Week 3 briefs and tips!

Frustrating Thursday night, the write up contained quite a few winning bets, hopefully a few of you read it and got on things like Sam Darnold INTs, Browns on the Spread, Under on the total. Obviously I didn’t but hey… at least the workings were there.

On to week 3 and hopefully a better week this week!

Buffalo Bills (+16.5) @ Minnesota Vikings: Total – 40.5

Not much to say here, how do you go into much detail on a game with a 17 point favourite?! The Bills have Lesean McCoy as questionable with a rib injury here, if he doesn’t go then it’ll likely be Chris Ivory or Marcus Murphy, I feel Murphy is the better runner of the two and he has the better odds (10/1 on 365)

The Vikings are without Dalvin Cook so it will be Latavius Murray taking the main snaps at RB, if the game gets out of hand as it may well do by half time then Roc Thomas (20/1 unibet) and Michael Boone (5/1 skybet) may get some touches in the second half.

Vikings win, will probably cover the spread but I can’t touch that line!

Minnesota D/ST to score – 4/1 – Skybet – 1 point

Wincast on Ladbrokes – Latavius Murray to score and Vikings to win – 21/10 (3.10) – 3 points

Oakland Raiders (+3) @ Miami Dolphins: Total – 44.5

The Dolphins are 2-0 and have a good chance of progressing to 3-0 this week against a poor Oakland side. Amari Cooper had his good game for the year last week, so expect 10 yards this week. In fairness to the Raiders they weren’t far off winning last week but tired towards the end. This is a long road trip at an early start time in some stiffling heat and possible bad weather. They’ll be tired at the end of this one as well. Derek Carr had an amazing completion record last week of 29 from 32 attempts for 288 yards, very impressive performance from him

The Dolphins, remarkably, are 9-1 in Ryan Tannehills last 10 starts. That’s a quite remarkable stat and they look to have pulled together as a team since casting off the divas Suh and Landry in the summer – I can’t really call who will do anything for the Dolphins though to be honest, Stills is the big play threat but hard to catch, Devante Parker is apparently fit to play but whether the coaching staff want him to or not is a different thing.

I’m not getting involved in anything with this but I expect Miami to cover the spread. If the Raiders are leading at half time take the spread against them, I think they’ll slow down in the second half.

I’ve lost on Seth Roberts already this year, but I’ll give him another go, the Dolphins have 1 very very good Corner who I’d expect to cover Cooper which should help out the others and Seth Roberts at 22.5 yards is too tempting for me, he had 3 catches for 43 last week. – Seth Roberts o22.5 rec. yards – 1/1 Paddypower – 1 point

Indianapolis Colts (+7) @ Philadelphia Eagles: Total – 46.5

Carson Wentz returns and it couldn’t come soon enough for a stagnant Eagles offense. That’s harsh. Their defense let them down last week really. They’ve been stung by injuries with Ajayi, Sproles, Jeffery and Mike Wallace all out. I can only think it’ll be Corey Clement (Listed as doubful) and Agholor, Ertz and new signing Jordan Matthews getting most of the ball this week. If Clement doesn’t go then Wendell Smallwood and Josh Adams are probably of note in the rushing game as they wouldn’t have too many other options there, so keep an eye out on his status.

The Colts are also pretty beaten up and the offensive line could have issues slowing down the Eagles pass rush, but they have been perky since the return of Luck, they killed the Redskins in Washington last week and a lot of short quick passes should help them do well this week too. Marlon Mack has been ruled out in the running game meaning it will be Hines and Wilkins again. I’ve got a hit and miss relationship with Wilkins, he’s screwed me both weeks so far by not hitting his line in week 1 and going over it in week 2. This is his last chance to not screw me over…

I’ve got to take Eagles ML, but Colts catching 7? I’ll take that as well. Corey Clement for anytime scorer.

Jordan Wilkins o46.5 rushing yards – 1/1 Paddypower – 1 point

Green Bay Packers (2.5) @ Washington Redskins: Total – 45

The Redskins impressed week one, then failed last week. This week? I have no idea! I get the feeling the Cardinals are awful and the Colts are better than we believe. They’re struggling to get their WRs going, using a lot of Jordan Reed and Chris Thompson in the passing game. Adrian Peterson is their last surviving RB now that Rob Kelley has gone on IR. I have to think that Samaje Perine will get some carries as the backup there, he’s 22/1 to score anytime at paddypower.

