A little change of plan this week as I’m busy all Sunday, these are basically the write ups I did for the OLBG ‘experts’ blog, you can see it here with a little more info and some picks that I’ll be making on these games. Usually I do a full more in-depth write up on the games that are televised in the UK, and while I’ve done one on the London game I don’t really have the time this week to do one on the other televised games unfortunately.
There will be a lucky 15 on some “bankers” at odds of around evens, I think that 365 will be the best priced for them from what I’ve found so far, the guys will be mentioned in the write ups and put in the summary at the end.
This isn’t up to my usual standards, so apologies for that, there’s not as many yard lines around so this is mostly anytime TD prices, I would like to say that it has in no way been rushed, all selections are ones that I’m following with my own cash, so I wouldn’t put out anything that I didn’t think would win, although there’s an pretty obvious longshot dart in the selections… I had a lot of success on the yardage markets last week so it’s a little frustrating I can’t have access to them all at any point due to family commitments, but you know what it’s like.
Denver at Buffalo
The Bills won against the Jets in the opener and for a second we all forgot that they got rid of a lot of their better players in the off season and that they may actually be able to do something this season. They were toothless against the Panthers last week and this Broncos defence has looked as good as ever in the air and much improved against the run. This is going to be a long day for the Bills. Siemian seems to have picked up the new offense perfectly and is playing very well. Broncos win and I’d happily take them against the spread as well. – I’ll be on CJ Anderson anytime in this one, he’s been in electric form so far this season now that he’s filly fit and got into the endzone twice last week, once through the air and once on the ground. It’s a choice between him and Emmanuel Sanders in this one, but i’ll be taking the RB as they have a more reliable role.
New Orleans at Carolina
The Saints may not go 7-9 for the 4th year in a run. They’ll be lucky to make it to 5 wins with this defence. They can put up points, they always can, but they haemorrhage them at the other end so won’t be winning too many games this season. The Panthers haven’t exactly looked good so far, Cam isn’t really clicking at the moment and now that Greg Olsen is out with a broken foot I would expect more from Ed Dickson (3/1 on PP) Funchess, Benjamin, but I think this could be the week that McCaffery (13/8 on 365) blows up. I’ll be looking at anytime and 2+ (16s) for him, as I’ve said on here before he’s an awesome player to watch once he gets going, he has been struggling between the tackles, but if he breaks a tackle or two, which could well happen against the bum Saints defence he can easily go all the way. Carolina win.
Pittsburgh at Chicago
Never back the Steelers against the spread away from home. They generally let you down. They should win this against a Bears team with their #1 RB banged up, who are relying on a rookie to make their game changing plays. They have less than nothing in the passing game and Mike Glennon hasn’t looked great. The Steelers haven’t really clicked so far, Bell could blow up at any point though. The Steelers will win, but I never trust them to cover the spread on the road.
Atlanta at Detroit
The game of the weekend sees two 2-0 NFC teams go to battle at Ford Field. The Lions have looked impressive in their first 2, but have played an ageing Cardinals team who lost their best player in the 3rd quarter, and a Giants team with no offensive line. The Falcons seem to have overcome/ignored any Superbowl hangover after scraping a win in their first game against the Bears, which they should have lost, they convincingly took care of business against the Packers in their swishy new Stadium, albeit against some 3rd string offensive linemen come the end and a Pack team without Jordy for most of the match. Atlanta have too much firepower here. The Falcons struggle against pass catchers from the backfield and the Lions have one of the best in Theo Riddick (o50.5 combined yards on 365 at Evens or 47.5 at 5/6 on PP) , That’s a reasonable line in fairness, I think he’s the most likely to have a good game for the Lions. Outside of him I would be looking at a bit of a long shot in Kenny Golladay (Best of 2/1) on the logic that the Lions will be trailing in a high scoring game and he seems that he’s the best downfield and red zone threat for them. The Falcons have a handful of guys who could score here, Freeman and Coleman to me would be the most likely, I like Sanu to have a decent game here, he’s been the most targeted WR so far this season, he’s a low of 50.5 on 365. He has 47 and 85 in the first 2 games.
