SNF – Week 12 – Briefs and Tips

Was surprisingly on point on Thanksgiving with my write ups and got the results correct on all three of them, annoyingly the player props didn’t come in as frequently as I had hoped. But after last weekend it was nice to have any winners :/

Tampa Bay at Atlanta

This is the start of the Bucs run to 8 wins and a winning antepost bet for me… OK, maybe not, but they have won 2 in a row against poor opposition to at least look better than they were, Doug Martin can’t get it going this year, he keeps getting the carries but is averaging a dismal 3.1 yards per carry which is below average. Their defence has improved in the middle of the field, but it’s still rated one of the worst in the league vs WRs so a certain Julio Jones should have a good day now that he and Ryan seem to be clicking again. Devonta Freeman will again be out with concussion meaning that Tevin Coleman will get the bulk of the carries. Mo Sanu looks like he’ll be a decent option for yards/TD as well so I’ll be looking for a price on him. I would be very tempted to take the Bucs to cover the 10 pt spread, but the FALCONS should win. – Sanu o43.5 rec. yards – 10/11 (Skybet) – 1pt – OJ Howard anytime TD – 9/2 (PP) – 1pt

Cleveland at Cincinnati

The “Battle” of Ohio. Battle seems a little strong for two horribly blunt offensive teams, maybe Skirmish is more suitable? a Spat? Anyway, this isn’t going to be watched by many other than fans of the teams. the Bengals should win, Dalton actually plays well against Cleveland, he threw 4 TDs vs them earlier in the year with Tyler Kroft bringing in 2 of them. I can see it being a similar script tonight. The Bengals actually have a badly over-looked defence. They’re the main reason they’re anywhere near the playoff chase. They should have a field day against Kizer. It’s worth noting that Corey Coleman had more receiving yards vs the Jags than any other player this season in his first game back from injury last week, check his player props (43.5 yards on PP). BENGALS should win, again wouldn’t be shocked to see the underdog cover the spread though

Tennessee at Indianapolis

A sneaky possibility to be one of the higher scoring matches of the week. Neither of them can defend. I would actually argue that the Colts have played better than the Titans in a lot of games this season. But they can’t defend and have had to rely on a backup QB. Jacoby Brissett has done very well though! He leads the league in 20+ yard TD passes this season and has kept TY Hilton and Jack Doyle fairly relevant for the most part. TY is a very frustrating players though, when he’s good, he’s VERY good, when he’s bad he get 7 yards. His good games usually come at home though and I think he’ll be able to get a score against this Titans defence. The Titans are perfectly capable of scoring, and a total of 45.5 is low in my eyes, I’ll be taking the overs. COLTS for the upset. Over 46 (1/3 on the treble, see summary)

Buffalo at Kansas City

One of these teams has lost 4 of the last 5, the other has lost 3 out of 5. That’s not overly surprising given how they’ve been playing, but you probably wouldn’t have picked the Chiefs to have been the poorer team over that time. Kareem Hunt has hit a wall although he’s apparently still the odds-on favourite to win OROY. I mentioned Kamara a couple of weeks back at 10/1, he’s now 21/10 and I would expect that to further shorten given their difference in form recently. Anyway, if Hunt can’t get back on track against a Bills team that has conceded 313 rush yards in 2 games, then he’s not worth following any more. The Bills have Tyrod back at QB after the debacle last week, he will be the RB2 behind Shady McCoy as Mike Tolbert is out and they have no-one else. Maybe Paddy DiMarco can get a goal line carry? Check his price, if it’s 16+ then could be worth a little look. I will be taking the Bills +10 on the handicap, I think there’s actually a half-decent chance of them winning the game, but I can’t tip them – CHIEFS – Kareem Hunt at odds-on is shocking, don’t take him odds on, he’s been distinctly average since week 3. Admittedly they’re playing a crap run defence, but I think that’s priced based on the whole season rather than recent form. The Bills will score here, and with Kelvin Benjamin missing out, Jordan Matthews beaten up again I think either Andre Holmes (9/1 PP) or Deonte Thompson (8/1 365) will get into the end zone, I’m not sure which though! – Charles Clay o30.5 rec. yards – 10/11 (Skybet) – 2pt with the aforementioned injuries to pass catchers Tyrod should use “mr. necessary” a lot today

