Week 10 – SNF – Briefs and Tips. #SaluteToService

A couple of good days in a row, 11 points profit from them, which we will hopefully carry into the big day on Sunday night.

If you do win anything this weekend please spare a moment to consider donating to the Royal British Legion on remembrance Sunday – Donate if you wish to do so, I don’t do a whole lot for charity but for them and the Haemophilia Society I do try and give a little each year.

The #Salutetoservice hashtag to donate expires tonight, the NFL donates 5 bucks for each time it’s used! I’m not sure if it works on retweets though!

New Orleans at Buffalo – Sky Sports – 1800 match.

Two of the surprise teams in the league in my eyes. I was expecting another 7-9 season for the Saints but they’ve made me look foolish by winning 6 in a row. They have done it by leaning on the run game, Ingram has looked great, and Kamara is putting himself in the running for OROY (10/1 at Ladbrokes/Coral, with Hunt being limited by his team, that could actually be worth a look) He has looked great and re-paid the faith shown in him by Peyton. Their defence has been a laughing stock for a few season, but has been killing the opposition this year. They look good! It’s a tough call. You shouldn’t really take Brees on the road, outside, but as they’re not as reliant on him this year, it may be a moot point, Ted Ginn was a name I was looking for on the anytime front, but he’s a best of 23/10 which isn’t bad, but not as good as I was hoping, Mark Ingram has his yards set at 59.5 on Skybet which is 15 yards less than Paddypower have it. Since AP left them he’s beaten that line in all 4 games, so it looks a good bet! – Mark Ingram o59.5 rushing yards, you can actually get 4/1 on o100 rush yards on Skybet if you fancy – Buffalo have outdone my expectations too, even trading for Kelvin Benjamin with a look towards the play-offs. Tyrod is proving himself a worthwhile QB in the league and Shady McCoy (ignoring last week) has done all that’s been asked of him so far on the ground and through the air, he has been finding the paint recently too – SportingBet have him at 19/10 which looks badly mis-priced, he’s below evens everywhere else, don’t take it anywhere else, he should score, but I wouldn’t take him at odds on – They had him at that… It looks like Charles Clay could well be back which shits on anything Nick O’Leary related, not that I was going for anything here anyway, but still it’s worth noting in case you were thinking of going for him again.

  • Mark Ingram o59.5 rushing yards – 10/11 (Skybet) – 2pts
  • LeSean McCoy anytime TD – 19/10 (SportingBet) – 2pts

Green Bay at Chicago

Oh dear Green Bay. They join the list of teams who should have been good, but are now dead for the season (Giants, Bengals, Texans, it’s a sorry list) I thought Hundley could do it, but apparently only a select few can avoid defenders and throw pinpoint passes down the field. Hundley hasn’t managed it so far, and the loss of Bulaga for the season is a further hit for the team. The Bears are rested off a bye and have looked great on defence, especially at home. They will do what they’ve done all season, run Howard into the ground and keep it tight on the other side of the ball. I have been confident in the Packers getting over it the last 2 games, not this week though, 5 points favourites for the Bears?! I need to get my head around the Packers without Rodgers – DA BEARS – I was looking at the replacements for Zach Miller, Dion Sims is 9/2 and Adam Shaheen is 14/1, both on Paddypower. They don’t throw the ball much, but when they do it’s usually to the tight end! They’re both decent prices and have both scored this season already.

Cleveland at Detroit

Not much to write for the Browns, although the tiniest bit of hope may be on the Horizon, no, not Josh Gordon who is allowed to train again, Corey Coleman has been removed from IR and is back training this week. The Lions won convincingly in Lambeau on MNF this week with Stafford going over 300 for the second time in a row, he seems to have found his form. The Browns aren’t going to cause any problems, and while I think they’ll get killed, 12.5 points is a tough handicap to go either way on – LIONS – So apparently Eric Ebron (10/3) got his job back last week as the starting tight end. I have no idea why. He’s shocking, which is very frustrating as the tight end usually does well against the Browns. The run game however does not, so I wouldn’t go for anything on the ground from the Lions. Darren Fells has been much more effective for the Lions, he’s at 5/1, again a little tempting. Marvin Jones has been on fire recently, he’s a best of 5/4 anytime, yards set around the same as Golden Tate at mid-60s. One of them two will beat their yards, In theory it’ll be Jones, but I won’t be taking either.

