Nice 3/1 winner on TNF for us in another week that most people got wrong. Maybe worth avoiding TNF completely forever… Seems to be all home teams recently, but surely it’ll be Seattle next week?! – So I’ve got a busy weekend, I am hoping for a little time on Sunday morning to get some decent player prop bets and get stuff sorted. If not, then enjoy your weekend!
Atlanta at Carolina
The last 2 representatives of the NFC in Superbowls go head-to-head in what should be an entertaining game. Both teams have struggled to overcomes losses in the big one, the Panthers seems to have recovered after a shocker last season, but they just traded away Kelvin Benjamin. Apparently that helps the run game? A run game that has been woeful this season. It should help Devin Funchess, but who else is there in the pass game? Sheperd? Curtis Samuel? I don’t know. The Falcons are actually gaining a lot of yardage but OC Sarkesian then seems to get too cute in the redzone so they’re not converting too well and could realistically have had a losing record by now, I do however, think it will click soon enough for the Falcons and this could be the start of a decent run for them – ATLANTA and as they’re underdogs, obviously I like them ATS as well. – Cameron Artis-Payne is interesting at 12s on 365, he was 17/1 on PP, but they’ve taken it down for now, have 0.5pt at 12s on 365, and if you really want, he’s 500/1 for 2 or more on PP!
Indianapolis at Houston
Another divisional clash, and one that shows perfectly what a difference the QB makes to a franchise! The Colts haven’t had their guy all season and they’re horrible, although I do give credit to Jacoby Brissett who has done as well as can be expected with what he’s got. Marlon Mack should really get more of the ball but Chuck Pagano seems desperate to cash that “first coach fired” slip that he must have piled his cash on. Jack Doyle is the guy to look for here, he’s had 25 catches in the last 3 games. The Texans look like they may have their franchise guy in DeShaun Watson who has been setting records all over the shop, he became the first QB EVER to pass for 400, get 4 TDs and rush for 50yds in a single game last week against what was supposed to be a good defence in Seattle. This week he faces on of the worst defences in the league. It should be a high scoring affair, and Will Fuller will probably keep up his 64 TD pace with another couple. HOUSTON. The spread is huge though so I’ll be avoiding it with a lean towards the Colts covering it. – So this didn’t age well! I still expect the Texans to win, but my god, this game got so much less interesting with the news that Watson is now out for the season. Look for a price on Jack Doyle. 6/4 is useless. Take anything over 2/1 when they come out. You can get 9/4 on Doyle from bet365 – 2pts
Cincinnati at Jacksonville
This isn’t going to be pretty for my Bengals. They were a horrible mess last week against a poor Colts pass rush, now they’re facing the best defence in the league. If Andy Dalton completes the game it will be an achievement. They are going to destroy him. The Bengals O-Line is the reason they don’t have a winning record. It has ruined their season and they can’t even get a run game going because of it. I would expect a lot of weird formations here from them tbh, they have no other way of doing anything. The Jags should welcome back Leonard Fournette, and he’s about all they’ll need to win this game. They are 4.5 point favourites and that’s getting higher so get on as soon as possible – JAGUARS – I can’t see how the Bengals score points. Look for total sacks in this game. Money as flooded in the Jags, now 5.5 favourites. Shit. Missed the boat on this one.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans
Oh Tampa, how you make me doubt all my “knowledge” of the NFL. Tampa have been useless this year, they have the third worst defence according to football outsiders DVOA, one that’s allowing tons to opposing QBs and WRs. They will use Doug Martin a lot and with Jameis carrying a shoulder injury probably won’t be too effective in the passing game either, although who knows, he is capable of putting up 400 yards on occasion. The Saints are relying a lot more on the run game than they have done before and it’s working well for them despite Mark Ingram fumbling twice last week, that could mean more Kamara but they should keep with Ingram. Remarkably Drew Brees didn’t throw a TD pass last week. That was only the second time in nearly 8 years that he has failed to add one at home. He’ll get 4 this week. Trust me. The SAINTS are winning this and I am leaning towards them covering the spread, actually it’s dropped under 7 points now, so I will probably go on that. Lean to the Unders, but last time I went for Unders on the Saints it was a 90pt game.
