Colts (+10.5) @ Patriots: Total – 51.5
Will Indy have some Luck? Will Hines add some variety? Will New England be all White on the night? Can Hogan finally go full Hulk? Will Ryan Grant them the W? Will Chester be Roman free in the secondary? Will Gordon flash?
You’ll like this next one…
Can Pascal program a surprise win for the Colts?
Anyway…
The Colts lost themselves the game by going for it on 4th and 4 on their own 43 with less than a minute on the clock, because apparently a loss is better than a tie. As @nickdunkeyson said on twitter – Lets help our American friends here – 1. Win, 2. Tie, 3. Loss – In that order. LOSING IS WORSE THAN A TIE. Especially in a divisional matchup! – Now 4th and 1, I can maybe understand, but 4th and 4, personally I thought it was a stupid move and it gave them the loss when they immiediately gave up 20 yards to a Hopkins catch for an easy field goal.
The Colts injury report seems to grow by the week, Lucks 2 favourite targets are both out for this one, as is the RB they wanted to be their main running threat, Hilton, Doyle and Mack all miss out.
So there’s some balls to go around. Ryan Grant should take a few of them, I think he’s probably the de facto #1 and as Luck seems to be struggling to throw the ball deep at the moment, short slot routes to him seem like they’ll make sense (4.5 receptions at 5/4 on RZBet). Zach Pascal may be able to put some pressure on the Patriots defense, he came in when Hilton was out last week and got himself a TD, with 6 receptions from 10 targets. Chester Rogers seems to have been the most targeted receiver last week with 11, hauling in 8 of them for 85 yards. Eric Ebron is the main tight end now, he also got double digit targets last week and once again got on the scoresheet, that’s 3 in 4 games this season now.
I’d imagine Jordan Wilkins (26.5 yards on PP) will be the official starting RB again with Mack out of the game, but that doesn’t seem to have meant much in recent weeks as his yard totals haven’t exactly been great. Nyheim Hines seems to have been their main threat for scoring touchdowns and has been pretty good through the air for them, he’s scored in 2 of the 4 games and with them likely trailing tonight I’d expect him to get a lot of the ball. His combined line is 44.5 on Bet365, 52.5 on PP at better odds. Tonight also sees the return of Robert Turbin from his PED suspension, they seemed to like him being the goal-line back when he played last year and if they get close enough I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in there again and 17/2 (Betfair) 8/1 Betway seems priced about right given the unknown on him.
Oh, Andrew Luck, haven’t even mentioned him yet. He threw a ridiculous amount last week, 62 attempts, 40 completions for a career-high 464 yards and 4 TDs. He’s still not back, but he’s thrown a lot in their home games, actually the second most attempts in the league, and they don’t seem too fussed about it. He’s not topped 200 yards in the two road games they’ve played though and if he is sore at all on his shoulder then this game probably comes too soon for him, but with them probably chasing he should have a fair few attempts tonight
The Patriots head into this having replied to their critics by smashing the Dolphins last week on offense and defense, they held Tannehill to 100 yards and restricted them to around 50 yards on the ground as well.
They welcome back Julian Edelman this week from his suspension and his return should help the passing game as it gives another body to cover, the passing game really hasn’t been great in his absence, it was hoped (by myself an many other fantasy football players) that Chris Hogan would have stepped up but he has been pretty much useless without Edelman there. My one hope is that Brady having his favourite guy back gives Hogan more freedom, but time will tell there. Phillip Dorsett has a couple of TDs so far but really isn’t the quality that New England need despite a nice catch in the endzone last week. Cordarelle Patterson is a gadget player who took advantage of broken coverage to scamper in for a 55-yarder last week as well (He had 3 receptions for 54 yards last week after a long of 55…) With Gronk carrying a knock, the player to look for is physical phenom Josh Gordon in his second game since moving from the Browns. He had a contested catch last week hauling in both targets last week. If Edelman is back immediately to his pre-injury/suspension best then Gordon could have a big game.
Now, a lot of the passing game probably depends on the health of Rob Gronkowski, he’s officially questionable with an ankle injury tonight, but will play. He’s only scored once this year and I’m officially not backing him tonight (so as my season has gone so far he will probably score 3) I just can’t back him with the injury on a short week.
Running back is looking a lot more simple than it was at the start of the season, with Hill and Burkhead on IR it’s the Sony Michel and James White show. Michel had a lot of carries last week, topped 100 yards and found the end zone for the first time in his rookie season. He looked good last week, I wouldn’t expect him to get 25 carries this week, and the line of 17.5 is a touch too high for me, I was hoping for 15.5 as Kareem Hunt was on Monday. James White had himself a day last week with 2 TDs, on rushing, and one receiving. he had an equal 8 and 8 last week, with 44 yards on the ground and 68 through the air alongside Michel. He’s scored receiving TDs in 3 of their 4 games so far this year and is very short tonight at a best of 6/5 (as low as 4/7 at PP) his line is 66.5 at Evens on PP. That’s pretty tempting.
That Brady fella isn’t bad at football. In his 12 TNF games in his career, he has a 107.7 QB rating with 25 TDs and 3 INTs. I do expect the Colts pass rush to get to Brady, and he’s actually thrown and interception in 3 of their 4 games so far this season. But Edelman is back. I think it’s a watching brief for me on their passing game today, assumption is the mother of all fuck ups, and assuming Edelman is instantly back to brilliant is probably a bad idea.
I can’t see past a Patriots win, they’ll probably cover, but I wouldn’t touch a double digit spread, that number is rising as well, 10.5 and at 11 in places. They’re 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a double-digit home favourite and also 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games. (Avg winning margin: 16.22)
- Nyheim Hines anytime – 3/1 (WillHill) – 2 points
- Hines 2+ – 25/1 (PP) – 0.5 pt (on powerprices at time of writing)
Skybet have their request a bet offer on again, stake £10 get a free fiver.
- If you’re in the ESPN Pickem league don’t forget to make your selections tonight!
- If you’re on facebook and want to talk betting then join my facebook group – https://www.facebook.com/groups/NFLBetting/
- Top 2 Draftkings league is back for the 4th week, get entered now so I don’t have to chase it up over the weekend! – https://www.draftkings.co.uk/draft/contest/61131577
Good luck with whatever you’re on tonight!
TouchdownTips 
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