We had a night of profit on Monday, I’d almost forgotten what that felt like, if you had a spreadex account you’d have got 6/1 on Trequan Smith scoring anytime, and in fairness if you’d read the start of the post you may have got 2 or more at 20/1 on Skybet or 25/1 on PP. Either way, Smith smashed it for the Saints and brought us at least 4 points profit, for me, it was 10 with the spreadex bet!
This game is interesting. The NFC East obviously provided the Superbowl winners last year with these Philadelphia Eagles, but this year is looking like the worst division in football. Any of these teams could still win it as they’ve all been dogshit. Frankly. Amazingly after 5 games it’s led by the Redskins at 2-2.
Thursday night is always a bit of a challenge to pick, they’re usually pretty weird games. However this year the home team has won all of them which is a good omen for the Giants.
This game opened with the Eagles as 3 point favourites, whether it’s the money or team news that Lane Johnson is out, it’s now in to them being just 1 point favourites. Either way, the stats on TNF home teams AND home underdogs make a convincing case for the Giants winning tonight.
It’s been a long time since the reigning Superbowl champions have finished with a losing record, but that’s looking like it could happen with the Eagles this year, they’ve been hard to call this year so far whether it’s been with Foles or Wentz under center. The offensive line hasn’t been what it was last year and if Lane Johnson is out it looks even weaker. In fact in the 3 games since Wentz has been back they’ve allowed 27 QB hits. That’s not good for a guy coming off a serious knee injury.
Speaking of which, Wentz has been pretty good since his return, throwing for 5 TDs and just the 1 INT, and going for over 300 yards in 2 of the 3, as well as rushing a little in each of them as well, 5 attempts for 26 in the last match, his rushing line is anything from 14.5 at 4/5 on 365, to 17.5 at 10/11 on Skybet tonight. The Giants are one of the worst teams in in the league defending rushing QBs but I think I’ll take the shorter odds and the lower line at bet365 on this – Carson Wentz o14.5 rushing yards – 4/5 (365) – 2pts. I think he’ll probably go over 266.5 passing yards on Sky, but I’m not as confident on that one.
Running back is an interesting area from a betting perspective now that Jay Ajayi is out injured. My thoughts are that one of Corey Clement (15/8) or Wendell Smallwood (2/1) will score tonight, and I’ll be honest, I’m not sure which one i’d even lean towards tbh. Josh Adams is the third RB there and they do like to mix up the committee, but he only played on 2 snaps last week, so I’m not sure I’ll have anything on him at all, although the price differential from 3/1 to 12/1 is quite something! Worringly Paddypower seem to have significantly cut their 2+ scorer market. He’s 13/1 anytime and JUST 55/1 on there, that would usually be 375/1+
Wide receiver runs through Alshon Jeffery now that he and Wentz are back together, he should have a decent game and his 56.5 yards on 365 should be beaten, I’m not massively confident though so I’ll be passing. Nelson Agholor has become hard to trust in the passing game seemingly since the return of Jordan Matthews in the slot, 24,22 and 45 in the last 3 games isn’t anything I want to go near. The same can be said for Jordan Matthews, I won’t be touching anything to do with him.
The one guy in the passing game to take the over on is Zach Ertz, since Wentz’s return he’s had 10,14 and 11 targets with 5,10,10 receptions for 73,110 and 112 yards. So it’s safe to assume that he’ll hit over 68.5 on PP at evens. Dallas Goedert is their other TE who is a bit of a weapon, he’s only had 2 targets in each of the last 2 games so I can’t advise him. If he was 14-16/1 I would have given a little suggestion, but at 4/1 it’s nowhere near for me.
Their defense is very good against the run but struggles against pass catchers which I’ll get into more in a minute!
The Giants have so much offensive talent which at the moment seems to be hamstrung by their QB and offensive line. I can’t blame it all on Eli.
Eli has struggled to throw downfield and as happens with a lot of older QBs doesn’t seem to be able to get over the fear of turning the ball over, he’s not risking any throws at all. That’s a big worry for their team but is probably good news for Sterling Shepard in the slot.
Sterling Shepard in the slot should have himself a good game, especially at home, he’s hit over 75 in his last three games, so a line of 59.5 at 10/11 on Skybet looks like a sensible bet against this poor Eagles secondary. I’ll be honest I’m even tempted to take on Odell Beckham despite his big line of 86.5 – As it happens I think he’ll probably top it, but that’s too high of a line for me to be taking, especially when the Sterling line seems so much more tempting. They’ve also got Cody Lattimer and Jawill Davis, neither of whom I have really heard much about, but they’ve been on the field as WR3s on occasion. If they were 20s I’d be a little tempted to have a little punt, but 8/1 and 12/1 aren’t big enough for me.
They have an elite talent at running back with Saquon Barkley, he got a TD through the air and one on the ground last week, and has gone over 100 combined yards in all of his first 5 games this season, and now has 5 TDs in 5 games. Unfortunately I can’t judge where his yards will be coming from, so I won’t be taking rushing yards by themselves and again, while I think he’ll top 100 combined yards it’s another I don’t feel confident enough to take. 19/20 on Unibet for anytime would probably be sensible though.
Not much point in mentioning tight end really, Rhett Ellison is there for Evan Engram at 5/1, he scored in the game he came in for him, but I can’t trust him.
I think the Giants win here, the record on Thursday night football tells us that all the home teams win this year and the line of 44.5 for the total is quite low given that the average points scored in games this year is nearer 48.
- Carson Wentz o14.5 rushing yards – 4/5 (365) – 2pts
- Zach Ertz 68.5 receiving yards – 1/1 (PP) – 2pts
- Sterling Shepard o59.5 receiving yards – 10/11 (Skybet) – 2pts
No big odds, but none of the TD prices jump out to me
I don’t record the Skybet RaBs on my profit/loss, but I’m usually asked for opinions on them when they have their £5 offer on!
Usually I pick a short one that will pay for the other two, hopefully.
- Giants +3.5 and Barkley 100+ Scrimmage yards follows the stats coming into this game at 2/1
- 44+ points & Z.Ertz 66+ Receiving Yards
- NY Giants to win -3.5, Wentz & Manning 300+ Pass. Yards each, Beckham Jr & Barkley both to score a TD – 50/1
Are my 3 for the night, two fivers and the free fiver on the big one!
Good luck with whatever you go for tonight!