The Packers will have 70% Rodgers back there, he still looked good against a tough Vikings team and they should have won that game if it wasn’t for the wonderful world of Irony with Clay Matthews getting called for the “Rodgers Rule” keeping the game going. Aaron Jones returns from his suspension to muddle the backfield a little more, Jamaal Williams hasn’t taken the step he would have liked to secure the spot, and Jones is the better runner but this week is definitely a watching brief for me with regards to that. Jimmy Graham got going in the passing game finally and if Rodgers has to spend more time in the pocket than scrambling it makes sense his 6’6″ former Basketball player gets more action in the middle of the park. I’m tempted with o39.5 rec. yards for him over on PP.

Overall it’s a tough one to call, but I think I’ve got to take Green Bay with even a 70% Rodgers at the helm.

San Francisco 49ers (+6.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs: Total – 55

The total for this game was set at 56.5 points! I can’t remember any that high last season. And there’s one main reason for that Patrick Mahomes, 10 TDs in 2 games to start the season with no turnovers is just ridiculous. He’s so much fun to watch! He spreads the ball around to his main guys, Hill, Kelce, Hunt and even Sammy Watkins have all been great plays so far. We should all be fairly familiar with these guys already, Hill is quick, Kelce is massive, Hunt is the RB and Sammy Watkins has the physical skills to be a top WR in the league. They spread the ball around, mainly to the big 4, but there were quite a few players with a catch last week.

Jimmy G should be able to keep pace with Paddy ‘Homes against a poor Chiefs defense, but doesn’t have the targets his counterpart does. Pierre Garcon is likely the main target, Marquise Goodwin I would imagine will be out again so Dante Pettis is probably the next man up. Trent Taylor will get the ball too, but again he spreads the ball around, last week there were 9 players targeted, big Kyle Juszcyzk had 3 catches, the days of 20/1 on him are long gone though. Matt Breida looks like he’s becoming the guy in the run game, both on the ground and through the air.

I’ll take the Chiefs to win, but not sure i’d take them against the spread.

I can’t believe you can get Tyreek Hill at odds against. He’s 5/4 on WillHill – 3 points – NB

New Orleans Saints (+3) @ Atlanta Falcons: Total – 53.5

Another potentially high scoring affair in the offing here with the Falcons favoured by 3 due to them having a decent home field advantage. They’re without Freeman again so Tevin Coleman will get most of the backfield touches again after a good game last week. It seems like Ryan is making his own calls in the redzone having given up on Sark finally! I thought that Hooper and Ridley would be decent prices for anytime scorers, but 3s for Hooper and shorter than that for Ridley doesn’t really convince me. They should score quite a few TDs if the Saints performances so far are anything to go by. Matt Ryan to throw o1.5 passing TDs is 4/6 on Skybet.

The Saints defense has been horrible so far this year, they scraped to a win against the Browns last week and are missing Mark Ingram alongside Kamara. Michael Thomas is on target for over 200 receptions after 28 in his first two games, and 3 TDs. He’s a PPR hero. Benjamin Watson, the tight end should have got himself a TD last week but was slightly overthrown, but he’s another who’s far too short on the odds for me personally. In fact all anytime scorers in this game are stupidly short. May be worth noting the Sean Payton said this week he wants to give Tre’quan Smith more of the ball, he’s at 17/2 anytime.

I’ll take the Saints ATS, and a lean towards the under.

Denver Broncos (+5.5) @ Baltimore Ravens: Total – 45.5

Battle of the defense. Well… historically it should be anyway, but the Ravens were gashed by the Bengals last week. The Ravens are better at home and this is the Broncos first away trip this season. John Brown (Baltimore) has been heavily targeted and is the man I’ll be looking in player props, while Buck Allen will probably vulture a TD again. The Broncos are usually pretty poor versus the Tight end position and while the Ravens play 3 TEs, I feel that Mark Andrews is the guy they want to get scoring. He’s 7/1 on Bet365. I’ll have a play on him

The Broncos have unearthed a gem in Philip Lindsay at RB, they’ve said they’ll ride the hot hand and that’s been him over Royce Freeman so far this year. Emmanuel Sanders is the main to aim for in the passing game, if his yards are around 60 yards i’m hitting the overs on him again. – As it turns out he’s a little over 60 in most places, so I’m giving it a miss against a usually solid defence, although the Bengals killed through in the slot with Tyler Boyd and that’s generally where Sanders plays.

I’m a little surprised to see the Ravens favourite by 5.5, they should win but I can’t take them at that line. Historically it’s a good spot for the Ravens to cover.