Cleveland at Indianapolis
Brown is the right colour for this matchup, the toilet bowl of the season so far, whoever wins this gets the honour of not risking going the season without winning. The Colts with Jacoby Brissett looked a lot better than under Scott Tolzein last week, pushing the Cardinals to OT, but they aren’t doing a huge amount offensively. The guy to look out for here is Jack Doyle. The Indy tight end was targeted highly last week catching 8 of 8 throws his way for 87 yards, and the Browns struggle against that position. Look for yards, receptions, anytime, 2+ if they’re good odds/line I’ll be on them! The Browns will be looking for Rishard Higgins (9/4) or Ricardo Louis (13/2 on Unibet) now that Corey Coleman is out. Again. Tough one to call but I’ve said Browns all along. The Colts just suck. Doyle is 9/4 to score anytime. His yards are set around 50, he should get them..
Tampa Bay at Minnesota
Sam Bradford is already confirmed as out meaning that the Vikings are going in with Case Keenum again this week, he wasn’t a complete wreck last week but he did pretty much stop the Vikings offense. The Buccs had a cozy warm up last week vs the Bears as Mike Glennon seemingly forgot that he’d changed teams in the summer. They didn’t have to push the ball down field so we didn’t see any mistakes from Jameis. Mike Evans did speak of his happiness of not being double teamed for once, he’ll likely be trailed by Xavier Rhodes here, so look for whoever the third WR is other than he and D Jax, they also boast a very good defence. Buccs win a relatively low scoring one with Keenum under centre for the Vikings and the Buccs playing against a very good defence. We are already on the Buccs +2 which was the line before the Bradford news, when that was announced I made sure we got on quickly as I knew it was going to be a 4-5 points swing the other way, the handicap is now Buccs -2.5 so we’re 4 points well in here. The line on this game is hideously low as the bookies are running scared, as with the Ravens game, I can’t be taking u39 points. That’s horrible.
Houston at New England
The Texans actually pushed the Patriots close in the playoffs last year, if they had anything resembling an average offense they could have made it past them, but alas, they did not. Watt, Clowney and Mercilus have yet to record a sack between them this year, and ole Tommy is tough to hit, Bill Belichick has a crazy record against rookie QBs not losing to one in 15 years. Even with the plethora of injuries of they’ve been receiving they have too much for a beaten up Texans team. Despite Danny Amendola probably returning from concussion here, I’m all over James White in this one. Patriots win. – James White is 15/8 anytime, 16/1 for 2 or more, and his combined line is 51.5 yards at 5/6 on PP. I would also be leaning towards the unders on Hopkins yards here, the Pats take away what you do best, and seeing as the Texans entire offense is Nuk Hopkins I would imagine they’ll take him out of the game as best they can.
Miami at NY Jets
The Jets suck. Kearse has done well for them. Austin Sefarian Jenkins should return. That’s far too much on them. I expect smokin’ Jay Cutler to do enough in the passing game to allow Jay Ajayi go crazy this weekend. Ajayi anytime/2 or more. Miami win. To get nearly evens on Jay Ajayi here is crazy, I would have thought he’d be closer to 1/2 against this Jets team, especially after last week, the one thing going against him is the fact that he’s not practised much this week, but coach Gase has said that he will be playing. Jay Ajayi anytime – 10/11 – Austin Sefarian-Jenkins returns from suspension this week after looking pretty good in pre-season, you can get 17/2 on him, but he’s a little too much of a risk for me in his first game back.
NY Giants at Philadelphia
I haven’t seen an offensive line as poor as the Giants since… well, since catching bits of the Seattle game on Sunday, and well… The Bengals game on the Thursday before. But to the point. They sucked. Eli didn’t have much time to throw, he sacked himself a few times because he was seeing ghosts, and when he did find his open receivers they dropped it. They have zero run game too which doesn’t help. If Eli makes it out of this game still being able to walk it will be an achievement against a very good front 7 of Phillie. The Eagles have no running game to talk of either, but have enough in the pass game. Zach Ertz should hit his yard target assuming it’s around 65. Eagles win – Ertz yards are at 59.5 on Skybet. That’s a good bet.
Seattle at Tennessee
Everything in my head says that the Seahawks will get it together when it counts, and this is definitely when it counts, but their offensive line is just so poor. They’re giving themselves no chance to do anything. Chris Carson seems like he’s the hot hand in the running game there, but it’s always tough to tell with Seattle. DeMarco Murray seems to be carrying a knock (9/4), so it could finally be time for Derrick Henry (13/8) to step up. But this is a tough Seattle defence, this is a really tough one to call. Titans at home. Look for the Unders. – Won’t be touching it at 40.5 although I’d be surprised if it reached that line.
