Turkey Thursday! – 3 games – @touchdowntips

So, Monday didn’t go to plan, again, Latavius Murray was stopped at the half yard to deny the nap again. Brock was actually better than expected, but couldn’t give Hopkins over 70 yards, so that was good for us. CJ Fed led the team in catches, but no TD. Oh well, it’s another week, and we begin 46 pts up on the season.

It’s thanksgiving in the states, which means Detroit and Dallas play, the Lions host the Vikings in the first match (1730), Washington are at Dallas at 930, and the final match of the night at 130am sees the Steelers go to the Colts. – Annoyingly at the time of writing this 2100 on the Wednesday there doesn’t seem to be any yardage markets available, very frustrating.

There’s usually a couple of matches on freeview through the year, and this year, the Vikings trip to Detroit is one of the chosen matches, it’s on Pick, Channel 11 on Freeview at 1730 for anyone who doesn’t have sky and wants to give it a watch. Annoyingly it’s the least exciting of the three matches for me. The Vikings started the season on fire defying all the set backs along the way, but it was always going to end, and a few more injuries to the offensive line spelt the end of the winning run, they then went 4 without a win, before beating the hapless Cardinals last week, becoming the first team since 1953 (iirc) to have an over 100 yard kick return and pick six in the same game. Sam Bradford has been managing things for them at QB, and doing a fair enough job of it, since they got a new OC a few weeks back he’s looked better, and that’s mainly been due to finding Stefon Diggs a lot, he set an NFL record for having 2 consecutive 13 catch games before being shut down by Patrick Peterson last week, unfortunately he’s doubtful for this week, and likely out, which means they may have to look elsewhere. The two players who will likely benefit are Cordarelle Patterson and Adam Thielen – I think at least one of these guy will get into the end zone this week, picking which is a bit more of a challenge, although Thielen got it last week – Their main red zone threat is tight end Kyle Rudolph who is consitently consistent… The Vikings lack a run game at the moment, They’re trying to get Jerrick McKinnon and Matt Asiata going, but it’s proving tough behind a shambolic line. Asiata is the power back and therefore gets the goal line touches, so is always worth a look. This week they go up against a pretty poor Lions defence, so this could actually be a sneakily high scoring game, the total point line is set at 42, and it will be around 40-45 in my opinion.

The Lions are sat at the same 6-4 as the Vikings, but hold the tie breaker over them as they beat them in overtime a few weeks ago. Amazingly the Lions have trailed in the 4th quarter of every match this season, which is quite an achievement, whether they can keep that up is another thing. They have no run game at all, they won last week with just 14 rushing yards against the dogshit Jacksonville Jaguars. Theo Riddick is usually lined up there, but obviously catches more than he rushes, which he does very well, and he’s a very good weapon coming from deep, 8 for 70yds last week, Dwayne Washington actually had the most carries in the backfield with 13 for a grand total of 6 yards, and his longest was a 4 yard gain! so 12 for 2 yards… Their passing game is a strange one, Marvin Jones had a 202 yard receiving game in the third game of the season, since then he’s had less than 300, and had 1 for 15 last week, so safe to say he can’t be trusted in  the slightest. Golden Tate has been the main guy for the last month or so, although isn’t a reliable scoring threat. That job probably goes to Anquan Boldin and Eric Ebron at the moment, fake tight end, and tight end in tandem, putting their bulk on the line and getting the TDs, Ebron got a rushing TD last week from a yard out, and has averaged 80 yards in each of the last 3 games. Like the Vikings, the Lions also had a pick 6 and a kick off in their last match which meant that Matt Stafford missed out on any passing TDs. He’s been doing very well this year, so i’d expect a couple from him this week despite going up against a very good Minnesota defence.

If I had to pick a scorer from the Lions, I would probably lean towards Boldin at the odds. I think Jones, Riddick and Tate are all too short for my liking. Bit of a dart throw on scorers, but 2 of them will give a nice profit from this match, and while they’re not exactly prolific, the Vikings should put up pts against this defence. – Now the yardages are announced, I think i’ll go on Eric Ebron o45.5 at 365, he’s 50 and 52 at Sky and Victor, and as said above has averaged 80 a game in the last 3.

