Ah thanks giving, the day that the yanks give thanks for all they’ve got, get together, sit down have a turkey dinner, WITH STUFFING (apparently that’s a once a year thing over there) and then get pissed up and watch football all evening. For this side of the pond, well, some of us partake in mealtime, but the football is a definite for us!
A good Case for a Vikings victory…
Vikings (-2.5) @ Lions – o/u – 45.5
The Detroit Lions always play at home for Thanksgiving and this year they play host to a huge NFC North clash. The Vikings are leading the division and keeping a little pressure on the Eagles at the top of the conference. Zimmer and the OC Shurmur deserve a lot of plaudits for what they’ve done with this team after they lost their starting QB and RB during the season, they and in particular QB Case Keenum have produced arguably the best WR duo in the league with Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. Thielen is the only player in the league with at least 5 catches in each game this year (possibly Landry as well…) and showed his speed last week on a breakaway TD. Latavius Murray seems to be taking over goal line carries now that he’s fit although McKinnon is still getting the ball on passing downs and actually had more snaps than Murray last week, add that to the best scoring defence in the NFC and you’ve got a potential Superbowl team. No team has ever made the Superbowl in their hometown.
The Lions have played very well since their bye week, they put up 400 yards on the Steelers in the only defeat they’ve had since then, and have actually won all their divisional games this season including at Minnesota. Golden Tate has been great in the slot, and with Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay providing pace on the outside they’ve got a good passing attack. Last week Theo Riddick looked the better runner on the ground, so it will be interesting to see how they deal with that situation! It looks likely that Xavier Rhodes will be on Marvin Jones for the most part which severely limits him, but could prove good for Kenny G.
- Adam Thielen receptions – over 5 – 5/6 (PP) – 2pt
- Latavius Murray and Kenny Golladay both to score – 9/2 (Skybet) – 1pt
It’s a really tough call to make, but I can’t pick against the Vikings with the way they’ve been playing. But away on a short week I can’t take them ATS. I was tempted with Vikings to win by 1-13 at 8/5 on Paddypower and if they win I can’t see it being by 2 TDs or more!
All Rivers lead to a … Win?
Chargers (-1.5) @ Cowboys – o/u – 46.5
Another intriguing clash here with the Chargers coming off a huge win against a “footballgod-punished” Bills team. Rivers connected with Keenan Allen all day long with him finally having a blowup game. It was the first game without Hunter Henry featured that they actually won and they have played a lot more 11 personnel since Mike Williams came back from injury which means 1 TE at a time leading to more chances for Gates to extend his TD record. Austin Ekeler is still the RB2 in this team but he’s been getting involved a lot recently and looked good again in scoring his 3rd in 2 games last week. Check for prices on him and Gates (HH – 12/5, Gates – 5/1). – Bold shout, but I actually think the Chargers could make the play-offs and may even challenge for the division. I can’t be taking Gordon yards, and while I love Keenan Allen, especially after last week but I don’t trust him this season either. Annoyingly the Chargers still aren’t relying on Hunter Henry as they did last year so I don’t want to risk him anytime either.
The Cowboys will be desperate to get Tyron Smith back, they’ve been crap without him and Bosa and Ingram will be licking their lips at this matchup with or without him (he is back in training and seems likely to play tonight). Obviously they’re without Zeke again, and Sean Lee looks like he’ll be out as well. Dak has come back to the pack without Smith there, apparently he isn’t the second coming of football jesus and having a solid O-Line and running game is quite helpful, I will admit to him being quite good though. The Chargers not only boast the best pass rush duo in the league (according to most people and PFF stats) but a good secondary as well and Dez struggles against good cornerbacks, with that in mind I would consider u67.5 yards at BetVictor (Well, I would consider it then realise I can’t bet with them because I won £40 from them. Arseholes) but u65.5 on 365 at 10/11 is acceptable as well. Alfred Morris ran well last week and his yards are set a lot lower on PP than elsewhere at 57.5 rather than 72.5 on skybet, all the way up to 77.5 on 365, admittedly it is 4/6 rather than 10/11, but it’s a big difference and he should be able to go over that line.
The Chargers are going to ruin Thanksgiving for Jerry. Which makes me happy. – I’ve erred a little from this, and with the Cowboys getting points at home I’m tempted to back them, but ultimately, again I can’t back either on the handicap. If I was forced I’d probably take the Chargers by 1-13 at 9/5 on PP. If Tyron Smith is out again then o5.5 sacks at 5/4 on 365 is a good bet, but I think he’ll be in.
- Alfred Morris o57.5 rush yards – 4/6 (PP) – 2pts
- Each to team score a TD and an FG in each half – 13/2 (Skybet) – 1pt
It’s pronounced “Crow-derrrrr”
Giants (+7) @ Redskins – o/u – 45
Who in their right mind would have picked the Giants to win last weekend? Well, except Jim who boggles my mind with his selections some times! Surely they can’t pull off another shock this week? Sterling Shepard
should be back after missing out with an illness which should help their passing attack which lacked bite last week, so it looks like Shepard is likely to be out with continued migraines which is a worry for him in the long run. Even Evan Engram who has been very reliable recently failed to get much going last week although he did get a lot of targets. The other two guys in the passing game are Roger Lewis and Tavares King. They’re best priced 7/2 and 5/1 respectively, I’m leaning towards King as a possible scorer, but I’m not confident enough in either to put money on them. After a “productive meeting” during the week the defence at least turned up for them last week, although the weather probably helped them keep the score down as well. Orleans Darkwa has actually been a bright spot for the Giants, he’s run for over 70 yards in each of the last 3 games scoring once. 64.5 on 365 is a little too close to the line for me.
The Redskins suffered a heartbreaking defeat in N’Orleans in a game that they were over 99% likely to win. To make things worse that came after they failed to run down the clock following the less of Chris Thompson with a broken fibula. That leaves the backfield in the hands of Samaje Perine (Evens) who hasn’t done as much as I expected so far. He will have to now, the other RB they have is a kid by the name of Byron Marshall, I can’t say I’ve ever heard of him but he’s all they’ve got, somehow he’s only priced at a best of 7/2 so he’s not worth a bet in my eyes. Kirk Cousins had a brilliant game last week and is earning every bit of the $160m they’ll be paying him in the summer. He’s been connecting well with Jamison Crowder recently for 9,4, and 7 receptions since he’s been back fitter. His line for receptions is at 4.5 (4/5) on 365, I think that should land. Josh Doctson is an interesting one but I find it hard to figure out what he’s going to do week in, week out. One man who should be a little easier to predict today is Vernon Davis, the Giants don’t do well vs Tight ends, and he is a good one especially if Jordan Reed is out as expected. Unfortunately the bookies know this as well and he’s priced at a best of 7/4 on Ladbrokes/Coral, the first time they’ve been best priced on anyone for months. To be honest he’s probably a bet at that price so I’ll be on him there.
- Jamison Crowder o4.5 receptions – 4/5 (365) – 2pt
- Vernon Davis anytime TD – 7/4 (Ladbrokes) – 2pt
I think this will be relatively low scoring, but the Redskins should win.
In fact I’ll likely have 1pt on
- Vikings (6/4), Chargers (13/8) and Redskins (7/5) all to win by 1-13 points at 14.75/1 on PP (Winning margin 4-way)
Total outlay for the night – 11pts.
(Apologies for the titles, I felt like bulking it out a little with some horrible puns)
Good Luck if you’re on anything, enjoy your Turkey if you’re having any! Eat, Drink and be Merry! – Adam.