Ante-post update – 5 games left! + 1 additional bet.

So we’re near enough at the quarter-pole now, yes I’m a pedant and it’s meant to be a quarter left, not gone.

Well, the Bucs have shafted me, I, along with a lot of the media, misjudged them completely this year and I’m pretty sure that HC Dirk Koetter will be looking for a new job over the summer. I tipped them at big odds for the Superbowl, the division and over 8 wins on the season. There’s still a very slim outside chance of them at least getting me a refund on the o8 wins, but it’s very unlikely, that also kills off the 5 fold I had. I knew I was over the top on their chances this year.

One of my trebles was the Ravens u9.5 wins, Jets u5.5 wins and Steelers to win the North (5/1). The Steelers are practically guaranteed that one, at above evens, that was a steal. The Ravens are going to be worryingly close to 10 wins, I need my Bengals and the Steelers to do me a favour as they’ve got a pretty easy schedule down the stretch. And the Jets, the team that everyone had pegged as the worst roster in history, they have me worrying a little as well! They’ve been stuck on 4 for a while now and will surely give Hackenberg or Petty a go at some point an I can’t see them winning with either of them at QB.

Most passing yards – 

We had Brees on the nose at 5/1, but the worry was always going to be them changing to a running game based team, I was still expecting them to be a shambles on defence and being forced to then throw the ball but they’ve been very solid defensively and kept games close. In the one game they have had to throw the ball Brees threw for close to 400 yards. He’s actually joint 3rd at the moment, just 300 yards off Brady at the top of the league. if Brady sits out game 17, then who knows, we might just scrape it! It’s very close up there other than Brady. Brees sits at 3,038 yards.

The EW bet I had on this market with Philip Rivers at 25/1 (4 places) – Mr. Rivers is very close to that top 4 as well, there’s less than 100 yards separating the 2nd to 7th, Rivers is joint 7th with 2,948 and has hit form at the right time, their run game stinks so it will carry on being Rivers chucking the rock, I’m pretty confident he’ll be finishing top 4

Most receiving yards – 

Had a few EW shouts here, but it looks like Antonio Brown is running away with it at the top, he’s one of 4 guys over 1,000 yards at the moment, yet he’s still 180 yards ahead of them all. He’s been brilliant this year unfortunately. Again we need top 4 here, 4th is currently on just over 1,000 yards, our guys are down in 7th, 8th and er, 21st. Green 809, Michael Thomas 805, DT 600 something. The Bengals have been horrible on offense, so it shows how good AJ is that he’s anywhere near the top 10 in this market. As above Thomas was linked mostly to Brees, he’s been getting 80 odd yards per game, but hasn’t really had a blow-up game as of yet, he’s definitely the most trusted target for Brees though. In conclusion. We’ll be lucky.

Most rushing yards – 

Just the one selection in this market, I avoided Lev Bell as he’s usually injured or suspended for a few games per season, he’s avoided that this year and is on target for the 3rd most touches in a season in NFL history. They use him a lot! – he is quite comfortably ahead with 981 yards, 80 ahead of Kareem Hunt, remember him? 4th place is Jordan Howard on 847, our selection is LeSean McCoy down in 8th on 758, so 85 or so behind at the moment, as I said last time I updated, he gets the carries, he’s 4th in rush attempts. Again, we need a whole lot of luck to get any return from it.

So, the ROTY betting… They’re all dead.

Joe Williams – On IR for the whole season, Dalvin Cook – on IR, Deshaun Watson – on IR, Dont’a Foreman – on IR.

That leaves big ‘ole Samaje Perine who finally has control of the Washingotn backfield, we just need him to score 3 TDs a week and rush for 150+ in each game and we might be in for a win there… Yeah it’s not happening. BUT I did mention Alvin Kamara at 10/1 a couple of weeks back. He’s a shoe-in to win it at a canter with the way he’s been playing in recent weeks. He’s now 2/5 at Skybet which seems to be the only place still offering it.

We have however had a couple of winners on the season already! I posted several times about getting on the unders for the Colts total wins, I got on at u8.5 and with them sitting on 3 wins with 5 games left, that one is in already!

But my favourite bet of the pre-season was the Rams to score o301 points. That landed in week 11. A full 6 games left of the season at some tasty odds of 9/5. Obviously I wasn’t expecting it to be that easy, but it’s great!

