Hola amigo, ayer podría haber sido mucho mejor, pero todavía terminó con ganancias! – We finished the night with 4 pts profit, one of the benefits of quite a few of the winners being around 2/1, i’m still gutted that Blount didn’t get in the end zone, well… didn’t get in without one of his team mates holding the opposition. which did happen and negated his 30yd touchdown run, much to my frustration.
Juego de tonights se lleva a cabo en la ciudad de méxico! And apparently they’re crazy for NFL there! There’s expected to be 80,000+ in estadio azteca. Its officially a home game for the Raiders who come here ss the leaders of the AFC West, ahead of the superbowl champions, the Chiefs and the Chargers, and can cement their place at the top this week with the Broncos on bye and the Chiefs unexpectedly losing at home yesterday. They really should win, they’re by far the better team and play much better football. However these games on neutral turf can be a bit of a mine field and its the first game in mexico for 10 years, its also worth noting that Mexico City is around 2000ft higher than mile high at around 7000ft, meaning players may struggle to catch their breath, and in theory, the ball should travel further with less effort.
So the Raiders go into the match with Derek Carr behind centre and he’s been pretty good so far this year, with over 2,500yds in the 9 games they’ve had this season, throwing for 17 TDs and only 3 INTs, he’s on the best form on his career in pretty much all stats, completion and passer rating are above his previous seasons, although he didn’t throw for any TDs in the last game against the Broncos, that was one of the reasons they won the game, they game plan very well for the team they’re facing. The Texans tonight actually have a fairly good defence against the pass, they’re 3rd in the league in yards conceded, so it will be interesting to see if the Raiders go with the same method used against the Broncos. If they do, then Latavius Murray is in for a good game tonight! He got 3 against the Broncos, and while he was out earlier in the season to give DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard a chance to prove themselves, they didn’t perform so Murray gets the the most of the carries. In the passing game they have been very good this year, with Cooper and Crabtree proving difficult to keep hold of. Cooper usually gets the yardage, while Crabtree is the bigger redzone, and general TD threat. Clive ‘best surname ever’ Walford is also available in the pass game, but in a complete insult to his surname, he seems to drop more than he catches. This is the first time i’ve mentioned a kicker in any writeup, but Janikowski is one of the best in the league, and there’s chat that he could break the NFL record playing at this altitude, that’s set at 64 yards! He’s 16 from 22 on field goals this season, with a long of 56. Good luck! Got to have a little mention for Seth Roberts who seems to get a nice share of TDs with few plays.
The Texans are somehow top of their division with a 6-3 record, despite the fact that they’ve conceded more points than they’ve scored this year. And it’s definitely in spite of their $72m quarterback Brock Osweiler. He’s awful. Truly awful. They won last week with him throwing for 99 yards. 99. YARDS. Most QBs throw that within the first quarter! Amazingly DeAndre ‘nuk’ Hopkins accounted for nearly half of that with 48. I feel for Nuk, last year he was dealing with random QBs week in, week out, but they at least looked for him, he’s got the ability to catch anything in his area, but if the ball isn’t thrown towards him then there’s not much he can do. There’s a whole host of stats showing how inept Brock is if you want to see them. Just know that he’s awful. – 11 TDs, 9 INTs in 9 games. So his shitness means there’s not a huge amount to look at in the passing game, Will Fuller started the season well, but has missed multiple weeks now with a hamstring injury now, he’s a game time decision tonight which makes him not worth taking a chance on unfortunately. Their tight ends probably are, and i’ve been on CJ Fiedorowicz for a few weeks running now, i’ll probably go in one last time on him tonight, despite the fact that they gave both of their other tight ends the touchdowns last week, Griffin and Anderson getting them. CJ has had sustainable targets for a month now, mainly because of Brocks inability to throw the ball more than 10 yards at a time. – Their run game will probably be Lamar Miller tonight, he wasn’t on the injury report this week so hopefully he’s good to go, but with Alfred Blue out Akeem Hunt is second in line, and worth a look although the odds on him are far shorter than i’d of liked for him, 4/1 isn’t worth the shot imo.
- CJ Fiedorowicz anytime – 9/2 (BetVictor)
- Murray anytime – 11/10 – (365) 4pts – NAP, 2 or more – 7/1 (365) 2pts
- Hopkins u70.5 yards (PP)
- Carr o241.5 passing yards on PP, and u259.5 – Back both, and you’ve got a nice 20 yard window where there’s a double win, otherwise you only lose a tiny amount.
- Murray and CJ Fed – 13/2 (Skybet)
- Total points under 45 – 20/21 (PP)
18 pts outlay, high for a Monday night game, but I think it’s balanced.
Now I have planned all weekend to tip up longest field goal o43.5 yards, the market is still there, but it’s now down to 8/13 while 5/6 was there earlier in the weekend so it’s too short to risk now.