Mark Andrews anytime – 7/1 365 – 1 point

Tennessee Titans (+9.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars – OTB

The Jaguars defense could feast this week! The Titans will probably be without a few offensive linemen again, the health of Mariota is sketchy at QB, it could be Blaine Gabbert again and they were out gained by the Texans by 150 yards last week, only winning due to trick plays. The Titans are actually a bit of a mess and I can’t see them doing much in this game in all honesty.

The Jaguars are a better team without Leonard Fournette, ironically it would probably help them if he misses out again this week. Keelan Cole is looking like a stud with a Beckham-eque one-handed catch. ASJ is one to look at for a TD he’s been targeted each week in the redzone and Dede and Moncrief have mixed in well too. TJ Yeldon and possibly more importantly Corey Grant have done well in Fournettes absence too.

The Jags should win this, the line is off the board at the moment, but I’ve got to imagine it’ll be more than 9. I’d take up to that but not over. – No prop markets on this on Sat. Evening.

New York Giants (+6.5) @ Houston Texans: Total – 42.5

Battle of the 0-2 teams. Both of these have disappointed so far, the Giants offensive line is horrible meaning a lot of passes to Barkley in the backfield, the Texans pass rush could cause them some real issues this week and the NY media is going to be all over the Giants should they lose again this week which is quite possible.

The Texans in fairness did get going last week eventually, Hopkins and Fuller both over 100 yards receiving and a TD. The running game was all Lamar Miller, although Alf Blue is a TD vulture. Fuller is well priced at 5/2 to score tonight. Janoris Jenkins will probably be on Hopkins meaning lesser coverage for Fuller.

The Texans pass rush should be the deciding area in this game, they should win, covering the spread is a little more difficult to call though.

I like Will Fuller at 5/2 on Betfair – 2 points.

Cincinnati Bengals (+3) @ Carolina Panthers: Total – 44

Ah, my Bengals. They’ve looked great to start the season but are without top 5 RB Joe Mixon after knee surgery, it’s a loss for them as he’s been great as a workhorse back in the first 2 weeks, but Gio Bernard (apparently on the injury report with a knee on Wed night) can fill in adequately supported by Mark Walton. Dalton to Green is looking as good as ever, Tyler Boyd is stepping up in the slot and they’ve got Tyler Eifert and John Ross as further options. I do worry against a stout Panthers defense, Luke Kuechly is probably the best LB playing the game (sorry Tez) and a very good run-stuffer. The Bengals pass rush should have a good game against a beaten up Carolina offense, but their passing game runs through Christian McCaffery and that’s an area the Bengals typically struggle. Saying that their LB corps has done pretty well so far this season and the rookies have stepped up on defense when needed.

The Panthers don’t have a whole lot other than CmcC and Cam Newton. Funchess isn’t reliable, although 7 catches for 77 yards last week may say otherwise, DJ Moore hasn’t been involved too much and tight end position (who the Bengals are the worst in the league against this year so far) is a muddled mess as well. Jarius Wright actually got quite a few targets last week, 5 catches for 62 yards and a TD. He’s at 40 yards on RZSports. That’s a touch too high for me annoyingly. Ian Thomas is a potential breakout in this game, the Bengals have given up the most fantasy points to the tight end with their “bend, don’t break” defense. He’s set at 20.5 on RZSports, or better odds at 21.5 on PP.

John Ross… Oh John Ross… you pain in my arse. He’s set at 22.5 yards on RZSports. I have to believe that they’ll target it him down the field eventually and the Panthers secondary isn’t exactly good. I think I might be taking that…

This could be game of the evening with two fairly evenly matched teams. Panthers are 3 point favourites. I’m struggling against the knowledge that Bengals fans aren’t allowed good things and we’ve all been enjoying laughing at the Steelers this week. – Panthers scrape a win.

Ian Thomas o21.5 rec. yards – 1/1 PP – 1 point

Los Angeles Chargers (+7) @ Los Angeles Rams: Total – 48

The Battle of LA! Having collected players and formed a super-team in the summer the Rams are looking to take advantage of having a rookie QB by making a serious Superbowl run this year and they’ve started as well as they could have hoped dispatching the Raiders and the hapless Cardinals without them landing a blow last week. Woods, Kupp and Cooks have looked great in the passing game, Cooks especially, Gurley walks it in on the ground and their defense is elite.

The Chargers were a lot of peoples fancies over the summer but injuries struck as they always do for this team. They lost to the Chiefs when they probably should have won, Rivers is still brilliant, Keenan Allen is a top 10 WR, Melvin Gordon has started the season well on the ground, but they’ve missed Joey Bosa in the pass rush and I can’t see how they can keep up with this Rams team to be honest.