The other total points bet that I had was the Titans o365 points, this one is going to be a little closer as frankly, they’re a mess at the moment! They’re down at 242 points at the moment, so need 124 from their last 5 games. They do have a very cushy schedule, but they’re playing so badly at the moment I would be surprised if it came in! 25 pts a game seems way out of their reach

Overall… Not a great lot of selections frankly!

Could be able to scrape a win on a 5/1 treble, and with a bit of luck may get some return on the passing yards, but other than that it’s not looking too good! – But having a couple of wins already on the season is damn good!

Looking forward, I’ve got a couple of teams that I like the look of to make the play-offs, but it looks like I’m a little late on the markets for them, damn it.

So it will have to be divisional winners! The Chargers, the Jags, the Panthers and the Seahawks, I think all have pretty good chances to win their respective divisions.

The Chargers are the only form team in the AFC and sit second at 5-6, just 1 game behind the Chiefs who have lost 5 out of 6 games and sit at 6-5. The Chargers have a fairly easy schedule, facing the Browns, Redskins, Chiefs, Jets and Raiders in their final 5. They could feasibly win all 5, but it seems more likely that they’ll get at least 3 wins at least, if they go on to beat the Chiefs as well, that will more than likely give them the division. Looking at the Chiefs schedule, they have a pretty easy run as well, Jets, Raiders, Chargers, Dolphins and Broncos, realistically they should win at least 3 as well, with the game vs the Chargers being the crucial match in their last 5. The Chargers are currently 15/8 on Bet365 to take the division. – NO BET

The Jaguars have an identity, they have a Superbowl calibre defence. Unfortunately for them they have a shit QB. So if games go the way they want then they”ll control the game and win, if they fall behind and have to let Bortles do something, then they’ll probably lose. They sit second in their division at 7-4, joint with the Titans at the top. Jacksonville should win against the Colts, Texans and 49ers in their remaining 5, that leaves a tough match vs the Seahawks and the final game vs the Titans which may well decide this division. The Titans haven’t played well all season but have been getting the wins, they have the Rams and Cardinals who could cause them some issues. The Jaguars are best priced 5/4 at 10bet, but around 6/5 at all the usual bookmakers. It may be stupid, and it may cost me, but I think they’re a bet at 6/5 – 4pts. 

The NFC South is an intriguing division! The Saints and the Panthers sit atop both at 8-3, either of the top 3 can beat each other, so this one requires a bit more faith! The top 2 teams face each other this weekend which should be a cracking match! – Now, if the Panthers win that then they’re obviously in the driving seat, and I think there’s a good chance they do beat them, they’ve been in good form of late and are sneaking under the radar slightly, mainly due to how well the Saints have been playing. The Panthers have Saints, Vikings, Falcons, Bucs and Packers left, so 3 tough matchups. The Saints have the Panthers, Falcons twice, Jets and Bucs. Now I think they’ll split with the Falcons, so it realistically all depends on this week. The Falcons are the team with it all in their own hands, they’re just 1 game behind and have done well statistically without getting full reward for their play, they have Saints twice (obviously), Bucs, Vikings and Panthers. So whoever wins this division, it’s all going to be down to how the Falcons play. – In fact the Falcons at 5/1 is a tempting bet, as I have said, it’s all in their hands, it’s worth noting, they started 6-4 last season before their run to the Superbowl. Panthers are 2/1 and the Saints are 4/6 – NO BET.

The final one I wanted to look at in more detail was the Seahawks winning the NFC West, they are a game behind the Rams, but currently have the tie-breaker having beaten them earlier in the season. They both have tough schedules on the run-in. The ‘Hawks have the Eagles this week, then Jags, Rams, Cowboys (with Zeke back) and finish with the Cardinals. If everyone wasn’t dead in Seattle, and they had a running game then I could see them winning 4 of those 5. But that’s not the situation, the legion of boom are all injured and they can’t run the ball. But they do have Russell Wilson. So maybe 3 of the last 5 games. As with the divisions above, the scheduling gods have been good to us and there’s a crucial game in the last 5. The Rams have Cardinals, Eagles, Seahawks, Titans and finish with a bye week vs the Niners. It’s an easier schedule for sure, they should win 3, although I don’t see the Cards as a gimme. The game Seahawks vs Rams may well be the decider in this division. The Seahawks at 11/10 to take the division with the Rams best priced at 8/11. – If you were desperate for a double with the Jags then take one of these two, but it’s NO BET for me.

So, just the one additional bet for me here –

  • Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC South – 6/5 – 4pts.

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