LA Rams at NY Giants
The Giants have issues. For the second time in less than 4 weeks they have suspended one of their better defensive players, with Janoris Jenkins being forced to sit out this week. They should however have a player in WR room who can catch a ball though. Sterling Shepard should return to help out Evan Engram who has done it all himself the last couple of games. The Rams have have nearly broken their points total from last season already in 7 games. It’s amazing what a coach and a couple of new players can do to a team. They look great, Gurley has the run game ticking, the pass game is going well with Kupp and Woods leading it. This week COULD be a good spot for Sammy Watkins though who has had a little moan about his targets, without Jack Rabbit (jenkins) there he should have it easier than he has. RAMS and a lean to them covering the spread as well. Always look for the tight ends vs the Giants. Unfortunately they have 2 who have been involved. Higbee is the more likely at 9/2 and Everett is 6/1. 2pts on Higbee anytime TD – 9/2 (365) – 2pts. You may want to wait, but that’s a good price.
Denver at Philadelphia
Well well well, the sharps were right. They were all over the Eagles win totals at the start of the season. 2 Solid lines, a young improving QB, some pass catchers who can actually catch and they are #1 in our Power rankings (link) and look like Superbowl contenders. They added Jay Ajayi on deadline day, and while I don’t think he’ll see much work this week, I’d imagine he’ll share with Blount after their bye next week. The Denver pass rush is the only thing good about this team and they need it to get to Wentz if they want to stay in this game at all. They have Brock Osweiler starting at QB which is something no-one wanted to ever see again, except AJ Derby who scored at a big price last week and should see more targets from Brock this week. Could be a lot of sacks in this one, but you’ve got to take the EAGLES – Denver aren’t good vs the tight end, but Ertz is a little banged up, not worth a bet as the favourite. Devontae Booker – 11/1 (PP) – 1pt – They’ve been mixing him in recently, and I heard a quote that if he’d been fully fit at the start of the season he would have been the #1 RB. He scored last week and 11s is too high.
Baltimore at Tennessee
Alex Collins. Alex Collins. Alex Collins. I’ve said his name for weeks and he’s yet to get into the end zone. He will this week… I think. That’s about it for Baltimore. I hate them, they’re so dour. The Titans return from their bye with hopefully a fitter Mariota, if he can move in the pocket then this team is a different prospect. They should also welcome back Corey Davis who got 10 receptions in the one game he’s played this year, he should be the catalyst this team needs to get going, although playing this Ravens defence won’t be easy for any of the Titans offense. – TITANS – such is my dis-taste for the Ravens I would have expected my record for calling their games to be worse than 3-4. Not too bad. – Delanie Walker might not play. His backup is Jonnu Smith who has already scored this season, Ravens aren’t great vs the tight end, I like 6/1 on him… Could be worth waiting till there’s more prices available though. Still a best of 6/1 on Jonnu Smith (365) – 1pt
Arizona at San Francisco
Oh dear. Drew Stanton vs CJ Beathard. Although any excuse to bust out the greatest gif in the history of football is good by me. Unfortunately for Stanton and the Cardinals, that’s the best thing he’s ever done. The 49ers may not get Beat Hard this week as I don’t think the Cardinals will be able to move the ball well, it should be a Peterson game due to this. The 49ers. Well.. Carlos Hyde? Honestly avoid this match. But as I have to pick a winner. SAN FRANCISCO –
no TD scorer bets here
Washington at Seattle
The Seahawks finally got an upgrade to their offensive line which has been truly offensive for years. If Russell Wilson ever gets to play without running for his life just imagine how good he could be. The ‘Hawks have started their yearly run for the playoffs already and Wilson is the leader of the charge. Paul Richardson has been benefiting from this with the TDs, but Lockett and Baldwin have also been targeted a lot. The Redskins are still hit with a lot of injuries and I just don’t think they’ll be able to keep pace with Seattle. Vernon Davis will be the man to look for in the anytime markets, he’s the last man standing in the TE room and has been playing well even with Reed in there. SEATTLE the spread is a touch too high for me though, if it drops to 6.5 then maybe a go. – Wait for prices on Vernon Davis, if you get over 5/2 then go for it. Currently a best of 9/4 which isn’t good enough for me. May be worth taking his yards too as he’s had a couple of huge runs this year.