  • Adam Thielen – 5/2 (Ladbrokes – 1pt)
  • Matt Asiata  – 21/10 (365 – 2pts)
  • Patterson and Asiata – 15/2 (Skybet – 1pt)
  • D/ST TD in the game  – 7/4 (365 – 2pts)
  • Tribet any other result – 9/5 (365 – 2pts)
  • Ebron o45.5yds – 4/5 (365 – 2pts)

Second match up is going to be an intriguing affair, both teams are on big winning streaks, the Cowboys have won 9 in a row for the first time in franchise history, which is remarkable given some of the teams they’re had, and all thanks mainly to their two rookie of the year candidates, Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott. Dak at QB has been composed beyond his experience, on the odd occasion he throws a bad pass, or makes a mistake, he shrugs it off and carries on with the game plan, a lot of rookies panic and try something silly to try and fix their error. Zeke is the leading rusher in the league this year, and even against the no.1 run D in the league last week he eventually ground them down and put up nearly 100 yds on the ground, as well as 30 in the air. This week he comes up against the 11th worst in the league, who give up 4.6yds per carry, something only the 49ers suck more on… That’s a recipe for a Cowboys win. They’ll carry on pounding the ball, running the clock and taking up time on their offense to keep the defense on the field, it’s what they’ve done all season, and it’s obviously worked well! They took 8 mins on their final play last week to essentially finish the game. They’ve also managed to get Dez Bryant connected in the passing game, after week upon week of Cole Beasley and Jason Witten, which strangely enough has helped them score more in the passing game seeing as he’s a pretty good receiver, despite seemingly being an arsehole of a person. Beasley has been the most targeted receiver most weeks due to the way they’ve been playing, so should again see a decent amount of receptions.

The Redskins have been very impressive themselves, after losing the first 2 matches and everyone doubting Kirk ‘catchphrase’ Cousins, they’ve gone 6-1-1, losing to the Lions and tieing with the Bengals in London. Cousins has put up some impressive yards in those wins, and had 375 passing yards, and 3 TDs against the admittedly garbage Green Bay secondary last week. Pierre Garcon and Jameison Crowder both had 100 yard games, and they welcomed back DeSean Jackson who along with those two, also got a TD. Add to that the fact the ‘Fat Rob’ Kelley got 137 yards and 3TDs on the ground and you’ve got to admit they’ve got a damn impressive attack. The trouble is, how many drives will they actually have with the Cowboys controlling the game. Cousins was 21/30 last week and he’s 67% on completions on the season, I’d suggest he’ll need to stay above that, or at least repeat the downfield dimes he was dropping all game last week to be in  with a chance of keeping up with the Cowboys. Their secondary is pretty good, Josh Norman while I don’t think he’s as good as he seems to think, is a quality player and you’ve got to imagine he’ll follow Dez, and probably give away a host of facemask penalties again, but it stops him making plays at least.

All in all this is a really tough game to call, the Cowboys are a touchdown favourite and I think that’s fair. For PP to offer a 14 pt spread at around evens, I think i’d be foolish not to take it. If Zeke is set around 90 yards rushing i’ll be tempted to go overs on him against this Redskins run defence. – Zeke is set to o101 so i’ll be giving that a miss, Dak at 15.5 is the only thing even halfway tempting on the yards for players, there will be a lot of yards, but someone is going to bust, I just can’t pick who, and who’s going to get the yards, so i’ll be giving them a miss

Dallas by 1-13 points – 10/11 – NAP (PP – 5pts) – Winning margin (4 way)

