Week 11 – SNF – Briefs and tips! #NFL #NFLUK

Detroit (-3) at Chicago – o/u – 41

You know it’s not your day when you challenge a decision to try and get a TD and it ends up losing your own team the ball. Chicago had a bad Sunday night! They usually defend very well at home but allowed a few long balls over the top last week. Trubisky was a plus-point though throwing a few dimes down the field and nearly breaking the 300 barrier for the first time in his career, it was promising for him and the Bears. It seems stupid to say the Lions struggled when putting up 38 points, but it wasn’t very tidy against the Browns. They did however welcome back Kenny Golladay who adds an important downfield aspect to their passing game. This should be a pretty tight NFC North battle, the Lions need the win to keep any kind of pressure on the Vikings at the top and they should get it – LIONS to beat the spread.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5) at Cleveland – o/u – 37

Unders… You know what… It’s Cold, Windy, It’s going to be around freezing, it’s going to be around 20mph winds, it may well snow! The Jags are used to the cosy humid warmth in Florida, the guy who got them off to the good start they’ve had in their season looks like he is still carrying the ankle injury he’s been struggling with, he said before the draft that he didn’t want to join the Browns because it’s cold up North! He’s re-iterated that this week saying he’s not looking forward to playing in the cold, poor boy, Dede Westbrook should be returning for the Jags, he looked very good in pre-season so it’ll be interesting to see how it goes in his debut. It won’t be easy due to the weather concerns… The Browns are going to win this game. I can feel it. BROWNS – obviously against the spread as well. There is less than zero logic to this pick, they are going to struggling to move the ball against one of the best defences in the league even with Corey Coleman probably back. The weather, in theory makes downfield passing tough so short passes to Duke Johnson and running with Crowell seems the logical thing to do, unfortunately Hue doesn’t usually follow along with logic. Speaking of logic… Wind over 20 and Cold under 30 Fahrenheit start to affect the game, theory states that means shorter field goals. u44.5 for Longest FG?! – Fournette is actually questionable for tonight, it should be mainly on the ground, so 11/4 for Ivory at PP – 1pt, seems a sensible bet

Baltimore Ravens (-2) at Green Bay – o.u – 38

Urgh. The Ravens have a cracking defence and go up against a backup QB who maybe, just maybe finding his feet. They have very little on offense still if they can scrape a win here they could make a push for the playoffs with Danny Woodhead back this week. He was going to be their entire offense this year (9/2 anytime on PP). The passing game stinks, the QB stinks, obviously I like Alex Collins at RB for them. The Packers showed signs of life last week, Devante Adams looked to be favoured and if you didn’t see the name on the jersey you could have mistaken a few throws for Rodgers. It looks like Aaron Jones may be missing a few weeks, Ty Montgomery also took a knock last week so we’ll need to check on the situation there, if they’re not in then it’s Jamaal Williams. I try and hide my dislike and apathy over the Ravens, but it’s tough. PACKERS – I wouldn’t bet on it either way though. – Danny Woodhead anytime TD – 11/2 (PP) – 1pt

Tampa Bay (-1) at Miami – o/u – 41.5

The “bye-bowl” – This should have been the opening game of the season for these two but Hurricane Irma cancelled that first game. It’s a stinker of a game in all fairness. Both teams have failed this year and it’s a case of figuring out who is least bad. For me, It’s probably the Bucs, Mike Evans had an enforced bye last week so should be fresher, he’s 7/5 anytime and goes up against a corner who is targeted every 6.5 passing plays, he’s not very good, and they at least won a game. It looks like the line will be set at TB+1 and o40.5 points It was set at that, now the above… I like the overs, the Dolphins have been scoring since the Jay-train left the station and neither team can defend. As for a winner. Who cares. TAMPA – Mike Evans anytime should come in, 2 or more for him is 10/1 and is tempting. OJ Howard anytime – 7/1 (PP) is tempting too, but he didn’t receive a target last week, I’m not sure whether with Mike Evans back it will open things up or not, but if you think it will that’s a good price.

