts – u39.5 – 10/11 everywhere

Packers @ Redskins

If you manage to make it through the previous televised match well done you… thank god and baby Jesus for Red zone, surely one of the lords finest creations. You should be in for a score fest with Green Bay travelling over to the Washington. Green Bay were involved in a 72 match last week with the Titans, and the Redskins arguably have a better passing offence than Tennessee do. This should once again be filled with points for both teams. The Packers have Aaron Rodgers, he’s still one of the best in the league despite their struggles this year. Or maybe in spite of their struggles on defence as it means he has to prove himself week in week out. Their pass game has mainly gone through Devante Adams who has become a major guy this season, last week he was 6 receptions for a massive 156 yards, yet somehow no TD. That was left to Jordy Nelson, who is the most targeted player in the league in the red zone, he finished last week with 12 for 126 and the solitary TD.  This week should see James Starks getting more rush attempts providing they don’t get hammered early on again, he’s returning to fitness and has carried the load in fat Eddies absence before. Randall Cobb should really be doing better than he is, but i’m hoping his lack of production is down to a nagging injury, he’s off the injury list this week (I know as i’ve got him in pretty much all my bloody fantasy leagues, so hopefully he’s back to fitness.

The Redskins have been hugely productive on offence in recent weeks, Cousins throwing for 500 yards before my very eyes in Wembley a couple of weeks back (with OT) then hitting 262 and 2 TDs vs the Vikings, which against them is an achievement. ‘Fat Rob’ Kelley has emerged as the no.1 RB for the ‘skins, and he cemented his place last week with a solid performance against the Vikings, 97 from 22 carries, is good enough against them, this week is another tough run defence, but he’s big enough to carry the load. They actually spread the ball around a lot last week, but generally Jameison Crowder has been the main recipient of Cousins passes, he’s on 5 TDs for the season, the next highest receiver? 1 TD. Strangely Pierre Garcon had the most catches last week, personally I can’t see that carrying on, although the Packers secondary is particularly bad. Vernon Davis has recently been coming on as the second tight end behind Jordan Reed, and putting up better numbers, he got another TD this week. It will be interesting to see where they head this week when they’re both on the field.

Actually surprisingly hard to call, and hard to pick a scorer, which seems ridiculous given the amount of offense on show. Not overly confident on Davis repeating but at 5/1 i’ll give it a go, however the Redskins give up 4.6 ypc and 13 TDs to RBs, that’s the joint worst in the league with the 49ers.

Redskins -2.5pts – 4/5 (365), James Starks anytime – 7/4 (365) Vernon Davis anytime – 5/1

So that’s it for the televised matches, others on my hit list this week…

Sterling Shepard for the Giants, Bears do well against no.1 WRs, but are 2nd worst vs WRs in general so other targets obviously do well, at 15/8 (PP) i’m on it.

Delanie Walker – 2/1 (WillHill) He’s the most reliable target in the most scoring-est (americanism?!) offense in the league, yes please. Also, Rishard Matthews at 9/4 for the same reason, Walker 3 in 4, Matthews 6 in 6. I’ll have both at over 2/1 each.

I think that Thomas Rawls  is worth a play at 3/1 (WillHill) a) He’s around 6/5 everywhere else so that gets me intrigued, and b) if he’s healthy as I think he may be given they ditch C Mike, then he’s in with a chance.

The NAP of the week, without a shadow of a doubt has to be LeGarrette Blount, He’s only a best of 4/6 (WillHill, was 8/11 earlier on Saturday) but he’s scored every game Brady has played, including 3 last week, and is playing the worst run D in the history of everything. – I’m going balls out – 10 pts on Blount

My NB for the day has to be Lev Bell, again not big odds, 8/11 at WillHill, but with the expected bad weather, and the awfulness of the Browns D, I’ve got to imagine that they’ll lean on their top 3 running back to get the job done. – 5pt on Bell, and 5 on the double at 1.88/1

I’ve also got a little bet on possibly the most random market i’ve ever bet on, Longest field goal scored… I’ve gone under 44.5 in Cinci, u42.5 in Cleveland and o43.5 in the Oakland match. There’s reason… Ohio is meant to be very windy, that’s not good for kickers, or long passes, and Nugent hasn’t exactly proved himself reliable for the Bengals, and I couldn’t even tell you the Bills kicker without looking it up… Oakland are playing in Mexico city, with one of the best kickers in the league, at 7000ft above sea level, there’s a chance he could kick the league record on Monday night, at 8/1 for the treble, i’m happy to mention it without commiting it to record for the blog.

Buccs v Chiefs – D/ST Touchdown – 13/8 (365)

If there’s a market about for Stefon Diggs u80 odd on yardage then go for it, all that’s about at 0037 on a Sunday morning is 63.5 on PP. I’m not touching that. Finally 365 have a market on this up at 74.5. I’ll have a little on the unders at 5/6.

Jordan Matthews seems to be set very high on his yards at 7o.5 for the Eagles vs the Seahawks, he’s 70.5 on 365, I don’t think he’ll get that against this defence. Go unders at 5/6 again, and a little double on Diggs and Matthews.

Summary

  • Steve Smith anytime – 2/1 (Bet365)
  • Zeke rushing yds – 083.5 – 5/6 (PP)
  • Zeke and Steve Smith – 4/1 (Skybet)
  • Dolphins -2pts – 10/11 everywhere
  • Mia v LA – Total pts – u39.5 – 10/11 everywhere
  • Redskins -2.5pts – 4/5 (365)
  • James Starks anytime – 7/4 (365)
  • Vernon Davis anytime – 5/1
  • Sterling Shepard anytime – 15/8 (PP)
  • Delanie Walker anytime – 2/1
  • Rishard Matthews anytime – 9/4
  • Thomas Rawls anytime – 3/1 (WillHill)
  • NAP – Blount anytime – 4/6 (WillHill) – 10 pts 
  • NB – LeVeon Bell anytime – 8/11 (WillHill) – 5 pts
  • NAP/NB Double – 1.88/1 – 5pts
  • Bucc v Chiefs D/ST TD – 13/8
  • Bears v Giants u42.5 – 10/11
  • Stefon Diggs u74.5 yards – 5/6 (365)
  • Matthews u70.5 yards – 5/6
  • Double on Diggs and Matthews – 2.36/1

54 points outlay – Big outlay for today, a lot of that is on the Nap/NB though, which really should be a good thing.

Good luck if you follow anything, could be a pivotal day for the blog!

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