The final match of Thanksgiving in the States sees the Colts host the Steelers. This was potentially going to be a shoot out with Luck and Roethliseberger trading long throws and TDs for fun. But unfortunately for the viewing public. Andrew Luck is out with a concussion, which means their usually quite potent passing attack takes a severe hit with Scott Tolzien under center. You’ve got to downgrade expectations on all players on offence really, TY Hilton has been consistent to a high level all year with Luck throwing to him, Moncrief since his return from injury has been the red zone threat you’d expect from him, and Doyle and Allen at tight end had been productive in their own right. All these guys will take a hit without Luck there. It may mean a little more for forever young Frank Gore at RB, but he can’t help this team to a win without their star QB. Fortunately thanks to a little tweet from a chap on twitter (@JackT_95) I managed to get on under 25 team points for the Colts before the line changed on Betway, it’s now set at a more reasonable 19 on there and 17.5 elsewhere. Other than those skill guys, it’s tough to talk about much in the Colts game. Their defence, although improving is still not very good.

The Steelers should get an easy win here without Luck there. Big Ben is admittedly shit on the road, and they generally seem to play to the level of their opposition, but after losing 4 straight and bumbling to a win against the Browns last week, they really need to put on a show, and the dome in Indy should be a suitable place to do it. Last weekend there was a lot of wind about in Ohio which may of lead to Ben’s garbage performance. It did however mean they leant entirely on LeVeon Bell who had a 201 yard performance, I can’t see him getting that again, but has consistently had over 100 yards combined since his return in the 4th match. Antonio Brown caught nearly half of Ben’s 167 yards last week, and as always will be the favoured target. Cobi Hamilton actually got a lot of looks last week, so i’ll be keeping an eye on what he does this week, unfortunately he’s best priced 19/4 which I don’t feel is worth the risk, especially as they knew they’d win last week so probably mixed it up a little more than usual. Ladarius Green is reportedly a “full go” this week, and 5/1 is very tempting on him at William Hill, the Steelers should be able to do whatever they want towards the end of this match as the Colts tire, so i’ll give him a go. Especially with most other sites having him around 2/1

The Steelers are around 10pt favourites, so I can’t take that, I don’t usually take double digits anywhere, and definitely won’t with the Steelers historically being so crap on the road. Even with the Colts and their backup QB. Again i’ll have a look at the yardages tomorrow and see what’s about. – Jack Doyle has seen less and less use since Dwayne Allen came back in, his yards are at 37.5 at 5/6 on PP, if I’ve won some cash on the previous games i’ll have a go on that. WillHill has TY Hilton at 80.5 at 10/11 also tempting to go unders on that with backup QB there.

  • Total points u48 – 5/6
  • Ladarius Green anytime – 5/1 (WillHill)

Thanksgiving Treble – Viks v Lions tribet (result decided by 6 or less pts), Cowboys by 1-13 pts, Colts v Steelers u48pts – 5.65/1 (2pts)

Summary – all 2 pts unless stated. I’ll be doing an edit on this if there’s anything that jumps out at me once the yard totals are up tomorrow, probably only an hour or so before kick off, so check back then if you want to see that, if not then, enjoy the rest of them

  • Adam Thielen – 5/2 (Ladbrokes – 1pt)
  • Matt Asiata  – 21/10 (365)
  • Patterson and Asiata – 15/2 (Skybet – 1pt)
  • D/ST TD in the game  – 7/4 (365)
  • Tribet any other result – 9/5 (365)
  • Ebron o45.5yds – 4/5 (365 – 2pts)
  • Dallas by 1-13 points – 10/11 – NAP (PP – 5pts)
  • Total points u48 – 5/6
  • Ladarius Green anytime – 5/1 (WillHill)
  • Thanksgiving Treble – Viks v Lions tribet (result decided by 5 or less pts), Cowboys by 1-13 pts, Colts v Steelers u48pts – 5.65/1

Comes to a total outlay of 21pts.

Ah sod it, it’s the Holidays in the states…

First TD Scorer trixie – Thielen 13/1, Elliott 5/1, Bell 9/2(PP)- 0.5 – 2pts total

23 Total outlay.

Good luck if you’re following, and please don’t get trampled to death in the black Friday sales. Retweet, Like, Spread the word etc…

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