Miami at New England

16 (actually down from 16.5) points. I don’t think I’ve seen a handicap like that before, although it doesn’t even make the top 5 of the last 10 years or so by the look of it. It’s not backable, but I think the Patriots will cover. The Dolphins are the worst team in the league according to PFF, god knows how they made it to 4 wins on the season. The Pats haven’t allowed more than 17 points in a game since week 4, so anyone who tells you they have a poor defence is just wrong. You can’t touch their backfield, although I may remain in the flames with Rex Burkhead, he fumbled last week and lost his chance but everything was trending up for him before that. Matt Moore is going to be in a QB, so looks for Kenny Stills props, he’s his favourite guy and a good downfield threat for them with Moore under centre. PATRIOTS – Kenny Stills anytime TD – 4/1 (PP) – 1pt, Stills yards is 42.5 on PP as well, also a good bet, Pats operate a bend, don’t break defence so give up yards rather than points a lot of the time and as said above, he’s Moores fave target.

Carolina at NY Jets

I don’t know what I’m really missing here. The Panthers seem to have hit form and Cam is playing at near 2015 levels again, he’s a threat on the ground and through the air and welcomes back his bestest buddy this week in Greg Olsen which may take away from McCaffrey outlook in the middle of the field, although with Curtis Samuel now on IR he could move to there and everything remains the same. The Panthers have a very good defence as well and I just don’t see the Jets being able to keep up with them. I do however like Robby Anderson as usual though. CAROLINA win and cover the spread, although it has ticked up a point since I looked at it a few days ago. Panthers -5 (2/3 treble)

Chicago at Philadelphia

The Eagles have far too much for the Bears, a 4-headed running attack, options in receiving, a great run stopping defence. They will probably cover the 2 TD spread. Again I personally don’t back that high, but it will be an easy win for the EAGLES – Too hard to call any of the RBs, Jeffrey seems to have settled into the passing TDs now, but poor odds on all as it’s likely they’ll win at a canter.

Seattle at San Francisco

A lot has changed since the 12-9 thriller earlier in the season at the C-Link. Both teams have lost their defence. The Seahawks are more a Legion of Gloom than Boom and the 49ers put another player on IR on a weekly basis. The Seahawks are the Bengals, the Broncos, and any other team without an Offensive line with one small difference. Russell Wilson. He’s a magician. He is pretty much single handedly keeping this team in the running to win their division (they hold the tie-breaker over the Rams and after tonight’s games will be level with them) – Yeah, that means they’ll win – SEAHAWKS – One I was looking at thinking I’d be getting good odds with JD McKissic, although the Seahawks backfield is a mess he’s looked good when getting the ball, but the odds on him aren’t anywhere near what I wanted, a measly 13/5. Not good. – Jimmy Graham anytime TD – 13/10 (PP) – 3pts – NB

New Orleans at LA Rams

If you read my Seahawks preview you should be able guess who I think will win this one! I am actually shocked that the Saints are underdogs in this game, in my eyes they are by some way the better team. Ingram and Kamara are the best RB duo in the league and are on target for o3000 yards between them this season. They have been the RB1 and 2 in fantasy since AP left the team. If that doesn’t work they’ve still got one of the best QBs in the league who calmly led them out of a big hole last week in a game they apparently had a less than 1% chance of winning. I would be even more confident if Marshon Lattimore was playing, but he and their second best CB are both missing. That actually gives me slight pause. The Rams are without their top WR Robert Woods who is carrying a knock as well, I think this will give more targets to Cooper Kupp despite him letting them down last week with a fumble and a drop, if not him then Sammy Watkins should do well. Despite their record the Rams have only really beaten the Cowboys (that was a good win) and have been very lucky with injuries as well. The Saints are a good team and are going to leave LA with the win. SAINTS – Saints +2.5 (3/3 for the treble) – Mark Ingram anytime TD – 11/10 (PP) – 4pts – NAP