Kansas City at Dallas
There’s no Zeke. Finally. Or is there? … Hopefully all the appeals are over. The Cowboys will probably keep to gameplan and use one RB heavily, that seems like it will be Alfred Morris much to my chagrin as a Darren McFadden owner in various leagues. But I think it’s more likely it’ll be a hot hand approach, McFadden is the better pass catcher too, I’m rambling – Don’t bet on either. You can definitely pass on the Chiefs though so we should probably see a Dez or… deep dive, a Ryan Switzer game if Cole Beasley is down with concussion. The Chiefs snapped their losing streak last week with a good defensive display. They should fare well in this game as well, and I’d be tempted with the overs even without Zeke playing… BUT it’s the highest total of the week, so I’ll give it a miss. It’s not easy going into Dallas and getting the win but… CHIEFS – Fuck you Zeke. Just take the god damn punishment. So… Zeke is playing again. I still prefer the Chiefs. – Ryan Switzer – 12/1 (365) – 0.5pt. So a bit of a longshot as mentioned above he could get some action and the Chiefs defence hasn’t been great this year. May be worth waiting for PP again as they’ve taken the anytime prices down and have been high on some so far.
Oakland at Miami
Jay Cutler should be back. The one-week Matt Moore failure should be over. Jay Ajayi has gone, so it’s Kenyan Drake? Damien Williams? Who cares. This could be a high scoring game, neither team really has a defence. Despite the fact that the Dolphins somehow have a winning record, they have been awful. Could be a good week for Cooper/Crabtree/Carr. I believe they’ve been over in Florida for the week training so the West-East thing shouldn’t matter. RAIDERS and to cover the spread. Apologies, but this game does nothing for me.
Detroit at Green Bay
Green Bay are underdogs at home again! They’ve had the bye week to figure something out with Hundley, he went the entire first quarter without a completion in his debut and finished with less than 100 yards passing. I don’t think that will happen again. I’m expecting 250 from him, probably an INT or 2 still, but 3 TDs to even it out, oh and 50 odd yards on the ground… They did get the running game going with an actual running back last game, Aaron “the welshman” Jones topping 100 yards, whether he keeps the workload with Ty Montgomery healed up a week more remains to be seen. He should do, with Ty as the third down back, but who knows. The Lions should have won for me last week but just couldn’t get it done in the redzone, they had 500 yards of offense and no TDs. Frustrating. That was at home, in a dome, this will be a different occasion! Detroit has only own once in 27 attempts at Lambeau, in 2015. GREEN BAY
Ladbrokes and Coral can get fucked. I shan’t be mentioning their names again on this blog unless it’s to slag them off, their prices are shocking. 2/5 For an anytime Td scorer?! I don’t care who it is, that’s just plain ridiculous.
Good luck for the weekend, hopefully I’ll be able to get some prices up over the weekend for some anytime scorers or some yard lines that jump out at me.
- Jack Doyle anytime – 9/4 (365) – 2pts
- Cameron Artis-Payne anytime – 12/1 (365) – 0.5pt
- Tyler Higbee anytime TD – 9/2 (365) – 2pts
- Devontae Booker anytime TD – 11/1 (PP) – 1pt
- Jonnu Smith anytime TD – 6/1 (PP) – 1pt
- Ryan Switzer anytime TD – 12/1 (365) – 0.5pt
7 points outlay so far, will hope to get some yardage bets up tomorrow morning.