Rams should win this one, I won’t take them against the spread, but would expect them to cover it.

Chicago Bears (-4.5) @ Arizona Cardinals: Total 38.5

My god the Cardinals have been atrocious. They’ve got one of the best running backs in the game, one who is especially good on the outside and they’ve been running him through the middle, crazy. They have said they want him in the slot more so it will be interesting to see if that happens against a good Bears defense. Larry Fitzgerald suffered a strain last week but should be back, he’s far better at home. I don’t think Bradford has long left at QB for this team, expect Rosen either this week or next.

The Bears look great in the first half of their games when Trubisky is running scripted plays, the second halves, not so much, he’s not a very good QB at the moment, but he’s still young and has a good OC. Jordan Howard should have a good game this week for them. Allen Robinson was highly targeted last week and I’d guess will be again although Patrick Peterson could be on him.

With the Cardinals looking like the second worst team in the league (Bills) I’ve got to take the Bears but they haven’t convinced me yet. So i’m actually leaning to the Cardinals against the spread

Dallas Cowboys (+1.5) @ Seattle Seahawks: Total – 41

God I hate the Cowboys, they’re such a boring team to watch. If they get the game script they want they’ll probably win, if they don’t they’ll carry on just running the ball but lose painfully, Zeke is the only player of note in this team. The Seahawks return home after 2 tough road games, they’re pretty awful too, the injuries at WR have made them painful to watch and the offensive line is, well, offensive and will struggle against a fairly good defensive front of Dallas.

Russell Wilson though is an elite Quarterback, he’s the one elite thing in this game. Will that be enough to get them the win? The receiving game is a mess for the Seahawks but it could mean a few more receptions for CJ Prosise at 16/1.

I try to be un-biased when picking games, but god I hate watching the Cowboys – Seahawks win and cover.

However… 10/11 on Zeke is a good price at Betfair is very good – 2 points on that

New England Patriots (-6.5) @ Detroit Lions: Total – 54

Matt Patricia hasn’t had the best of starts as head coach of the Lions and hosting his former boss probably isn’t the best way to recover from a spanking by the Jets and a loss to the 49ers. They still don’t have any run game, but Kerryon Johnson got more carries last week, he should be the future there and by all reports has the talent to become the main back, whether it happens or not is another thing. The passing game is as good as ever though, Matthew Stafford will constantly throw the ball to Tate, Jones, and increasingly, Kenny Golladay.

The Patriots don’t lose 2 games in a row, they haven’t since 2015 and I don’t expect that to change this year. They brought in Josh Gordon in the week, he’s fit to go but whether he will get any of the ball remains a mystery, I’d avoid him this week. Gronk will score this week. There seems to be growing belief that Sony Michel will get a lot of the ball tonight

Patriots win and cover the spread.

Gronk anytime TD scorer – 10/11 WillHill – 2 point.

Summary –

Spread treble

  • Patriots – 6.5
  • Texans – 6
  • Colts + 7

Around 6/1 for the treble – 2 points

Anytime scorers –

  • Minnesota D/ST – 4/1 (5.00) Skybet – 1 point
  • Tyreek Hill – 5/4 (2.20) William Hill – NAP – 3 points
  • Mark Andrews – 7/1 (8.00) Ladbrokes – 1 point
  • Will Fuller – 5/2 (3.50) Betfair – 2 points
  • Ezekiel Elliott – 10/11 (1.91) Betfair – 2 points
  • Rob Gronkowski – 10/11 (1.91) William Hill – 2 points – NB
  • NAP and NB double – 4/1 (5.00) William Hill – 2 points

Player props –

  • Seth Roberts o22.5 rec. yards – 1/1 (2.00) Paddypower – 1 point
  • Jordan Wilkins o46.5 rush yards – 1/1 (2.00) Paddypower – 1 point
  • Ian Thomas o21.5 rec. yards – 1/1 (2.00) Paddypower – 1 point
  • Wincast on Ladbrokes – Latavius Murray to score and Vikings to win – 21/10 (3.10) – 3 points

Total points – 21

Good luck if you follow along, hopefully the new layout on the summary will help, will admit it was a bit messy before this!

6 thoughts on “Week 3 briefs and tips!

Add yours

  1. Being a noon, what is NAP & NB. Is there a guide I could read before looking at this post tonundrrstand the acronyms!


      1. Was able to find it while navi on my mobile. Will try laptop later.


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

Blog at WordPress.com.

Up ↑