So a couple of weeks ago I posted about @fezziksports putting out his projected team records for the season before the draft had taken place. (Suggested team records) This week the first place in vegas announced them (@southpointlv) and there were a few interesting ones that jumped out at me. (Divisional winners are on the second half of this post, so make sure you scroll down!)
So fair play to Skybet, who were the guys I managed to get most of my 30 points profit from the draft on… They have already priced up the over/unders on teams for the following season!
AFC North – Pit – 10.5, Bal – 9.5, Cin – 8.5, Cle – 4
AFC East – NE – 11, Miami – 7.5, Bills – 6, Jets – 5.5
AFC South – Titans – 9.5, Colts – 9, Texans – 8.5, Jags – 5.5
AFC West – Raiders – 9.5, Chiefs – 9, Broncos – 8.5, Chargers – 7.5
NFC North – Packers – 10, Vikings – 8.5, Lions – 8, Bears – 5
NFC East – Cowboys – 9.5, Giants – 9, Eagles – 8.5, Redskins – 7.5
NFC South – Falcons – 10, Panthers – 9, Saints – 8.5, Buccs – 8
NFC West – Seahawks – 10.5, Cardinals – 7.5, Rams – 5.5, Niners – 4.5
So first of all compared to Fezziks predictions… He was within 1 or 0.5 of pretty much all of them, the Chargers are set a win higher than he had them, which is a shame because I think that 7 is about right. The Bears are set 1 less than predicted… I think The Ravens are a solid under at 9.5. I would be amazed if they won that many seeing as they made no offensive moves during the draft or free agency after losing Steve Smith to retirement. I just don’t think they’ll be able to score that many TDs, although their defense is even more improved. (8/11 for Unders)
I’m sorry. But i’ve got to have The Jaguars over 5.5, they probably have a top 10 defense which was looking good last year, and they added Fournette in the draft who I believe will drastically change their offense. They were in dire need of a run game and he was the best RB in the class (with no character flaws anyway) and if they manage to fit him in it should free up room for the WRs and give Bortles more time to throw the ball. I know i’m setting myself up for a fall, but the failures were all with Bradley in charge. He’s gone now and they started playing in the final 2 games of last season. I can’t help myself. I’m on board. Annoyingly sky have priced them at 6.5 wins which doesn’t hold the value for me, so for now i’ll be giving it a miss. I think there’s a good chance they’ll still beat that mark, but it’s suddenly become a quite interesting division.
Do I rate the Browns highly enough to give them 4 wins? Possibly. They had a great free agency sorting out their Offensive line and they had a very good draft. 4 wins is not a huge amount so it’s quite possible they could get themselves to the 4 win point. Skybet have them at 4.5 wins – Overs is 5/4… I’d have been far happier with a round 4 wins…
I would be surprised to see The Patriots not hit 11 wins to be honest. They’re the Patriots. And Brady is there for the whole season this year. The pats are set to 11.5 on skybet. Take the over at 4/5
Now i’m very high on the Buccs this year. They had a great free agency and the draft did them no harm either picking up OJ Howard halfway through the first round. He adds to Desean Jackson and Mike Evans in what is now looking like a great offense. If their defense plays as it did in the second half of last season then I see no reason for them to not beat 8 wins. But it is a very difficult division and every team there has strengthened, it’s looking like a cracking division to be honest. I’d imagine that’s the reason that the Buccs have actually lengthened in price from 40/1 to 66/1 for the Superbowl. I may well double down at those odds. If I think the Buccs will be the winners of the South, then logically that would mean that the Falcons probably won’t make their 10 win target. I’m loving the Buccs over 7.5 at 8/11.
The Jets we all know even with a strong them they will be losing to the Patriots both times. They definitely do not have a strong team. In fact they seem to be participating in #scamforsam and throwing the season to pick up Sam Darnold in the draft next year for their starting QB. So I doubt they’ll make it to 5.5 wins, in fact it’s a little insulting to the Bills that the Jets are only half a win behind them at this early part of the off season. Got to go under 5.5 at 8/11 on the Jets.
So my early look at the odds on wins…
- Ravens under 9.5 at 8/11
- Patriots over 11.5 at 4/5
- Buccaneers over 7.5 at 8/11
- Jets under 5.5 at 8/11
Annoyingly it won’t let me place them as an accumulator, not even trebles (seeing as the Pats and Jets are in the same division I can understand not being allowed a 4 fold…) So may be worth waiting for other places to get some odds up. Betfred allowed me to multiple them last year, but I’m not sure how long it will be until they price them up. If you want to lump on one of the 4 above this long before the season starts, then go for unders on the Ravens. I shall be waiting though.
Something that has been released in various places, and is available for multiple bets is the division winners.
The Steelers jumped out at me immediately, they were original priced up at 6/4 by Skybet, then 5/4, now best priced on there at 11/10 That sucks. They really should win that division, The Bengals drafted well and I think they’ll finish second, but the Steelers are the better team still.
Obviously the Patriots will win the East, they’re a massive 2/9… So only good in an acca. Amazingly this is actually a good price compared to the 1/7 available at Paddypower!
The Buccs are actually the 4/1 least likely to win the NFC South on Skybet.
I can’t see past the Seahawks winning the NFC West, The Cardinals just have too much to do to catch them, they’re only at 1/2 though so again i’ll add them to make a 4 fold.
- The 4 above work out to about 18/1 – (5 pts)
- Buccs to win the South – 4/1 (5 pts)
Usually I wouldn’t go for stakes at 5 pts on a 4fold but I don’t see the point having 2 pts tied up for 9 months. The returns don’t really reward the timescale otherwise.
Obviously the Buccs are the risky one here, it is a tough division, but I’m so high on them at the moment that i’ll take the risk, and you know what, I’ll even take EW on them being the third different team from this division to make the Superbowl at 66/1. (3pt EW at Skybet, still 40/1 elsewhere) Or should I go for them to win the NFC at 25/1, they probably won’t beat the Patriots (who I’m assuming will make it again) so you’re playing for the EW bit of 66/1 (at 1/2 odds) so 33/1, which means at level stakes you’re realistically getting them at 16.5/1 to win the NFC with the possibility of winning it and winning big money. Hmmm, I’ll stick to the Superbowl price, you never know what might happen in the final when they get there!
16 pts total outlay. (Seeing as we made 30 on the draft, I don’t mind the risk!)
Adam – @TouchdownTips