I am glad that I didn’t tip anything for the Monday night game as it wouldn’t have one, I was looking at the likes of Lance Kendricks at 5/1ish for Green Bay. I think it’s safe to say we should be avoiding Green Bay players from now on until they prove otherwise as they’re just not getting it done without Rodgers there. The Lions were impressive though and Matthew Stafford has had 300+ yards in consecutive games since coming out of their bye week, they face Cleveland this weekend which should give him a good chance of making it 3 games in a row.
Avoiding that game meant that we finished the week 8 points in profit, a welcome return to the black after a couple of poor weeks!
Thursday night is here again, and once again there’s a team who should win here. So how have I been getting it so badly wrong? Well, the last 3 weeks I have picked road teams, it’s always tough travelling on a short week, even if on paper you have the better roster and form. So surely I wouldn’t be stupid enough to take an away team again?!
Seattle Seahawks (-6) @ Arizona Cardinals o/u – 40.5
The Seattle Seahawks somehow contrived to lose a game last week that they should have won, they had by far the better numbers throughout the game, they outgained the Redskins by around 150 yards, but 3 missed field goal kicks from Blair Walsh meant that they lost in the last few minutes by 3 points.
Russell Wilson did all he could to get the game won, throwing for 297 yards and adding a further 77 on the ground, he comes alive in the second half of the season and the hope that the newly acquired Duane Brown at left tackle solidifies a horrible offensive line should help him reach new heights this year, he is on track to throw the ball more times than any other season in his career this year.
His favourite target is Doug Baldwin, who has received 10+ targets in each of the previous 3 games, he finished last week with 108 yards and a TD and he should be able to avoid Patrick Peterson for the majority of the game tonight which will give him a better chance of keeping up his run, he’s also got pretty favourable stats against the Cardinals in previous games. Paul Richardson got a knock in training this week, he’s a touchdown guy, he doesn’t have a huge amount of targets per game, but when he does they’re usually high value targets! If he doesn’t go then Tyler Lockett should have a good game, he’s pacier than most of the Cardinals secondary and Wilson likes him. If Richardson is out (he’s questionable at the moment which doesn’t fill me with hope) then a look at Amara Darboh could be tempting, especially at 16/1 on PP, he hasn’t had a whole lot of targets though so is a bit of a dart throw! Tanner McEvoy is the other option in the passing game he’s 12/1 on PP, and at least has TDs in his career.
More likely than the last 2 names there would be Luke Willlllllllllllllllson, the second tight end for the Seahawks. The Cardinals are exploitable in the middle of the field and if he’s in more due to the absence of Richardson then 15/2 is a good price for him, he scored last week. Jimmy Graham is the main Tight end target though and has been having a good season, and I would argue that 15/8 is a pretty good price on him as well actually, having scored 4 in his last 4 games.
Their running game has been a stinking mess all season, and this week it looks like it will be in the hands of Thomas Rawls. I love Rawls, but he’s been hugely disappointing this season and this is a tough matchup, but with Eddie Lacy out he’s in for the heaviest workload of the RBs. CJ Prosise looks like he may start the game, he’s also a favourite of mine but just hasn’t been able to stay fit for more than 5 mins of a game this season so really isn’t trustworthy in a betting sense, if he manages to play a full game then he’ll be worth a look next week as he’s a playmaker… speaking of playmaker JD McKissic has been one this year on a very limited workload, again I won’t be trusting him with my, or anyone elses, money but he’s explosive and a good pass catcher so usually gets some ball in most games so far this season.
Drew Stanton … As much as I’d love to post that GIF again, he’ll be playing for the rest of the year, I don’t want to wear it out! He had an adequate game last week which was all that was needed against the 49ers, 201 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT. He spread the ball around as well, his TDs went to the tight end (a new QBs usual go-to) and Jaron Brown, his 1 catch of the day for 3 yards. This will be an infinitely more difficult task for him so I’d be surprised to see him as efficient tonight.
