So as I alluded to on twitter yesterday, there’s new markets popping up every week at the moment and I’ve had a better look at a few of them this morning and hopefully found so decent odds on a few of them. There’s a lot to go through so i’ll do MVP and Yard leaders here, then a separate post for a few of the other markets, things like sack leader, most sacked, defensive player (and rookies) of the year, comeback player of the year etc… Still waiting on total team points markets which will be yet another post.
I usually keep an eye on oddschecker as it shares a lot of the prices available around the UK. However it’s not exactly 100% reliable so I usually have a look at individual websites as well, for example it has no prices from bet365 on Most passing yards, but they are offering prices on their website, so if you’ve got time it’s worth it to check sites individually, if you haven’t got the time,be then come here and I’ll probably have done the donkey work for you.
So I guess I had better start with Regular Season MVP – I will say it’s not a market that I will betting on, I just don’t see much value in it. It will more than likely be a Quarterback (9 of the last 10 years). And if you believe, as I do that the Patriots are going to win 14 or more games this season, then you have to think that it will be Tom Brady winning it. He’s available at 4/1 if you want to take that price (Skybet, Betstars). Next up after Brady are Rodgers, Wilson, Ryan, Big Ben. I don’t think it will be any of them other than Rodgers, he has more weapons in GB this year and could push for record TD numbers. I expect Ryan to drop off, Big Ben, nah, and Wilson still has a crummy OL in front of him, one at a slightly bigger price that I could feasibly see a route to winning is Derek Carr (20s on 365). They don’t seem to like giving it to Brady every year even if he probably deserves it. Carr has a Great OL, Great targets, a probably improved running game to help him out. If you wanted to try and be clever and go for someone outside of a QB then I would avoid Zeke, he’s likely to be suspended for at least one game (announcement coming early next week I think) and I’d be looking at Lev Bell for the Steelers, he’s available at 25/1 on William Hill. There’s a fairly good chance that he’ll be on for 1,000 yards rushing and 1,000 receiving if they ride him like they did last year, and I can’t see him scoring as few as he did last year either. He’s playing for the biggest contract an RB has ever got and he’ll want to show he’s worth that. David Johnson is a similar price and has a similar workload, he led the lead in total touchdowns last year and they’ve been talking up giving him even more of the ball this year in Arizona, he would probably be my backup for the same reasons as Lev really, but his OL is much worse than in Pitt so he’s less likely to get the production IMO. (Also at 25/1) – In summary. It should be Brady, if not it will probably be a QB. I won’t be touching it.
One of the season long bets that we won on last year with Most Passing Yards – And although the bookies are smarter this year giving just 4/1 on Drew Brees (we were on 6s last year when he won it), It seems foolish to go against him on this market every year, and this year is no different in all honesty. He’s had over 4,800 yards in all of the last 6 season, 4 of them over 5,000 yards. There has been over 5,000 yards thrown 9 times, 5 of those were Drew Brees. He’s a machine down in New Orleans and although there’s a slight area of concern in the fact that they lost Brandin Cooks, which could hurt a little, and the defence SHOULD be stronger, and the running game SHOULD be stronger as well with AP in the backfield. I don’t see them changing the game plan a considerable amount. Outside of him, unsurprisingly the next two up are Brady and Ryan – There’s no real reaosn to go against either of these two, everyone knows Brady, he’s the Greatest, and Ryan was the regular season MVP last yea. Extrapolating out from his 12 games last year, Brady would have been at nearly 4,800 yards and they’re arguably stronger this year than last having added the aforementioned Cooks from the Saints, so It definitely wouldn’t be a bad bet at 5/1 on him. I expect Ryan and the Falcons offence to drop off slightly without Shanahan there, he had his career year last year just shy of 5,000 yards and has thrown for over 4,500 for the last 5 years, again, it wouldn’t be a stupid bet at all (9/1 on Coral compared to 9/2 in some other places) But for me, my second bet is Philip Rivers – He just loves to throw the ball, he has a better OL than last year so should get a lot more protection, and better targets, although the Chargers injury jinx does seem to have followed them to LA as well with #7 overall draft pick Mike Williams struggling with a back injury and could possibly miss a great deal of the season if he has surgery. If he misses it’s a shame because his wingspan would have aided Rivers hugely. Keenan Allen is the other big guy in that offence, and if he stays fit should go over 1,000 yards on his own. He’s had two big injuries but they’ve been unrelated and very bad luck, he isn’t aggravating the same one year on year, so hopefully that’s his bad luck gone. Then they have Hunter Henry and Antonio Gates at TE, Tyrel Williams, Inman and Benjamin who all had good years last year in place of Allen, so they have the depth. One other thing is that little stadium. I think it could make a big difference for the Bolts and could become a bit of a fortress for them if they get used to it quickly enough. At 25/1 I will be taking him EW on BetFred (1/4 1-2-3). Worth a shout at a (relatively) big price is Jameis Winston. If you’ve read any of my off season stuff you’ll know i’m high on the Buccs this year and he’s another with a good team around him who has improved his targets. He’s also available at 25/1 but he doesn’t have the history that Rivers has to back up the hype, so I’ll be sticking with the babymaker over Famous. – Brees 5pts on the nose at 4/1 (Skybet) – Rivers 2pts EW at 25/1 (Betfred)
