Safe to say yesterday did not go well. In fact it couldn’t have gone much worse. Not a single win from the tips posted. It was a very strange weekend, but after having today to think it all over and take everything into account, I’ve realised I’ve got to lick my wounds, suck it up and move on. We were actually pretty close on a couple, Ben Watson had a reception removed because of a needless penalty, that would have been a win, Zach Ertz, the NB finished on 55 yards, 3 yards short of his line target, and it took a 61 yard field goal to stop that going to overtime where he probably would have got a 3 yard catch. And then there were a few I mentioned in the write ups which you may have got if you read through them all (I know there’s a lot) “Jared Cook is the guy to look for here, he’s 5/2 on Unibet” and “From the Redskins side it looks like Jordan Reed might not go, if he doesn’t then look for Vernon Davis at 5s on Ladbrokes” – Two nice winners which would have eased the losses had I actually gone ahead and tipped them. James White didn’t really get involved, Christian McCaffrey did, he led the team in receiving yards, but Cam Newton stole the goal line carry for the score. And Jack Doyle was hardly used for the Colts, TY Hilton finally getting some action from Jacoby Brissett.
The games yesterday were bloody brilliant, especially the early slate with 3 of them going down to the final plays. The Lions fell half a yard short from yet another 4th quarter comeback with Golden Tate stumbling and touched a millisecond before he got into the end zone, The Bears beat the Steelers in overtime, and really should have done it in regulation (I did say that the Steelers wouldn’t cover the spread, never trust them on the road) and the Eagles won with the final kick of the game, rookie Jake Elliott making himself an instant hero with a 61 yarder after Odell Beckham one-handedly got his team back into the game, old Tommy Boy led a brilliant drive to snatch victory away from the Texans. As if the football gods hadn’t lumped enough pain on me for the day, the Bengals threw away a decent sized lead to lose in overtime to the Packers, Aaron Rodgers first win against the Bengals and first win in overtime. On the plus side they did give Joe Mixon over half the carries finally. I’ll definitely be looking at him vs the Browns next week. It’s fair to say that’s a big must win game for the Bengals.
Anyway, on to Monday night football and looking to get back on track tonight.
The Cardinals come home after scraping to an overtime win against a poor Colts side last week, stats wise they actually looked pretty good. Palmer threw for over 300 yards, but that didn’t come until the 4th quarter where they scored 10 points to draw them level. Their defence was solid throughout though and it was that unit that pretty much won them the game intercepting Brissett with the first play of overtime, leaving them with a short drive to reach field goal range and take the win.
The Cowboys defence matches up well for the Cardinals, they are weaker in the secondary than anywhere else and with David Johnson out of the game it’s the passing game that they will have to rely on. They’re also struggling a little in that area, John Brown has the worst luck in the world due to his sickle cell anaemia, he has a quad injury that seems to keep re-occuring which means it’s all on JJ Nelson down the field, he’s also “questionable” with a hamstring injury tonight, but it seems like he’ll be active. If not, then next man up is Jaron Brown. The chain-mover for the team is usually Larry Fitzgerald, but he did very little last week against the Colts frustratingly for us as we had him to score anytime, I’d be surprised if he only receives 3 targets this week.
The running game without DJ is a mixed bag and tough to tell. It seems like Chris Johnson will eventually get the main role after returning to the team last week, but that remains to be seen (11 carries for 44 yards). Kerwynn Williams was the guy who most expected to take over, he ran for 22 yards from 9 carries, and Andre Ellington was mainly the pass catching back, with 11 from 2 carries in the run but only 12 yards from 3 catches in the air. I would expect his role to increase, but again, it’s all a little up in the air and a bit of a crap shoot really! One person you can get odds for, at a very big price is Elijhaa Penny. He’s mainly a special team guy, but apparently they’ve got a play for him near the goal line that nearly got called last game, however a penalty stopped it happening. Obviously it’s a ridiculous long shot, especially as he’s yet to touch the ball on offense in his career… but you can get 20/1 on Unibet if you want a dart throw.
I can’t even give you a tight end to look for either as Jermaine Gresham is questionable as always, Ifeanyi Momah made a big catch for them last week, and Troy Niklas was also involved in the passing game.
The Cowboys come into the game off a humbling defeat at Mile High to the Broncos who shut them down almost entirely, losing 42-17. Zeke Elliott, last years leading rusher went for a shockingly bad 8 yards from 9 attempts. Their leading rusher in that game was actually Dak Prescott with 24 yards. He threw for 238 yards and 2 TDs, but also 2 INTs against one of the leagues best defences. And unfortunately for him he faces another solid D tonight.
Despite the fact that he never really shines against top cornerbacks (who does) they constantly targeted Dez Bryant last week, he had 16 balls thrown his way, catching 7 for 59 yards and a touchdown. I seemingly have to say it every week as they’re always on TV, but I don’t care for Dez Bryant, they can keep targeting him, but I’ll be looking towards Cole Beasley in the slot, he’ll have an easier task against one of the other cornerbacks, he and Terrance Williams both got 4 targets last week, Beasleys were the higher value gaining himself 33 yards opposed to Williams 17. The Big old man of Dallas, Jason Witten was the most targeted for the second week in a row, and he scored again as well. He’s now had 17 receptions in the first 2 weeks and seems to be Daks favourite this year!
As alluded to above, Zeke is really the only guy in the running game, and despite the fact that he gave up on the team last week, and had an awful performance, he should be able to bounce back tonight. It’s not something I want to bet on, but quality always shines through, right!? It does seem like all the legal stuff is getting to him and the team, it is a lot for a young stupid lad to take on, so it’s not a huge surprise.
A tough one for betting as frankly I have no idea what the result of this game will be! But surely it’s got to be Jason Witten again? I’m also looking at whomever is opposite Dez as they’ll have the easier time. Terrance Williams is at 37.5 yards (4/5) and Cole Beasley is at 47.5 (10/11) Beasley will get more targets, but they’ll likely be shorter range.
- Witten anytime TD – 2/1 (365) – 2pts
- Dak o20.5 rush yards – 5/6 (PP) – 2pts
- Elijhaa Penny anytime – 20/1 (Unibet) – 0.5pt
After the weekend I had, 4.5 points outlay.
Good Luck if you’re still with me!