Arizona Cardinals (+2) at Houston – o/u – 37.5

The week continues to disappoint. With the multitude of injuries Houston has suffered, they’re probably a bottom 5 team, hell, even the Bengals may be able to beat them in their current state. DeAndre Hopkins will get the ball still though, especially with Will Fuller missing out, the guy who will be getting Fullers targets though will be Bruce Ellington, he’s 11/4 on PP and that’s a price I’ll be getting on. The Cardinals have Blaine Gabbert starting for them, that’s probably an upgrade on Drew Stanton, and he’s a pretty mobile QB, I think that 10/1 is overpriced for him and I’ll have a point on him at that price, I guess they’ll rely on their old guys as well and it will be mainly on AP and Fitzgerald to move the ball for them. CARDINALS – Gabbert anytime TD – 10/1 (365) – 1pt, Bruce Ellington anytime TD – 11/4 (PP) – 2pts

LA Rams (+2.5) at Minnesota – o/u – 45.5

Game of the week! Last year a Rams team who used Keenum and Goff went 4-12. This year they are a combined 13-4. The turn around for the Rams has been remarkable and goes to show how defensive and horrible Jeff Fisher was. It’s worth noting that the Rams have had an easy time of for the most part this season, they lost to the Seahawks, although should have probably won. Goff has struggled throwing into tight windows, and while McVay has schemed the offense well to get the best of Goff this season this game could be different facing one of the best defences in the league on the road. Keenum is still the starter for now, but seems to be on a short leash now that Teddy B is back, whether he’s made Diggs and Thielen the best WR duo in the league, or they’ve made him look good remains to be seen, a little of both probably. Anyway. Tough one to call, but got to take the VIKINGS at home, they’ll cover the spread too. Xavier Rhodes is going to shut someone down in this game, whether it’s Woods or Watkins I’m not sure, both have very low yard lines set, Woods is 43.5 at PP (although 58.5 at 365!), Watkins 35.5. Cooper Kupp is probably a better play for the yards, he usually plays in the slot and is a favoured target of Goff still, but his line is set at over 50 yards and that’s not something I want a part of. I think I’ll just be watching this game and enjoying it with nothing riding on it!

Washington (+8.5) at New Orleans – o/u – 51

Holy Moly another cracker, you can tell it’s getting near Thanksgiving, the matchups pick up around then! The Saints have won 7 in a row after losing their first 2 and are the most potent attack in the league since releasing AP. They ran all over the Bills last week and it seems likely that they’ll try that again this week! If not then Brees will throw 14 TDs if needed, he’s probably gagging to do it! The Redskins lost Fat Rob for the reason so Samaje Perine (21/10) will be the direct fill in for him, but Chris Thompson (9/5) will probably be the beneficiary, it seems likely that Jordan Reed will miss out (shock horror) so Vernon Davis will get the workload again, he’s relevant even if Reed is playing but 2/1 is a little tight for my liking, his yards are too high for me to take too. Kirk Cousins looks great to everyone except most Redskins fans and he’ll keep pace with the Saints to a certain extent. It’s a high scoring total but every time I try unders they put up a ton! – SAINTS – No value in anything for me here, another to enjoy!

Kansas City (-10) at NY Giants – o/u – 46

You may have heard this before… Andy Reid is great coming off a bye week, he’s won around 140% of his matches when returning from a week off, well, 16-2, Remarkable. The Chiefs should be able to do whatever they want against a Giants team which has given up on defence. The Giants have now gone 10 games conceding to a tight end, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Kelce fail to score this week though, it’s just how this season has been. It may be worth checking on a price for the #2 TE, Demetrius Harris, PP have him at 11/2, although it’s listed as 14/1 so I think we may have missed out there. Eli is hitting Shepard and Engram 10 times a game each and I’d expect that to carry on against a crappy Chiefs D – BUT Keep an eye on Shepards health, he’s apparently suffering an illness, if he’s out, it’s all Engram, you can get 5/2 on him. CHIEFS win and I’ll be on the overs, although it’s rising by the day! Travis Kelce anytime TD – Evens (365) – 5pts (NAP) Evan Engram anytime TD – 5/2 (365) – 2pt

Buffalo Bills (+5.5) at LA Chargers – o/u – 41

Nathan Peterman is in at QB for the Bills in a move that seems inexplicable for most of the world, but the Bills hate Tyrod, so they’ve blamed him for being unable to stop the running game last week vs the Saints and dropped him. Apparently playing a rookie QB in his first start against Bosa and Ingram is a good idea. The Chargers should have Phil Rivers playing, he’s been in the concussion protocol, but apparently should be good to go. I say it every week. If they use Hunter Henry they win. He caught one pass last week. They lost. It’s not bloody difficult! I was trying to get on the Chargers -3 when the Tyrod news hit, but missed out – CHARGERS win and should cover 4.5 – Apparently Charles Clay is questionable for tonight, and the backup QB normally has a rapport with the players he’s been training with, that would be Nick O’Leary the backup usually. You can get 8/1 on him tonight – O’Leary anytime TD – 8/1 (pp/willhill) – 1pt

Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5) at Denver – o/u 38

Pleh. This game stinks. Take over on the sack totals. Take under on everything else. The Bengals are a shambles. The Broncos aren’t much better. It’s in Denver. BRONCOS – IF Virgil Green is somehow priced up at 16/1+ have a little dabble, he’s the only remaining Tight end for them, and Brock is under centre.

New England (-7) vs. Oakland – o/u – 54.5

“And i’m gonna be Hiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiigh” – If Denver is Mile High, this is 2 mile high, the Raiders played here last year and Khalil Mack said he couldn’t breath at the altitude, in theory the experience should help the Raiders, but they have no defence and the guys they have got are going to be shattered. The Pats have been training in Colorado all week to get a taste of altitude, and while this is considerably higher, it should help them a little. Besides, it’s Bellichek. If anyone can game plan for this it’s him and Brady. I’m loving a bit of Sexy Rexy. Mr. Burkhead has been upping his snaps week on week, I’ll be on him anytime and probably 2+ as well. Kicks travel further at high altitude so have a look at the longest field goal market when available. PATRIOTS and to cover if it’s less than 7. They haven’t allowed more than 17pts in 4 weeks now. – Everything here says it will be a high scoring game though, the total is one of the highest of the season, so you’ve got to look at Lewis, Burkhead, Cooks, Gronk for the Pats. For the Raiders Crabtree (13/8), Cook, Cooper maybe?! I wouldn’t be too sure on Lynch though, he hasn’t scored much this season – Burkhead – anytime TD –  2/1 – 2pts, Burkhead 2 or more – 10/1 (365) – 1pt. Jared Cook o40.5 rec. yards – 10/11 (Skybet) – 2pts

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Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) at Dallas – o/u – 48

Dallas are without their best Offensive line player, their best RB, and their best defensive player. It’s probably not going to be pretty for them this week! Dak was hit constantly last week mainly by Adrian Clayborn who recorded a season of sacks in 1 game. Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham must be rubbing their hands in anticipation. The Cowboys will need to throw the ball to keep up with the Eagles who are on Superbowl form this season, most of the throws will go to Cole Beasley who has been thrown to 40 times this season, and has 188 yards. That’s horrible. The Eagles should be able to do whatever they want in this game, Ajayi is apparently integrated and has learnt the playbook, as long as Wentz doesn’t fall apart after the bye they should be able to put up 4 TDs a game minimum. They were -3 at the start of the week which seemed like it was printing money, that’s creeping up to -5 now. EAGLES

A few yardage lines I like the look of –

Flacco u240 on Skybet, Larry Fitz under 70 on skybet (his home/road splits are ridiculous and he’s got a new QB there) Obviously Cook as mentioned, and I’ve found 40.5 on Cooper Kupp which is risky, but better than 50 that I was finding last night!

Summary –

  • Chris Ivory anytime TD – 11/4 (PP) – 1pt
  • Danny Woodhead anytime TD – 9/2 (PP) – 1pt
  • Gabbert anytime TD – 10/1 (365) – 1pt
  • Bruce Ellington anytime TD – 11/4 (PP) – 2pts
  • Travis Kelce anytime TD – Evens (365) – 5pts (NAP)
  • Evan Engram anytime TD – 5/2 (365) – 2pt
  • Nick O’Leary anytime TD – 8/1 (PP) – 1pt
  • Burkhead – anytime TD –  2/1 (365) – 3pts (NB)
  • Burkhead 2 or more – 10/1 (365) – 1pt
  • Jared Cook o40.5 rec. yards – 10/11 (Skybet) – 2pts
  • NAP/NB – 5/1 (365) – 2pts

21 point outlay.

Good Luck if you’re on anything tonight!

Adam.

Oh, also, I set up a draftkings league for this week which still needs a few entrants! – Enter here if you fancy trying to win my money! https://dkn.gs/r/LOYkrK-f-EK5O-pQQpglFg

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