Week 12 – MNF – #Texans @ #Ravensflock

You may have seen me bitching on Twitter today about my luck. This week I had, Mark Ingram have his TD called back because of a hold, Booker was downed at the half yard line, Jared Cook caught the ball in the back of the endzone but inexplicably released it before snagging it again and his TD overturned. I know that’s life, and it is, it’s gambling, it happens, but that’s a 26 points swing. So from an 18 point profit if they went the other way to an 8 point loss on the night. It’s been one of them season.

Oh, and not only that, Rex Burkhead, who I tipped last week for an anytime TD and 2 or more, went and scored 2 this week.

On the plus side, I’m making the right calls, and that’s partly why I do this blog instead of just giving selections on twitter, I feel that if I can explain why I’m taking a player for a bet and show my workings, so to speak then at least people can make a more informed decision on bets rather than just blindly backing/ignoring what I write on there. I hope that all makes sense, and I hope beyond hope that my bloody luck changes at some point!

You know next week that Dede Westbrook and Corey Coleman are both going to score with me having tipped them this week.

Anyway, this is a longer intro than needed, because, well, it’s the Ravens v Texans. It’s not like I need to do a huge write up for this game.

As we’ll be at the quarter-pole tomorrow (yes a quarter LEFT) I’ll knock up a quick update on the ante-post bets, it helps that I’m off work tomorrow as well so should have plenty of time to get things sorted out.


Texans (+7.5) @ Baltimore Ravens – o/u – 39.5

I am worrying myself here, but I may be about to say something nice about the Ravens.  They have one of the best defences in the league and with Danny Woodhead returning may actually have some semblance of an offense, although he’s officially a running back, he does most of his work through short passes so facing the best run defence in the league doesn’t worry me too much. – I love Danny Woodhead, he’s probably the best in the league at what he does, he’s set at 46.5 combined yards on 365. They do still have Joe Flacco at QB, but even he can dump the ball off 5 yards for Woodhead to do all the work.  He even managed to throw it downfield to Wallace last week who made a cracking catch for a TD, Liz Loza (@lizloza_ff on twitter) likes both Wallace and Maclin to have good games this week and she’s usually pretty damn good on her longer shots each week. Other than the main guys, Ben Watson is usually a good play on a weekly basis, he gets his targets but rarely goes for a whole lot of yardage and has only found the endzone a couple of times this season, so from a betting standpoint, maybe not so relevant. As I say most Ravens games, I do like Alex Collins at RB, he had a good game last week with Woodhead back in the side, his highest attempts of the season at 20, although only 2.5 ypc, he did finally get into the endzone, and with Terrance West back imminently he will need to to keep his place, interestingly he’s been used in the passing game in recent weeks as well.

The Ravens Defence is very good, they held the Packers to ZERO last week, their third shutout of the season! – They also have Justin Tucker who while he hasn’t out-scored the whole rest of the team as I expected, he has scored quite a few FGs, and that may be where I look tonight – 365,

  • 1st half props – o1.5 First half FGs for the Ravens – 7/4 – 1pt
  • Danny Woodhead combined yards – o46.5 – 4/5 (365) – 1pt

justintucker_mmqb


The fact that I’m starting the Texans write up with a defensive player says all you need ot know about the offence of this team, Flacco faces Jadeveon Clowney who is one of the best pass rush type guys in the league as proven last week and Flacco’s lack of any kind of movement could prove an issue, imagine if Watt and Mercilus hadn’t gone down. Tom Savage is still at QB and he is still doing what he does, not too much, he’ll still target Nuk Hopkins for the most part, he has 11,16,14 and 9 targets in the last 4 weeks and you’d imagine that will continue. Will Fuller was on a huge scoring streak with Watson at QB, but he’s out injured with his ribs still tonight so Bruce Ellington will again be the WR2, he had a good week last week without getting into the end zone, and if things follow as they have with my picks recently, I’m sure he’ll get in tonight when I don’t back him. One man I may well back is the TE Stephen Anderson, he’s made some clutch plays for them at important times in recent weeks and has at least 3 targets a game in the last month, he’s a big price to score tonight and if the Ravens have a weak point then it’s probably against Tight ends. CJ Fed has come back in recent weeks and gets a fair few targets himself as well, but he’s a measly 7/2 to score instead of the 10s available for Anderson. At running back Lamar Miller will get the vast majority of carries, but they were mixing Dont’a Foreman in well until he did his achilles last week, so Alfred Blue will be the backup to him and should get 10 or so touches, he’s a nice 10/1 to score tonight as well. They did also sing Bruce Ellingtons cousin, Andre who plays as a pass catching back, it’s unclear how much action he’ll get tonight though. He’s in at 11/1 on Ladbrokes if you fancy him.

  • Stephen Anderson anytime TD – 10/1 (365) – 1pt
  • 1st half team FGs – o0.5 – 1/1 (365) – 3pt

Summary –

The Ravens should win this one, they’re at home and they have the one decent unit on show, their defence is probably the second best in the league, but I can’t have them covering over a Touchdown on the spread. It’ll probably be low scoring, but again I won’t be doing anything with regards to that, they put up 40 pts themselves when they were last on primetime.

  • 1st half team FGs – Ravens – o1.5 – 7/4 – 1pt
  • Danny Woodhead combined yards – o46.5 – 4/5 (365) – 1pt
  • Stephen Anderson anytime TD – 10/1 (365) – 1pt
  • 1st half team FGs – Texans – o0.5 – 1/1 (365) – 3pt

6 points outlay. (Plan is that Texans one to come in and cover the other 3…)

My luck is going to change eventually! Surely…

Adam.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Create a free website or blog at WordPress.com.

Up ↑