Most Rec. and Most Rushing yards are also available at all good stockists, it’s probably worth saying that some places are paying win only, while others are offering pretty decent EW prices. So depending on what you want to do make sure you realise that. For receiving yards you’ve got Julio and Antonio Brown at the top of the markets. I won’t be taking either of them at their prices, they’re 4/1 and 7/2 respectively. Again, no real reason why they won’t be up there, but I just don’t fancy them in this market this year. We saw last year that Lev Bell will take the bulk of everything in Pittsburgh and they have also got Martavis Bryant back from suspension who will provide a far better #2 than the host of crap they had in that position last year, as well as Eli Rogers being more trusted and Juju Smith-Schuster possibly having an impact as a rookie. None of them is on Browns level, but they’re all after the ball. Julio has less competition in Atlanta, but again, I expect that offence to drop off a little. He also had a couple of dud games, and a few huge games last year, so you could say if he didn’t have the duds he’d have been on 1,500, or the other way, if he didn’t have the huge games he’d have been even less. I’ll probably be taking a couple of EW guys in this market. Maybe biased, but AJ Green at 18/1 on Ladbrokes who are paying 4 places is a good look. He was on target for huge numbers last year before getting injured 36 yards short of yet another 1,000 yard season. 964 from 9 games… extrapolate that out to the full 16… 1,713 yards. And we all know that extrapolation is an exact science. He definitely would have got that many. Well, maybe not, but he probably would have beaten TY Hilton for the title last year. The concerns for him are a possibly awful OL, John Ross, Joe Mixon, Gio Bernard, Tyler Eifert all being fit (maybe) But AJ is probably the 2nd or 3rd bet WR in the league, could have coverage taken away by these guys being fit and was running a lot of his favourite go route in the first day of camp yesterday. Others to consider. Michael Thomas at the Saints, 20/1 (4 places) and I guess Keenan Allen (50/1 4 places) if you believe the hype on my passing leader bets. Thomas has no Brandin Cooks and put up huge rookie figures last year. He will be more known this year and will attract move coverage though. It wouldn’t shock me if he’s up there, but not for me. And Keenan Allen… If he stays fit for the full 16 games, then who knows, using the foolproof extrapolation method again, taking his 63 yards in one half over the whole season… Boom. 2,000 yards. In all seriousness, he’s a talented guy and Rivers likes him. Demaryius Thomas is one who I normally wouldn’t consider for anything, ever. BUT… He apparently played a lot of last year with a knee injury, he has new more offensive coaching staff, and reportedly has “his play” back, he’s great at running after the catch and is expected to get 130+ targets next season, the QB situation in Denver is a concern though, so he’s a long shot. You can take either 40/1 for top 3, or 33/1 for top 4 in the league. Why not TY Hilton who led the league last year? I don’t like the Colts, Moncrief missed a lot of games last year and there was no-one else so all went to TY, they haven’t added much, maybe Kamar Aiken can take a few targets? I just don’t like that team to do much. Sorry TY. Why not Beckham? He’s great, I won’t deny that, but they’ve got a lot of mouths to feed in the passing game. Again wouldn’t shock me to see him lead the league, but not for me this time around. In summary… 2pts EW on each of AJ Green at 18/1 and the Thomas Brothers, Michael at 20/1 and Demaryius at 33/1 all at Ladbrokes for the 4 places.
So most bookies seem to still have Ezekiel Elliott (10/3) is the market leader for Most Rushing yards and obviously he was rather good in his first season and should get even better this year, but I really believe he’ll miss either 1 or 2 games at the start of the season, that could be 250odd yards? Well, he was over 300 yards ahead of second place last year, so maybe they’re still correct. I think Dallas will pass the ball more this year, Dak has shown he’s competent and should have a fully fit Dez Bryant to help him out. They lost a couple of guys on the OL that was so important to both facets of the game this year and while I don’t think it will have a considerable difference. It could slow them a little. Lev Bell is second in the books at 7/2. He missed the first 3 games last year and would have probably been over 1,500 rushing yards had he played the full season. They ran him into the ground and he just kept patiently waiting behind his OL before exploding for big gains. I think they’ll do the same again, and if he stays fit there’s no reason he won’t lead the league. Next up is David Johnson available at 8/1, it’s been reported they’re going to use him as practically the entire offence this year, 30 carries, and however many catches if he gets his way, because he didn’t have the best of offensive lines and his ability to catch the ball he was down in 7th in rushing yards last year, although 50 more in the final game where he got injured and he’d have been up in 3rd which would have been a more fair representation of his year. Jay Ajayi is there at 14s, he also missed a few games at the start of the year and would have probably been 2nd behind Zeke had he played the full season. They figured him out and have most of his OL back this year. The worry here is his inconsistency. He had 3 200 yard games (2 against the Bills) but from when he took the starting job in week 5, also 7 games below 80 yards rushing. LeSean McCoy shouldn’t be priced up at 20/1 and he’s the guy I’ll be having an EW punt on to be top 4 in the league. He was 20 yards off 3rd place last year with 1,267 and they traded away Mike Gillislee who got 577 yards in the same offence. Both of those guys averaged over 5 yards per carry in a run first offence that had precious few other weapons. They look like they might actually get a few games out of Sammy Watkins at WR this year which should make teams respect the passing game a little more meaning less congested boxes in the run game. In theory. They also signed Patrick DeMarco who is a cracking full back and can punch holes for Shady. This is a really tough market to call and there’s quite a few who I think will be in with a chance of a top 4 finish so it’s tough to whittle them down to a few.
- Most Passing yards – Brees – 5pts at 4/1 (Skybet), Rivers 2pts EW at 25/1 (BetFred – 3 places)
- Most Recieving yards – 2pts EW on each – Green – 18/1, Michael Thomas – 20/1 Demaryius Thomas – 33/1 (All Ladbrokes for 4 places)
- Most Rushing yards – 2pts EW on LeSean McCoy – 20/1 (Ladbrokes – 4 places)
Total outlay – 25 points.
Other off season bets are here – Offensive Rookie Betting – O/U and Division Bets –
Total outlay for the off season so far – 51 points.
Just checked my spreadsheet and I’ve put out 66 points so far, Think I added a few personal bets to the ones I’ve posted on here.
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