Cincinnati at Green Bay
I am a Cinci fan. We have been awful, truly horrible for the first two games, it’s been a real baptism of fire for the new offensive line, and they’ve been horribly disfigured from third degree burns. The Packers aren’t a top defensive unit and their best looking defensive player is out through injury, as is LB Nick Perry. The Bengals also hired a new offensive co-ordinator after Zampese refused to do the sensible thing of going to their best player repeatedly. AJ Green should get all the looks this week, look for his yards. I disagree with what has been written elsewhere, the Bengals defence has been very good, except for the odd lapse. But Green Bay will undoubtedly put up points, they do against everyone. I am probably going to stop a consensus pick here and it’s not one I would bet on BUT…nah, I can’t do it. Packers win, but I think the Bengals will cover the spread. Ty Montgomery anytime 6/5 (365) Geronimo Allison could also be a good one to look for here with Randall Cobb probably missing out. He’s a tad low at 7/2, but he could well find the paint this week.
Kansas City at LA Chargers
No matter the City the Chargers find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Their Korean kicker Koo has missed two field goals in the dying seconds of their games so far, one that would have taken it to over time and last week one that would have won them the game. The coaching hasn’t helped but he’s got to make the kicks. They haven’t been able to get the run game going either which isn’t helping them at all. The Chiefs on the other hand have dealt with losing Spencer Ware brilliantly due to the explosion of Kareem Hunt. He didn’t get a whole lot of the ball last week as they look to not burn him out, but still got himself 2 TDs, unsurprisingly the 5 in 2 games is the most a rookie has put up at the start of their careers. The Chiefs have won the last 11 in division and are too good for them here. News today is that the best corner back that the Chargers have, Verrett has been ruled out for the season. It would have been tough for them anyway, but without him I think the Chiefs will win a little more easily.
Oakland at Washington
It’s always tough for a West coast team travelling across the country, but the late kick off here should negate any disruption for the Raiders, with Carr playing they have won 6 in a row on the road, they’ve got a top 5 offensive line, WR and RB corps, they can hurt you in so many ways and I can’t see the Redskins keeping up with them. The Redskins had a good win on the road in LA, but still aren’t clicking so far this season, Pryor only got 4 targets, all in the second half last week, they concentrated on their ground game against the Rams and may well try the same here. Kelley, Perine and Thompson all put up significant numbers. But the Raiders should win and cover the spread. Jared Cook is the guy to look for here, he’s 5/2 on Unibet. The Redskins aren’t very good against the tight end, (allowed 95 yards from the Rams TE last week and 93 from Ertz the week before) so he looks the logical choice with Josh Norman probably locking down one of the receivers. From the Redskins side it looks like Jordan Reed might not go, if he doesn’t then look for Vernon Davis at 5s on Ladbrokes/Coral
Dallas at Arizona
The Cowboys were stuffed convincingly at Mile High last week and fans of Americas team will be demanding some kind of bounce back here. Ezekiel Elliott was held to his lowing rushing yards ever, and seemingly gave up on the game, leading to speculation that his off-field issues are getting to him and the team. Dez is proving himself to be the man I thought he was, average. Although he has been facing some of the best corners in the league and will be nullified here as well. Looks for Old man Witten to be the go-to guy again this week. The Cardinals weren’t great against Indy last week. Is Carson Palmer past it? My immediate reaction was yes, and it’s not gone away yet. I think the Cowboys bounce back and cover the spread
Summary – All Bet365 unless stated.
- CJ Anderson anytime TD – 10/11
- Christian McCaffery anytime TD – 13/8
- Ty Montgomery anytime TD – 6/5
- Jay Ajayi anytime TD – 10/11
- The above 4 in a Lucky 15 (Bet365), 0.5 stake per selection – 7.5 pts Total
- Jack Doyle anytime TD – 9/4 – 2pts
- James White o51.5 rush and rec yards – 5/6 (PP) – 4pt – NAP
- James White anytime TD – 15/8 – 2pt
- James White 2 or more – 16/1 – 1pt
- Christian McCaffery 2 or more – 16/1 – 1pt
- Jack Doyle rec. yards – o50.5 – 5/6 (PP) – 2pt
- Zach Ertz rec. yards – o57.5 – 5/6 (PP) – 3pt – NB
- McCaffery and White both 2+ – 288/1 (365) – 0.5pt
Total outlay – 23 points.