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Jacksonville at Arizona

Jaelen Ramsey is out. That might make them the 2nd best defence in the league now? They have averaged around 10 pts a game conceded on the road this year, and despite this being a Blaine Gabbert revenge game I’m pretty sure the defence will be able to cope. The fact that it’s also a Calais Campbell REVENGE game as well obviously cancels out the Gabbert affect. Dede Westbrook said he’d get 200 yards last week in the cold wet north in Cleveland. Maybe he just missed out by a week? And in fairness he may get close. You’ve got to think Patrick Peterson will follow Marquis Lee that Westbrook will go against one of the other bums on the Cards defence. He should do well. When you’re struggling you either choose the home team, or pick the team with the best unit. The Jags defence is by far the best unit on show here – JAGUARS – Dede Westbrook anytime TD – 4/1 (PP) – 1pt

Denver at Oakland

These teams are both out of contention for the AFC West (I infact tipped up the Chargers on here to take that division at 6/1 as a bit of a longshot) Both of them changed coordinator in the week, the Broncos picking up the former Raiders OC, Bill Musgrave, whether that will help them plan for the current blunted iteration of the Raiders, who knows. The Broncos can’t defend, can’t throw and can barely run the ball. The same can be said for the Raiders. Their passing game has dropped significantly since last season and while Marshawn Lynch hasn’t been awful, he’s not done as much as they would have hoped in the run game. The second Lynch in this game is the newly installed Broncos QB, he couldn’t displace Trevor Siemian in the off-season and was apparently miles off him, yet that’s the way they’ve decided to go. Could this be the game the Raiders get their first Interception of the year?! – RAIDERS win but it won’t be pretty. Looks for Devonatae Booker player props, I think he’ll be taking over the backfield. – Booker anytime TD – 3/1 (365) – 2pts, Paxton Lynch anytime TD – 15/2 (PP) – 1pt

Green Bay at Pittsburgh

Steelers good. Packers bad. One thing on this game, will they Steelers consider the Packers a good matchup still because of their name, or will they play down to their crappy level? It’s what they do against poor opposition. The Packers haven’t given up 60 yards on the ground in 3 games now, so could be sensible to hold fire on Lev Bell, but he’s the best in the game who isn’t injured, so who knows. Davante Adams is Hundleys favourite target so he should get his yards still. Don’t trust anyone else. STEELERS but not on against the spread.

 

  • Sanu o43.5 rec. yards – 10/11 (Skybet) – 1pt
  • OJ Howard anytime TD – 9/2 (PP) – 1pt
  • Titans @ Colts Over 46pts, Panthers -5.5, Saints +2.5 treble – 6.11/1 – 2pts
  • Charles Clay o30.5 rec. yards – 10/11 (Skybet) – 2pts
  • Kenny Stills anytime TD – 4/1 (PP) – 1pt
  • Jimmy Graham anytime TD – 13/10 (PP) – 3pts – NB
  • Mark Ingram anytime TD – 11/10 (PP) – 4pts – NAP
  • NAP and NB double – 3.83/1 2pts
  • Dede Westbrook anytime TD – 4/1 (PP) – 1pt
  • Booker anytime TD – 3/1 (365) – 2pts
  • Paxton Lynch anytime TD – 15/2 (PP) – 1pt

20 points outlay for me.

Good Luck whatever you go with tonight, Saints vs Rams game should be a cracker.

League is full for this week on draftkings, but join the group and you’ll get an invite when they set up next weeks league and you might be able to win some cash from us! – https://dkn.gs/r/LOYkrK-f-EK5O-pQQpglFg – and if you need an account sign up through my refer a friend link below and I might get something from it, might not, depends on what you play I think, the T&Cs are a little vague on it all! – https://www.draftkings.co.uk/r/cavey007

 

Adam, TDTips.

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