The whole gameplan for the Cardinals now seems to rely on Adrian “all day” Peterson running all night, he has the most rush attempts of his career on Sunday, at age 32 he had 37 carries for 159 yards against one of the worst rush defences in the league. The big question for me is whether he can do that again on a short week? That remains to be seen, the gamescript will more than likely mean that they won’t be able to run him that much this week anyway, this Seattle team is infinitely better than the Niners.
The passing game? Well it’s Larry Fitzgerald. He just doesn’t age, last week he had 5 catches for 70 yards and a TD, and he should be the most highly targeted player again for the Cardinals. It’s tough to predict who else there is with only 15 completions from Stanton last week, but with a third of them being to Fitz, I’m confident in saying he’ll be the #1 while Stanton is in. Gresham, Peterson and Ellington all got 2 each then 1 a piece for the rest of them. While Fitz has only scored 3 TDs this season, they have all been at home, 1 in each of their 3 home games so far, although Dallas, Tampa and San Fran are 3 of the worst pass defences in the league…
Again this is a far harder test than they faced against the 0-8 49ers last week. Seattle will want to bounce back and even (probably) without Earl Thomas they are a solid unit who will want to show they’re still the legion of boom on primtime, in lime. It Rhymes. Chime.
So Paddypower/Betfair have knocked it out of the park on Anytime TD scorers tonight, we’ll have to see if this is a sign of things to come, but it’s good to see as TD scorer odds have been pretty skinny all season. An example – Jermaine Gresham (scored last week) he’s a best price 9/2 (5.50) elsewhere… he’s 9/1 (10.00) on PP, double the odds. – Luke Willson – 15/2 (8.50) on PP, mainly around 3/1 (4.00) elsewhere, although 365 are offering 5s (6.00) … Oh and Coral/Ladbrokes taking the piss again with a shocking 11/5 on the same player. Horrible.
The harder bit is figuring out what to back with so many tempting prices out there now! Even the shorter priced players are pretty temptingly priced at PP tonight, if they offer over EVENS on Gronk on Sunday then it’s well worth taking.
My shortlist for TD scorers is Jimmy Graham 15/8, Larry Fitzgerald 13/5, Luke Willson 15/2, Jermaine Gresham 9/1, Amara Darboh 16/1. Seattle Defence at 7/1.
Russell Wilson o29.5 rush yards looks good to from Skybet, he ran for 77 yards last week, and the Cardinals play a man scheme which should mean space for him to rush when needed. He’s beaten that line in 5 of the 8 games they’ve played so far this season.
I may be a glutton for punishment, but Thomas Rawls getting 40 yards is tempting too. I won’t be backing it, I just can’t trust him or any of the “running” game for Seattle, but I’m convinced it will blow up one week this season!
I am leaning towards the Seahawks covering the 6 point spread, but my record on Thursday nights is frankly horrible. So I will stay away from that.
So much to choose from, whatever I pick will probably be wrong.
- Jimmy Graham anytime TD – 15/8 (2.86) – 2pts
- Luke Willson anytime TD – 15/2 (8.50) – 1pt
- Jermaine Gresham anytime TD – 9/1 (10.00) – 0.5pt
- Seahawks D/ST anytime TD – 7/1 (8.00) – 0.5pt
4 point total outlay. All on Paddypower/Betfair. As the younguns nowadays seem to use decimal odds a lot more I’ll try and start doing the decimals in brackets!
Good Luck if you’re on anything tonight, Skybet have their 3 for 2 RaB as they do every Thursday if you want a little more interest, I should be getting up for this one with my day off work tomorrow, so hopefully it’ll be better than the 6-6 thriller they put up in the fixture last season!
Adam.
Oh, one final note, if you win anything this weekend then try and make a donation to the Royal British Legion with it being remembrance day on Sunday. Remember those who fought for our freedoms. – http://www.britishlegion.org.uk/get-involved/ways-to-give/make-a-donation/ I will be plugging it again on Sunday of course!
TouchdownTips 
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