Pittsburgh at Indianapolis

The Colts beat Tom Savage last week as TY Hilton had one of his good games. He doesn’t usually follow that up and this week goes against one of the best defences in the league. It seems the way to beat the Colts is to stop TY and Jack Doyle who has had double digits again last week. The Steelers are rested and may have Martavis Bryant back in this week after his hissy fit. I’d argue they’re better without him, but he is a talented guy when his head is in the game. Either way, the whole Steelers team goes through Antonio Brown and Lev Bell with a sprinkling of WR2/3. They won’t have any issue against a horrible Colts defence. STEELERS – Only a lean towards them covering 10 pts as it’s them on the road and they f-up against teams they should comfortably beat quite often. Jack Doyle has been getting around 10 targets a game on average in the last 4, his yards are at 39.5 at 5/6 on Paddypower.

LA Chargers at Jacksonville

This could be my favourite matchup of the week. For some reason I really like Philip Rivers and the Chargers, he’s got such a weird throwing style and if he screws up he comes back firing the next play/series. This is a horrible matchup for the Chargers though against the best pass defence in the league. They should be able to create something on the ground though, i’m hoping after a bye that Melvin Gordon is healthier, I love Hunter Henry too, hopefully they’ll throw the ball to him this week. When he is involved they win. Fournette should be back for the Jags as long as he’s been a good boy this week, and Blake Bortles hasn’t actually been that horrible recently, Marquis Lee has been the beneficiary of Bortles up-tick. Actually a tough one to call. All logic says the Jags, but they’re still the Jags, so I’m choosing heart over head – CHARGERS

NY Jets at Tampa Bay

A high-scoring stinkfest. The revenge game of all revenge games.  McCown vs Fitzpatrick! The Bucs, my pre-season Superbowl bet, and the Jets my pre-season bottom of the world bet face eachother, and prove that “we” know nothing. I think this will cruise over the total, I’m expecting high scoring mistake filled fun low quality football. With Mike Evans out keep an eye on Chris Godwin’s anytime price (6/1). It could go either way, I need the Jets to lose as I’m on them winning u5.5 games this season and they’re worryingly close – BUCS – I like the overs in this game, set at 43.5 at the moment. – Chris Godwin – 6/1 (PP/365) – 1pt

Cincinnati at Tennessee

The Bengals are awful. They were a stinking horrible sham of a team last week against the Jags and the frustration got to AJ Green, usually calm and mild mannered his UFC moves gave me a chuckle and showed how pissed he is with the situation there at the moment, luckily he’s avoided suspension somehow. This is actually a good matchup for Cinci, they’re against a non-common opponent, a poor pass rush and defence, and have been better on the road. The Titans are frustrating too although have been winning their easy schedule, Delanie Walker (21/10 Unibet) should have a day as the Bengals aren’t good vs Tight end, Mariota should be fitter. I may be the only one in the world, and it may be a homer pick – BENGALS

Minnesota at Washington

The Vikings should welcome back a healthy Stefon Diggs, and have Teddy two-hands back as #2 QB for this game, the reception he gets should be incredible after all he’s been through it will be amazing just to see him out there again, they have a good homefield advantage and a cracking defense. A lot for the Redskins will depend on the health of their offensive line, hopefully for them they’ll get at least one of their crippled players back. Josh Doctson is getting more snaps recently and seems to have ousted Terrelle Pryor. They’ll need to get a run game going which with the OL injuries has been a struggle. I’m not even gonna call this one, it’s too close. I would usually lean to the home team, but without half of their O-Line against this Vikings pass rush that could be silly.

Houston at LA Rams

The highest scoring team in the league who have grown week on week on defence, host a backup QB who co mpleted less than 50% of his passes last week. Aaron Donald and co. should have a good day against a pretty poor Houston offensive line. Nuk Hopkins will still get the workload though, he caught 6 of 16 targets last week and you’d think it will be around that many targets again this. The Rams are loving life at the moment and spreading the ball around, Watkins, Woods, Kupp, Higbee, Everett are all valid targets in the passing game, Todd Gurley leads RBs in fantasy scoring. They’re just a very tidy, fun, well coached team. Sean McVay is great and could spark a host of younger fresh thinking head coaches in the future – RAMS – It’s a very high spread, but I’d still lean to the Rams covering. Surely there’s got to be some value here somewhere… Robert Woods… his line is 50.5 on Skybet, he’s beaten that the last 4 games and been reliable all season long, in fact he’s only been under that line twice this season.

Dallas at Atlanta – Sky Sports – 2125

ZEKE IS OUT!!!!!!! Maybe. Probably… This looks like it could finally be it. But who knows, the American legal system seems quite a shambles frankly, he’ll probably just go to the next state along and moan to that court. God knows. Anyway, Alf Morris should be the starting RB for the Cowboys with McFadden and Rod Smith expected to mix in. Check prices on all of them. I’ll eat humble pie and admit that Dak is a quality QB. He may be without Dez Bryant though, so check on Bryce Butler prices (7/1) – turns out that Terrance Williams is a go. Atlanta should have won last week, Julio dropped the easiest catch he’ll have all season. It’s been a frustrating year for them and seems like lady luck levelling itself out after everything went right for them last year, they are actually still one of the biggest yard-gainers in the league, they’re just not converting their chances, Mo Sanu . They haven’t been great at their new home this season either, Falcons are 0-5 ATS in recent weeks. The Zeke news (if it stays true) has made this very tough – FALCONS

engram-ftr-gettyjpg_1a0xyml4qxqa01nt05lsuxg55i

NY Giants at San Francisco

The Toilet Bowl… Who will start at QB?! Will we get a Davis Webb vs CJ Beathard dream matchup? Either way it will be Engram and Shepard for the Giants. Orleans Darkwa should have a good game on the ground and the Niners stink there. Look for Engram anytime and 2/3+ markets. The 49ers are beaten up and their tight end stopped is out as well. In fact, back every tight end in this game. The Giants have conceded at least 1 TD to the tight end in every game this year. Hopefully we’ll get a good price on Celek for the 49ers. I’d love to say that San Fran is getting it’s first win of the season, but they’re so beaten up on defence I just can’t back them to even be able to stop the Giants with no offense. GIANTS – Ridiculously this could be one of the more entertaining games of the weekend and a fantasy football gold mine! Evan Engram Anytime TD – 15/8 (PP) – NAP – 4pt, – 2+ TD – 16/1 (365) – 1pt and 3+ – 150/1 (PP) – 0.5pt has to by my main bet. It’s between him and Sterling Shepard, who is also well priced at 23/10. For the 49ers you’ve probably got to look for Marquis Goodwin (13/5 on unibet) and Aldrick Robinson – 7/1 (PP) – 1pt. As for Celek at Tight end… He may well score as tight ends always do, but 13/4 isn’t tempting for me… without much other choice at tight end, I will be having a little sniff on Kyle Juszcksuksckskscczzzcxdscscchuk at 18/1 on PP – 0.5pt

New England at Denver

The Patriots coming off a bye vs a Denver team led by Brock Osweiler who got embarrassed by the Eagles last week. Mile high isn’t usually an easy place to go, but the Broncos are a state at the moment and I can’t see them getting it together this week. Devontae Booker is the man I’ll be looking for with the Broncos. If you can get anywhere near evens on Gronk, take it. He’ll score. As for everyone else, maybe Rex Burkhead? He’s been mixing in a lot more since returning from injury. PATRIOTS – You can get over Evens on Rob Gronkowski – 5/4 (PP) – NB – 3pt

 

So summary for the day…

  • Mark Ingram o59.5 rushing yards – 10/11 (Skybet) – 2pts
  • LeSean McCoy anytime TD – 19/10 (SportingBet) – 2pts (Already gone)
  • Evan Engram Anytime TD – 15/8 (PP) – NAP – 4pt, – 2+ TD – 16/1 (365) – 1pt and 3+ – 150/1 (PP) – 0.5pt
  • Aldrick Robinson Anytime TD – 7/1 (PP) – 1pt
  • Kyle Juszcksuksckskscczzzcxdscscchuk Anytime TD – 18/1 (PP) – 0.5pt
  • Rob Gronkowski Anytime TD – 5/4 (PP) – NB – 3pt
  • NAP/NB Double – (PP) – 2pts
  • Jets (43.5) and 49ers (42) games OVERs Double – 2.64/1 – 2pts
  • Chris Godwin Anytime TD – 6/1 (PP/365) – 1pt

Total outlay – 17pts

I was also tempted to give a 6pt teaser a go… basically it gives you an extra 6 points on the handicap on your selections, for example, extending the Colts to +16 and the Browns to +16.5, but halving the odds… taking that double to 1.83 (£10 returns £18.33) So obviously not huge odds, but a hell of a lot more likely to win. It seems to only be available on Bet365: On the betslip, click the drop down menu which will be defaulted to Standard and you should have the teaser option, you can then change to 6, 6.5 or 7pts if you want. – It’s not for me this week as I don’t have the funds to stake enough to make it worthwhile, but I’ll keep an eye to see how it would have done!

Best of Luck if you follow anything, hopefully it’s given you some ideas!

Adam.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Create a free website or blog at WordPress.com.

Up ↑